Economic Trends and Florida s Competitive Position presented to Florida Department of Economic Opportunity Strategic Plan Development Meeting

Transcription

1 Economic Trends and Florida s Competitive Position presented to Florida Department of Economic Opportunity Strategic Plan Development Meeting presented by John Kaliski Cambridge Systematics, Inc. November 29, 2011

2 Presentation Outline Current realities Future trends How do we compete? Where do we stand? Source: Florida Trend. 2

3 Recession Erased Job Gains of the Past Decade 1.20 Employment, Index 2000= U.S. FLORIDA Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics. 3

4 A Deeper Recession than Competitor States 15% 12% 9% 6% 3% 0% -3% -6% -9% -12% U.S. FLORIDA California New York Texas GAIN - Jan 2003 to Peak LOSS - Peak to Trough RECOVERY - Trough to Mid-2011 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics. 4

5 Per Capita Income Slipping Behind U.S. Average Thousands of $2010 $42 $41 $40 $39 $38 $37 $36 $35 $ U.S. Florida Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. 5

6 Net Domestic Migration Has Resumed Thousands Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey. 6

7 A New Economy Global Markets Source: Goldman Sachs,

8 A New Economy Global Activity Centers Global Population Centers Global Economic Centers Source: WhosYourCity.com. 8

9 A New Economy Competing as Regions and Megaregions Source: America

10 How Do We Compete? Florida then Low-cost labor Production Location and land Low cost of living Natural resources Individual communities Florida Now World-class talent Innovation Global connections Quality places Sustainable environment Competitive regions 10

11 Where Do We Stand? 11

12 Talent Supply and Education Educational Attainment Key Driver of Jobs and Income Unemployment Rate 2009 Median Earnings 6.0% $48,639 Bachelor s Degree or Higher 9.7% $29,521 Associate s Degree or Some College 13.4% $23,470 High School Diploma Only 18.3% $17,528 Less than High School Graduate Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey,

13 Talent Supply and Education Can We Provide the Workforce for the Future? students in a 9 th grade class graduate from high school continue to college within two years earn college credit within two years Source: Florida Board of Education

14 Talent Supply and Education STEM Skills of Critical Importance Source: The Florida Scorecard; STEM Florida, Inc. 14

15 Innovation and Economic Development Changing Industry Composition Innovation & Technology Tourism Construction Business and Personal Travel Community Development Agriculture Global Trade and Logistics Agriculture Financial and Professional Services Past Future? 15 15

16 Innovation and Economic Development Can We Expand Our Global Role? $100 $90 $80 Florida Share of Total U.S. Export Value 4.4% $94 B $70 $60 $50 3.7% $55 B $40 $30 $26 B $20 $10 $ Florida Origin Export Value 2015 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 16

17 Innovation and Economic Development Can We Strengthen Our Innovation Pipeline? Discoveries 2.4% of total U.S. R&D spending (2007) Patents 2.7% of total U.S. patents issued (2010) Licenses 3% of total U.S. university licensing activity (2007) Start-ups 1% of total U.S. venture capital deals (2011, 2 nd Q) Success 5% of INC companies (2011) 17

18 Infrastructure and Growth Leadership Can We Meet Industry Needs? The Good Highway and bridge condition 14 seaports, 19 airports, 2 spaceports Increasing broadband penetration Efficient use of water, energy The Bad Increasing urban congestion Limited transit use Rural connectivity Uncertainty about air- and water-quality standards 18

19 Infrastructure and Growth Leadership Transportation System Cannot Meet Future Demand Source: Florida Department of Transportation. 19

20 Infrastructure and Growth Leadership Development Where Are We Going? Developed Land Conservation Land Source: 1000 Friends of Florida. 20

21 Infrastructure and Growth Leadership Development Where Could We Go? 21

22 Business Climate and Competitiveness Is Florida Competitive? 4 th ranked in net new business relocations, 2010 Source: Dun & Bradstreet. 22

23 Business Climate and Competitiveness No Longer a Low-Cost State 41 st Overall cost of doing business (CNBC, 2011) 73% Growth in average health insurance premium per enrolled employee, (Kaiser Family Foundation) 6.3% Effective business tax rate as percent of GDP, up from 4.9% in 2007 (Council on State Taxation) 23

24 Business Climate and Competitiveness Key Issues for Growing Businesses in Central Florida 24

25 Civic and Governance Systems Are We Able to Invest in the Future? 4 th Lowest per capita state and local government employment per capita (U.S. Census, 2009) 7.9% Tax supported debt as percentage of revenues in 2009, up from 5% in 2006 (Florida Division of Bond Finance) 53% Increase in number of nonprofit organizations, (National Center for Charitable Statistics) 25

26 Civic and Governance Systems Is the Public Sector s Role Focused? 26

27 Civic and Governance Systems Can the Public Sector Match the Regional/Global Scale of Business? 1411 Municipalities 67 Counties ~ 112 Economic development organizations ~ 52 Convention and visitors bureaus 28 Fixed route transit systems 26 Metropolitan planning organizations 24 Regional workforce boards 11 Regional planning councils 8 Economic regions 5 Water management districts 781 Community development special districts 27

28 Quality of Life and Quality Places Is Florida a Destination? Internal Revenue Service 2008 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 28

29 Quality of Life and Quality Places Is Florida a Destination? BETTER 12% SAME 42% WORSE 45% Is Florida better or worse off than 5 years ago? Will Florida be better or worse 5 years from now? BETTER 31% SAME 37% WORSE 28% Source: Leadership Florida, 2011 Sunshine State Survey. 29

30 Quality of Life and Quality Places Is Florida Attractive? 16% Floridians living in poverty (U.S. Census, 2010) 38% Floridians spending more than 30% of income on homeownership costs (U.S. Census, 2011) 83% Floridians who consider themselves healthy (Center for Disease Control, 2010) 30

31 Starting Point Existing Plans 31 31

32 Resource Materials Plans Consulted for Inventory and Analysis Inventory: Vision and Goal Statements in Existing Statewide Plans Inventory: Strategy Statements in Existing Statewide Plans» Talent Supply and Education Pillar» Innovation and Economic Development Pillar» Infrastructure and Growth Leadership Pillar» Business Climate and Competitiveness Pillar» Civic and Governance Systems Pillar» Quality of Life and Quality Places Pillar Comparison of Governor s Plans to the Six Pillars 32

33 Starting Point Existing Plans 33

34 Questions? Barbara Foster, Florida Department of Economic Opportunity» John Kaliski, Cambridge Systematics, Inc»