State Profile on Job Creation and Economic Growth. Colorado

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3 State Profile on Job Creation and Economic Growth Colorado

4 NATIONAL GOVERNORS ASSOCIATION CHAIR S INITIATIVE Growing State Economies Growing State Economies, the National Governors Association Chair s Initiative, is designed to provide governors and other state policymakers with better tools to assess the economic environment in their state and with better strategies to improve it. The initiative focuses on understanding what helps entrepreneurs and startup businesses become fast-growing companies that can compete globally and what policies support growth for startups. The NGA State Profile on Job Creation and Economic Growth provides a set of measures that contain information for governors and policymakers to assist in efforts to understand three things: Where Jobs are Coming From: Are jobs in the state coming from young and small firms, being developed within large firms, or coming out of particular industry sectors? Who are the Entrepreneurs and Business Owners: Are entrepreneurs and business owners coming from universities? Are local entrepreneurs and businesses receiving capital to grow their companies and invest in new technologies and products? What are Likely Future Sources of Business Growth: From which industries are new business formation and business expansion likely to emerge? To prepare the state profiles, NGA has partnered with Collaborative Economics Inc., and the Edward Lowe Foundation. 2

5 Colorado s Economy Since the mid-1990s, the primary driver of new jobs in Colorado has been the expansion of existing firms. The strongest growth occurred in knowledge-based services, complemented by strong gains in measures of commercialization and innovation. New jobs are coming from existing, expanding firms in knowledge-based services. Existing firms expanding their workforce and operations were the chief source of new jobs over the past decade. Firms generated an average of 39,000 net new jobs each year, creating an average of 277,000 new jobs while losing an average of 238,000 each year since Of all new jobs created: Existing firms accounted for 65 percent of total job creation 179,000 jobs each year; Startups accounted for 33 percent of total job creation 92,000 jobs each year; and Relocations accounted for 2 percent of total job creation 6,000 jobs each year. Colorado s innovation and commercialization has shown strong progress over the long-term, despite recent drops in venture capital investment and patent registrations. Commercialization of research is growing as academic licensing with industry outpaces the region and nation. Small business innovation research (SBIR) awards continue to outpace both the region and the nation. Significant gains have been made in venture capital investment in industrial/energy, while total investment is decreasing. Patents are dominated by information technology services. Despite an overall drop, patent registrations related to chemical materials and health are increasing. Colorado s talent base is expanding due largely to growth in home-grown talent. Science and engineering talent increased by 7 percent with both home-grown talent and talent from outside the nation making a contribution. Foreign-born talent is increasing across all occupations, but lags behind the nation. 3

6 Colorado s Jobs Are Coming From... Existing, expanding firms Existing firms expanding their workforce and operations were the chief source of new jobs over the past decade. Change in Net Employment, By Source (In Thousands) Move Ins Job Creation Job Losses Expansions (added workforce) Openings (new branches) Start Ups Closures Contractions Move Outs Note: See Appendix for detailed data table and category descriptions. *Firm is used as a general term for establishment. For more information please see the appendix....in knowledge-based services Long-term job growth has been strong in management services, education, health care and professional, scientific and technical services. Management services also displayed growth during the recession. Management & Admin Support Svcs (290) Mining (33) Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting (27) Education & Health Services (431) Wholesale & Retail Trade (428) Professional, Scientific & Technical Svcs (261) Other Services (except Public Admin) (148) Construction (208) Arts, Entertainment & Food Services (265) Utilities (15) Information (97) Finance, Insurance & Real Estate (224) Manufacturing (193) Transportation & Warehousing (65) Total Employment (2848) Growth Sectors 2009 Employment (Thousands) Colorado (Employment) ge ge % Change % Change United States (Employment) -50% 0% 50% 100% -50% 150% 0% 50% 100% 150% 4

7 And in small and mid-size firms more than 10 years old. Firms that have existed for more than 10 years displayed growth, expanding their workforce and operations in the long-term despite some fluctuation during the recession. Firms that have existed for more than 20 years performed best, increasing employment even as the larger economy struggled in Employment Growth By Age of Firm Colorado (Total Employment in Thousands) 1,200 1, % -32% +88% % +122% Years 6-10 Years Years Years More than 20 Years Small and mid-size firms (2-99) account for most of the growth, while those who identify as self-employed increased by 161 percent. Employment has declined in firms with more than 500 employees. Employment Growth By Size of Firm Colorado (Total Employment in Thousands) 1, % 1, % % -20% % 0 Self Employed (1) 2-9 Jobs Jobs Jobs 500+ Jobs 5

8 Long-Term Job Growth Trends Despite recessionary job losses, employment has increased steadily in the state over the long-term. Even at the height of the recession in 2010, Colorado s unemployment rate was below the region and the nation. To get back to 2008 s peak employment rates, Colorado would have to recover 167,300 jobs. Employment Colorado (In Millions) Unemployment Rate Colorado West United States Recession 3/01-11/ Recession 12/07-6/ Recession 3/01-11/ Recession 12/07-6/09 Colorado was able to recover faster than the nation after the 2001 recession before experiencing serious job losses in 2009 After the 2001 recession, Colorado was able to offset job destruction with job creation from 2004 to In 2009, similar to the rest of the nation, Colorado experienced a sharp increase in job destruction. Total Job Creation & Destruction Colorado (In Thousands) 450 Job Creation 400 Job Destruction Recession 12/07-6/09 Total Job Creation & Destruction United States (In Millions) 25 Job Creation Job Destruction Recession 12/07-6/ Recession 3/01-11/ Recession 3/01-11/

9 On average, job creation was driven by only 15 percent of firms each year since Colorado created 39,000 net new jobs on average each year between 1995 and Of the 277,000 jobs created on average each year, existing firms accounted for 65 percent, startups accounted for 33 percent, and relocations accounted for 2 percent. Annual Average Job Creation for Firms (In Thousands) Average Size New Jobs (In Thousands) % of Job Creation Starts Ups Existing Firms Openings (new branches) Expansions (added workforce) Relocations to State Total Of all firms in the state* 75%...75% Show no Change in Employment...Show no Change in Employment... 15%...Open or Grow 10%...Contract or Close Annual Average Job Destruction for Firms (In Thousands) Average Size Jobs Lost (In Thousands) % of Job Destruction Closures Contractions Relocations out of State Total *Estimates are an annual average for the time period 1995 to

10 Colorado s Entrepreneurs are... Increasingly coming from new groups Female business owners increased 3 percent in total share from 2002 to 2007, but do not equal their representation in the state. Nonwhite entrepreneurs increased 3 percent in total distribution from 2002 to 2007 in part because of a two fold increase in Asian business owners and would need to double to reflect the state s population. Business Owners By Race Business Owners By Gender Entrepreneurship Population Female 35% 38% 50% 50% Male 65% 62% 50% 50% Entrepreneurship Population White 95.1% 91.7% 82.9% 83.5% Asian 2.4% 5.4% 2.4% 2.7% Black 1.6% 1.7% 3.7% 3.9% Other 1.0% 1.2% 11.0% 9.9% Note: The U.S. Census Bureau classifies Hispanic as an ethnicity and not a race. Hispanic origins may be present in any race category. Launching startups from universities Startups launching from universities increased from 2 to 15 in Colorado over the last fourteen years, putting them ahead of national and regional averages, but still far short of the top 10 states. Start Ups Initiated from Universities Colorado West Average U.S. Average Top 10 States' Averages

11 Academic licensing per gross domestic product (GDP) has picked up in recent years, outperforming both the nation and the region since Academic Licensing per $1 Billion GDP Colorado United States West Top 10 States And gaining in SBIR and STTR awards. Small business innovation research (SBIR) and technology transfer (STTR) funding continues to outpace the nation, region, and even the top 10 states. Small Business Innovation Research & Small Business Technology Transfer Awards (SBIR/STTR) Funding per $1 Million GDP Colorado West United States Top 10 States

12 Future Sources of Business Growth GDP per employee is rising in Colorado. Productivity per worker has increased in recent years, tracking the nation but trailing the region. GDP per Employee In Thousands of Dollars Colorado West United States Despite an overall drop, venture capital (VC) investment is soaring in Industrial/Energy industries. In the period, industrial/energy investment increased 213 percent, followed by a 17 percent increase in biotechnology. Venture Capital Investment by Industry In Millions of Dollars % Change Industrial/Energy Biotechnology Software IT Services Medical Devices & Equipment Financial Services Media & Entertainment Networking & Equipment Electronics/Instrumentation Other Retailing & Distribution Telecommunications Computers & Peripherals TOTAL 2,036 1,961-4 Data from Moody s Analytics Inc. 10

13 Colorado is registering more patents in chemical materials and health, although total patents have fallen Overall patent registrations have dropped 4 percent, while patents related to chemical materials and health have made recent gains. IT patents remained significant, representing 31 percent of total patents. Patent Registrations By Technology Area % Change Computers, Data Processing & Information Storage 1,830 1,710-7 Communications Measuring, Testing & Precision Instruments Electricity & Heating/Cooling Chemical & Organic Compounds/Materials Health Chemical Processing Technologies Manufacturing, Assembling & Treating Construction & Building Materials Transportation/Vehicles Food, Plant & Animal Husbandry Furniture & Receptacles Dispensing & Material Handling Teaching & Amusement Devices Other TOTAL 5,728 5,481-4 In biotechnology Colorado has experienced a steeper drop in biotechnology patents than the nation and the West since Biotechnology Patent Registrations By Primary Inventors % Change Colorado West Average U.S. Average And increasing in clean technology. Clean technology patent registrations are diversifying. While patents related to water declined, new patent industries such as batteries and fuel cells are emerging. Clean Technology Patents % Change Water Batteries Solar Energy Fuel Cells Energy Infrastructure Hybrid Systems Wind Energy Geothermal Energy Hydro Power TOTAL

14 Future Sources of Entrepreneurship Colorado s science & engineering (S&E) talent is growing with nearly two-thirds of its talent base coming from other states. Colorado s total S&E talent increased 7 percent in the last decade from 174,000 to 186,800 based on a 28 percent increase in home-grown talent and a 12 percent increase in those born outside of the U.S. S&E Talent by Place of Origin In Thousands % +12% +<1% +28% Born Outside of U.S. Born in Rest of U.S. Born in Colorado Foreign-born talent is increasing across all occupations, though at a slower rate than the nation. Colorado s foreign-born talent increased from 10 percent to 13 percent across all occupations. This is behind the national trend for the past decade. Percentage of Employed Talent who are Foreign-Born Colorado U.S. Colorado U.S. S&E Occupations All Occupations

15 Why is this important? Jobs are coming from In any given year, new firms will open their doors and old firms will close. This business churn is the result of startups, expansions, closures, mergers, and firms moving locations. The movement of firms to and from a state provides some insight into the continued attractiveness of the state for business. However, more often than not, the expansions of firms already in the state account for a larger share of employment growth. Tracking employment gains and losses is a basic measure of economic health. Shifts in employment across industries suggest structural changes in a state s economic composition. Employment growth and decline across industries can be cyclical, but the permanent changes reflect how the region s industrial mix is changing. Tracking firm growth by age and size in the form of startups and expansions of multi-firm businesses by industry can indicate growing areas of unique strength and competitiveness. Long-term job growth trends Tracking trends in long-term employment helps evaluate the overall economic well-being of the state and its resilience during recessionary periods. Assessing job creation and destruction provides further insight into the effects of the recession on the business life cycle in a state. By taking a deeper look into the dynamics of job creation and destruction, the economic structure of job development in the state can be further analyzed. Entrepreneurs Entrepreneurs are creative risk takers who produce new value and new markets through the commercialization of novel and existing technology, products, and services. Tracking trends in business owners by gender and race reveals who is driving business growth in the state. Results from surveys done by Association of University Technology Managers (AUTM) provide insight into academic technology transfer between local universities and entrepreneurs. The Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) program and the Small Business Technology Transfer (STTR) program provide funding to small innovative companies to spur development and the commercialization of ideas into products and services. Tracking SBIR/STTR funding relative to gross state product offers a comparison to national trends. Future sources of business growth Measuring GDP per employee, or value-added per worker, provides an indicator for the direction of the overall health of an economy. Investment in early-stage technology or established companies can take different forms from different sources such as venture capital (VC). Tracking VC investment represents trends in cash flows into the state for potentially high-value business opportunities. In addition to capital, these flows represent access to talent and other forms of support. The registration of a patent represents the recording of a new idea, technology, or process that has the potential for bearing monetary value for the patent holder. Patent activity in a state can be an indicator of innovative activity as individuals and companies aim to protect potential sources of future income and market competitiveness. As technology advances and states develop new areas of expertise, patenting activity by technology area shifts into new fields, such as biotechnology and clean technology. Future sources of entrepreneurship A high concentration of science and engineering (S&E) talent has been associated with higher value business activities and higher incomes. Tracking S&E talent by place of origin and by percentage of total talent helps to illustrate how well companies and research institutions in a state can source the talent they need to remain competitive. 13

16 APPENDIX JOBS ARE COMING FROM.../ LONG-TERM JOB GROWTH TRENDS... Employment and Firm Analysis Employment and firm data are from the 2010 National Establishment Time Series (NETS) database, prepared by Walls & Associates using Dun & Bradstreet establishment data. Data are aggregated by the Edward Lowe Foundation whose comprehensive establishment Employment Change in Thousands Openings from Start Ups Total Existing Firms Openings (new branches) database is available on YourEconomy.org. Because Expansions (added workforce) the NETS database is based on establishments, it allows for more detailed analysis by industry, size, Closures and age and also allows for an analysis of detailed Contractions establishment dynamics such as openings, closings, Relocations expansions, contractions, as well as moves across state (and county) lines. For the purposes of this profile, Move Ins (to CO) firm is used as a general term for establishment. NETS tracks employment and establishment data for almost every business operating in the United States; including privately-owned and small businesses, establishments in Move Outs (from CO) Net Change in Employment the agricultural sector as well as public and nonprofit organizations. NETS data also covers part time workers, sole-proprietorships, domestic workers and unpaid family members. NETS data analysis in this profile includes the non-commercial sector (educational institutions, post offices, government agencies and other nonprofit organizations). Industry classifications are based on 2-digit North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) codes. A number of sectors have been combined: Wholesale Trade (42) and Retail Trade (44-45); Finance & Insurance (52) and Real Estate, Rental & Leasing (53); Management of Companies & Enterprises (55) and Administrative & Support & Waste Management & Remediation Service (56); Educational Services (61) and Health Care & Social Assistance (62); and Arts, Entertainment & Recreation (71) and Accommodation & Food Services (72). Industry breakouts do not include Public Administration (92) Term Firm Business Start Up Existing Firm Opening (new branch) Expansion (added workforce) Contraction Closure Move In Move Out Net Change in Employment Definition Single entity, representing a standalone firm or a unit of multi-firm business Larger entity, composed of one or more firms New, standalone firm (unrelated to any other firms) Firm that is at least a year old New firm associated with an existing business (multi-firm business) Firm adding employees to their workforce Firm decreasing their workforce Firm that has closed Firm that moves into the state Firm that moves out of the state The difference between Start Ups, Openings, Expansions and Move Ins and Closures, Contractions and Move Outs or Unclassified Service (99) sectors. Sectors total include Public Administration (92) figures. Figures in tables are rounded. Closures include closures from startups. Charts by age and size are snapshots of establishments for a given year, therefore an establishment that began in the one to five years category in 1995 could be found in the 11 to 15 years category in Although this profile only examines broad industry sectors, a next step in examining a state s changing industry mix is to carry out a comprehensive cluster analysis. Such an analysis will reveal specific, unique areas of growing strength in the state s economy which can serve as the basis for engagement with business leaders in order to develop a statewide cluster strategy. ENTREPRENEURS ARE... Business Owners and Population by Race and Gender The Survey of Business Owners (SBO) conducted every five years as part of the Economic Census by the U.S. Census Bureau. Firms were asked to report information about the characteristics of individuals with the largest share of ownership (respondent firms). Detail may not add to total because owners had the option of selecting more than one race and are included in all races they selected. Firm categorized by majority owner s race. The 2002 Entrepreneur Other race category includes American Indian & Alaska Native and Native Hawaiian & Other Pacific Islander. The 2007 Entrepreneur Other race category includes American Indian & Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian & Other Pacific Islander, Native Hawaiian, Guamanian or Chamorro, Samoan, Other Pacific Islander, and Some other race. Population data is derived from the 2002 and 2007 United States Census Bureau, American Community Survey. The 2002 & 2007 Population Other race category includes American Indian & Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian & Other Pacific Islander, Some other race, and Two or more races. 14

17 Startups Initiated from Universities and Academic Licensing per $1 Billion GDP Data are extracted from the Statistics Access for Tech Transfer (STATT) database collected by the Association of University Technology Managers (AUTM) survey from participating academic institutions. Data is reported in fiscal years and is inflation adjusted. Academic Licensing per GDP is calculated by dividing total number of licenses and options executed by GDP. GDP is inflation adjusted into first half 2011 dollars using the U.S. city average Consumer Price Index (CPI) of all urban consumers, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The comparison region is one of the four Regions and Divisions as defined by the U.S. Census Bureau. Note absolute numbers greater than 99 are rounded to the tens place. The top 10 startup states per GDP include: Alabama, Colorado, Indiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, New Mexico, Ohio, Utah, and Vermont. The top 10 academic licensing states per GDP include: North Dakota, Montana, Massachusetts, Utah, Nebraska, Iowa, Oregon, Washington, Arkansas, and North Carolina. The top 10 states are based on 2010 data. Small Business Innovation Research & Small Business Technology Transfer Awards (SBIR/STTR) Data for Small Business Innovation Research and Small Business Technology Transfer (SBIR/STTR) awards are from the U.S. Small Business Administration, Office of Technology Small Business Innovation Research Program. Small businesses must be American-owned and independently operated, for-profit, principal researcher employed by business, and company size limited to 500 employees to participate in the program. Data for phase 1 and phase 2 awards are included in totals. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimates the market value of all final goods and services. GDP data is from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Award values and GDP are inflation adjusted into first half 2011 dollars using the U.S. city average Consumer Price Index (CPI) of all urban consumers, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The comparison region is one of the four Regions and Divisions as defined by the U.S. Census Bureau. FUTURE SOURCES OF BUSINESS GROWTH... GDP per employee GDP per employee is calculated as regional gross domestic product (GDP) divided by total employment. GDP estimates the market value of all final goods and services. Employment data are from Moody s Analytics, economy.com, and measures total number of persons employed. GDP data is from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Award values and GDP are inflation adjusted into first half 2011 dollars using the U.S. city average Consumer Price Index (CPI) of all urban consumers, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The comparison region is one of the four Regions and Divisions as defined by the U.S. Census Bureau. Venture Capital by Industry Data are provided by The MoneyTree Report from PricewaterhouseCoopers and the National Venture Capital Association based on data from Thomson Reuters. Values are inflation-adjusted and reported in first half 2011 dollars using the U.S. city average Consumer Price Index (CPI) of all urban consumers, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Data updated as of November Patent Registrations by Technology Area, Biotechnology Patent Registrations by Primary Inventors and Clean Technology Patents Patent data are provided by the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office, and consists of only Utility patents. Geographic designation is given by the location of the first inventor named on the patent application. Patents include only those patents filed by residents of each region. Technology Areas are based on the Unites States Patent Classification System (USPCS) and grouped according to certain technologies and/or classes. Other includes Apparel, Textiles & Body Adornment and Ammunition & Weapons Analytics developed and performed the search of detailed U.S. patent data from the U.S. Patent & Trade Office based on search criteria defined by Collaborative Economics for the biotechnology technology area as well as the eight technology areas: solar, wind, hydro and geothermal energy generation, batteries, fuel cells, hybrid systems, water, and energy infrastructure. The comparison region is one of the four Regions and Divisions as defined by the U.S. Census Bureau. Note absolute numbers greater than 99 are rounded to the tens place. FUTURE SOURCES OF ENTREPRENEURSHIP... Science & Engineering Talent by Place of Origin & Percentage of Employed Talent who are Foreign-Born Data provided by the United States Census Bureau, 2000 Decennial Census and 2010 American Community Survey Public Use Microdata Samples (PUMS). The category of foreign-born includes people born in U.S. territories/island areas, residents, and naturalized citizens. Individuals were determined by Standard Occupation Code and foreign talent was determined by place of birth. 15

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