1 The Upper Peninsula of Michigan: Opportunities for growth and development in the economy! Prepared on Jan 16, 2009 for Operation Action Upper Peninsula By Tawni Hunt Ferrarini, PhD, Sam M. Cohodas Professor and Director of Center for Economic Education and Entrepreneurship
2 Overview This presentation summarizes the state of the economies of the state and nation. It then places the economy of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan into the context of the state and national wholes. There the strengths, weaknesses, challenges and threats to the fifteen counties of this rural area are identified. Possible opportunities for growth and development are then presented and a conclusion is drawn.
3 The National Economy 2008: A Year of Crisis and Political, Economic and Social Uncertainty Output Falls Unemployment Rises Price Volatility Housing Bubble Stock Market Plummets and Is Volatile Consumer Debt Continues to Rise Interesting Fiscal and Monetary Policies of the Bush Administration and Before Presidential Election Promises to Bring in New Federal Policies Global Uncertainties and Wars (War on Terrorism/Iraq) Discussions of Social Shifts
4 Historical Perspective: Real Output and Income Increase
5 Historical Perspective: Unemployment Changes
6 Housing Prices
7 Stock Prices Standard and Poor s 500 Total Return 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60%
8 Household Debt Rises Household Debt to Disposable Personal Income Ratio 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%
9 Federal Actions Well intended government and Federal Reserve officials Interesting Fiscal and Monetary Policies of the George W. Bush and Previous Administrations Community Re-Investment Act of 1975, 95 Loose Monetary Policies Financial and Auto Bailouts Addressing Special Interests War on Terrorism including Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan New President Elect
10 The Michigan Economy: What Can We Say? The Michigan economy is in its ninth year of decline with the automobile industry leading the way. The auto industry continues to seek federal support to help move through their problems. Kalamazoo MI appears to be bucking state trends. Southwest Michigan First Attracting new businesses, helping existing one shift focus, and tracking activities Innovation Center at Western Michigan University Helps researchers, leaving Pfizer, start up life science companies of their own. Tracks and reports success to the community.
11 The UP Economy Now UP Economic Base 2007: Jobs and Earnings Review which groups of industries drove the UP s regional economy in The primary criteria is: By group that brings in the most dollars into a region and does not just simply circulate existing dollars. Look at 2007 People, Business and Sales Landscape Project the growth patterns based on a 2007* start year, not 2008.
12 2007 Gross Regional Product, Consumption and Investment Area Earnings ($M) Profits ($M) Tax ($M) GRP ($M) Region $5,615.7 $1,750.5 $525.6 $7,891.7 State $261,386.4 $93,905.5 $24,511.8 $379,803.6 Nation $8,854,964.6 $4,036,201.8 $873,558.1 $13,764,724.5 Non-Standard Industries Sales(K) Consumption $5,174,333 Investment $503,187
13 Description 2007 Regional Jobs % Regional Jobs 2007 State Jobs % State Jobs Agriculture, natural resources, and mining 3, % 27, % Construction 6, % 163, % Manufacturing 11, % 621, % Trade, transportation, and utilities 23, % 816, % Information 2, % 64, % Financial activities 4, % 206, % Professional and business services 5, % 579, % Education and health services 14, % 576, % Leisure and hospitality 14, % 403, % Other services 4, % 128, % Government 34, % 641, %
14 2007 Economic Base: Jobs, Earnings, Sales NAICS Sectors That Drive the UP Economy Jobs Earnings(K) Jobs % Earnings % EPW(K) Government 37,784 $1,280,404 30% 33% $34 Manufacturing 20,002 $709,188 16% 18% $35 Residents` Outside Income 16,232 $397,768 13% 10% $25 Visitors 15,117 $279,769 12% 7% $19 Services (Health, Education, Recreation and others) 12,671 $412,807 10% 11% $33 All Other 6,245 $254,758 5% 6% $41 Finance 4,609 $134,984 4% 3% $29 Mining 4,569 $223,206 4% 6% $49 Construction 2,980 $110,658 2% 3% $37 Communications 1,981 $56,246 2% 1% $28 Exogenous Investment 1,503 $46,160 1% 1% $31 Agriculture 621 $17,238 0% 0% $28 Totals 124,314 $3,923,186 $32 Avg
15 2007 UP Economic Base ~ 124,000 Jobs Across the UP
16 UP Economic Base: $3.9 Billion in 2007 Earnings
17 Future Projections Based on Using Previous Production, Consumption and Investments Patterns Holding all fiscal and monetary policies constant Assuming no new financial and/or global uncertainties
18 Some Industries Likely Grow and Expand Job Base While Others Do Not NAICS Code Description 2007 Jobs 2015 Jobs Chang e % Chang e 2007 EPW Local government 23,442 22,149-1,293-6% $30, State government 9,008 9, % $44, General medical and surgical hospitals 5,045 5, % $42, Limited-service eating places 4,612 5, % $9, Full-service restaurants 3,868 3, % $10, Supermarkets and other grocery stores 2,992 2, % $15, Hotels and motels, except casino hotels 2,746 3, % $15, Department stores 2,363 2, % $18, Paper mills 1, ,155-59% $57, Nursing care facilities 1,505 1, % $21,745
19 Replacement Jobs: A key component for finding indemand jobs across the U.P.
21 Current and Long Run Mining Opportunities Expand Iron ore Nickel Zinc, gold, silver and copper mining opportunities are explored.
22 However Between 2007 and 2015: Total Population Is Expected to Decrease By 2% 309,725 in ,559 in ,166 or -2%
23 : EMSI Population Shifts
24 Regional Challenges In 2007, approximately 310,000 live in the region across 10.5 million acres. The majority is of the same ethnicity and race implying it somewhat insulated from the effects of an increasingly diversified global culture. In the knowledge based national economy, the 2007 regional population lags behind the nation and state in its population with some college education and above Population with Some College Education Area Population % of 25+ Cohort Region 110, % State 3,856, % Nation 112,766, % 2007 Population with a Postgraduate Education Area Population % of 25+ Cohort Region 14, % State 638, % Nation 20,408, %
25 Challenges: Continued In-demand jobs are there but there is some concern we may not have the skills, knowledge and work experience needed at this time. Paper wealth has decreased. Credit markets have tightened, and confidence is shaken. Consumer spending will likely continue to drop as credit tightens, unemployment rises and uncertainty and media hype continue to overwhelm us. Businesses continue to adjust production, employment and investment levels. A new government emerges. State economy will likely continue to struggle.
26 Capitalize on UP Strengths and Technologies Relatively diversified regional economy* Rich in natural resources, opening new water and mineral opportunities New and Replacement Positions Need to Be Filled Strong base of educational institutions Area Educational Per 100,000 Institutions People Region 9 institutions 2.91 State Nation 6, Technology makes remote work possible.
27 Choose New Responses to Longstanding Problems: Educate, Collaborate and Network! Educate and Collaborate Educational institutions and businesses work together to identify the skill sets needed by the future workforce. MSU Extension University s Connecting Rural Youth & Rural Enterprise Forum in an Information Based Economy, 28 Mar 09 at NMU Networking Among Leaders and Businesses Actively participate in regional organizations and local efforts committed to economic growth and development like the Economic Club of Marquette County, Operation Action U.P. and others.
28 University-based resources University and college based commitments help ensure that their programs are responsive to the needs of the region. Commercialization and entrepreneurship initiatives at U.P. institutions include: technology transfer, university-industry commercialization programs, entrepreneurship education related to economic development, and economic development/outreach. Bay College M-Tec Bay Mills Community College Finlandia University Gogebic Community College Lake Superior State University Michigan Technological University Northern Michigan University Development professionals prepare workforce investment strategies that involve post-secondary and K-12 schools.
29 Government Join conversations and committees linked to local and state government initiatives. Get involved in the NMU Center for Rural and Local Studies NMU hosted Innovations in Local Government Management Symposium on February 6, 2009 Contact Brian Cherry, for upcoming events.
30 Private Sector: Seize Opportunities to Cluster! Look at businesses that are linked vertically or horizontally in the production chain and/or share common labor pools. That is, identify, evaluate and compare regional clusters and create channels to share resources, information and market knowledge. Cluster growth and decline correlates with the growth and decline of the those industries employing workers found along the same or linked production chains. Health care, Information Technology & Telecommunications, Timber/Logging, Manufacturing, Recreation and Education
31 Capitalize on Regional Resources Work with private individuals, development organizations and chambers of commerce to Revise operational plans to adjust for changes in the economy and government; Determine current value in local, regional and global markets; Identify other firms and businesses in your cluster; Devise an exit strategy.
32 Communicate Workforce Needs Devise Strategic Responses to Layoffs for Re-employment Encourage employees to with Michigan Works! The Job Force if they are gainfully employed, employed but facing unemployment, unemployed or returning to work after being unemployed.
33 Be Active Michigan Works! The Job Force Board (East, Central and West) and the Upper Great Lakes Economic and Workforce Development Summit Functional ~ To establish and implement a regional workforce investment system. Strategic ~ Assess regional global workforce issues based upon local business and industry needs and offer solutions. Convene community leaders to help seek solutions and amass resources to implement them. Operational ~ Establish and control a system of Michigan Works! Service Centers where regional labor exchange and services are offered to any and all regional employers and any and all job seekers.
34 Tap Into Outside Resources Complete online training, get on mailing lists and use the resources provided by the federal government to: proactively seeking new markets engage in innovative action to meet local market needs be able and willing to take strategic risks by venturing into previously unknown markets. Export.gov Small Business Administration s Office of Advocacy
35 Conclusion Unlike the lower peninsula of Michigan, the UP is not directly tied to one industry. Continued analysis of the regional strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats will speed the process by which the regional economy grows and develops within the context of the global economy. Regional and external resources combined with an informed citizenry can capitalize on regional strengths and compensate for existing weaknesses. Strategic and prudent consumption, investment and production decisions can help the region move through economically uncertain times.
36 Action Items for the OAUP Audience Network!!!! Update the websites of your businesses and make others aware of these updates. (Challenge all to do so by September of 2009!) Educate and inspire others to do the same! Participate in the Michigan Upper Peninsula/Wisconsin Border Region Economic Study
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