Council Minutes June 9, :00 a.m.

Transcription

1 Agenda Item #1 07/14/2008 Council Minutes June 9, :00 a.m. REPRESENTATIVES PRESENT Chair, Commissioner Deborah Kynes, City of Dunedin Vice Chair, Commissioner Bill Dodson, City of Plant City Secretary/Treasurer, Commissioner Jack Mariano, Pasco County Past Chair, Mayor Scott Black, City of Dade City Ms. Jane Bittner, Gubernatorial Appointee, Pinellas County Commissioner Woody Brown, City of Largo Mayor Larry Bustle, City of Palmetto Commissioner Linda Chaney, City of St. Pete Beach Ms. Jill Collins, Gubernatorial Appointee, Hillsborough County Deputy Mayor Bob Consalvo, City of New Port Richey Commissioner Larry Crowley, City of South Pasadena Commissioner Ronnie Duncan, Pinellas County Council Member Alison Fernandez, City of Temple Terrace Mr. Julian Garcia, Jr., Gubernatorial Appointee, Hillsborough County Mr. Robert Kersteen, Gubernatorial Appointee, Pinellas County Mr. Harry Kinnan, Gubernatorial Appointee, Manatee County Ms. Angeleah Kinsler, Gubernatorial Appointee, Hillsborough County Councilor Bob Matthews, City of Seminole Council Member Janice Miller, City of Oldsmar Commissioner Bob Minning, City of Treasure Island Mr. Andy Núñez, Gubernatorial Appointee, Pinellas County Councilman Karl Nurse, City of St. Petersburg Vice Mayor Robin Saenger, City of Tarpon Springs Mr. Charles Waller, Gubernatorial Appointee, Pasco County Ms. Laura Woodard, Gubernatorial Appointee, Hillsborough County Commissioner Robert Worthington, City of Gulfport Mr. Todd Pressman, Ex-officio, SWFWMD REPRESENTATIVES ABSENT Commissioner Nina Bandoni, City of Safety Harbor Commissioner Rose Ferlita, Hillsborough County Councilwoman Mary Mulhern, City of Tampa Council Member Carlen Petersen, City of Clearwater Councilman Patrick Roff, City of Bradenton Councilman Ed Taylor, City of Pinellas Park Ms. Barbara Sheen Todd, Gubernatorial Appointee, Pinellas County Ms. Kim Vance, Gubernatorial Appointee, Hillsborough County Commissioner Jane von Hahmann, Manatee County Mr. Earl Young, Gubernatorial Appointee, Pasco County Mr. Bob Clifford, Ex-officio, Florida Department of Transportation Mr. Mike Downs, Alt., Ex-officio, Department of Environmental Protection Ms. Michelle Miller, Ex-officio, Enterprise Florida 1

2 OTHERS PRESENT Shawn College, Exec. Planner, Hillsborough Planning Commission John Healey, Planner, Hillsborough County Trisha Neasman, Planner, SWFWMD Ivana Kajtezovic, Environ. Planner, Tampa Bay Water Dan Hoah, Meterologist, NWS John Bowers, Wilson Miller Marion Hale, Partner, Johnson Pope Ty Maxey, Planner, EHA Al Davis, Citizen, Gulfport Cindy Davis, Gulfport Citizen Mark Barnebey, Attorney, Kirk Pinkerton Scott Rudacik, Attorney, Kirk Pinkerton Troy Salisbury, Planner, PM, CPH Eng. Dan Moyer, P.M., CPH Eng. John Melendez, Transportation Dir. Mgr., CPH Engineers Catherine Porter, Long Range Planning Manager, Clearwater Jason Mickel, Senior Planner, SWFWMD STAFF PRESENT Mr. Manny Pumariega, Executive Director Mr. Donald Conn, Legal Counsel Ms. Suzanne Cooper, Principal Planner Ms. Lori Denman, Administrative Assistant/Recording Secretary Mr. John Jacobsen, Accounting Manager Ms. Wren Krahl, Manager of Administration/Public Information Mr. Bill Lofgren, Principal Planner Mr. John Meyer, Principal Planner Mr. Greg Miller, Senior Planner Mr. Patrick O Neil, Senior Planner Mr. Brady Smith, Senior Planner Ms. Jessica White, Senior Planner Ms. Erika Wiker, Planner Ms. Kim Williams, Communications/Graphics Coordinator Mr. Avera Wynne, Planning Director Call to Order - Chair Kynes The June 9, 2008 Regular Meeting of the Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council was called to order by Chair Kynes at 10:05 a.m. The Invocation was given by Mr. Andy Núñez, followed by the pledge of allegiance. Roll Call - Recording Secretary A quorum was present. There were no voting conflicts. Announcements Chair Kynes Congratulations were provided to Mr. Julian Garcia, Jr., Mr. Bob Kersteen, and Ms. Barbara Sheen Todd for their gubernatorial re-appointments. A special welcome was given to new gubernatorial appointees: 2

3 Mr. Harry Kinnan, Manatee County and school board member; Mr. Laura Woodard, Hillsborough County and President of the Grass Roots Marketing Group; Mr. Earl Young, Pasco County and commercial banker with Florida Tradition s Bank. Ms. Jill Collins was provided a special welcome back to the Council as a gubernatorial appointee from Hillsborough County and a partner with Barclay Partners. Who s Your City by Richard Florida was distributed to Council members. This book was distributed to attendees at the recent Regional Leadership Conference and is about how the creative economy is making where to live the most important decision of your life. Located in Council folders were the Financial Disclosure Statements for Council members to sign and return to staff. The 2008 Official Hurricane Guide and the current edition of the Regional Directory were distributed. Special thanks were provided to Betti Johnson for her work on the Hurricane Guide and to Kim Williams for her talents and graphic designs/layouts. 1. Approval of Minutes - Secretary/Treasurer Mariano The minutes from the May 12, 2008 meeting were approved. (Duncan/Black) 2. Budget Committee -Secretary/Treasurer Mariano The Financial Report for the period ending 04/30/08 was approved. (Duncan/Miller) 3. Consent Agenda - Chair Kynes APPROVED THE FOLLOWING CONSENT AGENDA ITEMS: 1. Department of Community Affairs (DCA) Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council (TBRPC) Annual 2008/2009 contract which provides funding in the approximate amount of $266,530 to fulfill numerous statutory responsibilities under Florida Statute Chapters 163, 186, 252, 380 and FY contract between the DCA and the TBRPC for operation of the Tampa Bay Local Emergency Planning Committee (LEPC), District VIII. Since 1988 with the passage of the Emergency Planning and Community Right to Know Act (EPCRA), which created Local Emergency Planning Committees and State Emergency Response Commissions, the Tampa Bay LEPC has operated under the basic annual contract between the DCA and the TBRPC, with LEPC specifications detailed in Attachment A-2 of the old contract. Again this year a separate contract between DCA and the TBRPC for LEPC operations is offered. Funding for the LEPC remains unchanged at $40,909. The Scope of Work for the LEPC remains unchanged and Quarterly Reports for the LEPC will go directly to the Division of Emergency Management, rather than be included in the TBRPC Quarterly Report which is submitted to DCA. B. Intergovernmental Coordination & Review (IC&R) Program 1. IC&R Reviews by Jurisdiction 2. May 2008 IC&R Database 3. IC&R # Tampa Electric Company 10-year Site Plan, Hillsborough & Pasco Counties and the City of Oldsmar 4. IC&R # Progress Energy Florida 10-year Site Plan, Pinellas & Pasco Counties 3

4 5. IC&R # Florida Power & Light Company 10-year Site Plan, Manatee & Pasco Counties C. DRI Development Order Reports (DOR) - None D. DRI Development Order Amendment Reports (DOAR) DRI # 252 Cypress Creek Town Center, Pasco County E. Notice of Proposed Change (NOPC) Reports 1. DRI # 74 River Ridge, Pasco County 2. DRI # 141 Westshore Areawide, City of Tampa 3. DRI # 190 University Commons, Manatee County 4. DRI # 246 Suncoast Crossings, Pasco County F. Annual Report Summaries (ARS) / Biennial Report Summaries (BRS) 1. DRI # 157 Trinity Communities, RY , Pinellas/Pasco Counties 2. DRI # 161 University Research & Development Park, RY , City of Tampa 3. DRI # 236 Riviera Dunes, RY , City of Palmetto 4. DRI # 207 Wolf Creek Branch S/D, RY , Hillsborough County G. DRI Status Report Information Only. H. Local Government Comprehensive Plan Amendments Reviewed 1. DCA # 08-1, Manatee County 2. DCA # 08-1ARA, City of Clearwater 3. DCA # 08-1AR, City of Largo (adopted) 4. DCA # 08-1ARB, City of Clearwater 5. DCA # 08RWSP-1, City of St. Pete Beach (adopted) 6. DCA # 08ER-1, City of Safety Harbor (adopted) 7. DCA # 8ER-1, Pinellas County (adopted) 8. DCA # 07PEFE-1, Hillsborough County (adopted) The Consent Agenda was approved. (Black/Kersteen) 4. Item(s) Removed from Consent Agenda and Addendum Item(s) - None Council members shall notify Chairman of any items they wish to be pulled from the Consent Agenda. These items will be discussed and voted on separately after the remainder of the Consent Agenda is approved. 5. Review Item(s) or Any Other Item(s) for Discussion - None Before the first speaker was introduced the Chair mentioned that during the Hurricane Season, Council s policy regarding cancellation of meetings due to a Tropical Storm or Hurricane will be included in each mail out. This information is also available on the web site: 6. A. Hurricane Season 2008 Briefing Daniel Noah, Warning Coordination Meteorologist, with the Tampa Bay National 4

5 Weather Service (NWS) Office in Ruskin, provided a briefing on NWS instant messaging capabilities, a review of the 2007 Hurricane Season, and predictions for the 2008 Hurricane Season. The National Weather Service is a part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Our warnings mean little if you don t hear them or don t know how to respond. The NWS works closely with local county emergency management and the broadcast and print media to get the message out. If you want a quick look at what is going to happen over the next couple of days you can go to and click on the graphic icon. Weather radios are in only about 14% of homes and not only warn of weather emergencies, but also natural and man made hazards. Your emergency management office can send in the warning request through state radio. We will type the message and send it out. The chance of Tampa Bay having a major hurricane (category 3, 4 or 5) is one half of one percent each year, or about a 1 in 200 chance. The last time it happened was in The time before that was In 1848 we had 2 major hurricanes hit Tampa Bay in one year. The Cone of Uncertainty and the Skinny Black Line is formed by enclosing the area swept out by a set of circles along the forecast tract at 12, 24, 36 hours, etc. The circle gets bigger as you go out because the forecast error becomes greater. That means sometimes the hurricane might be outside of the cone of uncertainty. The thing we don t like about this product is it doesn t tell you how big the eye wall is and it doesn t tell you how big the storm is. It only tells you where the center of the storm is. Charley was a pretty well forecasted hurricane but the perception is that it took a hard right hook. Perception is reality, but keep in mind when you are looking at a forecast - especially if they parallel our coast, it is going to be much harder to convince the public to get out of harms way. If you look at how small the angle forecast was, it was less than 10 degrees. If it had gone 10 degrees more to the left it would have made landfall in the Big Bend area of Florida. In dealing with uncertainty we have to deal with how big a storm is. The average storm watch and warning length is about miles. What that means is 20-33% of the people in the warning area will receive hurricane force winds. How do you get people to respond to a 20-33% chance? What we are trying to communicate, besides the skinny black line, is the probability of hurricane force winds. We ran statistics for Charley when it was off Cuba and both Tampa and Punta Gorda had about a 30% chance of hurricane force winds. Does that mean we have a 70% chance of not having hurricane force winds? Should we do anything? A hurricane is an extreme event. It can take away your home and can hurt your family. When we talk about low probabilities for extreme events, that is the key - extreme event. Last year s forecast had 15 named storms. That was an above normal season last year. There were 6 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes, more than 417 fatalities, and about $4.6 billion in reported damages. Last year was a bad year and we got lucky the United States didn t get hit much. Humberto was a near-shore rapidly developing hurricane which began as a mass of nothingness. Within 24 hours it went into a category 1 hurricane at landfall. That 5

6 doesn t give much time for emergency management and emergency responders to prepare for such a storm. Tropical Storm Olga occurred during the middle of December. It had diminished when it got out of the Yucatan, however, the remnants of Olga emerged as a cold front over Tampa Bay and produced a tornado that hit Pasco County and damaged a jail. We use instant messaging with emergency management and the media during events. One of our staff will issue a tornado warning for Pasco and Sumter and send it out and get instant messages back from media and emergency management. This is a way to communicate quickly and effectively. 125 female inmates were evacuated 5 minutes before the $750 Hardened Tent they were in was destroyed by the tornado in Pasco County. In part, that communication at 3 a.m. in the morning was due to the instant messaging. The 2008 forecast is calling for 15 storms, 7 or 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. The 30 year normal is 11 storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. If you look at the last 10 years, that s exactly normal for the last 10 years. There is a 90% chance of a near normal or above normal season. When you start to hear conflicting information get the word out to our citizens to pay attention to the forecast. Get the information you need to make informed decisions to protect yourself and your family. That will be our primary message this year when we have the opportunity for sound bites on the radio and TV Questions & Comments: Sec./Treas. Mariano: Council Member Fernandez: Mr. Noah: I want to thank you for what you do because you saved those 125 women inmates. The Captain responded quickly, within minutes of getting the report. We have a city television channel. Is there a way for us, during a hurricane or storm, to broadcast directly what is being produced by your office or another organization that is an authority? We are a small group of 26 employees so we can t do that directly. You could have the voice over from the weather radio in the background, but the people who have the information are really the local media. We rely on them to get the word out. Chair Kynes recognized the effort of several Council staff that have performed at a peak level to bring us to the point we are today with the One Bay regional visioning effort. Those staff are: Avera Wynne, Marshall Flynn, Greg Miller, Brady Smith and Suzanne Cooper. B. One Bay - Voice It Campaign Mr. Wynne presented the One Bay alternative development scenarios and introduced the Voice It campaign. Voice It is the public outreach campaign for One Bay. The Future will not be like the Past is a simple statement until you really start thinking about it. When I first read that statement it seemed very obvious to me. A lot of the efforts we go through as planners and elected officials is by thinking of the past and how history may repeat itself. But when we look at some of the evidence, I think we will 6

7 agree that the future will not be like the past. There are a few national trends that are shaping the way Tampa Bay may look in the future. Demographics are shifting; there will be some labor shortages as baby boomers age into 65+ years; and energy costs are rising. The U.S. is the only developed country to be in the top ten countries in growth through the year The U.S. will have more population growth by 2050 than China. China will add 76 million and the U.S. is forecasted to be over 97 million. We are growing rapidly. The U.S. population is forecast to be over 400 million by In the year 2011, as baby boomers start to turn 65, there will be a dramatic shift. Household sizes will be growing smaller because the vast majority of new households won t have children. Two-parent families are on the decline. 88% of household types will be without children. This will have a lot of implications on housing choices. Demographers believe that 70-80% of all population growth in the U.S. will occur in megapolitan regions. Our megapolitan region includes Tampa, Orlando and Miami. Another trend is rising energy costs. Energy costs are changing the way we are thinking about the future. Will $4.00 gas change the way we live, work and play? What about $5, $7 or more? Regions will be competing to be great places to play and work. Richard Florida s book talks about where you choose to live as one of the key decisions that you will make for your career. We have to play into that to make Tampa Bay the best region that we can. Other areas around the country have been doing regional visioning such as Portland, Southern California, Austin, TX, Central Florida - we aren t alone. What are the reasons that caused us in the Tampa Bay region to look at the future? In 1972 population was 1.7 million, land developed was about 493,110 acres, employment was at 517,806. In 2005 population was at 3.8 million, land developed was at 876,696 acres, and employment 2.2 million population is estimated at 7 million, and 1.6 million acres over the 7 county region. The TBRPC covers 4 counties but for this exercise we are looking a 7 counties. Our regional visioning is called One Bay. One Bay came out of the Reality Check exercise of last May 18 th. Why do we want to do this regional visioning? We are interconnected as a region. Counties and cities don t function independently and our ecosystems are all linked. We need to provide our mobility to connect our places where we live and work and we will be competing globally as a region. Reality Check was held May 18, We assimilated the data, then went out to the counties and held 15 workshops during October/November. We took that information and formed alternative scenarios. Currently we are in the public input campaign, called Voice It. At the initial input stage citizens told us they want adequate infrastructure, protect the environment, economic development, preserve open space, intergovernmental coordination, proximity of jobs and housing, connectivity, in-fill and redevelopment, more mass transit, and mixed use centers along corridors. Fifteen concepts were wrapped into 6 guiding principals which are in the Voice It scenario guide. The 6 guiding principals are: 1. Create a sense of place with mixed-use development and clustered density. 7

8 2. Multi-modal transportation. People want choices. They don t want to be forced to depend only on their automobile, they want alternative transit. 3. Preserve natural systems. 4. Balance jobs and housing for affordable quality of life. 5. Economic development - attract higher paying jobs 6. Preserve farmland and sustain the role of agriculture. The information that was gathered over the 15 month period has been put into scenarios. 318 people played the Reality Check exercise with the Legos and the ribbons. We went out and worked with the county sized exercises with another 700+ people. More than 1,000 people have touched the Legos and ribbons to help create the scenarios. We put together a One Bay Technical Team made up of county planners, water planners, and transportation planners throughout the 7 county region to provide feedback on the scenarios and to provide technical advice on how to move forward. The participant input narrowed down to 8 different concept areas. Data, infrastructure, economic development, intergovernmental coordination, preserve open space, proximity to jobs and housing, connectivity, infill and redevelopment and that translates into what we are calling scenario threads. There is a Power Point presentation on the web site that will provide all the detailed information. The fundamental concept is that we looked all the way down to the building type. How a single family house, a multi-family apartment complex, and office retail function when you aggregate them together. By function we mean, how much water do they consume? How many trips do they generate? How much electricity do they use? In essence,we have building blocks for our region. The different development types have different characteristics. When we paint them on the landscape we can see if we have this much of this type of development in this area and how it will create these impacts. We can evaluate the four scenarios two ways. One, we know how they function we can see where they are on the landscape, look at the geographic information system, and get spatial indicators. In other words, if we place a certain amount of development near certain types of natural resources we can gauge the impacts of that. The four scenarios are named A, B, C and D. Scenario A follows past growth patterns and trends. We looked at the local government land use plans and compared the capability of the development that was being allocated with the existing development patterns and land uses. The results from scenario A came out that the majority of new development was single family, lower density, and subdivisions, spread out and running together. Scenario A uses the most land of the four scenarios and it generates the most automobile trips. The single family house is one of the predominant land uses you will see; strip development for commercial and automobile traffic is prevalent. Scenario B is the people s scenario. This scenario stays true to the participants and where they placed their Legos in the Reality Check and One Bay exercises. There is more emphasis on redevelopment and revitalization in currently developed areas. There is an increased focus on housing options and mixed-use development with a better jobs and housing balance. Scenario B resulted in new development being more compact with fewer subdivisions, consumes less land, reduces potential impacts to wetlands, and reduces auto trips. The average trip length is also reduced when compared to scenario A. 8

9 Scenario C is the transit oriented development and emphasizes compact design. We looked at existing local government transit corridor concepts such as the Strategic Regional Transportation Needs Study, and the Transit Working Group. Scenario C clusters development around existing and potential activity centers resulting in a scenario that is most viable for commuter rail and transit, although there are transit options in all of the scenarios. This scenario has the least land consumed, potable water usage, and electrical usage and preserves the most open space. Scenario D placed a major emphasis on protecting wetlands and habitat. There is also more emphasis on redevelopment and clustered development as opposed to scenario A, yielding in what you might expect, the least amount of potential impact to environmental wetlands. Less than 500 acres of wetland or priority habitat will be threatened under this scenario and the least amount of development in flood plains. Scenario A is the trend scenario, the path we are heading on if we don t do anything differently. Therefore, it is appropriate to compare B, C and D to A. To compare the scenarios visually and to view this presentation, please visit the link below. How do these scenarios compare against each other? Scenario A consumes over 500,000 acres or an area three times the size of Pinellas County. Compact development will reduce the number of miles driven in automobiles. More agricultural land is converted to developed uses. Clustered development can dramatically reduce potential impact to wetlands and priority habitat. Scenarios B, C, and D are likely to achieve a 20% reduction in potable water demand over scenario A. Community design can help reduce energy consumption. All four scenarios have conservation built into them. Multi-family uses and different types of uses are more prevalent in B, C, and D and use less water than A. Community design and how we build our communities can also reduce energy consumption. A lot of this gets down to housing choices and what mix we will be looking for in the future. The demographic trends have a big impact on this because when you look at the aging of population, the amount of households without children, and the household size itself getting smaller there will be more of a demand for multifamily. Will there still be people demanding the typical family suburban product? Yes. We will have that product in the mix in all the scenarios. Why a Regional Vision? To be successful as a region, we need to know where we are headed because we don t think the future will be like the past, and we need to try and look forward. We need to get our plans in place. This process is about education and dialogue, and to get the community engaged. We are at the point where we want to receive feedback from the public through the Voice It campaign at You will be receiving an from us soon and we request you forward it so we can reach as many people as possible. We want to drive people to the web site and get them to fill out the survey. Tell us what they think about the scenarios, what they think should be different, do they want to blend scenarios? This will give us an idea of what values are most important to the public. There will be a public service announcement and when you see it you will recognize it ties into the scenario guide. The Voice It scenario guide was distributed in the Council folders. Questions & Comments: Mr. Garcia: The scenarios didn t take into account immigration. Is that data 10 years 9

10 Mr. Garcia: Mr. Garcia: Mr. Garcia: old? Was the data from the 2000 census? Over the last 3 years Council has approved thousands of units just south of Hillsborough County and just north of Hillsborough County. Predominately single family. Clearly the preference of many people is still the single family house. How do we use any of those other scenarios with those factors? Dependant upon where you are and which demographic you are looking at, household sizes aren t necessarily getting larger. Some of the developers that we talked to have said they can t continue to build subdivisions. The other parts of the scenarios take the jobs and put them where people live and balance it out. How does the Regional Planning Council help to pave the way for compact or ecologically friendly development patterns when we seem set on pretty hard tracks? We are approving subdivisions that won t be finished until The Developments of Regional Impact (DRI) can be a very adaptive creature. A lot of those originally had a lot more commercial and industrial components to them, and they came back and changed. Many DRIs have conversion mechanisms in them to convert to what is working in the market. One of the things that occurs from the developer standpoint is that they have transit options such as relocating transit because employment and retail are closer to the houses and they are making less trips on the regional roadway. That would reduce their development costs. Some people have talked about transit oriented development. TBARTA is going out and looking at some of them right now. All types of investment follows. If a developer can come in and build close to the market in a less expensive way then they are going to do that because they will be motivated by profit. The flexibility is there. The developers have said they have been building 2500 sq. ft. houses with 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, 2 car garages. The only way you can keep a candy bar under $1.00 is to make it smaller. I agree with that. So you don t build 2500 sq. ft., you do 1400 sq. ft. You are still using the same amount of trips. When you place new development types on the landscape it doesn t take a lot of 60 dwelling units per acre or 100 dwelling units per acre to increase average density. We need to not fixate on a number, like 6 dwellings per acre, to mean that transit options will work. A lot has to do with community design, how walkable is it. You can take an area that s a quarter mile in diameter but if it s walkable people will still come. The streetcar in Portland, the developers that are right on the streetcar line are developing at 90%. As soon as you go 3 blocks away it s down to 40%. What that says is that there is a premium on those types of infrastructure. The entire Portland metro region that people talk about as being the holy grail of transit is only at 6 or 7 dwelling units per acre. I don t think the visualization of it is that dramatic. The walking community - the way we design subdivisions or plan new developments now, they want winding attractive interior streets which means that I would have to walk a mile to get to my neighbor who lives behind me because of all the yards and fences. Whereas the grid design gives you that walkable environment. Connectivity is important, I agree. 10

11 Commissioner Chaney: Can you tell me how you defined the 10 mega regions? Is that based on population trends? I didn t define them. They probably drew them so they could say 70% or 80% of the population was going to go into them. I honestly don t know. Commissioner Chaney: Commissioner Chaney: Mr. Kinnan: Ms. Collins: All this planning is based upon that theory? No. It s just that the idea is regional competitiveness and people will be looking for regions that provide opportunities with either employment or quality of life, and probably those go hand in hand to a certain extent. It just so happens that a handful of people are going to have the resources to be able to be competitive, in this case 10, to create that vibrance or quality of life with the balance of jobs. It s not so much a reaction to do the regional visioning, it s just that it seems to be a trend that is occurring and in response to it we have to be competitive as a region. And you said the population is projected to nearly double by 2050? In the seven counties? And that s based on population trends? Do you know if that coordinates with the direction of the Century Commission? Yes. These projections are similar to what the Bureau of Economic Business Research (BEBR) are when you get to 2030, but they don t go out further than that. We are going out to We chose numbers that were consistent with state efforts and national efforts. I plead guilty for not really knowing what the scope of your project is from a standpoint of education. Are you charged in any way to look at how education plays into this design? By that I mean, post secondary education? Is there a formula for how many satellite campuses of USF should be around? The one I m thinking more of are technical institutions that maybe should or shouldn t be placed by interstates where they can serve multiple counties. Does that play any role in your development in terms of what you would like to see education look like in the future? There is really three fundamental things that the program is looking at: Land use patterns and forecasting different alternatives that could occur; Transportation, more on how; and Environmental resources. How do we accommodate the jobs and population while maintaining the integrity of our environmental systems? There s not a socio-economic component to it in terms of specifics. What we are hoping for is for local governments to pick up the scenarios. We will be sharing the additional input we receive over the next 6 months with everybody who will listen, particularly land use organizations, environmental organizations, transportation organizations such as TBARTA and let them know the people have seen alternative ways of developing. Then people in the education arena can start to say we need to be thinking of meeting the needs of the future. It is true that we need to start building for the future. Developers won t build something that isn t marketable. Development in Hillsborough County is really only developing just about half of what the comp plan allows. Local governments aren t willing to allow the maximum densities of what the comp plan says. A lot of this will be on the shoulders of the local governments and government officials. Keep in mind, as an example, that sometimes these are approved on 11

12 Commissioner Worthington: transportation mitigation so while they may come in and get a development order,or a sub-division approved based on what they are going to mitigate, it may be that its much less than what the land use map requires. So in some cases, there is room for those people to come back, even if they were approved in They could always come back in and do more, but one of the things that would happen is since a lot of things are keyed on concurrency impact fees, mitigation, and that type of thing - they can come in and get more units at the same amount for mitigation dollars. That starts to make their projects more profitable and we have seen that happen over the last five years. People come in and really pitch their projects. They say they are increasing internal trip ratios to the development and people aren t going to have to get out on the regional roadway. It s difficult to prove when your only choice to get anywhere is with the automobile, but when you have other alternatives available such as bicycle, pedestrian, bus, it makes it much easier for the governments to believe that s going to happen and approve more units for the same amount of mitigation. I really feel like the One Bay concept, because I was at several of those meetings where we had the Legos, is totally flawed. At the conference there were many tables set up with 7 or 8 people at each table and one moderator at each table. You were given this pile of Legos and ribbons and the message to hurry up and place the Legos. You had to use them all. The moderator at the table made sure that you placed every Lego, whether you wanted to or not. I know a lot of people who were at my table were saying not in my backyard. That s understandable because a lot of communities like the City of Gulfport does not want growth. We are very content. We are a very old city, and are very content with the single family residential units we have. Another thing is when there are rivers and lakes going dry today we are having to engineer water storage units above ground which loses a lot of water to evaporation. Are we going to keep building ponds to store water? We re taking it out of the ground and when we take it from the ground the rivers and lakes go dry. Potable water availability is one of the chief concerns we hear. That s always at the height of people s concerns. The concept of people having to place all their Legos - they were required to do that because using these estimates and forecasts are a consensus estimate. A lot of people might think it s lower, some might think it s higher but in order to achieve some orderly fashion to the game we had to have a number to use and that s the one that we used. Keep in mind at the end that scenarios are illustrative and are not concrete by any means. They are very descriptive of what could happen if we do certain guiding principals and certain values. If you put the development out in a certain pattern it will yield certain results. Reasonable people can disagree on the amount of Legos used but it shows that if those amounts of people do come we can put them in the Tampa Bay Region and have a lot of space left over without impacting environmental areas. When you look at the number on the surface and think we are going to almost double in population that takes people back at first. If you stated we are going to have 3 more 12

13 Commissioner Worthington: Sec./Treas. Mariano: Chair Kynes: Pinellas Counties grow between now and 2050 my first reaction would be, where? Where is it going to be? This is a gaming exercise that was developed by the Rand Corporation on how to deal with a nuclear blast aftermath. In your presentation you were showing a huge increase in the baby boomers and older Americans. You were talking smaller family sizes. Where are we going to get all these extra people? There will be migration and immigration to the U.S. We aren t going to grow those 97 million based on our natural birth and death rates. There will be an influx of people from somewhere else. Part of the point is that we have the dependency ratio which is the people that work to provide the goods and services for those who don t work. The demographic group is going to be smaller than what it has historically taken to fill the average job creation in the U.S. As far as your question, How do we get there? Pasco County just did a study with the Urban Land Institute who took a look at us and told us we have a 65 year supply of residential property already approved. We are pretty well on our way. How are you proposing to preserve, from agricultural lands, are you looking to transfer density credits? How can you implement for a situation like Pasco County? Of course all the different agricultural type protection programs are always very politically charged but I think the idea is that - it gives an estimate of how much land may have to be converted from agriculture to sustain our demand for housing and jobs. You mentioned that you have all the excess inventory in Pasco County. Some of that is in agricultural production now so it has to be converted from whatever use it s in. The idea is to get you to think about that and to ask yourself the question, how might we do it? One Bay doesn t propose a specific policy on any of these scenarios and you won t see any particular transit lines on the maps either. That s for the MPOs and TBARTA to look at and have a vision. The thing that s really important, you talk about the amount - you said 65 years of residential inventory - the thought about it is your comp plan only goes out to The MPO plans go to If we are going to build things like transit that will be a 50 year investment. We don t want to just think about what might be in place between now and 2035, we want to make sense beyond that time period. Something like a visioning effort gives us the chance to think beyond the comp plan framework. I can tell there has been a lot of interest here and you can fill out your surveys which are really important for you to weigh in. Council presentations can be found at 7. Council Members Comments - Chair Kynes Chair Kynes extended congratulations to Mr. Bob Kersteen who was recently presented with Member of the Year from the Friends of Weedon Island. He was also unanimously elected as President for the organization. One of the things that you saw today was a walkable community with bicycles, transit, and all those components. We have a new member who sat with me on the PSTA and he 13

14 has now become a Councilman for the city of St. Petersburg. Karl Nurse needs to be recognized as being the father of Bikes on Buses. He pushed hard for that and it has become a major success in our area. Councilman Nurse: I would like to comment on the One Bay scenarios A, B, C and D. The way you do it, they call it zoning. We are not going to have enough water to do what we ve been doing. It s not very complicated. We use all the water now, and it s just not a road we can go down. We will create gridlock. To me the real question is, we need to identify which governments have updated their zoning - whether you call it new urbanism or one of these scenarios. My guess is that most have not updated their zoning. Maybe Commissioner Duncan can tell us what Pinellas County has done. I know you have done Pinellas By Design. Commissioner Duncan: We re not there but we are between Pinellas By Design as well as the implementation of Liveable Communities. Land use is part of our amended comp plan. We are hoping to create density that would allow for transit components to work better. Our density would not increase dramatically. But it goes back to land use. Zoning for a county like Pinellas where you have 24 municipalities all having their own bite of that apple has been inconsistent across the board. What we have to do in Pinellas County is to continue to press this forward so there is more consistency and density of land use and zoning. We are working to guide this change to other scenarios. We re on our way but St. Pete is probably ahead of everybody in Pinellas County. Councilman Nurse: When we started in 1999 I thought we would be done in 2001 and we just finished. Commissioner Duncan: To pay for the infrastructure in the future and what we need from transit, whether it be BRT or rail, because the cost of that is going to have to be fortified with development around those centers. I was in Phoenix recently looking at their new system. Just to give you an idea, they have done exactly what St. Pete is moving toward and that is they created this transit corridor and obviously high density along that line and phases down as you move away. Interestingly enough the average in the country of investment to return is something for every dollar infrastructure invested in is about a $4-$4.50 return of growth or increased density, thus increased tax roles. In Phoenix it s for every dollar about a $6.00 return and ironically the system isn t opened yet. It doesn t open until December of this year. 72% of the density that could be built has already been built on the ground and people are occupying those transit corridors in anticipation of this transit working. They have done what you asked. How do we get from here to there? They ve gone there and it really goes back to being aggressive and being focused on that land use change to guide that as opposed to letting it happen like it is now. Al Davis, citizen: I live in Gulfport near the water and I attended the visioning process workshops. I would like to go back to the comments 14

15 about water. After I found that the projected increase has been enthusiastically endorsed by many organizations with environmental labels included an increased 3.2 million people at 84% over the time frame, and they also projected 400 miles of road I asked engineers at SWFWMD on the 4 th of April what they saw as the impact of this plan on stormwater and what that growth would do. The answer I got was a little discomforting. They said that it had no impact. I asked if there was any planning for any stormwater runoff associated with fertilizer, animal waste and other associated runoffs and they said no because the plans were adequate as they are. I asked if that was based on 20 year old data and they said yes, Pinellas County is mostly built out and they didn t feel that this plan would have any affect at all on water. I would submit to you that that is not a very good answer. Chair Kynes: Thank you very much. This has been very thought provoking and that s why we are here, so each of us can take some of this back. Whether we agree or disagree we all learn things we can take back and help shape the region. Ms. Collins: I would like to clarify one thing. He said something about a certain percentage of people, the population increase. That s really not what s happening. People are going to come here no matter what. We re trying to plan for people that are coming here and it s not that any agency is saying we will allow another 2 million people in the state or this region. It s going to happen either way so we either have to prepare for it, or not prepare for it. If we plan smart we will have water and we will have adequate resources. 8. Program Reports A. Agency on Bay Management (ABM) - Chair, Mr. Robert Kersteen The Public Information Committee will meet on June 12th. B. Clearinghouse Review Committee (CRC) - Chair, Commissioner Bill Dodson No Report. C. Local Emergency Planning Committee (LEPC) - No Report. D. Emergency Management - Ms. Betti Johnson Staff provided an update of current emergency management projects, including the 2008 Hurricane Guide, the Statewide Regional Evacuation Study, the Business Disaster Preparedness Kit and the Pinellas Recovery Plan. The 2008 Hurricane Guide have been distributed. We printed approximately 400,000 for 6 counties including Hernando and Sarasota, and in two languages. We were able to get them out a little early so everybody had them for their expos. The Statewide Regional Evacuation Study - we are still waiting on the process data. The state is being very diligent about holding the contractors to a high standard of quality. 15

16 They are making sure the data is of the highest quality for elevation data. Meanwhile staff has been compiling the critical facilities inventory, a geo database, and the map. We have also reviewed the bids and selected our transportation consultant for the new analysis. We are moving forward and are anxious to receive the new SLOSH data. Next month we will unveil the Business Disaster Preparedness Kit. The web site has been totally redesigned and is interactive, thanks to Kim Williams. It will not only have guidance information, but also an on-line tool to help businesses develop their plans. We will also have an educational game. The Business Recovery Plan. We are taking advantage of a statewide project that s going on where pilot communities were selected for post disaster redevelopment planning. It turns out those communities include Hillsborough County and Manatee County, Sarasota County, Polk and Nassau County. Since we are relatively close we invited them to come here so we get to take advantage of the lessons learned and the things that the consultants are doing for the pilot communities as we help Pinellas and Pasco develop their own, instead of waiting to see what they come up with in a year and a half. Please mark your calendars for July 31 st. We will be hosting the Gulf of Mexico Alliance Disaster Resilient Communities Workshop. This group was established by the Governor s from the states of Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi and Florida after the 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons. The Governors got together and they are trying to address some of the key issues that we all face here along the Gulf of Mexico. They will be identifying pilot communities for a new project that they are calling the Disaster Resilient Communities. They want to discuss the major issues that need to be addressed, indicators, and select the pilot communities. We are hoping they will look at the recovery and disaster planning on a regional basis and they will be looking at input from local officials, the private sector, and other key participants. They are very excited to have Council members. You will be receiving an invitation from the Gulf of Mexico Alliance. This could be something big for Tampa Bay. The workshop will be held at TBRPC unless the group gets too large for the conference room. E. Legislative Committee - Chair, Mr. Julian Garcia, Jr. - No Report. F. Regional Planning Advisory Committee (RPAC) - Mr. Avera Wynne - No Report. G. Telework Tampa Bay - No Report. H. Economic Development - No Report. I. Regional Domestic Security Task Force (RDSTF) - No Report. 16

17 9. Other Council Reports 10. Executive/Budget Committee Report - Chair Kynes We met this morning to discuss the Fiscal Year 2008/2009 Proposed Budget and the Help A Child lease agreement. We will be bringing this to you for your consideration at the July Council meeting. We also discussed the refinancing of the building and we voted to consider bids from various banking institutions and will be brought to Council at the August meeting. 11. Chair s Report - Chair Kynes 12. Executive Director s Report - Manny Pumariega I would like to emphasize the presentation that Mr. Wynne made today. We really need your help to get the word out. We want to get thousands of folks in the 7 county region to go to the web site and complete the survey. That would hopefully give us some answers to the questions that were asked today and then we can come up with a clearer vision at the end of this process in August or September. Please tell your friends and family members to participate in the survey. Adjournment 11:30 a.m. Lori Denman, Recording Secretary Commissioner Deborah Kynes, Chair 17