Panel Discussion How to Mitigate Natural Disasters through Science and Technology

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1 Asian Science and Technology Seminar in Mongolia Earthquake Disaster Mitigation Research and Practice in Mongolia 7 March 2007 Panel Discussion How to Mitigate Natural Disasters through Science and Technology Kenji Okazaki National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS) Japan

2 10 Major Disasters (fatalities) in the last 30 years

In earthquakes, most of the victims are killed by their own houses.

3 Adobe Stones Bricks Securing safety of vernacular houses is crucial Most of houses around the world are non-engineered, being vulnerable to earthquakes. In earthquakes, most of the victims are killed by their own houses. Loss of houses magnified the impact of disasters Financial burden of governments caused by destruction of houses is huge.

4 Securing housing safety is crucial and technically easy, but --- Current vicious cycle for unsafer houses Large casualty/damage in earthquakes Support for recovery locally, nationally, internationally Increase of vulnerable houses No incentive for safer houses

5 Securing housing safety is crucial and technically easy, hence --- Proposed cycle for safer houses Decrease of victims and recovery cost Support for safer houses locally, nationally, internationally Increase of safer houses Strong incentive for safer houses

6 Resource allocation for housing safety Engineered vs. Non-engineered Resource allocation Lives that could be saved Engineered Non-engineered

7 Resource allocation for disaster management New construction vs. Existing houses Resource allocation Lives that could be saved New construction Existing houses

8 Individual decision making is crucial for disaster management Few house owners invest for improvement of houses Even with financial assistance for retrofitting from the governments in Japan, people would not retrofit their houses. - Unless every house owner makes decision to invest in improvement of safety of the house, earthquake loss cannot be reduced. Few people evacuate immediately after warning After recent tsunami warning, 90 % did not evacuate (stay home) in Japan. - Unless every person makes decision to evacuate immediately, the warning system would not be effective.

9 What motivates people for actions towards safety? Understanding their future risk (loss of house and life) - Probability of disasters - Vulnerability of houses and lives - Reliability of information Decreasing the cost to secure safety - Technology development - Financial and technical assistance Policies to improve safety - Appropriate regulations and guidance such as Building Codes and its enforcement - Political commitment for safety

10 How can science and technology contribute for individual motivation? Understanding their future risk (loss of house and life) Probability of disasters Contribute little as the probability is very low Vulnerability of houses and lives Contribute a lot through practical assessment tools and education? Reliability of information Risk communication by trusted experts Ownership of the risk through participatory process Decreasing the cost to secure safety Technology development - Applicable and affordable technologies for local communities? Financial and technical assistance - Subsidy or low interest loan - Training and technical consultation

11 How can science and technology contribute for individual motivation? Policies to improve safety Appropriate regulations and guidance such as Building Codes and its enforcement - Development of technical requirements reflecting the local conditions? Political commitment for safety - Development of policies in favor of those who invest for safety - Funds for such policies can be mobilized from resources to be allocated for relief and recovery/reconstruction.

12 Involvement of scientists and engineers Reliability of information Financial and technical assistance Political commitment for safety >>> Community Based Disaster Management - Risk communication with every community member by trusted experts - Trust and ownership through participatory process - Local governments or NGOs can provide financial and technical assistance

RADIUS Project (1996-1999) 1999) Motivation of local people for urban seismic reduction Capacity building Awareness raising - Local leadership and ownership - Commitment of local

13 RADIUS Project ( ) 1999) Motivation of local people for urban seismic reduction Capacity building Awareness raising - Local leadership and ownership - Commitment of local governments and scientists - Risk communication between international experts and local people Earthquake damage scenarios and action plans were developed by local people in 9 cities worldwide

14 A training seminar in Japan Interview with police officers in Zigong Disaster seminar for students in Bandung Action Plan Workshop in Tashkent

15 Simplified tool for damage estimation Input: Area, population, building types, (ground conditions) Output: Building damage, Human loss/injury

RADIUS initiatives are sustainable Some local partnerships sustain and efforts continue Skopje adopted RADIUS recommendations in Master Plan. Guayaquil created a new Division for Disaster Mitigation.

16 RADIUS initiatives are sustainable Some local partnerships sustain and efforts continue Skopje adopted RADIUS recommendations in Master Plan. Guayaquil created a new Division for Disaster Mitigation. Bandung changed its building permit process. Antofagasta generated US$ 1 million to remove schools from Tsunami areas. Tijuana created an NGO called RADIUS. Tijuana organizes a RADIUS meeting every month. It had 76 th meeting last week (August 2006). Experience is transferred to neighboring cities.

17 PNY Pantanka New-Life Project Rehabilitation after Gujarat Earthquake of January 2001 Focus on non-engineered construction UNCRD with EDM, NCPDP, NGOs Kobe, NSET-Nepal, and SEEDS Training Education Awareness Confidence

18 Understanding vulnerability and learning practical technologies

19 Motivation and capacity building by Shake- Table Demonstration (by UNCRD + NSET Nepal) Wooden structure, Kobe, Japan, 2005 Brick masonry, after Bam Earthquake, Iran, 2004

20 Education plays an important role For people to understand their own risk (what will be lost in case of disasters) and to take appropriate actions For governments to develop appropriate policies, reflecting local conditions To foster experts who can communicate with local people with professional knowledge and laymen s language

(retrofitting) Technology transfer and training of

21 School Earthquake Safety Initiative Fiji, India, Indonesia, and Uzbekistan by UNCRD Retrofit Strengthen school buildings (retrofitting) Technology transfer and training of masons/engineers Disaster education Children are good messengers to families and communities

Master Program for Disaster Mitigation GRIPS (National

Institute) JICA (Japan International Cooperation Agency)

Seismology More than 1,200 graduates in 95 countries (2005)

22 Master Program for Disaster Mitigation GRIPS (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies) BRI (Building Research Institute) JICA (Japan International Cooperation Agency) Graduates of Training Courses on Earthquake Engineering and Seismology More than 1,200 graduates in 95 countries (2005) Epicenters of earthquakes Number of Graduates from the training course

23 Thank you! A single death is a tragedy, a million death is a statistic. Joseph Stalin Kenji Okazaki Professor National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS) Roppongi, Minato-ku, Tokyo, Japan Tel: Fax: Web:

Capacity Building of Communities. Kenji Okazaki UNCRD United Nations Centre for Regional Development Disaster Management Planning Hyogo Office

Capacity Building of Communities Kenji Okazaki UNCRD United Nations Centre for Regional Development Disaster Management Planning Hyogo Office Why Community Based Disaster Management? Local people are potential