Societal and Economic Research and Applications Working Group (SERA WG)

Transcription

1 Societal and Economic Research and Applications Working Group (SERA WG) Brian Mills WWRP WG SERA Meteorological Research Division Environment Canada c/o Faculty of Environment, University of Waterloo Waterloo, ON, Canada N2L 3G1 Super Typhoon Haiyan/Yolanda, Leyte Province, Philippines Munich Re (2014)

2 Context Loss Events in 2013 (Munich Re, 2014)

3 Context Munich Re (2014)

4 Context Munich Re (2014) Reflects a complex set of dynamic physical and social factors that are embedded in aggregate impacts (exposure, sensitivity, resources, learning, resilience wx science) What has been and could yet be avoided because of improvements in wx prediction and communication/use of wx-related risk information?

5 WG SERA The primary purpose of the WG SERA is to advance the science of the social and economic application of weather-related information and services. This is accomplished in part through the provision of advice to WWRP and WMO and through the development, review and promotion of societal and economic-related research focused on high-impact weather (HIW) and information. While the broad intent of the WWRP strategic plan remains valid through 2017, the clear direction for WG SERA is to take a strong role in supporting the 3 Thorpex legacy projects: Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) prediction project High Impact Weather (HIW) project Polar Prediction Project (PPP)

6 New Membership/Leadership Back Row, L-R: Paul Kovacs (Canada), Kwabena Anaman (Ghana), Sally Potter (alt., New Zealand), Jeffrey Lazo (USA), Joanne Robbins (UK), Jan Eichner (Germany), Eugene Poolman (South Africa) Front Row, L-R: Linda Anderson-Berry (Co-chair, Australia), Brian Mills (Canada), Jane Rovins (Co-chair, USA) Not pictured: Ben Jong-Dao Jou (Taiwan, China), David Johnston (New Zealand), Nanette Lomarda (WMO), Adriaan Perrels (Finland)

7 Ingredients for building a better WG Better and more frequent means of communication annual fora (sometimes 1.5 years) cannot facilitate and sustain substantive involvement in WWRP projects o Enhanced use of social media, webinars, and video conferencing o Internet presence to store documentation (resource clearing house) and to facilitate two-way exchanges, receive feedback and communicate outwards o Greater use of regular WMO member surveys and efforts to coordinate with other parts of WMO interested in user/client evaluation and social science applications (e.g., CBS-Public Weather Services, Disaster Risk Reduction)

8 Ingredients for building a better WG Building capacity (esp. funding) to sustain a long-term R&D commitment to impact forecasting, communication, and evaluation: o Continue augmenting breadth of disciplines and regions in membership o Clarify exactly what is required to support WWRP projects through WG SERA and its networks (opportunism balanced with early, considered involvement) o Utilize available resources from WMO, Project trust funds, and NMHSs to consolidate efforts, concentrating on engaging people to develop joint research proposals and training opportunities o Piggy-back on related continental and national research programs such as those oriented to climate change, public health, and DRR o Coordinate and leverage within and outside WMO on projects, activities, and advice related to hazard and disaster risk reduction (e.g., IRDR, Hyogo Post Framework for DRR, and national-level resilience programs)

9 Activities & Plans WWOSC User, Application, & Social Science program o Largest international gathering of social and interdisciplinary scientists and application specialists focused on weather-related research ever convened o 5 high profile joint morning plenary addresses, 10 panel and 17 parallel sessions involving 107 speakers plus an additional 31 posters addressed several themes o Sessions on communication, risk perception, hazard/disaster risk, and specific projects (lunch sessions) were especially well-attended o Next steps include soliciting broad UAS participant input into a WMO book chapter (February 2015) and developing communication and collaboration mechanisms to maintain the network that grew through the conference WWOSC Videos/Presentations -

10 Activities & Plans Sub-seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Project o Joanne Robbins is the official WG liaison o SERA members involved in S2S through the Needs and Applications pillar (suggest adding a third co-chair on social science) o Update and critical review of relevant S2S application literature o Input to initial 5 sub-project descriptions/scoping o Identification of key areas (research questions or application topics) for SERA contributions (esp. where members are already involved) o Identify approaches to better plan, develop, prioritize, and coordinate user and practitioner engagement o Identify, increase project awareness, and solicit involvement of social scientists (e.g., IRDR WGs, WAS*IS lists, etc.)

11 Activities & Plans Polar Prediction Project (PPP) o Brian Mills represents WG SERA on the PPP Steering Committee o SERA-PPP sub-committee is being formed largely drawing upon the existing network of social/interdisciplinary scientists involved in climate change related research in the Arctic o Scoping meeting tentatively planned for March 2015 (J. Dawson, University of Ottawa) Inform a group of active polar social scientists about PPP Revisit/critique/improve elements of the science and implementation plans of both PPP and YOPP Solicit sub-committee members and develop a broader network that could contribute at the project level of activity

12 Activities & Plans High Impact Weather (HIWeather) Project o Involvement in June 2014 organizational workshop and review of latest HIWeather proposal o Special HIWeather project session within the UAS program at the WWOSC o Members have been tasked to identify their interest in specific roles and contributions to the project these will take shape over the next year (L. Anderson-Berry, J. Lazo, B. Mills, A. Perrels, J. Robbins, J. Rovins) o Proposed activity to compare risks across HIWeather priority hazards (beginning with mortality/morbidity and damage) o Expected that SERA RDP concept on Understanding the societal and economic dimensions of weather-related warning systems would be realized through the HIWeather project

13 Activities & Plans Other Selected Activities o Coastal Flood Inundation Demonstration Project (CIFDP) o Guidance document supported by WMO (PWS), World Bank and Climate Services Partnership/USAID (Forecast Value: Economic Assessment of Meteorological and Hydrological Services) o Disaster Risk Reduction Focal Points of WMO Technical Commissions and Technical Programmes (DRR FP TC-TP) coordinating committee (established to provide guidance for hazard monitoring and impact analysis) o Members are also investigating opportunities to pursue socio-economic valuation work in Ghana (K. Anaman) and for the SWFDP program and South Africa Flood Forecasting System (E. Poolman)