Revisions to Short Rate Expectations: Policy Shocks and Macroeconomic News" Michael D. Bauer (University of California-San Diego)
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1 Ninth Annual Missouri Economics Conference March 27-28, 2009 University of Missouri-Columbia Hosted by: The Department of Economics at the University of Missouri-Columbia and the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis All sessions are in the Reynolds Alumni Center Only presenting authors are listed on this program Registration Table outside room 202, Reynolds Alumni Center FRIDAY, MARCH 27, 2009 Continental Breakfast 8:00 a.m. (alcove next to Registration Table) Concurrent Session I 9 a.m.-11 a.m. A: Room 208D Economics of Human Capital "The Kids Keep Getting Smarter: Can Education Explain the Rapid, Sustained Productivity Growth in the Czech Transition?" David Wiczer (University of Illinois) "Human Capital, Returning Migration and Rural Entrepreneurship in China" Jialu Liu (Indiana University-Bloomington) Giving and the Nature of Communities: An Analysis of How Community Characteristics Affect an Individual s Likelihood of Engaging in Volunteer Work Florence Neymotin (Kansas State University) B: Room 208A Applied Macroeconomics "Regime Switching, Learning, and the Great Moderation" James Murray (Viterbo University) Revisions to Short Rate Expectations: Policy Shocks and Macroeconomic News" Michael D. Bauer (University of California-San Diego) The Identification of the Response of Interest Rates to Monetary Policy Shocks Using Market-Based Measures of Monetary Policy Shocks Daniel L. Thornton (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis) When Do World Orderings and Long-Run Recursive Identifying Restrictions Yield Identical Results? John Keating (University of Kansas) C: Room 204 International Public Goods "War and Peace: A Model of Conflict with Endogenous Destruction" Yang-Ming Chang (Kansas State University) "Foreign Aid as Counterterrorism Policy" Subhayu Bandyopadhyay (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis) Debt Targeting in a Small Open Economy Huixin Bi (Indiana University - Bloomington)
2 D: Room 208C Economic Growth Pollution, Health and Economic Growth Min Wang (Iowa State University) Knowledge Diffusion and the Japanese Growth Miracle Atsushi Oshima (University of Iowa) News Shocks and Learning-by-doing Hammad Qureshi (Ohio State University) Human Capital, Technology Adoption and Development A. Kerem Cosar (The Pennsylvania State University) E: Room 211 Applied Microeconomics Location and Venture Funding in the U.S. Biotech Industry Christos Kolympiris (University of Missouri - Columbia) Analyzing the Effects of a Merger between Airline Codeshare Partners David Brown (Kansas State University) Profit Persistence Revisited: The Case of the UK Mark E. Wohar (University of Nebraska - Omaha) The Impact of Storms on Firm Survival: a Bayesian Spatial Econometric Model for Firm Survival Mihaela Craioveanu (University of Central Missouri) F: Room 212 Industrial Organization Access Price and Vertical Control Policies for a Vertically Integrated Upstream Monopolist When Sabotage is Costly George Chikhladze (University of Missouri-Columbia) Endogenous Status Concerns: The Impact of Workers Characteristics on Status, Profits and Diversity in the Firm Abhijit Ramalingam (Indiana University - Bloomington) Price Matching in a Sequential Search Duopoly Aleksandr Yankelevich (Washington University in St. Louis) Refreshment Break Coffee, Juice, Tea, Soda 11 a.m.-11:30 a.m. (alcove next to Registration Table) Concurrent Session II 11:30 a.m.-1:30 p.m. A: Room 208D Applied Economic Forecasting Improving Recession Probability Forecasts in the U.S. Economy Munechika Katayama (Louisiana State University) Forecasting Credit Rating Movements Nilay Chandra (University of Missouri-Columbia) How Predictable are Components of the Aggregate Market Portfolio? David E. Rapach (St. Louis University) The Propagation of Regional Recessions Michael T. Owyang (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis) 2
3 B: Room 208A International Economics Does Purchasing Power Parity Hold Globally? Mingming Zheng (University of Kansas) Imports R Us: Retail Chains as Platforms for Developing-Country Imports Emek Basker (University of Missouri - Columbia) Equilibrium Sovereign Default with Endogenous Exchange Rate Depreciation Sergey V. Popov (University of Illinois) Accounting for City Real Exchange Rate Changes in India A.K.M. Mahbub Morshed (Southern Illinois University - Carbondale) C: Room 204 Economic Theory I Is Less More: Menu Costs and the Estimated Thresholds in the Response of Output to Monetary Policy Luiggi Donayre (Washington University St. Louis) The Economics of Counterfeiting Elena Quercioli (Tulane University) Heterogeneous Beliefs and Housing-Market Boom-Bust Cycles Hajime Tomura (Bank of Canada) D: Room 208C Financial Markets Risk, Instability and Propensities: A Hybrid Model of Financial Disruption David L. Sallach (University of Chicago) Relationship Lending and the Transmission of Monetary Policy Kinda Hachem (University of Toronto) Does the Structure of Banking Matter for Economic Growth? Evidence from the Rise of U.S. Manufacturing David C. Wheelock (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis) E: Room 211 Regional Economics Crime Spillovers and Hurricane Katrina Ioana Pacurar (University of Memphis) The Effect of Unaffordable Housing on Employment Growth and Business Formation: Evidence from California Cities Ritashree Chakrabarti (Clark University) Relative Gender Differentials and Islam in Non-Arabic Nations: A Regional Analysis Sharmistha Self (Missouri State University) F: Room 212 Microeconomic Theory When to go Local, When to go Edible: Trade, Technology and Food Security Thomas R. Sadler and William Koch (Western Illinois University) Multidimensional Uncertainty and The Effects of Governance Structure Choice Jong Chul Won (University of Missouri Columbia) Kin-targeted Altruism with Noise Carmen Astorne-Figari (Washington University-St. Louis) 3
4 Who Invests in Research and Development?: A Model of Endogenous Sectoral Choice under Costly External Finance Rasim Burak Uras (Washington University - St. Louis) Lunch Break Deli Buffet 1:30 p.m.-2:30 p.m. (Alcove next to Registration Table) Name Tag admits you to lunch. Concurrent Session III 2:30 p.m. - 4:30 p.m. A: Room 208D Econometrics Change Points in Arbitrage-Free Affine Term-Structure Models: Pricing Estimation and Forecasting Kyu Ho Kang (Washington University - St. Louis) A Forecasting Metric for Evaluating DSGE Models Abhishek Gupta (Johns Hopkins University) Nested Forecast Model Comparisons: A New Approach to Testing Equal Accuracy Michael W. McCracken (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis) Generalized Spectral Estimation of Asset Pricing Models Using Conditional Moment Restrictions Jinho Choi (Indiana University - Bloomington) B: Room 208A Macroeconomic Theory On-the-Job Search, Sticky Prices, and Persistence Willem Van Zandweghe (Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City) Unemployment Insurance in a Sticky-Price Model with Worker Moral Hazard Gregory E. Givens (Middle Tennessee State University) Aggregate Labor Market Responses to Monetary and Technology Shocks Hamilton B. Fout (Kansas State University) Supply Shocks, Demand Shocks and Labor Market Fluctuations Riccardo DiCecio (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis) C: Room 204 Financial Economics Portfolio Mispricing and the Cross Section of Asset Returns Scott Gilbert (Southern Illinois University) Strong Bubbles and Common Expected Bubbles in a Finite Horizon Model Jie Zheng (Washington University-St. Louis) Infrastructure and Poverty Reduction: Implications for Urban Development in Nigeria T.P. Ogun (Obafemi Awolowo University, Nigeria) Financial Market Integration of South Asian Countries: Panel Data Analysis Hasan Mohsin (Southern Illinois University-Carbondale) D: Room 208C Applied Economics Real-Time Exchange Rate Predictability with Taylor Rule Fundamentals Tanya Molodtsova (Emory University) Oil Prices and Real-Time Output Growth" Amelie B. Carlton (University of Houston) 4
5 Interwar Hoarding and Liquidity Traps and the 2008 Solvency Trap William H. Carlson (Duquesne University) Barger s Revised Quarterly NIPA Data: Conway Lackman (Duquesne University) E: Room 211 Inflation and Economic Policy Inflation Targeting or Fear of Floating in Disguise: A DSGE Approach Javier Reyes (University of Arkansas) Is Inflation an International Phenomenon Christopher J. Neely (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis) International Monetary Transmission to Emerging Economies, a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Approach; The Cases of Mexico and Brazil Martha Cruz-Zuniga (The Catholic University of America) Inflation and Output Growth Differentials in the Euro Area: The Role of Monetary Policy Tatevik Sekhposyan (University of North Carolina) F: Room 212 Banking Louisiana Community Banks: An Analysis of Recent Performance" Norbert Michel (Nicholls State University) Big Banks versus Small Banks: Good or Bad for Industries?" Indrit Hoxha (University of Houston) Importance of Quality of Information in Pricing, Market Structure and Efficiency: The Case of Banking" Marcela Giraldo (University of Florida) Refreshment Break Coffee, Tea, Soda 4:30 p.m.-5:00 p.m. (alcove next to Registration Table) Plenary Session I 5:00 p.m.-6:30 p.m., Room 208C Panel Discussion The Response to the Financial Crisis Moderator: Ron Harstad (University of Missouri Columbia) Panel: Joseph H. Haslag (University of Missouri -Columbia), Daniel L. Thornton (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis), and David C. Wheelock (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis) Each Panelist will have 15 minutes to present and there will be 45 minutes for discussion. Happy Hour 6:00 p.m. (Reynolds Alumni Center, Great Room) Dinner 7:30 p.m. (Reynolds Alumni Center, Great Room) Check in at the table outside the Great Room to get your dinner entrée card. 5
6 SATURDAY, March 28, 2009 Continental Breakfast 8:30 a.m. (alcove next to Registration Table) Plenary Session II 9:30 a.m.-10:30 a.m., Room 208C Expectations and Fiscal Stimulus Eric M. Leeper (Indiana University - Bloomington) Refreshment Break Coffee, Juice, Tea, Soda 10:30 a.m. 10:45 a.m. (alcove next to Registration Table) Concurrent Session IV 10:45 a.m.-12:45 p.m. A: Room 208D Applied Macroeconomics Explaining the Durations between Changes in Investment Risk Ratings: Evidence from a Multi-Country Study Manitra A. Rakotoarisoa (Economic and Social Development Department, UNFAO, Rome, Italy) Investment Horizon and Portfolio Allocation: A Spatial Dominance Approach Raul Ibarra-Ramirez (Texas A&M University) Optimal Monetary Policy in the Presence of Fiscal Foresight Nora Traum (Indiana University - Bloomington) Improved Measures of Financial Risk for Hedge Funds" Moohwan Kim (University of Missouri-Columbia) B: Room 208A Monetary Economics Crude Oil and Stock Markets: Stability, Instability, and Bubbles" J. Isaac Miller (University of Missouri-Columbia) Identifying Fiscal Policy Behavior: An Investigation of OLS Regression on the Fiscal Policy Rule Bing Li (Indiana University - Bloomington) How Does a Twisted Beliefs Shock Affect the Macroeconomy? Jacek Suda (Washington University in St. Louis) C: Room 204 Applied Microeconomics I The Effect of the Order of Implementation of Optimal Policies on Welfare Gains: The Case of Water Management Basharat A. Pitafi (Southern Illinois University-Carbondale) Understanding the Link Between Ethanol Production and Food Prices Nathalia Monteiro (Southern Illinois University - Carbondale) Gender Differences in Income Inequality across Immigrant Groups Mehmet E. Yaya (University of Alabama) Keeping Up with the Joneses in McMansions: Changes in Wealth Inequality between College and High-School Graduates Takashi Yamashita (Reed College) 6
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