Iranian Nuclear Issue
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1 Iranian Nuclear Issue Dr. Vladimir Orlov Special Advisor PIR Center MGIMO University Governance and Global Affairs M.A. Moscow, 2015
2 Iranian Nuclear Program (1) Dr. Vladimir Orlov
3 Iranian Nuclear Program (2) Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant Source: Iran's Arak facility Source: Isfahan Uranium Conversion Facility (UCF) Dr. Vladimir Orlov Source:
4 UN Security Council Resolutions on Iran 2010 Security Council Resolution June Security Council Resolution September 2008 Security Council Resolution March Security Council Resolution March Security Council Resolution December 2006 Security Council Resolution July 2006
5 UN Security Council Resolution 1929 Provides international sanctions on Iranian banks in the case of a suspicion that they are related to the development of an Iranian nuclear or missile program; Calls for vigilance exercising over transactions involving Iranian banks, including the Central Bank of Iran; Extends UN embargo on arms shipments to Iran as well as the "black list of Iranian companies to which restrictive measures may be applied; Calls for cargo inspection regime similar to the one that applies to North Korea
6 Chronology of negotiations over the Iranian Nuclear Program: June 15, 2013 Hassan Rouhani elected as President of Iran November 24, 2013 an interim agreement was reached; The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action was to be concluded by July 20, The interim agreement was extended until November 24, 2014, then until June 30, April 2, 2015 parameters for the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action were drafted July 14, 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action was adopted
7 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (1) keeps its uranium stockpile under 300 kg of uranium enriched up to 3.67% during the 15 year period IRAN limits itself to 6,104 operational centrifuges, with only 5,060 allowed to enrich uranium for 10 years (from 19,000 centrifuges of which 10,000 were operational) for 10 years converts Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant into a research center implements Additional Protocol redesigns Arak research reactor and ships out the spent fuel provides unprecedented access for IAEA to monitor its nuclear program
8 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (2) impose no new nuclear-related sanctions against Iran P5+1 terminate UN sanctions against Iran, some EU sanctions are terminated/suspended, the U.S. "ceases" application of its nuclear-related sanctions once IAEA verifies that Iran implements its part of the deal lift the ballistic missiles embargo in 8 years lift the arms embargo in 5 years UN SC closes Iranian nuclear dossier 10 years after the adoption of the agreement
9 Remaining issues Implementation of the JCPOA provisions by the parties IAEA investigation in the possible military dimension of the Iranian nuclear program Prohibition of attacks against nuclear facilities in the Middle East Creation of climate of trust in the region concerning nuclear safety and security and beginning of the regional dialogue on the full range of nuclear issues
10 Iranian Nuclear Issue: What does Iran Need? Providing external security and armed conflict risk minimization Regime internal political stability Technological progress and self-sufficiency External expansion, recognition as a regional superpower and as a magnet of attraction for all the Muslims in the Middle East
11 Iranian Nuclear Issue: Listening to the region Experts from Azerbaijan, Belgium, Canada, China, Egypt, India, Iran, Italy, Kuwait, Libya, Pakistan, Russia, Turkey, United Arab Emirates and the United States In order to increase trust among the neighbors Iran might: ratify the CTBT devote more attention to nuclear safety and security join the SCO Post-JCPOA Middle East needs: WMD-Free Zone regional institutions confidence building measures
12 iran.eng.pircenter.org
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