The Washington Area s Current Economic Performance

Transcription

1 Regional Economics Workshop The Washington DC Regional Economy Current Conditions and Outlook Lisa A. Sturtevant, Ph.D. Assistant Research Professor, School of Public Policy Deputy Director, Center for Regional Analysis George Mason University August 1, 212 The Washington Area s Current Economic Performance GMU Center for Regional Analysis 1

2 Annual % Change US GDP and Washington GRP Washington GRP US GDP Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, GMU Center for Regional Analysis $Billions 14 1, Largest Metro Areas 21 GRP Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 2

3 % Largest Metro Areas GRP Percent Change 27-1 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, GMU Center for Regional Analysis (s) 15 Annual Job Change MOTYC Washington MSA Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 3

4 (s) Largest Job Markets Job Change: Jun 211 Jun Washington + 36,1 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Jun 211 Jun 212 Washington MSA (s) Total = 36, Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 4

5 Professional & Business Services Washington MSA (s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Tot 211 = 688,7 (s) Annual Data Federal Government Washington MSA Annual Month over Year Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Tot 211 = 383,6 GMU Center for Regional Analysis 5

6 % 14 Unemployment Rate DC 8.2 U.S. 5.8 SMD 5.3 MSA NVA 2 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis The Changing Role of the Federal Government in the Washington Area GMU Center for Regional Analysis 6

7 $ Billions Federal Spending Washington MSA Total & Procurement Total Procurement Source: Census Consolidated Federal Funds Report $ Billions Federal Procurement Washington MSA Total = $862 Billion < 8-9 = $92 B > > < 91- = $28 B > < 1 1 = $562 B > Source: Census Consolidated Federal Funds Report GMU Center for Regional Analysis 7

8 (s) Eisenhower Kennedy Johnson Federal Employment Washington MSA + 8 Nixon - Ford Carter Reagan Bush 1 Clinton Bush Obama Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis 21 Structure of the Greater Washington Economy Non-Local Business 12. % Other Federal 1.7 % Local Serving Activities 34.8% Total Federal 39.8% Fed Wages & Salaries 1.% Procurement 19.1% Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis Other 1.5% Health/Ed. 4.5% Assn 1.8% Int l 3.5% GMU Center for Regional Analysis 8

9 Near-Term Economic Outlook for the Washington Metropolitan Area Growth Projections for Federal Spending and GRP: (in billions of 21 dollars, annual % change) Year Federal $s WMSA GRP 21 $169. $ % 2.6% % 2.7% 213.% 2.9% % 3.3% % 3.2% 215 $178.5 $491.2 Change % 15.6% Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis, assumes Federal cuts associated with sequestration do not go into effect GMU Center for Regional Analysis 9

10 % GDP/GRP Washington U.S Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Employment Change by Sub-state Region (s) D.C Sub. MD No. VA REGION Average Annual Change = 36, Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, based on 212 Benchmark data from BLS, Revised 5/1/212 NOTE: 211 Total is the sum of subregions and does not agree with the Mar 13, 212 published MSA total. Assumes Federal cuts associated with sequestration do not go into effect GMU Center for Regional Analysis 1

11 Total Federal and DoD Spending in DC, Maryland and Virginia, 21 (in billions of dollars) Area Total $s DoD $s % Total $s %US DoD United States $3,276.4 $ District of Columbia Maryland Virginia Total Area $294.3 $ Source: Consolidated Federal Funds Report, 21 The Employment Impact the of Budget Control Act of 211 on the Maryland-DC-Virginia Region State Job Losses* Job Losses* Total Job* DoD Cuts Non-DoD Cuts Losses Maryland 39,395 75,4 114,795 District of Columbia 15, , ,47 Virginia 136,191 71,38 27,571 Totals 19, ,18 449,773 % U.S. job losses *direct, indirect and induced job losses resulting from BCA-mandated federal spending reductions in FY 213; of the direct job losses totaling 161,161, an estimated 65,189 workers would be federal employees (4.4%) and 95,972 (59.5%) workers would be contractors, suppliers and vendors. Source: The Economic Impact of the Budget Control Act of 211 on DOD and Non-DOD Agencies, Stephen S. Fuller, y 17, 212. GMU Center for Regional Analysis 11

12 The Economic Impact of the BCA of 211 Total and Direct Gross State Product FY 213 (in billions of 213 dollars) State Direct GSP Loss Total GSP Loss District of Columbia $7.443 $ Maryland Virginia Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis George Mason University Center for Regional Analysis cra.gmu.edu GMU Center for Regional Analysis 12