Maine s Economic Outlook: 2009 and Beyond
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1 Maine s Economic Outlook: 2009 and Beyond January 2009 James Breece, Ph.D. University of Maine System
2 Outline 1. External Economic Drivers 2. Current Conditions 3. Economic Projections 4. Long-term Trends 5. An Opportunity for the Future
3 External Economic Drivers Global Recession Global Financial Crisis Volatile Oil Prices Meltdown in Mortgage Market Depressed household wealth Fall in Consumer confidence Weak Credit Markets Volatile Stock Market Weak Dollar Transitioning Economy The War Effort AT True Economic Recession
4 Current Conditions Taxable Sales Employment, Unemployment and Unemployment Rates Bankruptcy Filings Foreclosures
5 $17,800,000 Total Taxable Sales January 2001 to Date 8% $17,300,000 7% $16,800,000 6% Thous sands of Dolla ars $16,300,000 $15,800,000 $15,300,000 $14,800,000 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Gro owth Rate $14,300, % $13,800,000-1% 12 Month Moving Total Growth Rate Data: Maine Revenue Services
6 Total Consumer Taxable Sales January 2001 to Date 8% $15,100,000 7% 6% $14,600,000 5% lars Thou usands of Dol $14,100, $13,600,000 $13,100,000 4% 3% 2% 1% Grow wth Rate $12,600,000 0% -1% $12,100,000-2% 12 Month Moving Total Growth Rate Data: Maine Revenue Services
7 $3,375,000 $3,275,000 $3,175,000 General Merchandise Taxable Sales January 2001 to Date 8% 7% 6% 5% Thous sands of Dolla ars $3,075,000 $2,975,000 $2,875,000 $2,775,000 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Grow wth Rate $2,675,000-1% $2,575,000-2% 12 Month Moving Total Growth Rate Data: Maine Revenue Services
8 $2,625,000 Building Supply Taxable Sales January 2001 to Date 20% $2,525,000 $2,425,000 15% Thous sands of Dolla ars $2,325,000 $2,225, $2,125,000 $2,025,000 $1,925,000 10% 5% 0% Grow wth Rate $1,825,000 $1,725,000-5% $1,625,000-10% 12 Month Moving Total Growth Rate Data: Maine Revenue Services
9 $3,850,000 Auto/Transportation Taxable Sales January 2001 to Date 12% $3,750,000 $3,650,000 10% 8% 6% Thous sands of Dolla ars $3,550,000 $3,450,000 $3,350,000 $3,250, % 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% Grow wth Rate $3,150,000-8% 12 Month Moving Total Growth Rate Data: Maine Revenue Services
10 $2,375,000 Business Operating Taxable Sales January 2001 to Date 15% $2,275,000 $2,175,000 10% Thous sands of Dolla ars $2,075,000 $1,975,000 $1,875,000, $1,775,000 $1,675,000 5% 0% -5% -10% Grow wth Rate $1,575,000-15% 12 Month Moving Total Growth Rate Data: Maine Revenue Services
11 $1,525,000 Food Store Taxable Sales January 2001 to Date 8% $1,475,000 $1,425,000 6% 4% 2% lars Thou usands of Dol $1,375,000 $1,325,000 $1,275,000 0% -2% -4% -6% Grow wth Rate $1,225,000 $1,175,000-8% -10% -12% 12 Month Moving Total Growth Rate Data: Maine Revenue Services
12 Lodging Taxable Sales January 2001 to Date 10% $675,000 9% 8% lars Thou usands of Dol $625,000 $575,000 $525,000 $475,000 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Grow wth Rate 12 Month Moving Total Growth Rate Data: Maine Revenue Services
13 $1,975,000 Restaurant Taxable Sales January 2001 to Date 6% $1,925,000 $1,875,000 5% lars Thou usands of Dol $1,825,000 $1,775,000 $1,725,000 $1,675,000 $1,625,000 4% 3% 2% Grow wth Rate $1,575,000 1% $1,525,000 $1,475,000 0% 12 Month Moving Total Growth Rate Data: Maine Revenue Services
14 Other Retail Taxable Sales January 2001 to Date $2,125,000 12% $2,025,000 10% $1,925,000 8% Thous sands of Dolla ars $1,825,000 $1,725,000 $1,625,000 $1,525,000 Previous Economic Stimulus Package 6% 4% 2% 0% Grow wth Rate $1,425,000-2% 12 Month Moving Total Growth Rate Data: Maine Revenue Services
15 Current Conditions Taxable Sales Employment, Unemployment and Unemployment Rates Bankruptcy Filings Foreclosures
16 Monthly Total Employment Index January 1969 November 2008 US, New England & Maine US ME Jan-08 Jan-69 Jan-70 Jan-71 Jan-72 Jan-73 Jan-74 Jan-75 Jan-76 Jan-77 Jan-78 Jan-79 Jan-80 Jan-81 Jan-82 Jan-83 Jan-84 Jan-85 Jan-86 Jan-87 Jan-88 Jan-89 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Data: Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
17 Monthly Total Employment Index January 1969 November 2008 US, New England & Maine 5 yrs 8 yrs 10 yrs 10 yrs 5 yrs US ME Bubble Flat Current declines Jan-69 Jan-70 Jan-71 Jan-72 Jan-73 Jan-74 Jan-75 Jan-76 Jan-77 Jan-78 Jan-79 Jan-80 Jan-81 Jan-82 Jan-83 Jan-84 Jan-85 Jan-86 Jan-87 Jan-88 Jan-89 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Data: Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
18 100,000 95,000 Maine Manufacturing Employment Total Manufacturing Change -35% (-34,288) 90,000 85,000 80,000 75,000 70,000 65,000 60,000 55,000 50, , Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
19 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Unemployment Bangor, Lewiston-Auburn, & Portland-South Portland-Biddeford Portland-South Portland-Biddeford Bangor Lewiston Auburn JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV Data: ME Dept. of Labor
20 Unemployment Rates US & Maine US Maine JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV Data: ME Dept. of Labor
21 Unemployment Rates Bangor, Lewiston-Auburn, and Portland-South Portland-Biddeford Lewiston-Auburn Bangor Portland-South Portland-Biddeford JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV Data: ME Dept. of Labor
22 12/20/2008 Unemployment Claims California Michigan Pennsylvania New York Ohio Illinois Texas Indiana Kentucky North Carolina Florida Washington Georgia Wisconsin Missouri Oregon New Jersey Virginia Alabama Minnesota South Carolina Iowa Tennessee Massachusetts Arkansas Nevada Arizona Maryland Connecticut Kansas Mississippi Colorado Louisiana Idaho Utah Oklahoma Nebraska Montana West Virginia i i Hawaii Maine New Hampshire Alaska New Mexico North Dakota Rhode Island Delaware Vermont South Dakota Wyoming District of Columbia Claims Change from last year -2,000 8,000 18,000 28,000 38,000 48,000 87,877 Data: US Dept. of Labor
23 Current Conditions Taxable Sales Employment, Unemployment and Unemployment Rates Bankruptcy Filings Foreclosures
24 Quarterly Change in Bankruptcy Filings 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% New Regulations in % 30.0% ME 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% NE US -10.0% -20.0% Dec- 06 Jan- 07 Feb-0 7 Mar-0 Apr-07 May Jun-0 7 Jul-07 Aug- 07 Sep- 07 Oct-07 Nov- 07 Dec- 07 Jan- 08 Feb- 08 Mar- 08 Apr-08 May- 08 Jun- 08 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 US 3.8% 9.0% 8.7% 4.0% 3.4% 8.5% 12.5% NE 11.0% 15.5% 5% 15.7% 06% 0.6% -2.9% 29% 17.7% 7% 12.5% ME 5.8% 21.3% 40.1% -14.9% -2.3% 4.3% 44.2% Data: Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
25 Maine Bankruptcy Filings 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Data: Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
26 Current Conditions Taxable Sales Employment, Unemployment and Unemployment Rates Bankruptcy Filings Foreclosures
27 Properties with Foreclosure Filings in November, 2008 United States MI MI VA VA Data: RealtyTrac.com Data: RealtyTrac.com
28 Properties with Foreclosure Filings in November, 2008 Maine Data: RealtyTrac.com Data: RealtyTrac.com
29 Projections Consensus Economic Forecasting Commission Revenue Forecast Committee Federal Reserve Past Recessions
30 Consensus Economic Forecasting Commission Projections of Annual Employment and Population Growth Wage & Salary Employment (Annual Percentage Change) Actual Forecast November Personal Income (Annual Percentage Change) November
31 Revenue Forecasting Committee Summary of December 2008 Revenue Revisions General Fund Summary FY08 Actual FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 Current Forecast In millions $3,087 $3,095 $3,146 $3,168 Annual % Growth 23% 2.3% 02% 0.2% 16% 1.6% 07% 0.7% Net Increase (Decrease) In millions ($140) ($177) ($152) Revised Forecast In millions $3,087 $2,955 $2,969 $3,016 $3,106 $3,196 Annual % Growth 23% 2.3% -4.3% 43% 05% 0.5% 16% 1.6% 30% 3.0% 29% 2.9%
32 Revenue Forecasting Committee Summary of December 2008 Revenue Revisions General Fund Summary FY08 Actual FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 Current Forecast In millions $3,087 $3,095 $3,146 $3,168 Annual % Growth 23% 2.3% 02% 0.2% 16% 1.6% 07% 0.7% Net Increase (Decrease) In millions ($140) ($177) ($152) Revised Forecast In millions $3,087 $2,955 $2,969 $3,016 $3,106 $3,196 Annual % Growth 23% 2.3% -4.3% 43% 05% 0.5% 16% 1.6% 30% 3.0% 29% 2.9% As demand for services continue to grow
33 Fed Predicts Worsening Economy (December 2008) GDP to decline through mid-year 2009 Slow recovery to begin second half of 2009 Unemployment to rise into 2010 Current recession could be the longest since the Great Depression
34 Fed s Options: Interest rates already near zero Can buy more financial assets (print money) But the risks are: Inflation Devaluation Smart Fiscal Stimulus Needed
35 Past Recessions Business Cycle Reference Date Net Job Loss in US Net Job Loss in Maine Start of Recession # of Months # # % (000's) (000's) % Dec % % Nov , % 6 1.7% Jan % % Jul , % % Jul , % 11% % 34% Mar , % % Dec Months & Continuing 1, % 8 1.3% Data: National Bureau of Economic Research
36 Past Recessions Business Cycle Reference Date Net Job Loss in US Net Job Loss in Maine Start of Recession # of Months # # % (000's) (000's) % Dec % % Nov , % 6 1.7% Jan % % Jul , % % Jul , % 11% % 34% Mar , % % Dec Months & Continuing 1, % 8 1.3% Data: National Bureau of Economic Research
37 Past Recessions Business Cycle Reference Date Net Job Loss in US Net Job Loss in Maine Start of Recession # of Months # # % (000's) (000's) % Dec % % Nov , % 6 1.7% Jan % % Jul , % % Jul , % 11% % 34% Mar , % % Dec Months & Continuing 1, % 8 1.3% Data: National Bureau of Economic Research
38 Long-Term Trends Value-added added Economic Activity Relative value-added State Rankings
39 $70,000 Value-Added Economic Activity (real GDP per Worker) NE $65,000 $60,000 US $55,000 $50,000 ME $45,000 $40, Data: Bureau of Economic Analysis
40 Value-Added Economic Activity (real GDP per Worker) $70,000 $65,000 $60,000 Portland-South Portland-Biddeford $55,000 $50,000 Bangor $45,000 Lewiston-Auburn $40, Data: Bureau of Economic Analysis
41 2007 Value-Added Economic Activity (real GDP per Worker) District of Columbia Delaware New York Connecticut New Jersey California Massachusetts Alaska Illinois Washington Virginia Maryland Texas United States Rhode Island Oregon Nevada Colorado North Carolina Michigan Arizona Georgia Minnesota Louisiana Pennsylvania New Hampshire Ohio Hawaii Florida Indiana Tennessee New Mexico Wisconsin Wyoming Nebraska Kentucky Iowa Alabama Missouri Kansas Utah South Carolina South Dakota Vermont Oklahoma Arkansas West Virginia i i Maine Idaho Mississippi North Dakota Montana $48,033, 47th $0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 $90,000 $100,000 Data: US Dept. of Labor
42 Relative Value-Added (real GDP per worker compared to national average) New England States CT 120 MA National Average RI NH 80 VT ME Data: Bureau of Economic Analysis
43 Relative Value-Added (real GDP per worker compared to national average) Maine and Local Areas National Average Portland South Portland Biddeford ME Bangor Lewiston Auburn Data: Bureau of Economic Analysis
44 State Rankings Maine th th Personal Income Per Capita 35 th 36 th Gross Domestic Product 44 th 44 th Value-Added Activity 47 th th Data: Bureau of Economic Analysis
45 Outline 1. External Economic Drivers 2. Current Conditions 3. Economic Projections 4. Long-term Trends 5. An Opportunity for the Future
46 How Can Maine Jump-start its Economy? Generate more high VALUE-ADDED economic activities iti
47 Examples of High Value-Added Precision manufacturing not just welding Coated publication papers not tjust pulpwood Eco-tourism not just lodging Building materials not just logs Furniture not just stump wood Composites not just lumber Financial services not just banking Telecommunications not just phone-lines Yachts not just boats Yogurt not just milk Vodka not just potatoes
48 What is required? Entrepreneurial management R&D activities based on Maine s natural resources Reverse brain-drain ; generate a brain-gain Skilled/educated workforce in critical areas Based on a strong higher h education system In partnership with businesses, government, and non-profits
49 An Opportunity for Bangor s Economic Future Bangor currently has the ability to establish a High Value-Added Development Park The Park could be available this summer for immediate economic impact Where is this you might ask?
50 Home Depot
51 Home Depot Wal-Mart Shaw s
52 Target Home Depot Wal-Mart Burlington Coat Factory Shaw s
53 High Value-Added Development Park
54 High Value-Added Development Park Global l Selling Points of the Park Conveniently located between an international airport and a research university Turn-key ready (with utilities, parking, etc) Of significant size to draw international interest (approximately 600,000 sq. ft) Access to a skilled labor market, affordable housing, and quality of life amenities
55 High Value-Added Development Park Film studios Conceptual lactivities i i Financial processing center Global distribution center Networks and communications Medical/pharmaceutical research or distribution Aerospace technologies Computer software and systems Precision engineering and manufacturing Alternative energies
56 High Value-Added Development Park Economic Benefits (Similar to the North Carolina Research Triangle Park) Increased employment Higher paying jobs Vibrant economy Global recognition We have the opportunity; lets take it!
3+ 3+ N = 155, 442 3+ R 2 =.32 < < < 3+ N = 149, 685 3+ R 2 =.27 < < < 3+ N = 99, 752 3+ R 2 =.4 < < < 3+ N = 98, 887 3+ R 2 =.6 < < < 3+ N = 52, 624 3+ R 2 =.28 < < < 3+ N = 36, 281 3+ R 2 =.5 < < < 7+
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