How are Things Going? Thoughts to Barry County

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1 How are Things Going? Thoughts to Barry County Jim Robey February 25,

2 Upjohn Institute for Employment Research The Institute is an activity of the Upjohn Unemployment Trustee Corporation, which was established in 1932 to administer a fund set aside by Dr. Upjohn, founder of the Upjohn Company. MISSION: The Upjohn Institute for Employment Research is a private, nonprofit, nonpartisan, independent research organization devoted to investigating the causes and effects of unemployment, to identifying feasible methods of insuring against unemployment, and to devising ways and means of alleviating the distress and hardship caused by unemployment. 2

3 Regional and Economic Planning Services Data Dissemination & Analysis Economic Impact Studies Economic & Workforce Development Strategy Talent Assessment Urban & Regional Planning 3

4 Forecasts are too optimistic for 2016? 5 Gross Domestic Product and Employment Change 1,000 GDP Change (%) Forecast Employment Change (000s) GDP Change (L) Employment Change (R) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Survey, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Philadelphia Federal Reserve Consensus Forecast 4

5 The employment forecast suggests more modest employment growth in the next two years Annual Employment Change (000,000s) ,000/ mth Consensus Forecast 221,000/mth 197,000/mth* 133,000/mth** Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, *Philadelphia Federal Reserve Consensus Forecast, and **University of Michigan Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics 5

6 Consumers are confident as borrowing indicates Billions ($) Consumer Confidence and Change in Consumer Debt Index: 1995 = 100 Consumer debt (L) Consumer confidence (R) Source: New York Federal Reserve and Conference Board 6

7 Real wages for production workers are flat, but may be on the rise 22 Average Hourly Wage for Production Workers (2015$) Hourly Wages ($) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Survey and Consumer Price Index 5

8 The calendar isn t calling yet for a recession if you trust history Employment Index From Business Cycle Peak present M1 M6 M11 M16 M21 M26 M31 M36 M41 M46 M51 M56 M61 M66 M71 M76 M81 M86 M91 M96 M101 M106 M111 M116 M121 M126 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Survey 8

9 National nondurables: growth or no growth? Employment Change (%) Projection Gross Product Change (%) Food Beverage and Tobacco Product Textile Mills Textile Product Mills Apparel Leather and Allied Product Wood Product Paper Printing and Related Support Activities Petroleum and Coal Products Chemical Plastics and Rubber Products Source: Moody s Analytics and Upjohn Institute 9

10 National durables: more of the same? Projection Nonmetallic Mineral Product Primary Metal Employment Change (%) Fabricated Metal Product Machinery Computer and Electronic Product Electrical Equipment, Appliance, and Component Transportation Equipment Gross Product Change (%) Furniture and Related Product Miscellaneous 10 Source: Moody s Analytics and Upjohn Institute

11 Mixed national business conditions for 2016 Interest rates remain low following the bump by the Fed in December Fuel prices are expected to remain low Sluggish international markets High value of the dollar Labor and skills shortages Commodity prices are low 11

12 Moving on to Michigan 12

13 Employment growth in Michigan was solid and spread across many sectors 30,000 Employment Change, 2014 to ,000 20,000 Employment Change 15,000 10,000 5, ,000-10,000-15,000 Wholesale Info. Manuf. Transport., Util. Construct. Retail Finance Prof. and Tech. Admin. Education Hospitality Health Govt. Other Srv. 13 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Survey

14 Real wages are down since 2007, but may be rising 26 Average Hourly Wage for Production Workers (2015$) 24 Hourly Wages ($) Michigan United States 14 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Survey and Consumer Price Index

15 Latest University of Michigan employment forecast shows continued growth Employment Forecast 4 th Quarter to 4 th Quarter ,233 jobs (1.6%) ,000 jobs (1.9%) 2016* 61,100 jobs (1.4%) 2017* 64,800 jobs (1.5%) Source: University of Michigan Research Seminar on Quantitative Economics 15

16 Michigan is following the nation Employment Forecast Annual Change (%) United States Michigan Source: Philadelphia Federal Reserve Consensus Forecast and University of Michigan Research Seminar on Quantitative Economics 16

17 Next Up, Barry County 17

18 Employment growth in the region has been comparable to the state since the end of the Great Recession 110 Total Employment Index (2006 = 100) *2015 data through second quarter only * Barry County Michigan United States Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages 18

19 The local labor market is tighter than the state and the nation 16 Unemployment Rate % of Labor Force Barry County Michigan United States Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Local Area Unemployment Statistics 19

20 Labor markets are tight: Barry County is just over 4% with the U.S. at 4.9% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Local Area Unemployment Statistics 20

21 The national LFPR was 62.6 in 2015; Barry County was at 66.1 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Local Area Unemployment Statistics and Upjohn Institute 21

22 Real wages declined until 2015 Average Weekly Wage ($) Average Weekly Wage, All Workers (2015$) *2015 data through second quarter only * Barry County Michigan United States Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages 22

23 Wages in the region are right in the middle Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages and Upjohn Institute 23

24 Local Conditions Auto sales are expected to remain solid through 2016 and 2017 Other manufacturing sectors, including furniture and aerospace are flat Labor and skills shortages Commodity prices are low Low unemployment rate Availability of commercial/industrial real estate Lack of investment in residential capital 24

25 News of the week: a mixed bag February Consumer Confidence was down to the lowest point since July: 92 Conference Board Leading Indicators -.2% January CPI came in at 0% January Industrial Production up.9% December revised down.3% to -.7% Jobless Claims at 262k (7k less than consensus) Nationally, home prices are up about 5.4% 25

26 Questions and Comments? Upjohn Institute: Jim Robey Director of Regional Economic Planning Services Brian Pittelko Regional Analyst 26

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