RISK MANAGEMENT FEBRUARY 2001 AIR LAND SEA APPLICATION CENTER ARMY, MARINE CORPS, NAVY, AIR FORCE FM MCRP C NTTP AFTTP(I) 3-2.

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1 ARMY, MARINE CORPS, NAVY, AIR FORCE RISK MANAGEMENT FM MCRP C NTTP AFTTP(I) AIR LAND SEA APPLICATION CENTER FEBRUARY 2001 DISTRIBUTION RESTRICTION: Approved for public release; distribution is unrestricted MULTISERVICE TACTICS, TECHNIQUES, AND PROCEDURES

2 FOREWORD This publication has been prepared under our direction for use by our respective commands and other commands as appropriate. JOHN N. ABRAMS General, USA Training and Doctrine Command BRUCE B. KNUTSON, JR. Lieutenant General, USMC Commanding General Marine Corps Combat Development Command ROBERT G. SPRIGG Rear Admiral, USN Navy Warfare Development Command LANCE L. SMITH Major General, USAF Headquarters Air Force Doctrine Center

3 1. Scope PREFACE This publication describes risk management functions and responsibilities applicable to the joint task force (JTF) and service staffs. It applies risk management planning procedures to the military decision making process and employs the Joint Operation Planning and Execution System (JOPES) for the operation planning team. 2. Purpose This publication provides a consolidated multiservice reference addressing risk management background, principles, and application procedures. To facilitate multiservice interoperability, this publication identifies and explains the risk management process and its differences and similarities as it is applied by each service. 3. Applicability The audience for this publication includes combatant command, JTF, and functional and service component staffs. The target staff level is the JTF headquarters staff. This publication serves as a source document for developing service and joint manuals, publications, and curricula, and may be used as a stand-alone document. 4. Implementation Plan Participating service command offices of primary responsibility will review this publication, validate the information, and reference and incorporate it in service and command manuals, regulations, instructions, and curricula as follows: Army. The Army will incorporate this publication in U.S. Army training and doctrinal publications as directed by the, U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC). Distribution is in accordance with DA Form R. Marine Corps. The Marine Corps will incorporate the procedures in this publication in U.S. Marine Corps (USMC) training and doctrinal publications as directed by the Commanding General, U.S. Marine Corps Combat Development Command (MCCDC). Distribution is in accordance with Marine Corps Publication Distribution System (MCPDS). Navy. The Navy will incorporate these procedures in U.S. Navy (USN) training and doctrinal publications as directed by the, Navy Warfare Development Command (NWDC). Distribution is in accordance with Military Standard Requisitioning and Issue Procedures (MILSTRIP) Desk Guide and Navy Standing Operating Procedures (NAVSOP) Publication 409. Air Force. The Air Force will validate and incorporate appropriate procedures in accordance with applicable governing directives. Distribution is in accordance with Air Force Instruction , Volume User Information a. The TRADOC-MCCDC-NWDC-Headquarters (HQ) Air Force Doctrine Center (AFDC) and Air Land Sea Application (ALSA) Center developed this publication with the joint participation of the approving service commands. ALSA will review and update this publication as necessary. b. This publication reflects current joint and service doctrine, command and control organizations, facilities, personnel, responsibilities, and procedures. Changes in service MARINE CORPS: PCN i

4 protocol, appropriately reflected in joint and service publications, will be incorporated in revisions of this document. c. We encourage recommended changes for improving this publication. Key your comments to the specific page and paragraph and provide a rationale for each recommendation. Send comments and recommendations directly to Army U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command ATTN: ATDO-A Fort Monroe, VA DSN COMM (757) Marine Corps Commanding General U.S. Marine Corps Combat Development Command ATTN: C42 (Director) 3300 Russell Road Quantico, VA DSN COMM (703) Navy Navy Warfare Development Command ATTN: N5 686 Cushing Road Newport, RI DSN COMM (401) Air Force HQ Air Force Doctrine Center ATTN: DJ 216 Sweeney Boulevard Suite 109 Langley Air Force Base, VA DSN COMM (757) Address: afdc.dj@langley.af.mil ALSA ALSA Center ATTN: Director 114 Andrews Street Langley Air Force Base, VA DSN COMM (757) alsa.director@langley.af.mil ii

5 FM MCRP C NTTP AFTTP(I) FM MCRP C NTTP AFTTP(I) U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command Fort Monroe, Virginia Marine Corps Combat Development Command Quantico, Virginia Navy Warfare Development Command Newport, Rhode Island Headquarters Air Force Doctrine Center Maxwell Air Force Base, Alabama 15 February 2001 RISK MANAGEMENT Multiservice Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures for Risk Management TABLE OF CONTENTS Page EXECUTIVE SUMMARY... Chapter I RISK MANAGEMENT FUNDAMENTALS... I-1 1. Background... I-1 2. Risk Management Goal... I-1 3. Key Aspects of Risk Management... I-1 4. Principles of Risk Management... I-2 5. Levels of Risk Management... I-3 6. Risk Management Process Overview... I-3 7. Risk Management Process Application Guidelines... I-3 8. Relationship of Force Protection to Risk Management... I-5 Chapter II RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS AND OPERATIONAL CONSIDERATIONS... II-1 1. Background...II-1 2. Application of Risk Management...II-1 3. Integration of Risk Management...II-7 4. Analysis Models...II-8 Chapter III STAFF FUNCTIONS AND RESPONSIBILITIES... III-1 1. Background... III-1 2. Responsibilities... III-1 v iii

6 3. Integration into Training and Operations... III-6 4. Review of the Risk Management Process... III-6 Appendix A Risk Management Tools... A-1 Appendix B Force Protection Working Group... B-1 References... References-1 Glossary... Index... Glossary-1 Index-1 Figures I-1. Continuous Application of Risk Management... I-4 II-1. Identify the Threats...II-1 II-2. Assess the Threat...II-2 II-3. Develop Controls and Make Risk Decisions...II-3 II-4. Implement Controls...II-5 II-5. Supervise and Review...II-6 A-A-1. Sample Completed Risk Management Worksheet...A-A-1 A-B-1. Sample Force Protection Priority Matrix... A-B-1 A-D-1. Risk Assessment Matrix... A-D-1 A-E-1. Sample Risk Control Options Planning Matrix...A-E-1 B-1. Potential Sources for the FPWG... B-1 B-2. Example FPWG Meeting Agenda... B-2 B-3. Sample Risk Considerations Matrix... B-5 Tables II-1. Criteria for Effective Controls...II-3 II-2. Risk Management Execution (Risk Management in Deliberate Planning)...II-7 II-3. Risk Management Execution (Risk Management in Crisis Action Planning)...II-8 II-4. Considerations and Potential Threats Analyzed (Man Element, 5-M Model)...II-11 II-5. Considerations and Potential Threats Analyzed (Machine Element, 5-M Model)...II-11 II-6. Considerations and Potential Threats Analyzed (Media Element, 5-M Model)...II-12 II-7. Management Tools and Examples Analyzed (Management Element, 5-M Model)...II-12 A-C-1. Sample Force Protection Tasks, Conditions, Desired Effects, and Activities... A-C-1 A-D-1. Risk Severity Categories... A-D-2 A-D-2. Probability Definitions... A-D-3 A-E-1. Examples of Risk Control Options...A-E-2 iv

7 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Risk Management This publication Provides multiservice tactics, techniques, and procedures for tactical level risk management in the planning and execution of operations in a joint environment. Provides a basic risk management process that may be used by all services. Applies to all elements of a force that assists in planning and conducting force protection. Provides risk management tools for commanders and staffs to use to manage risk during planning, preparation, and execution of joint operations. Chapter I Risk Management Fundamentals Chapter I introduces risk management as a process to assist decision makers in reducing or offsetting risks. It identifies the goal, key aspects, and principle concepts of the process; provides general guidelines for applying the process; and gives an overview of the process: Identifying threats. Assessing threats to determine risks. Developing controls and making risk decisions. Implementing controls. Supervising and reviewing. Chapter II Operational Considerations and Implementation Chapter II describes the actions involved in applying the risk management process; identifies pitfalls, types of controls, and feedback requirements; and integrates the risk management process into the planning process. This chapter describes how common situation analysis tools support the risk management process. Chapter III Staff Functions and Responsibilities Chapter III ties the risk management process to the chain of command and the staff directorates, and describes how leader involvement at all levels is necessary for the process to be effective. This chapter also describes the integration of the risk management process into all aspects of operations and training and illustrates how constant review of the process leads to improvement in the process. v

8 PROGRAM PARTICIPANTS The following commands and agencies participated in the development of this publication: Army HQ TRADOC (ATDO-A) & (ATBO-SO), Ingalls Rd Bldg 133 Room 7, Ft. Monroe, VA Combined Arms Center (CAC), Combined Arms Doctrine Directorate (CADD), Ft Leavenworth, KS OG-D, BCTP, Ft Leavenworth, KS CDR, XVIII Airborne Corps, Ft Bragg, NC Army Safety Center, Training Division, Ft Rucker, AL USAREUR, DCSPER, Unit 29351, APO AE, Marine Corps Marine Corps Combat Development Command, Joint Doctrine Branch (C427) 3300 Russell Rd, 3rd Floor Suite 318A, Quantico, VA Marine Corps Combat Development Command, MSTP (C54) 2076 South Street, Quantico, VA Commandant of the Marine Corps (Code SD), 2 Navy Annex, Room, 3317, Washington, DC Navy OPNAV, N09K, 2000 Navy Pentagon 5E816, Washington, DC , Navy Warfare Development Command/N5, 686 Cushing Rd, Newport, RI , Naval Safety Center, 375 A Street, Norfolk, VA COMPHIBGRU TWO, NAB Little Creek, Norfolk, VA Air Force HQ Air Force Doctrine Center, 155 N Twining Street, Maxwell Air Force Base, AL AFDC Detachment 1, 216 Sweeny Bvld. Ste 109, Langley Air Force Base, VA HQ USAF/SE, 9700 G Ave SE, Kirkland Air Force Base, NM vi

9 Chapter I RISK MANAGEMENT FUNDAMENTALS 1. Background Risk management is a process that assists decision makers in reducing or offsetting risk (by systematically identifying, assessing, and controlling risk arising from operational factors) and making decisions that weigh risks against mission benefits. Risk is an expression of a possible loss or negative mission impact stated in terms of probability and severity. The risk management process provides leaders and individuals a method to assist in identifying the optimum course of action (COA). Risk management must be fully integrated into planning, preparation, and execution. s are responsible for the application of risk management in all military operations. Risk management facilitates the mitigation of the risks of threats to the force. For the purposes of this document, threat is defined as a source of danger any opposing force, condition, source, or circumstance with the potential to negatively impact mission accomplishment and/or degrade mission capability. a. Each of the services uses similar but slightly different processes. This publication provides a single process to enable warfighters from different services to manage risk from a common perspective. b. Risk management is useful in developing, deploying, and employing the joint force. Development concerns force design, manpower allocation, training development, and combat material developments. Deploying and employing the joint force generates concerns in force protection and balancing risk against resource constraints. c. Military operations are inherently complex, dynamic, dangerous and, by nature, involve the acceptance of risk. Because risk is often related to gain, leaders weigh risk against the benefits to be gained from an operation. The commander s judgment balances the requirement for mission success with the inherent risks of military operations. Leaders have always practiced risk management in military decision making; however, the approach to risk management and degree of success vary widely depending on the leader's level of training and experience. d. Since the Korean conflict, United States forces have suffered more losses from noncombat causes than from enemy action. Key factors contributing to those losses include (1) Rapidly changing operational environment. (2) Fast-paced, high operations tempo and high personnel tempo. (3) Equipment failure, support failure, and effects of the physical environment. (4) Human factors. 2. Risk Management Goal The fundamental goal of risk management is to enhance operational capabilities and mission accomplishment, with minimal acceptable loss. 3. Key Aspects of Risk Management a. Risk management assists the commander or leader by (1) Enhancing operational mission accomplishment. (2) Supporting well-informed decision making to implement a COA. (3) Providing assessment tools to support operations. I-1