THE POLITICS OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS GOVT-323. Spring 2013 Tuesday and Thursday, 5:00-6:15pm Walsh 398

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1 THE POLITICS OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS GOVT-323 Spring 2013 Tuesday and Thursday, 5:00-6:15pm Walsh 398 Professor: Matthew Kroenig Office: 656 ICC Office Hours: Tuesday and Thursday 3:30pm-4:30pm Course Description Nuclear weapons have occupied a central role in international politics ever since their introduction onto the world stage in The use of nuclear weapons by the United States on Hiroshima and Nagasaki compelled Japanese surrender and brought World War II to a close. The vast nuclear arsenals of the United States and the Soviet Union were fundamental to the bi-polar, strategic relationship that structured international politics for over fifty years during the Cold War. And while many analysts hoped that the collapse of the Soviet Union would lead to a reduction in the influence of nuclear weapons on international relations, it was not to be so. The threat of nuclear proliferation resurfaced as India, Pakistan, and more recently, North Korea have conducted nuclear tests. Other regional powers, including Iran, Iraq, and Libya, have pursued, or are pursuing, nuclear capabilities. The terrorist attacks against the United States on September 11, 2001 demonstrated that if terrorists, intent on carrying out mass-casualty attacks, acquired nuclear weapons, the results would likley be catastrophic. Indeed, in his 2012 annual report to Congress on the projected threats to the national security of the United States of America, Director of National Intelligence James Clapper assessed that nuclear proliferation poses one of the greatest threats to U.S. national security. This course analyzes the role of nuclear weapons in international relations. We will begin by learning the different paths by which countries acquire nuclear weapons. We will examine why nuclear weapons spread and the effect of nuclear proliferation on international politics. We will also consider policy options for preventing nuclear proliferation and managing its consequences. To accomplish this task, we will draw on major theoretical approaches, including proliferation optimism, proliferation pessimism, and nuclear brinkmanship theory. We will also analyze important cases of nuclear proliferation and instances of militarized disputes between nuclear-armed states.

2 Requirements Research Paper The central assignment of this course will be a major research paper (20-30 pages). Students may choose a paper topic from a variety of questions addressed in this course, including but not limited to: why do countries build nuclear weapons? And, what determines the outcomes of crises between nuclear powers? To prepare for the writing of the paper, there will be a number of shorter assignments. The process of writing the research paper will involve several stages to ensure that your research design and writing gets adequate feedback. You will be required to come to my office hours (Tuesday and Thursday, 3:30-4:30) by February 28 to discuss your research ideas. You will then write up a one page proposal that includes the phrase in this paper, I will argue that, as well as an outline of the paper, and sample bibliography. This must be delivered to my mailbox in the Government Department by March 19. The class will not meet on the week of March 19, but rather class time will be devoted to one-on-one follow up meetings with me. You must have a summary of your paper ready to present to the class for their comments by April 16. The paper will be due in my mailbox in 681 ICC on or before May 6. Participation Class will consist of an in-depth discussion of the week s readings, moderated by the professor. Students are expected to have carefully read all of the readings before the class for which they are assigned. Students are also expected to participate fully in that week s discussion. Each week, a different set of students will volunteer to lead off that week s discussion with a short summary presentation of that week s reading. 2

3 Procedures Office Hours The professor will hold office hours each week. For substantive questions about readings and papers, you are encouraged to come to the professor s office hours. In addition, you are encouraged to submit questions by . Late Papers Deadlines are strict. The only exceptions will be for documented medical emergencies. Predictable events, such as a heavy workload or extracurricular activities, are not grounds for an extension. All appeals for extensions will be considered on a case-by-case basis. Late papers will be penalized one full letter grade for each day they are late. Grading Grades will be based on the absolute merit of your work, not in relation to others. In other words, there is no grading curve employed in this class. Your final grade will be calculated as follows: Paper 70% Participation 30% Grade Disputes All written material in this class will be graded by the professor. Any questions regarding your grades can be directed to the professor after a 48-hour waiting period. You are entitled to a satisfactory explanation for why you received the grade you received. If you are not satisfied with the explanation provided, you may submit a written explanation for why you believe you that your work was misgraded. The work will then be regraded by the professor with the understanding that the professor may ultimately issue a grade that is higher, the same, or lower than the original grade given. Plagiarism Plagiarism or other acts of academic dishonesty will not be tolerated. As defined by the Georgetown University Honor Council, plagiarism is the act of passing off as one's own the ideas or writings of another. Blackboard A Blackboard site has been created for this class. You can access the site at On the site, you will find announcements, the syllabus, pdf copies of the readings, and information about assignments. 3

4 Reading Assignments In addition to the books and articles below, you should read the international affairs section of a major national newspaper, such as the New York Times or the Washington Post, on a daily basis. You might also consider reading the Economist, which is generally considered the best weekly news magazine available. Discussions will often include references to contemporary events, so it is critical that you are aware of important developments in international affairs. The following required texts are available online or at the Georgetown University Bookstore: Joseph Cirincione, Jon Wohlfstahl, Miriam Rajkumar, Deadly Arsenals: Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Threats, 2nd Edition (Washington DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2005). Available online. Fred Kaplan, The Wizards of Armageddon (Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 1983) Matthew Kroenig, Exporting the Bomb: Technology Transfer and the Spread of Nuclear Weapons (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 2010). Thomas C. Schelling, Arms and Influence (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1967). All other readings for this class are available on Blackboard in the Readings section, except where otherwise noted. 4

5 Introduction January 10 Introduction Week 1 (January 15-17) Iran Latest IAEA Report on Iran, available at Kenneth Pollock and Ray Takeyh, Taking on Tehran, Foreign Affairs (March/April 2005). James Lindsay and Ray Takeyh, After Iran Gets the Bomb, Foreign Affairs (March/April 2010). Matthew Kroenig, Time to Attack Iran, Foreign Affairs (January/February 2012). Week 2 (January 22-24) The Nuclear Revolution Thomas Schelling. Arms and Influence. Chapters 1-3. Matthew Kroenig. Nuclear Superiority and the Balance of Resolve: Explaining Nuclear Crisis Outcomes. International Organization, forthcoming Week 3 (January 29-31) Nuclear Physics 101 Chapter 3: Nuclear Weapons and Materials (Deadly Arsenals). The Atomic Archive, The Effects of Nuclear Weapons, pp. 1-24, available online at Chapter 4: Biological and Chemical Weapons, Agents, and Proliferation (Deadly Arsenals) Week 4 (February 5-7) Using the Bomb Barton Bernstein, The Atomic Bombings Reconsidered, Foreign Affairs, Vol. 74, No. 1 (1995), p Nina Tannenwald, The Nuclear Taboo: The United States and the Normative Basis for Nonuse, International Organization, Vol. 53, No. 3 (1999), pp Charles Glaser and Steve Feter, Counterforce Revisited: Assessing the Nuclear Posture Review s New Missions, International Security, Vol. 30, No. 2 (Fall 2005), pp Week 5 (February 12-14) Why Do Nuclear Weapons Spread? Scott D. Sagan, Why Do States Build Nuclear Weapons: Three Models in Search of A Bomb, International Security, Vol. 21, No. 3 (Winter 1996/1997), pp (Bb) 5

6 Etel Solingen, The Political Economy of Nuclear Restraint, International Security, Vol. 19, No. 2 (Fall 1994), pp Matthew Kroenig, Exporting the Bomb, Chapter 5. Week 5 (February 19-21) The Supply Side of Nuclear Proliferation Matthew Kroenig, Exporting the Bomb. Entire book. Week 6 (February 26-28) The Effect of Nuclear Proliferation Scott D. Sagan, Nuclear Instability in South Asia. Kenneth N. Waltz, Nuclear Stability in South Asia. Matthew Kroenig, The History of Proliferation Optimism: Does it have a Future? Spring Break (March 2-10) Week 7 (March 12-14) Nuclear Strategy Fred Kaplan, The Wizards of Armageddon. Entire book. Week 8 (March 19-21) Meetings to discuss paper proposals Week 9 (March 26-April 2) International Control Chapter 2: The International Nonproliferation Regime (Deadly Arsenals) Appendix A: The Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons (Deadly Arsenals) The New START Treaty. Available at Thomas Schelling and Morton Halpern Chapter 1 from Strategy and Arms Control (1986). Easter Break March 28-April 1 April 2 International Control (Cont.) April 4 Class Canceled. International Studies Association Conference 6

7 Week 10 (April 9-11) Nuclear Terrorism Matthew Bunn and Anthony Wier, Terrorist Nuclear Weapon Construction: How Difficult? Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science (2006). Graham Allison, How to Stop Nuclear Terror, Foreign Affairs (January/February 2004). William Dunlop and Harold Smith, Who Did It? Using International Forensics to Detect and Deter Nuclear Terrorism, Arms Control Today, Vol. 36 No. 8 (2006). Week 11 (April 16-18) Class presentation of research projects Week 12 (April 23-25) Global Zero George P. Schultz, William J. Perry, Henry A. Kissinger, and Sam Nunn, A World Free of Nuclear Weapons, The Wall Street Journal, January 4, Ivo Daalder and Jan Lodal, The Logic of Zero: Toward a World without Nuclear Weapons. Foreign Affairs (Nov/Dec 2008) Josef Joffee and James W. Davis, Less than Zero: Bursting the Disarmament Bubble. Foreign Affairs (January/February 2011). Matthew Kroenig, Nuclear Zero? Why Not Nuclear Infinity? The Wall Street Journal, July 30,