Trends of Digitalisation: Relevance for Healthcare Forecasting? Example of the Branch Monitoring of Healthcare Professions in Rhineland- Palatinate

Transcription

1 Trends of Digitalisation: Relevance for Healthcare Forecasting? Example of the Branch Monitoring of Healthcare Professions in Rhineland- Palatinate Roland Krick Ministry for Social Affairs, Labour, Health and Demography Rhineland-Palatinate Director of the Department Healthcare Professions Folie 1

2 Topics: 1. Relevance of Forecasting 2. Importance of Trends for Forecasting 3. Incorporating Trends in Forecasting: Example of the Branch Monitoring of Healthcare Professions in Rhineland-Palatinate 3.1 Forecasting model and Results 3.2 Framework for Considering Other Trends 4. Résumé: Learning from Foresight Slide 2

3 1. Relevance of Forecasting Why do we need forecasting? For planning adequate training and education measures For developing a supportive infrastructure For building sustainable regional/local labour market policies For providing orientation for individuals (pupils, students, clients, employees, unemployed) For securing the economical and social basis of regions/localities Forward-looking planning/shaping instead of reactive action Slide 3

4 2. Importance of Trends for Forecasting 2.1 What do we know about trends? Megatrends: Demographic change Globalisation/EU-integration Digital transformation Further trends: Health care services long-term care Health care services acute care: regulation / DRGs Age of retirement and how evidence-based is the information? Slide 4

5 2. Importance of Trends for Forecasting 2.1 What do we know about megatrends in Germany? Trend Phenomenon Relevance for forecasting Demographic change Globalisation/EUintegration Digital transformation More older and less young people More mobility of goods, services and labour Changes in Communication, working relationships Rationalisation specialisation/skills Increase in labour replacement Increase in demand for goods and services for older people Decrease of number of people entering labour force Effects on health and elderly care Loss and gains of labour Heterogenious labour force High qualified and unskilled labour Branches: service industry, science, logistics, Gains in qualified jobs and losses of low qualified and unskilled positions in production, service/shared economy, communication, information Large enterprises Slide 5

6 2. Importance of Trends for Forecasting 2.2 How to validate this information? Idea on the general developments and its effects Mostly no details on effects related to special target groups of the labour market or branches Not a lot of knowledge on the impact of framework conditions for example of regions, localities, enterprises But there are differences between the trends Population driven-developments (?) Economy-driven developments (?) Technology-driven developments (?) Slide 6

7 3. Incorporating Trends in Forecasting: Example of the Branch Monitoring of Healthcare Professions in Rhineland-Palatinate Guiding Question: How to incorporate trends in a model and its environment? Slide 7

8 3. Incorporating Trends in Forecasting: Example of the Branch Monitoring of Healthcare Professions in Rhineland-Palatinate 3.1 Forecasting Model and Its Results The Health and Elderly Care Branch in Germany: Governance, Structure and Development 18 health and elderly care professions Regulated at the federal state level (including VET and continuing education) Sectors (hospitals, mobile elderly care providers, stationary elderly care homes, rescue services, physiotherapeutic practices ) Services are financed through health and care insurances, social assistance schemes for care ( Help for Care (SGB XII)) and privately Slide 8

9 3. Incorporation of Trends in Forecasting: Example of the Branch Monitoring of Healthcare Professions in Rhineland-Palatinate 3.1 Forecasting Model and Its Results Model 18 professions 36 counties and independent cities Matching of present demand and supply (2015) Future (2020, 2025, 2030) F o r e c a s t i n g Quantitative linking of of presence and future ( ) Relativisation through past (2002, 2005, 2010) and future (2020, 2030) Slide 9

10 3. Incorporation of Trends in Forecasting: Example of the Branch Monitoring of Healthcare Professions in Rhineland-Palatinate 3.1 Forecasting Model and Its Results Theoretical Framework for the Model Baseline: demographic change/transformation plus regulation / governance and globalisation/eu-integration Demand (in 2025) Supply (in 2025) Increase in demand for elderly/health care (extension demand) Increase in age-related replacement (replacement demand) Reduced/stable number of young employees entering the branch Migration/labour mobility = more professionals = less professionals? Increasing mismatch Slide 10

11 3. Incorporation of Trends in Forecasting: Example of the Branch Monitoring of Healthcare Professions in Rhineland-Palatinate 3.1 Forecasting Model and Its Results (baseline 2010 for registered nurses) State (average) Demand 2020 Supply 2020 Replacement Extension Total Total (Mis-)Match % +8% -3% -11% Slide 11

12 3. Incorporation of Trends in Forecasting: Example of the Branch Monitoring of Healthcare Professions in Rhineland-Palatinate 3.1 Forecasting Model and Its Results (Registered Nurses) (Mis-) Match (past) (Mis-)Match (present) (Mis-) Match (future) Rhineland- Palatinate % of employees -7% +7% -4% -11% Slide 12

13 3. Incorporation of Trends in Forecasting: Example of the Branch Monitoring of Healthcare Professions in Rhineland-Palatinate 3.1 Forecasting Model and Its Results (Health and Elderly Care Professionals) First Résumé Demographic transformation is guiding force for the development of the health and elderly care sector Population data provides solid basis for forecasting However: stable patient-professional relation is anticipated as well as constant demand for health- and elderly care services Slide 13

14 3. Incorporation of Trends in Forecasting: Example of the Branch Monitoring of Healthcare Professions in Rhineland-Palatinate 3.2 Framework for Considering Other Megatrends Globalisation More patients from abroad, more demand? More professionals from abroad, more supply? Digitalisation Currently small numbers and qualitative requirements; no systematic overview e-health, e-care, less professionals? In exploratory stage; no impact assessment possible Slide 14

15 3. Incorporation of Trends in Forecasting: Example of the Branch Monitoring of Healthcare Professions in Rhineland-Palatinate 3.2 Framework for Considering Other Megatrends How to observe/monitor the potential effects of these trends? Building a knowledge base to continuously further develop the model (improve model specification), 5 sources: Permanent board of strategic actors (stakeholder of healthcare, politics, science and data providers) Communication formats with practitioners in counties (workshops with different target groups) Politics, science, data-providers Slide 15

16 3. Incorporation of Trends in Forecasting: Example of the Branch Monitoring of Healthcare Professions in Rhineland-Palatinate 3.2 Framework for Considering Other Trends Communication framework for a continuous monitoring on the effects of trends Bottom-up and top-down Data-based/evidence-based politics Work-in-progress Institutionalised, established, systematic Vital, resources available Linking status-quo-observations, forecasting, foresight, political planning/steering and evaluation Challenge: Transformation of individual and collective knowledge into reliable data (real-time data) Slide 16

17 4. Résumé: Learning from Foresight Provision of openings towards foresight by integrating communication elements and keeping the strength of a quantitative model Slide 17

18 Thank you! Roland Krick Ministry for Social Affairs, Labour, Health and Demography Rhineland-Palatinate Director of the Department Healthcare Professions Folie 18