The Korean Peninsula situation after the UN resolution 2270 Wang Junsheng
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1 The Korean Peninsula situation after the UN resolution 2270 Wang Junsheng National Institute of International Strategy, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS).
2 Ⅰ. Why China supports the UN resolution The first real reason for China to make this decision is because China wants to punish DPRK and wants to send clear strong signal to DPRK. Since DPRK new leader took office, the strategic divergence between China and DPRK enlarged, especially in NK nuclear issue. This is the second nuclear test since Kim Jong-un took office. China cannot continue endure it more but exert strongly punishment.
3 The second real reason is China s international responsibility. As we know, offering public goods to international community is a good channel to be accepted as a major power. Security is the one of most important public goods. The fourth nuclear test definitely disturbed the security situation in this region, so China has to show our responsibility through supporting the severe sanctions such as UNSC resolution 2270.
4 THAAD issue only played very negative role to encourage China to support the UN 2270 resolution.
5 Ⅱ. What lessons China and ROK should learn from dealing with the fourth DPRK nuclear test From China s side: 1. The public response in ROK will be better if President Xi received or gave phone call with President Park as early as possible. 2. The unilateral sanction toward DPRK issued by China should be earlier.
6 For ROK side, 1. ROK should understand the complicated background of peninsula situation, especially for China. So ROK should give China some time to make assessment. 2. ROK should pay more attention to China s vital interest, especially since we are friends. DPRK made nuclear test January 6, ROK immediately put forward the idea of THAAD deployment, which is opposed clearly by China.
7 3. ROK should give public opinion good guidance. I think the essence of Sino-ROK relation before president Park took office is doing business. After Park took office, we began to make friends, the positive image of each other improved a lot. News like President Park feel angry to President Xi only can play negative role for improving public opinion for our relations.
8 Ⅲ. The factors that will affect the future Korean Peninsula situation 1. How will DPRK response the UN 2270 resolution. If DPRK does not provoke this resolution further, and cooperate with China to improve the dialogue of transforming armistice agreement into peace treaty in Korean peninsula, the situation will be better. Otherwise, vicious circle may continue.
9 2. How Sino-DPRK relations will develop. Facing the imbalance geopolitical relations in Korean peninsula, the stable bilateral relations between China and DPRK is not only in our two countries interest, but also good for ROK and US. DPRK definitely will feel unhappy because China supports this UN resolution, but whether DPRK will continue or change the unfriendly attitude toward China still remains to be seen.
10 3. THAAD issue. THAAD issue is not only bilateral issue between ROK and US, but regional issue involving China s interest. It is also not only military technology issue for protecting ROK, but also the strategic competition issue between China and US, which is a zero-sum game. So if THAAD is deployed in ROK, it will be treated by China as ROK has gave up their balanced position between China and US, which will definitely affect Sino-ROK cooperation in dealing with DPRK issue. It will also increase trust-deficit between China and US.
11 4. The joint military drill by US and ROK. The joint military drill between US and ROK should be strictly limited into Korean peninsula. Under the background of UN resolution 2270, China will not want to see such as aircraft carriers come into this area, which will make this region s situation more complex.
12 5. Armistice agreement transformed into peace treaty in Korean peninsula. China is really serious about this proposal. The detailed proposal will ask DPRK give promise that denuclearization is still their last goal. It will also discuss the US-DPRK relations and US military presence in Korea Peninsula and other issues, which means every party should make some concessions during this dialogue. Without this concession, every question the Korean peninsula is facing today cannot be really resolved.
13 Thanks
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