Iraq Monthly Analytics Report / October By Paul Allum / Director - Intelligence

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Barbara Franklin
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1 By Paul Allum / Director - Intelligence

At A Glance Iraq-wide Attack Types Attacks By Province Casualties From Attacks Attacks Per Week Attack Type October September Car bombing Suicide bombing Increase/ Decrease 14 7 100% 86 31 177% Small

2 At A Glance Iraq-wide Attack Types Attacks By Province Casualties From Attacks Attacks Per Week Attack Type October September Car bombing Suicide bombing Increase/ Decrease % % Small arms % Roadside bomb % Indirect fire % Province October September Increase/ Decrease Kurdistan Nineveh % Kirkuk % Diyala % Salahdin % Anbar Baghdad Babil Basra TOTAL Killed/ Wounded October September Total 714 / / 1216 Civilians 559 / / 925 Iraqi Forces 155 / / 291 Week Week Week Week > September: Average weekly attacks > October: Average weekly attacks

IS retained its unconventional reach in Anbar with a record number of car and suicide bombings against security forces and infrastructure.

3 Countrywide Developments The battle for Ramadi continued with ISF retaking areas north and west of the city. Without dedicated air support it seems unlikely the ISF will achieve a decisive victory anytime soon. IS retained its unconventional reach in Anbar with a record number of car and suicide bombings against security forces and infrastructure. The militants expanded a bombing campaign towards Salahdin following its setback in Baiji. The counterstrike was short-lived after ISF regained control with assistance from coalition warplanes. In Diyala, a low level insurgency campaign is being waged by IS along the Diyala River Valley. There were fewer but more effective attacks, while a huge suicide bombing in Khalis showed that IS can attack in-depth in the province and seemingly at will. Southern Salahdin: > Heavy fighting continued between ISF and IS between Samarra s western flanks and Lake Thar Thar following a series of suicide truck bombings on security checkpoints. IS do not pose a threat to the broader security picture IVO Samarra but their attacks highlight poor security in the western desert area. Anbar: > October witnessed the launch of the much heralded Ramadi liberation operation spearheaded by ISF with auxiliary support from Sunni tribal forces. ISF have enveloped Ramadi, but remain bogged down in its rural belts. > IS detonated 36 SVBIEDs in the Ramadi area this month, accounting for over a third of Iraq-wide total SVBIED attacks. > IS also detonated 26 SVBIEDs in the Fallujah and Karma areas. PMU operations in Fallujah are at a deadlock due to militiamen mobilizing towards the northern front. > ISF failed to secure Karma following its 10 th security operation since early IS have local support and a safe haven around the Baghdad belts area which allows them to regenerate supplies and forces during security operations. Unconventional Attacks: > IS conducted its first series of countrywide coordinated car bombings since 2014, targeting civilians in Basra, Khalis and al- Hosseiniya (N) Baghdad. The mass casualty bombings were intended to demonstrate IS resilience during a period of increased pressure against the group. > October experienced 100 SVBIEDs across the centre and north of the country, the highest monthly total since May > It is important to note that a high proportion of SVBIEDs were destroyed prior to detonation, particularly in Anbar and Salahdin where ISF are equipped with antitank missiles. Image 1: Casualties from conflict by province 3

Northern Iraq Developments PM Haider al-abadi launched Operation Labaik Ya Hussein (at your service Hussein) resulting in the successful liberation of Baiji city and its refinery, which have been

4 Northern Iraq Developments PM Haider al-abadi launched Operation Labaik Ya Hussein (at your service Hussein) resulting in the successful liberation of Baiji city and its refinery, which have been contested since November USled airstrikes increased exponentially one week prior to the Baiji offensive, although American warplanes were not directly involved during the assault. A new front is emerging towards the Makmoul Mountains where joint ISF, KSF and PMU forces are coordinating to close in on IS territory. Peshmerga continue to fight a costly battle southwest of Kirkuk, gaining limited ground but effectively denying IS the freedom to operate in or close to Kirkuk city. Further north along the trigger line a joint YBS/PKK and Peshmerga offensive began in the Sinjar area with US air support. An assault on Sinjar proper was underway at the time of writing. Coalition Airstrikes: > The US-led coalition airstrikes continued in an upward trend across Iraq, with a 22 percent increase between September and October. > Countrywide monthly airstrikes have more than tripled between August and September. > US strategy shifted from targeting IS across multiple governorates to focusing larger payloads on Ramadi and the Sinjar-Mosul corridor. Northern Iraq: > ISF, PMUs and coalition air strikes recaptured Baiji and its oil refinery ending months of tactical deadlock. Clearing operations are now underway in the Makhool mountains, with both Shirqat and Hawijah in ISF crosshairs. > The Peshmerga advance towards Hawijah in September has effectively stalled in part due to a reduction in coalition air support. > A disparate alliance of KDP, YPG, PKK and Yazidi Peshmerga have commenced an assault on Sinjar city IS has responded with an uptick in suicide bombings across northwest Nineveh. key Major IS Attacks Peshmerga offensive Coalition airstrikes Contested Area Kurdistan Region of Iraq Image 1: The map icons show an approximation of key events close to the KRI demarcation line 4

Barzani s KDP Centralizes Power KDP President Masud Barzani s refusal to relinquish the presidency after his term expired 19 August has effectively pushed the KRI into unchartered territory for the

5 Barzani s KDP Centralizes Power KDP President Masud Barzani s refusal to relinquish the presidency after his term expired 19 August has effectively pushed the KRI into unchartered territory for the first time since political stability returned to the region in However, the opposition has backed down and is refocusing its efforts on discussions over the new Kurdistan constitution, scheduled for completion in time for the 2017 general elections in the region. Peshmerga Forces The Peshmerga forces are split between the two main parties, although nominally answer to Barzani as commander-in-chief. Despite rivalries, the Peshmerga has maintained defensive strength along the trigger line while IS militants have tried to exploit tensions with a number of car bomb attacks in Erbil, demonstrating that security measures are not foolproof. Peshmerga forces currently have some serious limitations in offensive operations beyond their core territory, however their capabilities continue to grow with international support. > Threats of dire legal and political actions from the KDP s main detractor, the Gorran (Change) movement, failed to materialize despite KDP-aligned security forces expelling Parliament Speaker Muhammad Sadiq and fellow Gorran ministers from entering Erbil 12 October. > In response, Kurdistan s political elites agreed to suspend parliament, with PUK ministers refusing to publicly backfill Gorran-held ministries (which include Finance and Peshmerga Affairs). > Angry protests organized by a coalition of 180 civic society groups reached its highpoint in Sulimaniyah, Halabja, Khaniqan, and Kalar over delayed salaries to government employees 8-14 October. Subsequent violent protests in Sulimaniyah against KDP offices were ad hoc and lacked centralized leadership. The KDP accused Gorran supporters of targeted violence although the movement denied the claims and called for supporters to cooperate with the security forces. > Non-violent demonstrations continued throughout the month with civil servants, especially teachers, organizing in PUKcontrolled areas around Sulimaniyah province. Simmering civil unrest is likely to continue in November, although arrests and intimidation against activists will likely quell any further spates of violence. > For its part, the KDP is attempting to form a new cabinet without Gorran, although the PUK is unlikely to accommodate such a move. Image 1: Kurdish forces line the streets in Sulimaniyah during 8 October protests 5

6 Baghdad Security Situation Baghdad witnessed a similar number of attacks compared to September, although violence during the Shia Ashura celebrations was much lower than the previous year. Anticorruption demonstrations continued in the capital with protesters growing restless against PM Haider al-abadi s slow pace of reforms due to many of his initial measures being tied up in parliament. PMU: Peace Companies Saraya al-salam > Leaders: Sadrists Trend > Strength: 10,000 50,000 although mostly part-time Saraya al-salam is a reinvention of Moqtada al-sadr s Mehdi Army, which was disbanded in 2008 following Operation Charge of the Knights. Sadr reactivated his militia in response to an expanding IS presence in Iraq. Given the Sadrists strong leaning towards Iraqi (Shi a) nationalism, Sadr rebuffed Iranian orders to send his militia to Syria. Thus, the PCs should be viewed as a competitor to other Iranian proxy PMUs like AAH and KH. PC s primary operational areas are the Shrine city of Samarra, Sunni-majority Jurf al- Sakhr and east Baghdad. The group also participated in Baiji s liberation operation. > Demonstrations continues in central Tahrir Square, Firdos Square, Jisr Diyala and Doura, with activists demanding an end to corruption of the political class. > Protesters complained of attacks by thugs hired by politicians that are threatened by the protests. The 22 September abduction of Jalal al-shahmani, an outspoken activist remains primary to demonstrator grievances, as well as the demand for Chief Justice Midhat al-mamud to be fired for his support to VP Nuri al-maliki during the 2011 protest movements. > The single deadliest attacks of the month was a twin suicide bombing at a checkpoint in Aden Square, killing 24 and a car bomb explosion killing 10 and wounding 18 in Hosseiniya. > Ashura was relatively free from violence with one suicide bombing on an Ashura tent in Shaab and an IED attack on a Shi a procession in Nahrawan. > Ashura 2014 saw IS launch nine SVBIEDs resulting in over 220 casualties. Whether PMU fortification or IS expending resources elsewhere, it was a security success for PM al-abadi who has been struggling under pressure to pass a reforms package that has failed to achieve backing from the ruling elite, despite initial enthusiasm back in September. > The anti-government Mukhtar Army militia launched Katyusha rockets at the Iranian group People s Mujahedin of Iran at Camp Liberty (NE) Baghdad International Airport, resulting in 22 casualties. OCT SEPT AUG Tarmiyah Shaab Taji Madain Mahmudi Monthly Attacks in Baghdad IED SAF VBIED Attack Types In The Five Most Violent Districts UB IED VBIED SVBIED SAF UVIED 6

7 GLOSSARY AAA AAH AAS AQI BIAP CP CWIED DBS EFP EOD FP GoI HG IA IC IDF IDP IED IP IS ISCI ISOF ISF IVO IZ JAM JRTN (K) KH KDP Anti Aircraft Artillery Asaib al-haq Ansar al-sunna Al-Qaida in Iraq Baghdad International Airport Checkpoint Command Wire IED Drive by Shooting Explosively Formed Projectile Explosive Ordnance Disposal Federal Police Government of Iraq Hand Grenade Iraqi Army Iraqi Civilian Indirect Fire Internally Displaced Person/s Improvised Explosive Device Iraqi Police Islamic State Supreme Islamic Council of Iraq Iraqi Special Operations Forces Iraqi Security Forces In Vicinity Of International Zone Jaysh Al-Mahdi Jaysh Rijal al-tariqa al-naqshbandia Killed Kataib Hezbollah Kurdistan Democratic Party KRG KRI KSF LN MAIED PC PM PMU PSC PSD PUK QRF RCIED RKG-3 RPG SAF SAFIRE SLC SOI SOMO SVBIED SVEST TMC TTP UVIED VBIED (W) Kurdistan Regional Government Kurdistan Region Iraq Kurdish Security Forces Local National Magnetically Attached IED Peace Companies (Saraya al-salam) Prime Minister Popular Mobilisation Units Private Security Company Personal Security Detail Patriotic Union of Kurdistan Quick Reaction Force Remote Controlled IED Anti-Armour Hand Grenade Rocket Propelled Grenade Small Arms Fire Surface to Air Fire State of Law Coalition Sons of Iraq State Oil Marketing Organisation Suicide Vehicle Borne IED Suicide Vest Tribal Military Council Tactics Techniques and Procedures Under Vehicle IED Vehicle Borne IED Wounded

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Update Paper - Battle for Mosul and US strategy for Iraq

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