FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY PROJECT PAPER ON A PROPOSED ADDITIONAL CREDIT IN THE AMOUNT OF SDR5.8 MILLION (US$8.97 MILLION EQUIVALENT) TO THE

Transcription

1 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY PROJECT PAPER ON A PROPOSED ADDITIONAL CREDIT IN THE AMOUNT OF SDR5.8 MILLION (US$8.97 MILLION EQUIVALENT) TO THE REPUBLIC OF RWANDA FOR THE Report No: RW SECOND EMERGENCY DEMOBILIZATION AND REINTEGRATION PROJECT April 7, 2014 Post Conflict & Social Development Practice Group (AFTCS) Country Department AFCE2 Africa Region This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.

2 CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (Exchange Rate Effective on February 28, 2014) Currency Unit = Rwanda Francs US$1.00 = RwF680 US$1.00 = SDR FISCAL YEAR January 1 December 31 AF AG BP BNK CAS CPS DDR DRC EDPRS ESMF FDLR FY GoR OP IDA MDTF OP OPCS ORAF PDO PRSP RDF RSA SEDRP SDR VCT VSW ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS Additional Financing Armed Group Bank Policy Basic Needs Kit Country Assistance Strategy Country Partnership Strategy Disarmament, Demobilization and Reintegration Democratic Republic of Congo Economic Development and Poverty Reduction Strategy Environmental and Social Management Framework Forces Démocratiques pour la Libération du Rwanda Fiscal Year Government of Rwanda Operational Policy International Development Association Multi Donor Trust Fund Operational Policy Operational Policy and Country Services Operational Risk Assessment Framework Project Development Objective Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper Rwanda Defense Force Recognition of Service Allowance Second Emergency Demobilization and Reintegration Project Special Drawing Rights Voluntary Counseling and Testing Vulnerability Support Window Vice President: Makhtar Diop Country Director: Diarietou Gaye Sector Director: Jamal Saghir Sector Manager: Ian Bannon Task Team Leader: Natacha Lemasle i

3 REPUBLIC OF RWANDA SECOND EMERGENCY DEMOBILIZATION & REINTEGRATION PROJECT ADDITIONAL FINANCING IDA Table of Contents Abbreviations and Acronyms... i Additional Financing Data Sheet... iii I. Introduction... 1 II. Background... 1 III. Rationale for the Additional Financing... 2 IV. Proposed Changes... 3 V. Appraisal Summary... 5 ANNEX 1: REVISED RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND MONITORING... 8 ANNEX 2. OPERATIONAL RISK ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK (ORAF) ANNEX 3. LESSONS LEARNT ii

4 REPUBLIC OF RWANDA SECOND EMERGENCY DEMOBILIZATION & REINTEGRATION PROJECT ADDITIONAL FINANCING DATA SHEET Country Director: Diarietou Gaye Sector Director: Jamal Saghir Sector Manager: Ian Bannon Team Leader: Natacha Lemasle Project ID: P Expected Effectiveness Date: July 1, 2014 Lending Instrument: IPF Additional Financing Type: Scale-up Basic Information - Additional Financing (AF) Sectors: Social Development Themes: Conflict Prevention and Post- Conflict Reconstruction (100%) Environmental category: B, partial assessment Expected Closing Date: June 30, 2016 Joint IFC: No Joint Level: No Basic Information - Original Project Environmental category: B, partial Project ID: P assessment Project Name: Second Emergency Demobilization & Reintegration Project Expected Closing Date: June 30, 2014 (SEDRP) Joint IFC: No Lending Instrument: ERL Joint Level: No AF Project Financing Data [ ] Loan [X] Credit [] Grant [ ] Guarantee [ ] Other: Proposed terms: IDA Regular Credit Source Total Project Cost: Co-financing: Borrower: AF Financing Plan (US$ million) Total Amount (US$ million) Total Bank Financing: IBRD IDA Client Information iii

5 Recipient: Government of Rwanda Responsible Agency: Rwanda Demobilization and Reintegration Commission P.O. Box 7277 Rwanda Tel: Project Implementation Period Start: April 30, 2014 End: June 30, 2016 AF Estimated Disbursements (US$ million) FY FY 2015 FY 2016 Annual 4,300,000 4,670,000 Cumulative 4,300,000 8,970,000 Project Development Objective and Description Original Project Development Objective: The project Development Objective (PDO) is to support the efforts of the GoR to: (i) Demobilize members of armed groups of Rwandan origin and the Rwandan Defense Forces (RDF); and (ii) Provide socioeconomic reintegration support to such members following demobilization, with a particular focus on female, child, and disabled ex-combatants. There have not been any changes to the original objectives, design, or scope. The project includes the following five components: (i) Demobilization, (ii) Reinsertion, (iii) Reintegration, (iv) Mainstreaming of program activities, and (v) Program Management. Revised Project Development Objective: N/A Project description: Component 1: Demobilization (US$2,267,600). Principal activities include general sensitization and counseling regarding civilian life, HIV/AIDS voluntary counseling and testing (VCT), socio-economic profiling, and support of basic needs while encamped, including catering services and basic health care. Component 2: Reinsertion (US$703,800) includes an initial three-month period of assistance to help ex-combatants meet their basic needs from the day of discharge. The project provides assistance in accordance with past practices to ensure consistency and equal treatment of all demobilized, and includes a Basic Needs Kit (BNK), and Recognition-of-Service Allowance (RSA) for regular military personnel. Dependents of Armed Groups members are also provided with a Basic Reinsertion Kit, as well as basic support and rehabilitation services. Component 3: Reintegration (US$3,292,400) is the process of facilitating the reincorporation of disenfranchised groups into mainstream society. Assistance includes: micro-project and Vulnerability Support Window (VSW) grants, psycho-social counseling, HIV/AIDS awareness training, and community sensitization, support to capacity building of excombatants cooperatives, and targeted reintegration assistance for children and the severely disabled. Component 4: Mainstreaming of program activities (US$96,000) particularly related to the disabled, chronically ill, psycho-social assistance to ex-combatants, and services that target children. A key element of the component involves the preparation, in collaboration with iv

6 relevant ministries, of a phasing out strategy to mainstream activities and subcomponents to the various ministries and agencies. Component 5: Program Management (US$2,051,946) includes support for decentralized structures; regular project administration of procurement, disbursement, and internal management tasks; extensive monitoring and evaluation of project activities; and on-going support to reinserted ex-combatants to facilitate linkages with appropriate services. Unallocated: US$558,254 Safeguard and Exception to Policies Safeguard policies triggered: Environmental Assessment (OP/BP 4.01) Natural Habitats (OP/BP 4.04) Forests (OP/BP 4.36) Pest Management (OP 4.09) Physical Cultural Resources (OP/BP 4.11) Indigenous Peoples (OP/BP 4.10) Involuntary Resettlement (OP/BP 4.12) Safety of Dams (OP/BP 4.37) Projects on International Waterways (OP/BP 7.50) Projects in Disputed Areas (OP/BP 7.60) Is approval of any policy waiver sought from the Board? Has this been endorsed by Bank Management? (Only applies to Board approved operations) Does the project require any exception to Bank policy? Has this been approved by Bank Management? [x]yes [ ] No [ ]Yes [ x] No [ ]Yes [ x] No [ ]Yes [ x] No [ ]Yes [ x] No [ ]Yes [ x] No [x]yes [ ] No [ ]Yes [ x] No [ ]Yes [ x] No [ ]Yes [ x] No [ ]Yes [ x] No [ ]Yes [ ] No [ ]Yes [ x] No [ ]Yes [ ] No Conditions and Legal Covenants Financing agreement reference Description of Condition/Covenant Due Date N/A N/A N/A v

7 I. INTRODUCTION 1. Additional financing. This Project Paper seeks the approval of the Executive Directors to provide an additional financing in the amount of US$8.97 million to the Republic of Rwanda for the Second Emergency Demobilization and Reintegration Project (SEDRP). 2. Scale up. This Additional Financing (AF) was formally requested by the Government of Rwanda (GoR) to finance the costs associated with scaling up the original project through extending demobilization and reintegration services for additional incoming ex-combatants from Armed Groups (AG) members repatriating from eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Proposed additions to the original project would include: (i) Provision of social orientation for dependents of AG; (ii) Mental health screening, counseling, treatment, or referral for adult and children ex-combatants; (iii) Support to disabled ex-combatants through Integrated Rehabilitation and Production Workshops (equipment and training). Integrated Rehabilitation and Production Workshops are built by the Government of Rwanda in areas of settlements for disabled ex-combatants. Each workshop is designed to include a clinic, as well as shops and entertainment and socialization areas, to provide tailored economic and social reintegration opportunities to disabled ex-combatants. 3. Outcomes. The expected outcomes include: (i) increased number of beneficiaries settled in their chosen communities, (ii) improved capacity of beneficiaries to advance their own social and economic reintegration, and (iii) increased access of ex-combatants to social services through central and local government service provision mechanisms (as opposed to through program services). II. BACKGROUND 4. Original Project. The original project was a follow up to the Emergency Demobilization and Reintegration Project (EDRP) that became effective on September 27, 2002 and closed on December 31, The original grant of SDR5.2 million (US$8.0 million equivalent) for the SEDRP was approved on August 27, 2009, and became effective on June 9, The original project included (i) a US$2 million government counterpart contribution, (ii) an MDTF Grant which became effective on January 5, 2011 for US$4.6 million, and (iii) a second MDTF Grant which became effective on January 5, 2011 for US$4.5 million. A first AF for US$2.3 million also from the MDTF was signed on December 30, The US$2.3 million AF was processed separately from the AF for IDA, to ensure continuation of the program beyond December 31, 2013, and extend the project until June 30, The GoR and IDA agreed it would be beneficial to continue the collaboration for Demobilization and Reintegration activities in Rwanda beyond the current closing date stated in the legal documents of June 30, This is why this new AF is being proposed. 5. The Project Development Objective (PDO) is to support the efforts of the GoR to (i) Demobilize members of Armed Groups of Rwandan origin and the Rwandan Defense Forces (RDF); and (ii) Provide socioeconomic reintegration support to such members following demobilization, with a particular focus on female, child, and disabled ex-combatants. The project includes the following five components: (i) Demobilization, (ii) Reinsertion, (iii) Reintegration, 1

8 (iv) Mainstreaming of program activities, and (v) Program Management. The PDO of the original project remains valid under the AF. 6. Project performance. Current progress for the key performance indicators at the PDO level, as per the original results framework, includes: All eligible combatants from the RDF have been demobilized, with 4,000 RDF demobilized (of which 4 female, and 106 disabled). All eligible adults and minors have been demobilized from Armed Groups (AG), with 4,005 adult members of AG (including 24 female and 121 disabled) and an additional 240 minors released. 100 percent of demand for demobilization services was met (original target: 100 percent) 62 percent of ex-combatants who have received Reintegration Grants are economically active (in comparison with 70 percent of community members who are economically active; original target: 75 percent) 78 percent of ex-combatants who report social acceptance in their communities (91 percent for female ex-combatants, and 76 percent for disabled ex-combatants; original target: 80 percent). 7. Project implementation. Implementation of the ongoing project is satisfactory and all of OP/BP parameters for AF are satisfied. There are no unresolved financial, procurement or safeguards issues. ISR ratings over the last 18 months have been consistently satisfactory or moderately satisfactory, with satisfactory ratings for progress towards achievement of development objectives and overall implementation progress. III. RATIONALE FOR THE ADDITIONAL FINANCING 8. Consolidating results. The SEDRP is a well-performing project that provides a powerful incentive for Rwandan combatants fighting in eastern DRC to lay down arms and reintegrate peacefully in their communities in Rwanda. The SEDRP has demonstrated that it is an effective instrument to support efforts toward regional peace stabilization and social cohesion. The project has acquired considerable knowledge and experience, as well as credibility and legitimacy with beneficiaries and partners, and has established effective checks and balances for tracking, monitoring, and following up on ex-combatants who have been demobilized. To date, the GoR has responded fully to the demand for demobilization and reintegration of AG eligible under the original project. However, the continued presence of AG members of Rwandan origin is considered as an ongoing destabilizing factor in the region and contributes to insecurity in eastern DRC. The repatriation of remaining members of AG eligible under the project is still a vital and unmet objective of the GoR. 9. Strategic alignment. The proposed AF will support the GoR s efforts to facilitate the long-term peaceful reintegration of ex-ag members (except for those accused of genocide crimes) into civilian life. The proposed AF is fully aligned with the Economic Development and Poverty Reduction Strategy 2 (EDPRS2) and the objective of maintaining domestic and regional 2

9 peace and stability through increasing the rule of law, unity and reconciliation, and ensuring stability in Rwanda s development process. The current CAS acknowledged the importance of these activities as part of wider efforts to consolidate peace and development gains and further build national capacity. The proposed AF also supports productivity and youth employment, identified as the third pillar of the EDPRS2. The AF supports the Bank s Reviving the Great Lakes Region: Regional Initiative for Peace, Stability and Economic Development Strategy given the importance of the project for regional security in the sub-region and its cross-border nature. IV. PROPOSED CHANGES 10. Project Development Objectives. The original PDO is to support the efforts of the GoR to: (i) Demobilize members of armed groups of Rwandan origin and the Rwandan Defense Forces; and (ii) Provide socioeconomic reintegration support to such members following demobilization, with a particular focus on female, child, and disabled ex-combatants. The original PDO remains valid for the proposed AF. 11. Project activities. Project activities under the proposed AF would remain similar as under the original project, with a few additional activities in light of lessons learnt from the original project (see Annex 3 on Lessons Learnt). The proposed additions to the original project include: (i) Provision of social orientation for dependents of AG (Component 2); (ii) Mental health screening, counseling, treatment, or referral for adult and children ex-combatants (Component 3); and (iii) Support to disabled ex-combatants through Integrated Rehabilitation and Production Workshops (Component 3). The AF will not fund any construction of the Integrated Rehabilitation and Production Workshops initiative but will support it through provision of equipment and training. 12. Addition to component 2. Reinsertion: Provision of social orientation to dependents of ex-combatants. Surveys and qualitative research conducted in Rwanda showed the importance of family support in the reintegration of ex-combatants. In addition, experience from the original project suggested that dependents of ex-combatants who repatriate from eastern DRC struggle to reintegrate because they have limited to no understanding of the current Rwandan context and suffer from mental health issues. To address this issue, dependents of excombatants will be provided with social and mental health orientation before they resettle in their community of choice. 13. Addition to component 3. (a) Mental health screening, counseling, treatment, or referral for adult and children ex-combatants. Experience from the original project along with in-depth research on mental health conducted in the region highlight the fact that nonaddressed mental health issues impede day to day functioning and social and economic reintegration. For these reasons, in addition to general psychosocial support, mental health screening, treatment, or referral needs to be provided. The context of the demobilization center and the children rehabilitation center where ex-combatants stay for extended periods of time before resettling in communities offers a unique opportunity to address these issues. 14. Addition to component 3. (b) Support to disabled ex-combatants through Integrated Rehabilitation and Production Workshops. Since they face additional obstacles and are 3

10 offered fewer opportunities than their peers, disabled ex-combatants need additional support to achieve economic reintegration. The original project has been providing extensive support to severely disabled ex-combatants, and the Government of Rwanda has funded the construction of Integrated Rehabilitation and Production Workshops. These workshops offer an innovative additional entry point to support the economic reintegration of ex-combatants and the creation of sustainable income generating opportunities. Under the AF, the project will support these workshops through the provision of equipment and tailored cooperative training and skills training to disabled ex-combatants. 15. Revised project outcome indicators. Project indicators have been revised to take into account lessons learnt and additional activities. Key changes include: (i) revised target of percentage of ex-combatants who are economically active, aligned with the average population, and clarification of economically active ; (ii) revised indicator on mental health, to measure the percentage of adult and children ex-combatants screened for mental health issues at the project entry points; (iii) clarification of two indicators for consistency of reporting: percentage of severely disabled ex-combatants who receive benefits as per current legislation was clarified to specifically refer to Mutuelles de Santé and monthly allowance, and percentage of excombatants who receive an ID card was clarified to refer to the national ID card (as opposed to the demobilized card). Annex 1 provides more details on the changes to the Results Framework. 16. Budget and financing. Total cost of the proposed AF is estimated at US$8.97 million. Table 1 presents the estimated cost for the additional activities. A contingency amount (6 percent of the additional amount) has been set apart to allow the project the flexibility needed to address unexpected and emergency situations. A detailed budget with breakdown per subcomponent and activity is available. Table 1. Estimated cost by project component in US$ Component Amount of the Additional Financing Allocated (in US$) Demobilization 2,267,600 Reinsertion 703,800 Social and Economic Reintegration 3,292,400 Mainstreaming 96,000 Program Management 2,051,946 Unallocated 558,254 Total 8,970, Revised timeframe. The closing date of the project stated in the legal documents is June 30, The proposed closing date of the proposed AF is June 30, The original Grant has been fully disbursed and is not being extended. 4

11 V. APPRAISAL SUMMARY 18. Economic and social analysis. Public sector intervention. By continuing to support the return of ex-combatants to civilian life, the AF will continue to make a contribution to the GoR s aim to reduce the risk of regional instability, and create space to address the roots of conflict and implement long-term development activities. Providing services to ex-combatants through the public sector offers an entry point into Rwandan national social protection services to which excombatants and their dependents will be entitled once they re-settle in communities of their choice. Support to demobilized ex-combatants will in turn continue to facilitate the inclusion of ex-combatants into the labor market at the community level and contribute to increased social cohesion. 19. World Bank value added. The World Bank, through its unique technical expertise on demobilization and reintegration, has been supporting the GoR s efforts in facilitating the social and economic reintegration of ex-combatants since World Bank continued support through the AF will allow the project to continue to: (i) design and implement innovative social protection initiatives that are eventually mainstreamed into national protection services (provision of medical support to vulnerable disabled ex-combatants, provision of housing to disabled ex-combatants, provision of skills training to vulnerable ex-combatants); and (ii) build the capacity of line ministries, national and local authorities for the mainstreaming of support to ex-combatants into the regular activities of such entities. 20. Institutional and implementing arrangements. The same institutional and implementing arrangements as under the original project will be used for the proposed AF. Implementation of activities is ensured by the Technical Secretariat (TS) of the Rwanda Demobilization and Reintegration Commission. The TS has qualified and seasoned personnel in place to continue implementing proposed activities in a satisfactory manner. 21. Environmental category and safeguards. The proposed AF would remain a category B project as is the original project. As with the original project, OP/BP 4.01 and OP/BP 4.12 are triggered. Little or no negative environmental or social impacts are expected as a result of implementation. The project has consistently adhered to the application of relevant social and environmental safeguards as per the Environmental and Social Management Framework (ESMF). Sub-projects have been screened for environmental and social impacts following the screening process described in Section F I. of the ESMF. Sub-projects were all found to be category C, and did not require the preparation of ESMPs, but rather implementation of environmental and social measures, as per the ESMF. As part of the processing of the AF for US$2.3 million (MDTF balance), the ESMF was revised and re-disclosed in the InfoShop and incountry on December 11, There was also no case of involuntary resettlement. The project has consistently complied with social mitigation measures as per the ESMF, through various activities aimed at fostering reconciliation and HIV/AIDS sensitization. 22. Financial management and disbursement. A financial management assessment of the RDRC concluded that the current project s financial management arrangements satisfy the World Bank s requirements as outlined in OP/BP The TS of the Rwanda Demobilization and Reintegration Commission (RDRC) maintains adequate financial management capacity with an experienced team who are familiar with Bank procedures. 5

12 23. The last audit report received was an unqualified audit. The project prepared and is implementing a detailed Action Plan addressing the issues raised by the auditors in the Management Letter section of the Report, which is monitored closely by the World Bank. There is no overdue audit. The project continues to receive additional technical support from the World Bank through an international financial advisor. 24. The existing quarterly Interim Financial Reporting (IFR) formats will be applied for the AF. The IFRs will be submitted to the World Bank no later than forty-five (45) days after the end of the period, in form and substance satisfactory to the World Bank. The existing financial arrangements as outlined in the project implementation manual will be used. Annual audits of the project s financial statements will be carried out by the Auditor General of the GoR or an international auditing firm acceptable to IDA in accordance with International Standards of Auditing. This audit would cover activities financed under the project regardless of source of financing. 25. Disbursement arrangements under the AF would remain the same as those used under the original project. The project will maintain the existing pooled Designated Account (DA) held in the National Bank of Rwanda and denominated in US dollars to receive the AF. The respective percentages of expenditures to be financed by the proposed AF as well as current sources of financing of the project will be communicated to the project through a Confirmation Letter for Proportional Financing of the respective sources of financing as under the current project. 3. The project will continue to use the transaction-based disbursement procedures. Upon effectiveness, the Designated Account (DA) will be restored to US$1.7 million. In addition to advances to the DA, other disbursement methods will be available for use under the project, such as direct payment and reimbursement. Further instructions on the withdrawal of proceeds will be outlined in the Disbursement Letter. Category (1) Basic Needs, Recognition of Service, and Disability Allowances and Training, Education, Employment, and Subproject Grants under Parts 2 (a), (b), (c), and (e) and 3 (a) and (d) (iv) of the project (2) Goods, works, non-consulting services, consultants services (including for audits), and Training under Parts 1, 2 (d), (e) and (f), 3 (a), (b), (c), (d) (i), (ii), (iii), and (iv), (e) and (f), 4, and 5 of the project Table 2. Estimated cost by disbursement category in US$ Amount of the Additional Financing Allocated (US$) Percentage of Expenditures to be Financed (inclusive of taxes) 5,468,400 Such percentage as IDA shall determine and communicate to the Recipient in a Confirmation Letter based upon actual expenditures and projected expenditures 1,330,546 Such percentage as IDA shall determine and communicate to the Recipient in a Confirmation Letter based upon actual expenditures and projected expenditures (3) Operating Costs 1,612,800 Such percentage as IDA shall determine and communicate to the Recipient in a Confirmation Letter based upon actual expenditures and projected expenditures (4) Unallocated 558,254 6

13 Category Amount of the Additional Financing Allocated (US$) TOTAL AMOUNT 8,970,000 Percentage of Expenditures to be Financed (inclusive of taxes) 26. Procurement. Procurement procedures are adhered to and implemented in a satisfactory manner. The project continues to receive additional technical support from the World Bank through an international procurement specialist. Procurement under the AF would be carried out in accordance with the following World Bank guidelines: (i) Guidelines: Procurement under International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) Loans and IDA Credits dated January 2011; (ii) Guidelines: Selection and Employment of Consultants by World Bank Borrowers dated January 2011; (iii) Guidelines on Preventing and Combating Fraud and Corruption in projects Financed by IBRD Loans and IDA Credits and Grants dated October 15, 2006 and revised in January 2011; and (iv) the provisions stipulated in the Legal Agreement. 27. A Procurement Plan including procurement or selection of consultant methods, estimated costs, review requirements, and a time frame for contract implementation has been discussed and agreed on for the AF between the Recipient and IDA. 7

14 ANNEX 1: REVISED RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND MONITORING RWANDA: Second Emergency Demobilization and Reintegration Project (SEDRP) PDO Revisions to the Results Framework Current (PAD) The objective of the project is to support the efforts of the Recipient to: (i) Demobilize members of armed groups of Rwandan origin and members of the Rwandan Defense Force; and (ii) Provide socioeconomic reintegration support to said members following demobilization, with a particular focus on the provision of such support to female, child, and disabled ex-combatants. PDO indicators Current (PAD) 1. Number of demobilized RDF members Proposed Continued Proposed change* Continued N/A N/A Comments/ Rationale for Change Disaggregated by Gender, Ill/disabled 2. Number of demobilized AG members Disaggregated by gender, children/adults, ill/disabled 3. Percentage of demand for demobilization met 4. Percentage of ex-combatants who are economically active Disaggregated by gender, children/adults, ill/disabled Continued Continued revised Disaggregated by Gender N/A N/A revised to be aligned with economic activity levels of peers in host communities. 5. Percentage of ex-combatants who report social acceptance by their communities Disaggregated by gender, children/adults, ill/disabled 6. Direct project beneficiaries (number), of which female (number) Revised to exclude reporting of children Disaggregated by Gender, Ill/disabled Continued Beneficiary surveys focus on adult ex-combatants, due to children protection concerns. N/A 8

15 Intermediate Results indicators Revisions to the Results Framework Current (PAD) Demobilization 7. Percentage of demobilized persons who are satisfied with the services and information provided in the demobilization centers Reinsertion 8. Percentage of ex-combatants who have received reinsertion benefits (BNK, RSA) in time and accordance with the implementation manual 9. Number of resettlement kits delivered to dependents of ex- AG members 10. Percentage of ex-combatants who settle down in their community of choice (with access to shelter and food security) Reintegration 11. Number of ex-combatants who receive reintegration benefits (RG) in time and in accordance with the implementation manual Proposed change* revised Continued Continued Continued Continued Comments/ Rationale for Change Revised to reflect increased quality of services and increased beneficiaries satisfaction. N/A N/A N/A N/A 12. Percentage of ex-combatants that have completed the supported income generating activity as planned 13. Percentage of ex-combatants that have successfully completed the agreed training/education plan 14. Percentage of ex-combatants who have received psychosocial assistance Deleted Revised Percentage of ex-combatants selected to receive VSW support and registered to receive training who have successfully completed training/education Revised Percentage of incoming ex-combatants who are screened for mental health issues Disaggregated by adult/children Very small numbers of excombatants receive IGA support, and they do so through the VSW scheme. These have been included in indicator 13. Combined indicator 12 and 13 and clarified the indicator for consistency of reporting. Psychosocial support has been provided mainly through training of social affairs officers and health animators at the local level. These professionals then provide psychosocial support and referrals to community members and ex-combatants (at that point they are in communities and treated as any other citizen which is a sign of their successful reintegration). 9

16 Revisions to the Results Framework Mainstreaming 15. Percentage of severely disabled ex-combatants who receive benefits as per current legislation within 9 months after demobilization Revised Percentage of categorized disabled excombatants who receive Mutuelles de Santé and Monthly Allowance as per current legislation, within 9 months after demobilization Comments/ Rationale for Change Revised indicator to reflect additional activity. This reformulation clarifies what as per current legislation entails, for consistency of reporting. Severely disabled is replaced with categorized disabled, which includes all excombatants above 30% of disability, and chronically ill excombatants. 16. Chronically ill ex-combatants mainstreamed into sociomedical services within 9 months of demobilization 17. Percentage of ex-combatants having an ID card with medical insurance within 6 months after being demobilized Deleted Revised Percentage of ex-combatants provided with national ID registration before they leave the demobilization center Already addressed in revised indicator 15 (Mutuelles de Santé). Clarification of which ID the indicator refers to, for clarity of reporting and to avoid confusion between national ID (an indicator of mainstreaming as it opens the door to national social protection benefits) and demobilization ID which all excombatants automatically receive. 10

17 REVISED PROJECT RESULTS FRAMEWORK Project Development Objective (PDO): The objective of the project is to support the efforts of the Recipient to: (i) Demobilize members of armed groups of Rwandan origin and members of the Rwandan Defense Force; and (ii) Provide socioeconomic reintegration support to said members following demobilization, with a particular focus on the provision of such support to female, child, and disabled ex-combatants. PDO Level Results Indicators 1 1. Number of demobilized RDF members Disaggregated by Gender, Ill/disabled 2. Number of demobilized AG members Disaggregated by Gender, children/adults, Ill/disabled 3. Percentage of demand for demobilization met Core UOM 2 Numb er of individuals Numb er of individuals Percen tage of individuals Baseline Original Project Start (2009) Progress To Date (2013) Cumulat ive Value (2016) 22,675 26, ,091 11, % demand met 100% 100% 100% 100% Frequency RDRC monthly and quarterly reports RDRC monthly and quarterly reports RDRC monthly and quarterly reports Data Source/ Methodolog y Responsibilit y for Data Collection Operations, M&E and s Operations, M&E Operations, M&E Comments No cumulative target value. Project does not seek out ex-combatants but rather aims at addressing the demand for demobilization (see indicator 3). Baseline refers to number of RDF XCs demobilized during previous project. No cumulative target value. Project does not seek out ex-combatants but rather aims at addressing the demand for demobilization (see indicator 3). Baseline refers to number of AG XCs demobilized during previous project. - 1 Please indicate whether the indicator is a Core Sector Indicator (for additional guidance please see 2 UOM = Unit of Measurement. 3 As of November 30,

18 PDO Level Results Indicators Core UOM Baseline Original Project Start (2009) Progress To Date (2013) Cumulat ive Values (2016) Frequency Data Source/ Methodolog y Responsibilit y for Data Collection Comments 4. Percentage of excombatants who are economically active Disaggregated by Gender, children/adults, Ill/disabled Percen tage of benefi ciaries 73% 62% 70% 70% 70% Annual Tracer Study and community dynamics survey M&E The baseline of 73% corresponds to the percentage of ex-combatants that do not report being unemployed. The baseline is based on data collected in 2008 and presented in the final report of the previous project. Economically active will be measured through Tracer and community dynamics surveys, where respondents are asked to identify one occupation among 14 categories. Economically active corresponds to categories 2 to = Unemployed 2 = Studying 3 = Housewife / working in the home 4 = Retired (but not economically active) 5 = Employed working for employer (agriculture) 6 = Employed working for employer (private sector) 7 = Employed working for employer (public sector) 8 = Self-employed (agriculture) 9 = Self-employed (service) 10 = Self-employed (retail) 11 = Self-employed (manufacture) 12 = Hustle / involved in or reliant on the informal economic (i.e. economically active in informal sector) 13 = Supplementing income through subsistence activities 14 = Other The purpose of the project is to reintegrate excombatants to the level of their peers in communities. The target value reflects the percentage of community members who are economically active, as per data collected in 2012, and as per the above mentioned definition. 5. Percentage of excombatants who report social acceptance by their communities Disaggregated by Gender, Ill/disabled Percen tage of benefi ciaries 72% 78 80% 80% 80% RDRC quarterly progress and annual reports Tracer Studies and community dynamics survey M&E Same target as in original project. 12

19 PDO Level Results Indicators Beneficiaries 4 6. Direct Project beneficiaries Core UOM Numb er Baseline Original Project Start (2009) Progress To Date (2013) Cumulat ive Values (2016) - 15, Frequency RDRC monthly and quarterly reports Data Source/ Methodolog y Responsibilit y for Data Collection Operations, M&E Core indicator Comments No cumulative target value. Project does not seek out ex-combatants but rather aims at addressing the demand for demobilization (see indicator 3). Of which female (beneficiaries) Numb er RDRC monthly and quarterly reports Operations, M&E Core indicator No cumulative target value. Project does not seek out ex-combatants but rather aims at addressing the demand for demobilization (see indicator 3). 4 All projects are encouraged to identify and measure the number of project beneficiaries. The adoption and reporting on this indicator is required for investment projects which have an approval date of July 1, 2009 or later (for additional guidance please see 13

20 Intermediate Results and Indicators Intermediate Results Indicators Core Unit of Meas ureme nt Baseline Original Project Start (2009) Progress To Date (2013) Cumulat ive Value (2016) Frequency Data Source/ Methodolog y Responsibilit y for Data Collection Comments Intermediate Result 1: Demobilization 7. Percentage of demobilized persons who are satisfied with the services and information provided in the demobilization centers Numb er of individuals 80% 96% 80% 80% 80% RDRC quarterly progress and annual reports Satisfaction surveys at Mutobo demobilizatio n center, Community dynamics survey M & E Same target as in the original project. The profile of incoming ex-combatants is changing, with an expected increasing number of ex-combatants not demobilizing voluntarily, which will affect satisfaction rates. Intermediate Result 2: Reinsertion 8. Percentage of excombatants who have received reinsertion benefits (BNK, RSA) Percen tage of individuals 90% 95% 95% 95% 95% RDRC quarterly progress and annual reports M & E - 9. Number of resettlement kits delivered to dependents of ex- AG members. Numb er of individuals 3,511 10, RDRC quarterly progress and annual reports Operations and M & E No target value. Project does not seek out excombatants or their dependents but rather aims at addressing the demand for demobilization (see indicator 3). 10. Percentage of excombatants who settle down in their community of choice (with access to food Percen tage of individ uals 95% 100% 95% 95% 95% RDRC annual reports Tracer studies and community dynamics survey M & E Same target as under the original project. 14

21 Intermediate Results and Indicators Intermediate Results Indicators Core Unit of Meas ureme nt Baseline Original Project Start (2009) Progress To Date (2013) Cumulat ive Value (2016) Frequency Data Source/ Methodolog y Responsibilit y for Data Collection Comments and shelter) Intermediate Result 3: Reintegration 11. Number of excombatants who receive Reintegration Grant in time and accordance with the PIM Numb er of benefi ciaries 29,766 37, RDRC monthly statistical reports, quarterly and annual reports Operations and M & E No target value. Project does not seek out excombatants but rather aims at addressing the demand for demobilization (see indicator 3). 12. Percentage of excombatants selected to receive VSW support and registered to receive training who have successfully completed training/education/i GA 13. Percentage of incoming excombatants who are screened for mental health issues Disaggregated by adult/children Percen tage of benefi ciaries Percen tage of individuals 67% 90% 90% 90% 90% % 75% 75% RDRC annual reports Monthly reports Operations and M & E MRU, M & E Original target was 80%. revised to reflect improvement in provision of benefits. Baseline and target based on rates for cycle of training completed in November New indicator no baseline available. Intermediate results 4. Mainstreaming 15

22 Intermediate Results and Indicators Intermediate Results Indicators Core Unit of Meas ureme nt Baseline Original Project Start (2009) Progress To Date (2013) Cumulat ive Value (2016) Frequency Data Source/ Methodolog y Responsibilit y for Data Collection Comments 14. Percentage of categorized disabled ex-combatants who receive Mutuelles de Santé and Monthly Allowance as per current legislation, within 9 months after demobilization 15. Percentage of excombatants provided with national ID registration before they leave the demobilization center Percen t of individ uals Percen tage of individ uals - 96% 95% 95% 95% % 90% 90% Monthly reports Monthly reports MRU, M & E MRU, M & E - No baseline available this is a new benefit the project is providing (ID cards used to be provided several months after ex-combatants left the demobilization center). 16

23 ANNEX 2. OPERATIONAL RISK ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK (ORAF) Rwanda Second Emergency Demobilization and Reintegration Project Additional Financing (P148706) Stage: Board Project Stakeholder Risks Rating Moderate Description: Limited number of incoming beneficiaries. Armed Group (AG) members may be unwilling or unable to return to Rwanda from eastern DRC to participate in the project. The original project responded fully to the demand for demobilization and reintegration support for AG. However, the return of AG from eastern DRC to Rwanda is outside of the control of the Recipient, and it is known that AG leaders have actively resisted the disarmament and repatriation of their personnel. Furthermore, eastern DRC may not be sufficiently stable, or the situation could even deteriorate, making repatriation of AG more challenging. Reputational risk. There is a potential reputational risk to the Bank in supporting an operation that is closely tied to both political processes and security issues. Nonetheless, this issue has been considered again by the highest levels of Bank management at the occasion of recent accusations in a report from the United Nations Group of Experts. While the risk is clearly higher than with normal operations, the potential benefits warrant Bank involvement, including contributions to gains in regional peace and stability, and supporting sustainable development at the national level. Implementing Agency Risks (including fiduciary) Risk Management: Given the external nature of some of these risk factors, mitigation measures that the Project itself can take have certain limitations. The project has however been implementing measures to mitigate this risk, including: (i) communications and outreach activities targeting Rwandese combatants in eastern DRC, (ii) close coordination with peace and stability actors in eastern DRC, such as MONUSCO, and (iii) provision of effective support to those who repatriate as a means to build confidence among those still actively fighting. Resp: Client Stage: Preparation/Implementation Due Date: Ongoing Status: Ongoing Risk Management: The project has put in place effective checks and balances for tracking, monitoring and following-up on ex-combatants who have been demobilized through the GoR program. In addition, the project collaborates closely with partners and stakeholders to follow-up on issues or concerns related to the program, including the International Committee of the Red Cross, bilateral donors, and UN agencies including MONUSCO. The project will continue to use these effective monitoring systems. Stage: Resp: Client./Bank Due Date: Ongoing Status: Ongoing Preparation/Implementation Capacity Rating: Low Description: Continued accounting software-related problems related to the introduction of a pilot new F system might continue to impact negatively on the financial reporting capabilities of the project. Risk Management: The Bank will continue to provide technical assistance to the project to support FM staff in managing issues related to the introduction of the new software. 17

24 Resp: Client Stage: Preparation/ implementation Due Date: Ongoing Status: Ongoing Governance Rating: Low Description: Responsibility for Demobilization and Reintegration falls under the Rwanda Demobilization and Reintegration Commission. The management of the current project has shown strong ownership by the Rwandan Government, and the current Ministry of Finance strongly supports the proposed additional financing. However, there is always a risk that Government ownership decreases overtime. Risk Management: IDA will monitor closely a continuation of strong government ownership for the proposed additional financing. Resp: Bank Project Risks Project design Rating: Low Stage: Preparation/Implementation Due Date: Ongoing Status: Ongoing Description: Project design for the AF remains the same as in the original project, where activities have been implemented successfully. If the context Risk Management: The project will continue to closely collaborate with MONUSCO in eastern DRC and to closely monitor evolutions in the context to adapt the project design as necessary. in eastern DRC changes dramatically there may be a need to adapt project design at some point during implementation. Resp: Client Stage: Preparation/Implementation Due Date: Ongoing Status: Ongoing Social and Environmental Rating: Low Description: The project under the proposed AF remains under the same environmental category (Category B) as the original project, as activities remain the same and are not expected to have significant or irreversible impacts, and have limited to no localized adverse impacts, and no cumulative impact. Risk Management: The project will continue to use effectively the existing ESMF and work closely with the Rwanda Environmental Management Authority (REMA). Resp: Client Stage: Implementation Due Date: Ongoing Status: Ongoing Delivery Monitoring and sustainability Rating: Low Description: The original project has provided adequate Monitoring and Evaluation of activities. The and internal procedures to feed information into the have been recently strengthened, and it will be important to ensure that the project continues to implement agreed upon procedures for effective data collection. Implementation Risk Rating: Moderate Resp: Bank Stage: Implementation Due Date: Ongoing Status: Ongoing 18

25 ANNEX 3. LESSONS LEARNT The original project has been successfully supporting the demobilization and reintegration of excombatants, and has allowed for an ongoing learning process. Main lessons learnt from the original project suggest that: Family is a key factor to the successful reintegration of ex-combatants. Surveys and qualitative research conducted in Rwanda showed the importance of family support in the reintegration of ex-combatants. In addition, experience from the original project suggested that dependents of ex-combatants who repatriate from eastern DRC tend to struggle to reintegrate, which can impede ex-combatants reintegration. Experience from the original project, along with in-depth research on mental health conducted in the region highlight the fact that non-addressed mental health issues impede day to day functioning and social and economic reintegration. For these reasons, in addition to general psychosocial support, systematic mental health screening and treatment needs to be provided. The context of the demobilization center and the children rehabilitation center where ex-combatants stay for extended periods of time before reintegration communities offer a unique opportunity to address these issues. Economic opportunities for disabled ex-combatants are more limited, and they need additional support to achieve economic reintegration. The original project has been providing extensive housing and economic support to severely disabled ex-combatants, and the Government of Rwanda has funded the construction of Integrated Rehabilitation and Production Workshops. These workshops offer an innovative additional entry point to support the economic reintegration of ex-combatants and the creation of sustainable income generating opportunities. Outreach and cross border communication are crucial to inform combatants fighting in eastern DRC about the support provided by the project, and to encourage them to disarm and demobilize. Informal feedback from ex-combatants repatriated to Rwanda showed that radio messages and testimonies from demobilized ex-combatants played an important role in their decision to disarm and demobilize. The provision of training and entrepreneurship skills strongly contribute to the economic reintegration of ex-combatants, in particular in the Rwandan context where the growing economy provides opportunities for the creation of income generating activities. Support to ex-combatants in the design of their sub-project during the PDOP has received positive feedback from beneficiaries, with requests for a stronger emphasis on entrepreneurship. 19