Outsourcing, Productivity and Input Composition at the Plant Level

Transcription

1 Outsourcing, Productivity and Input Composition at the Plant Level by Catherine J. Morrison Paul and Mahmut Yasar Paper presented at the International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium Annual Meeting Theme Day December 3-5, 2006 St. Petersburg, Florida

2 Outsourcing, Productivity, and Input Composition at the Plant Level Catherine J. Morrison Paul, University of California, Davis and the Giannini Foundation Phone, : Fax, : , Mahmut Yasar, Emory University 1 Phone, : Fax, : , myasar@emory.edu Abstract Outsourcing or subcontracting is increasingly used by firms as a production alternative, which may enhance productive performance as well as affect input mix. In this paper we explore the relationships between outsourcing and productivity, input composition, and trade for Turkish textile and apparel manufacturing plants, by empirically implementing a flexible production function model that recognizes domestic and foreign outsourcing and controls for simultaneity and selection bias. Our results suggest that domestic outsourcing through subcontracting inputs and foreign outsourcing through importing materials help plants increase their productivity, but that subcontracting output (contract receiving) is associated with lower productivity. In turn, input subcontracting is related to higher, and output subcontracting to lower, skilled relative to unskilled labor. Keywords: outsourcing, plant productivity, input composition, trade and labor biases JEL Classifications: D24, F14, L60 Catherine J. Morrison Paul is a Professor in the Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of California, Davis, and member of the Giannini Foundation, and Mahmut Yasar is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Economics, Emory University. 1 We would like to thank Omer Gebizlioglu, Ilhami Mintemur and Emine Kocberber at the State Institute of Statistics in Turkey for allowing us access to the data for this study, and Erol Taymaz for helpful discussions about the data.

3 quite apart from the question of diminishing returns the costs of organizing certain transactions within the firm may be greater than the costs of carrying out the exchange transactions in the open market. Coase (1937), pp Introduction Firms productivity depends on their potential to minimize production costs by substituting among a variety of inputs. Input choices include purchasing rather than producing goods and services, which implies outsourcing or subcontracting. Although there is increasing diversification among firms input choices, and wide recognition especially outside academia of the consequences of outsourcing, most production studies consider a very limited input specification that ignores such changes in input form. Many empirical production studies focus on value added capital and labor inputs without recognizing the potential to substitute processed materials inputs for processing (capital and labor) inputs. Even when such substitution is recognized, substitution within input categories such as skilled versus unskilled labor or domestic versus foreign materials is typically not allowed for. Although firms substitution responses increasingly involve both foreign and domestic outsourcing, the limited input representations common in the production literature preclude consideration of such trends and thus limit the interpretability of resulting estimates. Firms would be expected to allocate their own inputs to activities for which they have a comparative advantage over competitors and outsource the remaining activities to external suppliers (Roodhooft and Warlop, 1999), and the relative advantages of these choices will be affected by technological, market, and trade conditions. For example, import competition from low wage countries may result in foreign outsourcing, and thus 1

4 reduce the demand for and wages of less skilled laborers (Feenstra and Hanson, 1996, 1999, 2003, Hanson et al. 2005). Firms may also move to cut costs by outsourcing specialized tasks or lower productivity/skill processes to other domestic firms. Such behavior would be expected to affect the productivity and competitiveness of outsourcing firms, as well as the relative productivity of subcontract offering and receiving firms, sectors or countries. 2 It thus also will affect social welfare and the interpretation of standard productivity measures, with policy consequences. For example, reduced employment from outsourcing will result in higher measured labor productivity, which if interpreted as welfare enhancing may be misleading. If such changes involve shifting jobs to foreign countries, or foreign outsourcing, it may weaken the domestic labor market, which was a key issue in the last U.S. presidential election. Domestic employment shifts toward lower paying service activities and reduced job security may also result from domestic outsourcing or subcontracting. In this paper we explore how outsourcing or subcontracting is related to plant productivity and input composition, through substitution between own and outsourced inputs. We consider the impacts of both domestic outsourcing, through the share of inputs that are subcontracted out, and foreign outsourcing, through the share of imported intermediate inputs. We also consider the productivity and input mix implications of receiving contracts, through the share of output that is subcontracted. The productivity effects of outsourcing are represented as production frontier shifts associated with varying shares of subcontracted inputs/outputs or imported intermediate inputs. Input composition impacts are captured by interactions or cross-effects capturing 2 We follow Taymaz and Kilicaslan (2005) by using the terms subcontract offering and receiving to distinguish input and output subcontracting. 2

5 differences in inputs relative output elasticities, or the production frontier slope, for outsourcing plants. Such interactions can conversely be interpreted as differential outsourcing impacts for plants with, say, a higher skilled labor share. Similarly, interactions among outsourcing and trade variables such as exporting and foreign ownership show whether outsourcing benefits differ for plants with other foreign linkages. Such a range of outsourcing, trade, and input composition patterns cannot be evaluated using the models typically relied on in the literature. To measure these production patterns we thus use a flexible translog production function model allowing for a full range of substitution among capital, labor, and material input components, and crosseffects with outsourcing and trade variables. We use data for Turkish manufacturing plants in the apparel and textiles industries that allow us to distinguish technical/administrative and production labor, energy and intermediate materials, and the shares of subcontracted inputs (subcontract offering), subcontracted outputs (subcontract receiving), imported materials, exported output, and foreign ownership. We estimate the function by a semiparametric method that accommodates possible simultaneity and selection biases. Overall, we find that greater shares of subcontracted inputs or imported materials imply higher plant productivity. The productive contribution of input subcontracting is significantly skilled-labor-using, although the effect of imported materials does not substantively affect input composition. Output subcontracting (subcontract receiving) is by contrast associated with lower productivity as well as lower shares of skilled labor and purchased intermediate materials. Output subcontracting plants that also have a foreign share or are importers, however, exhibit higher productivity than those without such foreign linkages. 3

6 The Literature Although outsourcing or subcontracting has not been a focus of the literature on production and productivity, some studies have examined firms decisions about whether to produce in-house or outsource (Williamson, 1971, Grossman and Hart, 1986, Abraham and Taylor, 1996, Holmes, 1986, Grossman and Helpman, 2002, Antras, 2003). This literature stresses that cost minimization may involve outsourcing if the cost of producing inputs or services in-house are higher than (or at least as high as) subcontracting them. Two types of costs affect firms choices between internal production and outsourcing: production costs and transaction costs. Production costs may be minimized through subcontracting if outside suppliers benefit from lower labor costs, scale economies, clustering of special skills or expertise, or production smoothing (Abraham and Taylor, 1996 and Roodhooft and Warlop, 1999). For example, firms with higher wages may lower their costs by subcontracting some production activities to lower wage producers, which may also imply that subcontract receiving firms are lower productivity ( technologicially backward ) smaller firms (Berger and Piore, 1980, Imrie, 1986). Further, smoothing the workload of a firm s regular workforce by subcontracting during demand peaks might reduce risk or product market uncertainty, or lags in responding due to capacity constraints, from seasonal variations (Holmes, 1986). Transactions costs also affect firms decisions about whether to produce in-house or subcontract (Coase, 1937, Williamson, 1971, Holmes, 1986, Bolton and Whinston, 1993, Abraham and Taylor, 1996, Roodhooft and Warlop, 1999). 3 Transaction costs may 3 Grossman and Helpman (2002) note that earlier theoretical models provide limited explanations for cross sectional (or cross-regional) differences in outsourcing of firms and of recent trends, because they treat industry environment as given and ignore interdependencies among the options among firms. Further, 4

7 be associated with negotiating, monitoring, and enforcing contracts (Grossman and Hart, 1986) or searching for appropriate outside suppliers (Grossman and Helpman, 2002). Firms thus benefit from outsourcing only when the costs of investments required to support the subcontracting relationship are low relative to the cost advantages of subcontracting (Chalos, 1995, Roodhooft and Warlop, 1999). 4 This may in turn suggest that larger more productive firms are the most likely to pursue input subcontracting relationships. Productive benefits may also arise from technology transfer (Feenstra 1998, Head and Ries 2002). That is, importing materials from countries with higher levels of accumulated technical knowledge may transfer this technology through R&D embodied in the inputs and learning associated with their use. Linkages between multinational and domestic firms may also cause productivity spillovers by providing inputs at lower cost to domestic buyers (input subcontracting), or increasing demand for inputs produced by domestic suppliers (output subcontracting) (Feenstra and Hanson, 2003, Grossman and Helpman, 2003, Hanson et al. 2005). This suggests that internationally connected firms may benefit differentially from outsourcing. Some studies have empirically examined the impacts of firms outsourcing on their economic performance. 5 For example, Abraham and Taylor (1996) find evidence of wage cost savings, scale economies, and smoother production schedules from the use of contracting by U.S. establishments. Fixler and Siegel (1999) attribute the strong growth of U.S. service relative to manufacturing industries, and concurrent reductions in service Antras (2003) and Grossman and Helpman (2002) suggest a framework based on incomplete contract theory and search costs to examine the international outsourcing. 4 Roodhooft and Warlop (1999) and Lyons (1995) empirically examine the effect of transaction costs on firms outsourcing decisions. 5 Most of these studies examine the relationship between productivity and outsourcing, especially in service industries (see Heshmati, 2003, for a survey). 5

8 sector productivity, at least in part to outsourcing. Ten Raa and Wolff (2001) similarly find a positive impact on total factor productivity growth from outsourcing sluggish services in U.S. manufacturing industries. Such studies suggest that firms outsource less productive lower skill processes to other domestic producers. Further, Girma and Görg (2004) find for the U.K. that outsourcing intensity in chemical and engineering (but not electronic) manufacturing is positively associated with productivity growth, and that this effect is stronger for foreign-owned establishments. Görg, Hanley and Strobl (2004) show that outsourcing confers productivity gains for exporting and foreign-owned Irish manufacturing plants. Feenstra and Hanson (1996, 1999) conclude that foreign outsourcing in the U.S. has increasingly involved transfers of low-skill-intensive production to low-skill abundant countries. These studies thus suggest links of productivity effects of outsourcing with both trade factors and input composition. The Model Evaluating this range of potential productive outsourcing effects requires a production model that recognizes the scope of relationships among own and outsourced production and trade factors. We thus base our analysis on a flexible production function that recognizes these dimensions of production possibilities and productive contributions. In a production model the simplest notion of outsourcing is the substitution or trade-off of intermediate (processed) materials for value-added (processing) inputs. Such substitution implies outsourcing because it increases the share of intermediate materials (M) relative to labor (L) and capital (K). For example, if purchased materials or services substitute for processing by unskilled labor, increasing intermediate materials use will have a depressing effect on the marginal product (and thus demand and wage) of unskilled 6

9 labor. Observing such substitution implies not only input composition changes but also a productive benefit from such behavior. Explicitly recognizing input and output subcontracting as production determinants permits a more direct representation of the productive and input composition impacts of outsourcing. Input subcontracting, or subcontract offering, implies domestic outsourcing of activities that otherwise would be carried out in house using the firm s own inputs. Output subcontracting, or subcontract receiving, entails production for other companies by contract. Importing intermediate materials involves foreign outsourcing. The productivity variations associated with these forms of outsourcing can be characterized as shifts and twists in the production frontier. The production function embodying the production contributions of both internal and external productive factors related to outsourcing has the general form: Y = F(K,L,M,D,R,t) (1) = F(K,L T,L N,E,M,D I,D R,EXP,FDI,SUB I,SUB O,IMP M,LIC,t), or y = f(k,l,m,d,r,t), where Y is output, K is capital, and L and M are vectors of labor and materials components (with y, k, l, m representing their natural logarithms); D is a vector of dummy variables; R is a vector of plant-level shift factors; and t is a time trend. This function represents the technological relationship between output and productive determinants rather than the choice of production factors how much output is produced by plants with specific input levels and other characteristics. 7

10 For our application the L and M vectors each have two components. The L variables are the employment levels for L T =technical, administrative and engineering labor, and L N =nontechnical labor, which broadly capture a split between skilled and unskilled workers. The M variables are E=energy and M=intermediate materials. The D vector includes industry (I) and region (R) dummy variables. The R vector includes the trade variables EXP=export share, FDI=foreign ownership share and LIC=licensing, as well as the outsourcing variables SUB I =share of subcontracted inputs, SUB O =share of subcontracted outputs, and IMP M =share of imported materials. Outsourcing impacts on productivity and input composition, including labor composition (technical/administrative versus non-technical labor) and trade patterns (exports, FDI), can be measured through first and second-order elasticities of this function. For example, insights about the relative productive contributions of material (processed) versus value added (processing) inputs are gained through the first-order output elasticities ε Y,Xj = ln Y/ ln X j = y/ x j for i=k, L, M (k, l, m). Further, complementarity or substitutability between, e.g., intermediate materials and unskilled labor, is reflected by second-order elasticities such as ε M,LN = 2 y/ m l N (or equivalently ε LN,M = 2 y/ l N m, by Young s theorem/symmetry). These elasticities allow us to evaluate whether additional materials use implies lower or higher demand for other inputs, and thus whether they are being outsourced by increased M in this example whether more intermediate materials are used rather than unskilled labor for materials processing. More specific domestic and foreign outsourcing effects are represented by output elasticities with respect to the input and output subcontracting and imported materials variables. For example, the productive effect of input subcontracting is computed as the 8

11 first-order elasticity ε Y,SUBI = ln Y/ SUB I = y/ SUB I reflecting a shift in the production frontier or productive effect associated with a higher SUB I share. If ε Y,SUBI >0 plants with more SUB I produce more output for a given input vector, industry, year, and region. Second-order relationships provide further insights about these impacts. For example, the cross elasticity ε SUBI,EXP = 2 y/ SUB I EXP shows whether the productive impact of outsourcing is greater or less for exporting firms. By Young s theorem this elasticity is equivalent to ε EXP,SUBI = 2 y/ EXP SUB I, which can be interpreted as the effect of input subcontracting on the productive contribution of exporting. 6 The linkages between outsourcing and input composition are also captured by (symmetric) second-order elasticities. For example, since the output elasticity ε Y,LT = ln Y/ ln L T = y/ l T represents the productive contribution of skilled labor, the secondorder elasticity ε LT,SUBI = 2 y/ l T SUB I reflects whether plants with more input subcontracting have higher (ε LT,SUBI >0, complements) or lower (ε LT,SUBI <0, substitutes) skilled labor shares, all else equal. If input subcontracting is, say, complementary with skilled labor, it enhances the employment and wages of skilled workers. Conversely, a positive value of ε SUBI,LT = 2 y/ SUB I l T indicates that plants with greater skilled labor intensity benefit more from outsourcing through input subcontracts. Such a relationship for foreign outsourcing, or imported materials ε LT,IMPM = 2 y/ l T IMP M = 2 y/ IMP M l T >0 may similarly be interpreted as a trade-bias toward skilled labor (relative to unskilled labor if the impact is smaller or reversed for l N ), as found by Feenstra and Hanson (1996, 1999). 6 That is, firms may learn by exporting (Bernard and Jensen, 1995). The idea from this literature is that through exporting firms learn about and adopt international best practice production methods, receive feedback from international clients and competitors that may improve product offerings, and benefit from other knowledge spillovers or externalities. 9

12 Computing the outsourcing impacts on inputs productive contributions, e.g., ε Xj,SUBI = 2 y/ x j SUB I for all x j, allows evaluation of not only the absolute (sign) and relative (size) impacts on each input (and thus input composition), but also the effect of outsourcing on scale economies (the combination of the input contributions). That is, since returns to scale can be measured as RTS=Σ j ε Y,Xj = Σ j ln Y/ ln X j = Σ j y/ x j, the impact on RTS of a change in input subcontracting becomes ε RTS,SUBI = RTS/ SUB I = Σ j ε Xj,SUBI = Σ j 2 y/ x j SUB I. In sum, a range of productive and input composition variations associated with different forms of outsourcing may be evaluated via first and second-order elasticities of the production function with respect to the outsourcing variables SUB I, SUB O, and IMP M, as well as intermediate materials, M. Our empirical application focuses on the overall productivity effects of these variables and their relative labor and trade cross-effects. Empirical Implementation The Data We use an unbalanced panel dataset for Turkish manufacturing plants in the apparel and textile industries for our empirical analysis. The data are from Annual Surveys of Manufacturing Industries by the State Institute of Statistics in Turkey, categorized by International Standard Industrial Classification (ISIC). The textile (ISIC 32) industry has the highest subcontracted output and input shares of all industries in Turkey (Taymaz and Kilicaslan, 2005). The apparel and textile industries we use for our estimation, textile products excluding wearing apparel (ISIC 3212) and wearing apparel, excluding fur and leather (ISIC 3222) are the primary sub-sectors of this industry. After removing 10

13 observations with clearly erroneous values, or that did not distinguish between technical and non-technical labor, 5235 observations for 1193 plants remained in the sample. Our data include revenues from output production and expenditures on labor, capital, intermediate material, and energy inputs, with changes in output and materials inventory stocks taken into account. 7 The quantity of labor is measured as total production hours, and its price implicitly computed as expenditures divided by this quantity (separately for technical and administrative workers and production workers). The nominal values of output and materials inputs are divided by their corresponding price deflators, also included in the data, to derive real or constant dollar quantities in 1987 prices. The stock of capital is computed by cumulating gross investment data using the perpetual inventory method, deflated by a capital price index and adjusted for depreciation. Foreign outsourcing is measured as the share of imported materials in total materials use. Additional data on trade status includes the share of exports in total sales and the share of foreign firm ownership. The plants are also distinguished by industry (apparel, textile) and region (East Anatolia, South-East Anatolia, Central Anatolia, Black sea, Agean, Marmara, and Mediterranean). 8 Our domestic outsourcing variables, subcontracted input (the share of a plant s inputs subcontracted to supplier plants, in total inputs), and subcontracted output (the share of output subcontracted by other plants, in total output), are based on the definition of income from subcontract in the survey as income generated from the processing of materials provided by the firm offering the subcontract. 7 Further details about the construction of these data are contained in Yasar and Paul (2004a). 8 Due to limited observations for the East Anatolian region we combined it with the Southeast Anatolian region and used only six region dummies. 11

14 Summary statistics showing relative outsourcing shares by region, size, ownership and trade status are presented in Table 1. Note first that a significant amount of both inputs and outputs are subcontracted in these industries about 13.5 and 17.5 percent respectively although only 1.5 percent of inputs are imported. The shares vary by size, with small plants subcontracting on average twice as high a share of output as large plants. In reverse, larger plants subcontract about 25 percent more and import more than three times as much inputs in term of shares. The patterns for exporting versus non-exporting plants are very similar to those for the large versus small plants, although non-exporters produce an even greater share of their output by contract by nearly a factor of four. The shares of all outsourcing channels are larger also for foreign owned plants, with input and output outsourcing shares nearly 50 percent and the import share three times as large. The shares also vary by location (although our empirical investigation did not reveal significant productivity differences by region). Further information about data patterns are evident from the results of regressions of some indicators of plant structure on time, size (employment), and regional dummy variables, presented in Table 2. 9 These measures show the average percentage difference in the dependent variable between plants in each outsourcing category and plants that do not engage in outsourcing activity, conditional these factors. The dependent variables are labor productivity (LProd), the levels of wages and employment (WAGE, EMP), the amount of administrative or technical employees (L ADM, L TECH ), and the ratios of capital equipment and investment to employment (K/EMP, INV/EMP). 9 The regressions in which the dependent variable is employment or is on a per employee basis do not include the size variable. 12

15 First note that about 23.8 percent of the plants in our data did not import materials or subcontract inputs or outputs. The largest percentage of plants were only input subcontractors, at 27.2 percent, and about 15 percent were only output subcontractors. However, 23 percent of the plants subcontracted both inputs and outputs. Only 2.1 percent of plants imported materials without carrying out other forms of outsourcing, but about 4 and 5 percent imported as well as subcontracted inputs or outputs, respectively. The parameter estimates reported in Table 2 show very different patterns across type of plant, consistent with the view that input subcontracting (subcontract offering) and importing plants are larger, more productive, and higher skilled labor- and capital-intensive than the control plants, and particularly compared to output subcontracting (subcontract receiving) plants. For example, labor productivity is 64 percent higher for plants that subcontract inputs and more than twice as large for plants that also import. By contrast, plants that subcontract output have 85 percent lower labor productivity. This is consistent with higher wages, size (EMP), and technical/administrative labor- and capital-intensity for these plants. 10 Further evaluation of outsourcing productivity patterns, however, that recognize interactions among the many plant level characteristics we can represent with our data, require estimating a more structural model of production processes. The Empirical Model For estimation of our model we approximate the production function by a translog form. The resulting function represents all input variables and measures in proportional terms (due to the logarithmic form), and includes interactions or cross-effects among all its arguments (because it is a second order approximation). We estimate the function using a 10 It is also consistent with the asymmetry found by Taymaz and Kilicaslan (2005) that they interpret as an indication that an unequal relationship exists between clients and subcontractors. That is, plants that offer subcontracts are more productive/skill plants and the reverse is true for plants that receive subcontracts. 13

16 semi-parametric empirical model based on Olley and Pakes (1996) 11 that controls for problems associated with simultaneity, selection and unobserved plant heterogeneity. 12 This approach is based on the assumption that a plant chooses its variable inputs conditional on beginning of the period state variables (a productivity indicator,, Ω it and the existing capital stock, K ) 13, that expected productivity and profits are functions of it these state variables, and that Ω it follows a first-order Markov process. 14 Plants decide whether to remain in or exit the market by comparing their expected productivity to some threshold, subject to their state variables. Their capital investment decisions also depend on the state variables. A plant that experiences a positive productivity shock in period t-1 is thus likely to stay in the market and to invest more in period t. The translog production function relating output production to inputs, the state variables, and other functional arguments, and with an error structure consistent with the Olley-Pakes assumptions, can be written as: 11 The use of this model to control for these problems with respect to trade variables is supported by comparisons of Olley-Pakes estimates to those from correlation analysis, OLS, quantile regression, and matching models in Yasar and Paul (2004b, 2005). 12 We have also tried instrumental variables approaches to control for endogeneity of trade and outsourcing variables (Baltagi, 2001, Holtz-Eakin, Newey and Rosen, 1988, Arellano and Bond, 1991, Arellano and Bover, 1995, Blundell and Bond, 1998, 2000, Baum et al., 2003). However, these approaches did not generate usable results for our data and model. GMM models using lagged values of the trade and outsourcing variables as instruments generated similar results to the Olley-Pakes model somewhat higher productive contributions of the instrumented variables than for OLS. However, the Sargan test for overidentifying restrictions suggested that these are poor instruments. The Olley-Pakes results are thus quite robust they imply slight OLS biases in the direction one would expect and control for selection bias in addition to unobserved heterogeneity and simultaneity, so it is our preferred econometric specification. 13 We have also treated the outsourcing and trade variables as state variables in a model without interacting them with the inputs and each other. 14 Alternatively, estimation could be carried out using the Levinsohn and Petrin (2003) approach, which uses intermediate inputs instead of investment to control for correlation between inputs and the unobserved productivity shock, and thus limits the problems associated with lumpy investment. Our capital input, however, is computed from investment series, thus investment data is not a problem for our data. 14

17 k y = β + β x + β k + β t+ β x t+ β k t+ β x k + β R it 0 j j jit K it t j jt jit kt it j jk jit it m m mit 1 + β + β + β + β + +Ω + η it 2 mk Rmit 1 it mj mit 1 jit g git 0.5[ jp jit pit KK it ] j k R m j x D x x β g j p it (2) where i denotes plant, t time period, and j input (j=l T,L N,E,M); y, x j and k are the natural logarithms of Y, X j and K, EXP, FDI, and LIC); R m are the outsourcing and trade variables (SUB I, SUB O, IMP M, D g are region and industry dummies; productivity shock; and η it is a random measurement error. Ω it is the unobserved Because Ω it is unobservable, so the inputs are correlated with the productivity shock, OLS estimates of equation (2) are inconsistent and subject to simultaneity bias. Further, selection bias arises because a plant with higher levels of state variables will expect higher profits and have less incentive to exit. The Olley and Pakes estimation method accommodates these problems in two steps. First, assuming that future productivity is increasing with respect to Ω it, so Ω = I 1 ( I, K ) = g ( I, K ) with g t / I it >0, (2) becomes: it it it it t it it y = β + β x + βt+ β x t+ β k t+ β x k + β R + β it 0 j j jit t j jt jit kt it j jk jit it m m mit 1 j mk mit 1 it + βmjrmit 1xjit + βg Dgit + 0.5[ β jpxjit xpit ] + φ( iit, kit ) + ηit, (3) m j g j p R k where 2 φ(i,k ) = β + β k + 0.5[ β k ] + g it it 0 K it KK it t ( i it, k it ) is a third-order polynomial series in (the logs of) investment and capital input. 15 φ controls for unobserved productivity, so the error term is not correlated with the inputs and (3) does not suffer from simultaneity bias. 15 Petrin, Poi, and Levinsohn (2004) suggested using third order polynomial series to approximate unknown functions of this type. 15

18 Second, to control for selection bias, the probability of the plant staying in the market is estimated by a probit model, using a polynomial series in lagged investment and capital stock. The resulting model: y ˆ β x ˆ βt ˆ β x t ˆ β k t ˆ β x k ˆ β R ˆ β R it j j jit t j jt jit kt it j jk jit it m m mit 1 j mk mit 1 it ˆ ˆ ˆ βmjrmit 1xjit βg Dgit 0.5[ β jpxjit xpit ] m j g j p = β + β + ˆ φ β β ˆ + ξ + η 2 2 Kkit KKkit g( t 1 Kkit 1 KKkit 1, Pit) it it, (4) k where Pˆit is the survival probability and g( ) is approximated by a second-order polynomial in φ ˆ 2 t 1 β K kit 1 β KK kit 1 and Pˆ, thus controls for unobserved plant it differences and sample selection as well as simultaneity. Empirical Results The parameter estimates of equation (4), with all characteristics variables (production function arguments other than the inputs) lagged by one period as an additional control for endogeneity and input cross-effects with the trade variables omitted due to overall insignificance, and with significant cross-effects of outsourcing variables in bold font, are presented in Table The associated first-order output elasticities, evaluated on average across the full sample 18 and for five output size quantiles, 19 are reported in Tables 4 and To evaluate the robustness of our model to considering the outsourcing and trade variables endogenous we alternatively included them for estimation as state variables, based on a second order polynomial series in investment, capital and these variables, for both steps. We did not interact the trade and outsourcing variables with the input variables because convergence problems arise from the increased number of nuisance parameters. Estimation without the interactions, however, did not substantively change the results. The only difference was that the coefficient on SUB O became positive and insignificant. The order of the productivity effect of other trade and outsourcing variables were consistent with those in Table We pooled the apparel and textile industries but tested to see whether coefficients for the two industries varied by interacting the industry dummy with inputs, trade and outsourcing variables. The test results, with P-value of 0.329, show that the regression coefficients do not significantly differ by industry. Although textile firms are generally somewhat larger and more capital-intensive than apparel firms, it is very common in the literature to pool these industries since they have similar characteristics. 18 The standard errors are thus computed using the delta method, a generalization of the Central Limit Theorem derived using the Taylor series approximations. We implement the delta method using TSP, which 16

19 First consider the output elasticities for the inputs, ε Y,Xj = ln Y/ ln X j = y/ x j, from Tables 4 and 5. On average, M comprises about a 72 percent output share, 20 although it slightly increases with the size of plant. In fact all elasticities and thus returns to scale (RTS) are increasing across the quantiles; scale economies prevail and are slightly greater for larger plants. On average L T contributes about seven percent, L N twenty percent, K four percent, and E three percent, to output production. The extent of substitutability or complementarity of intermediate materials with other inputs is evident from the M cross-terms β Mj in Table 3, which are equivalent to the elasticities ε M,Xj = 2 y/ m x j due to the second-order logarithmic functional form. The negative β Mj estimates indicate that M substitutes for all other inputs. This might be expected since increasing intermediate materials conceptually involves reductions in value added inputs, as well as inputs like energy that would likely track K rather than M use (Berndt and Wood, 1979). The largest (in absolute value) estimate is for L N, at , followed by that for L T, at , so increasing M reduces labor demand the most, and unskilled (more likely used for material processing) relatively more than skilled labor. To evaluate outsourcing effects more directly, consider the first-order output elasticities ε Y,SUBI, ε Y,SUBO and ε Y,IMPM in Tables 4 and 5. Both SUB I and IMP M exhibit a significantly (at the 5 and 10 percent levels) positive productivity relationship; output per unit of input increases with the shares of subcontracted inputs and imported materials. In utilizes the parameter estimates from our model and their corresponding variance covariance matrix to evaluate the elasticities at average values of the inputs. 19 For the quantiles, q(p) is a elasticity for which at least a specified fraction p of the data values is less than or equal to q(p) and at least (1-p) is equal to or greater than q(p). E.g., q(.10) is the value for which at least 10% of the data are equal to or less than and 90% equal to or greater than. In our case the median RTS estimate is 1.059, so for at least 50 percent of the plants RTS 1.059, and for 50 percent RTS This is a share in the sense that, e.g., for M, ln Y/ ln M = MP M M/Y (where MP M, the marginal product of M, equals P M /P Y, the ratio of the prices of materials and output, with profit maximization. 17

20 reverse, more output subcontracting implies significantly (at the 10 percent level) lower plant productivity. Insights about the input biases driving these overall estimates may be gained from the estimated cross terms in Table 3. Recall that the outsourcing cross-effects β j,subi, β j,subo and β j,impm (for all inputs j) imply the second-order elasticities such as ε j,subi = β j,subi that capture input composition effects. For example, the parameter estimate β LT,SUBI represents the symmetric elasticities ε LT,SUBI = 2 y/ l T SUB I = 2 y/ SUB I l T = ε SUBI,LT. The positive and significant (at the 10 percent level) first-order SUB I coefficient β SUBI, representing the overall productivity effect of input subcontracting, is augmented by a strong positive L T bias. The significantly (at the 1 percent level) positive β LT,SUBI estimate shows that a higher share of subcontracted inputs implies greater administrative and technical (skilled) labor intensity. However, the negative and significant (at the 5 percent level) β LN,SUBI estimate indicates that this is also associated with more use of unskilled labor. Note also that input subcontracting substantively affects only the labor shares; all other cross-effects are insignificant. The positive productivity impact of SUB I evident from its output elasticity in Table 3 is driven entirely by the positive first-order and L T effects; all other interaction terms are negative but less significant (statistically and in magnitude). This pattern of SUB I -L T complementarity and SUB I -L P substitutability implies that subcontracting inputs reduces in-house production of lower-productivity and -skill activities or processes (e.g., those provided by unskilled production line workers) or services (e.g., janitorial workers), rather than services of skilled workers (e.g., legal or accounting services). It also may be that more input subcontracting requires administrative and technical expertise due to greater required supervision or support of contractors. 18

21 By contrast, higher levels of subcontracted output imply significantly less reliance on skilled labor, supporting the notion that subcontract-receiving plants are more lowtech. Output subcontracting is also associated with lower levels of intermediate materials (suggesting more use of lower value primary rather than processed materials), but a greater energy share (perhaps required for the additional processing). The lower M and L N levels for subcontract-receiving plants underlie the overall negative SUB O output elasticity. Increasing imported materials also implies lower domestic materials and skilled labor use, but not significantly. The only significant input bias for IMP M is a positive energy effect. The dominant effect of IMP M is therefore reflected by the first order coefficient β IMPM ; imports have little effect on input composition. That is, the primarily negative input biases are too small to counteract the strong positive overall effect. The outsourcing impacts on returns to scale (implied by the sums of the crosseffects with respect to the inputs) are negative, with the strongest effect from imported materials. Specifically, ε RTS,SUBI = , ε RTS,SUBO = , and ε RTS,IMPM = , so the combined biases of the SUB I and IMP M outsourcing factors reduce returns to scale. It is also worth noting that the first and second order derivatives with respect to the trend, β t and β tt, which are significantly positive and negative, respectively, indicate that overall productivity is increasing over time at a decreasing rate. Further, linkages of trade factors with outsourcing vary by outsourcing channel. There is no significant relationship between the benefits of input subcontracting and trade status (EXP, FDI, or IMP M ). However, the effects between SUB O and these trade variables are significant, with those for EXP negative, and for FDI and IMP M positive. These estimates imply that firms that import materials or have foreign ownership do not have as 19

22 low productivity as other output contracting plants, but those that export actually have worse productivity. Conversely, the (positive) productive impacts of trade factors evident from their output elasticities are smaller for exporters and larger for plants with foreign ownership or that are importers, if they subcontract output. Note also that although input cross-terms for EXP and FDI were excluded from our final model due to their overall insignificance, two broad tendencies were evident when interactions among input shares and trade variables were included in preliminary estimation. First, firms with a higher export share tended to have a lower unskilled labor share. This is generally consistent with the implication from studies such as Feenstra and Hanson (1996, 1999) that internationally best practice production requires increasing skilled labor use at the expense of unskilled workers. Second, a negative cross-effect between FDI and M was apparent, but β FDI,SUBO became insignificant. This connection between M and SUB O effects is captured in our final model by the negative β M,SUBO estimate. That is, if plants with lower materials shares experience greater productive contributions from both SUB O and FDI, subcontracted output and foreign share are in a sense complements, consistent with our positive estimate of β FDI,SUBO. Concluding Remarks In this paper we have used a translog production function model, estimated by procedures that accommodate simultaneity and selection issues, to measure the first- (productivity) and second- (input composition) order effects of domestic and foreign outsourcing, and the linkages among these productive patterns and trade factors. We find significant substitution between intermediate materials and value added inputs, especially for labor, implying that plants have strong potential to outsource 20

23 processing activities carried out by in-house labor and capital inputs. Increased intermediate inputs imply less use especially of unskilled labor, followed by skilled labor. More direct outsourcing measures show that higher shares of both imported materials and subcontracted inputs are associated with significantly greater productivity., The effect of foreign outsourcing (importing materials) is not, however, associated with substantive input composition changes or biases. The strong positive first-order effect is only slightly counteracted by lower productive contributions of intermediate materials and skilled labor. The input subcontracting effect is by contrast driven by a strongly positive skilled labor bias; firms that subcontract more inputs are more skilled-labor-intensive, so these input choices are complements. The reverse is true for unskilled labor. This supports the suggestion in the literature that firms that subcontract inputs tend to be more productive high-skill firms, even with other measurable factors controlled for. Plants that outsource outputs (receive subcontracts) are instead less productive. This negative productivity relationship is associated with significantly lower shares of skilled labor and purchased intermediate materials, supporting the suggestion in the literature that subcontract receiving firms tend to be lower productivity/skill firms, all else constant. The productive implications of output subcontracting, however, vary depending on the plant s international linkages. Plants that subcontract output but also have a foreign share or are importers are more productive, and exporters even less productive. This is consistent with suggestions in the literature that plants associated with multinational corporations (FDI plants) tend also to receive subcontracts from those corporations, although the negative (but insignificant) FDI-SUB I cross-effect suggests that this is not true for input subcontracting. 21

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