Outsourcing Economics

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1 Outsourcing Economics Global Value Chains in Capitalist Development WILLIAM MILBERG New School for Social Research, New York DEBORAH WINKLER Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis, New York CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY PRESS

2 Contents List of Figures List of Tables List of Appendices List of Variables List of Abbreviations Acknowledgments page xi xv xvii xix xxiii xxv 1 Introduction The Public Debate versus the Economics Profession "Ricardo Is Still Right..." Perceived and Actual Effects of Globalization The "Kletzer Effect" A Global Value Chain Approach to Offshoring Globalization and the Economic Crisis of The Governance of Value Chains Re-Embedding the Market An Interdisciplinary Account of Offshoring 29 2 The New Wave of Globalization Measures of Offshoring The Changing Nature of Trade in Intermediates Trade and Broader Measures of Offshoring U.S. Aggregate Offshoring Intensities U.S. Sectoral Offshoring Intensities Drivers of the New Wave of Globalization Trade Crisis and Recovery 54 VII

3 viii Contents 3 What Role for Comparative Advantage? Introduction The Fall and Revival of Comparative Advantage The Fall of Comparative Advantage The New International Economics Backlash The Revival of Comparative Advantage Models of Offshoring in a Comparative Advantage Framework Limits of Comparative Advantage Conceptual Limits Historical Limits Ethical Limits Conclusion Lead Firm Strategy and Global Value Chain Structure Trade, Profits, and Investment Cost Markups, the Profit Share, and Offshoring The Persistence of Oligopoly Global Value Chains and Heightened Competition among Suppliers Endogenous Asymmetry of Market Structure in Global Value Chains Power and the Distribution of Valued Added Sustainability of the Asymmetry What Drives Foreign Direct Investment? Determinants of Global Value Chain Structure Transactions Cost-Based Theories Resource-Based Theories and the Shift to Core Competence Beyond Transactions Cost Minimization: Global Value Chain Governance Strategies A Classical Approach to Offshoring Relevance of Ricardo's Dynamic Gains from Trade Static and Dynamic Gains from Offshoring Conclusion Economic Insecurity in the New Wave of Globalization Economic Insecurity Varieties of Capitalism and the Burden of Economic Risk Strictness of Employment Legislation versus Labor Support 163

4 Contents ix The Burden of Economic Risk Connections between Globalization and Economic Insecurity Skill-Biased Shifts of Labor Demand Overall Labor Demand Labor Share of Income Displacement from Trade Elasticity of Labor Demand and the Threat Effect Offshoring and the Labor Market: Econometric Evidence Offshoring and Labor DemandHn the United States Offshoring and the Labor Share in the United States Offshoring and the Labor Share: The Role of Labor Market Support Actual and Perceived Effects of Offshoring Financialization and the Dynamics of Offshoring The Shift to Core Competence, Offshoring, and Financialization Decline in Investment Increase in Financialization Offshoring, Capital Accumulation, and Financialization: Econometric Evidence Offshoring and Capital Accumulation in the United States Offshoring and Financialization in the United States Sustainability and Replicability of the Globalization-Financialization Link Sustainability Replicability Conclusion: Interdependence of Globalization and Finance in the Global Crisis Economic Development as Industrial Upgrading in Global Value Chains 23'8 7.1 Vertically-Specialized Industrialization From Import Substitution to Export Orientation to Vertical Specialization Entering Global Value Chains through Export Processing Zones Economic Upgrading versus Social Upgrading Upgrading Defined and Measured 248

5 x Contents Economic and Social Upgrading at the National Level Economic and Social Upgrading in Global Value Chains Gender Bias in Industrial Upgrading Obstacles to Upgrading: Prebisch-Singer Trap for the Twenty-First Century? Outsourcing Economics Global Business and the Polanyian Moment Trade and Exchange Rate Politics k Profits and the Macroeconomic Imbalances Capturing the Gains from Globalization Maximizing Dynamic Gains and Reducing Financialization Reducing the Cost of Job Loss and Promoting x Innovation Reducing Asymmetries and Increasing Accountability for Social Standards in Global Value Chains Industrial Policy in the Era of Vertically-Specialized Industrialization Alternative Sources of Demand Capitalism's Explanation System 313 References 317 Index 345

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