CAIMUN 2018 Canada International Model United NAtions UNSC Backgrounder Topic B: Nuclear Non-Proliferation
Introduction In World War II, the world was introduced to the horrific capabilities of atomic bombs, which have revolutionized the face of modern warfare. The two instances of its usage, both by the United States against Japan, massacred over 200,000 Japanese civilians and military personnel. Ever since, the morality and ethics of such gruesome weapons have remained as a topic of controversy throughout the 20th and 21st century. Currently, the known nations acknowledging the possession of nuclear weapons are the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, and North Korea, with Israel denying global accusations. Upon their first ever usage in World War II by the United States, global powers rushed to develop their own atomic bombs. Indeed, countries all admired the destructive power of the two bombs that effectively won the US the war. This upsurge in nuclear weapons only increased in light of the Cold War, when the United States and the Soviet Union rapidly produced atomic bombs and missiles. Truly, it was not until the Cuban Missile Crisis that the two superpowers finally realized how close they were to bringing the Doomsday Clock to midnight; that is, global nuclear armageddon. Since then, the world has taken on the agenda of eliminating nuclear weapons through non-proliferation agreements. In light of the current tensions among militant states such as Iran and North Korea, delegates must explore and fully understand the why nuclear weapons pose such a massive threat to global stability; one must recognize that the risk of a nuclear attack would greatly increase if nuclear arms fell into the hands of non-state actors. In addition, delegates must take into account the impact of the veto power in the council. Typically, resolutions regarding the topic of Nuclear Proliferation come quite easily in General Assemblies, where multiple resolutions can be passed at once or changed accordingly to major players preference. However, with the inclusion of the veto power, delegates must come together in hopes of passes a resolution in full consensus: a much more strenuous process. Timeline 1942 The United States of America attempts to create the world s first nuclear weapon with the establishment of the Manhattan Project. 1945 The world witnesses the first ever nuclear test with the nuclear weapon Trinity, with the results yielding over 20,000 tonnes of TNT. 1945 The United States drops two nuclear bombs over the two Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, with one being uranium-based and the other plutonium-based. Total casualties accumulate over 200,000 deaths, with many more future victims due to radiation. 1946 The United Nations moves against nuclear weapons with the UN General Assembly, attempting to eliminate nuclear weapons and mitigate any future detriments. 1
1949 The Soviet Union successfully tests its first nuclear weapon and becomes the second nation to acquire a nuclear device. This marks the beginning of the nuclear arms race. 1961 The Soviet Union constructs and explodes the most powerful nuclear bomb known to man, nicknamed the Tsar Bomba. Being a 58-megaton bomb, this so-called father of all bombs dwarfs the largest nuclear bomb the US has ever tested, which was a little over 20-megatons. 1962 The Cuban Missile Crisis occurs, nearly resulting in a full-scale nuclear war between the United States and the Soviet Union. The world becomes increasingly aware of Mutually Assured Destruction. 1968 The Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Arms Treaty (NPT) is established and implemented by the United Nations in which states agree to end all pursuits of nuclear weapons and disarm preestablished arms. The NPT stands as the first and only legally-binding commitment to nuclear disarmament. 1996 The Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty is signed by the United States, Russia, UK, France, and China. However, it has yet to come into full force. 2003 North Korea unilaterally withdraws from the NPT 2006 The Democratic People s Republic of Korea announces its success in testing a nuclear weapon, provoking international condemnation. Historical Analysis Nuclear bombs are unquestionably the deadliest weapons ever known to mankind. In 1945, upon the United State s inaugural success in testing the first ever nuclear bomb, the future of warfare took a drastic turn. In early August that year, the US dropped two atomic bombs on the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, massacring an unimaginable count of 200,000 Japanese civilians and military personnel, prompting Japan to agree to an unconditional surrender shortly afterward. World War II was finally over; however, this victory was without a heavy cost initial casualties aside, the world had just witnessed the most destructive and powerful weapon known to man, and all hungered for it. And thus began a global race for nuclear arms, notably with the United States and the Soviet Union directly engaged in conflict over the course of the Cold War. Denoted as the competitive and rapid proliferation of arms and weapons, the stakes of a nuclear arms race remained largely ignored until the occurrence of the Cuban Missile Crisis, an event nearly leading to full-blown war between the US and USSR. Shortly after the conclusion of WWII and the detonation of the atomic bombs Little Boy and Fat Man, many nations initiated their own research into nuclear weapons. These nations range from the United Kingdom and France to Israel. 2
Due to a plethora of spies operating within the United States inaugural nuclear weapons program, President Stalin of the Soviet Union was fully aware of the existence of America s weapons. Thus, he sought to create his own. During WWII, Soviet efforts towards developing such arms were restrained by the nation s lack of uranium; however, such resources were discovered in Eastern Europe shortly after the second world war, allowing the communist state to shock the world with its successful detonation of an atomic bomb in 1949. In 1952, when the US successfully constructed and tested the world s first hydrogen bomb, a weapon over 2000 times more powerful than the Hiroshima nuclear bomb. In 1953, the Soviet Union produced a similar weapon. Such deadly militaristic advancements planted the seeds for the theory of MAD, or Mutually Assured Destruction, which theorizes that if Russia attacked the US with nuclear weapons, or vice versa, retaliation would ensure that both sides will be devastated with no winner. The Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962 was the tensest political and military standoff of the Cold War. After President John F. Kennedy of the United States issued a naval blockade in light of the Soviet Union shipping nuclear weapons to Cuba, the communist state decreed such an act as direct aggression. Soon after, when an American reconnaissance plane was shot down by Soviet forces in Cuba, the US readied its forces for a full-scale invasion. However, the two superpowers ultimately managed to come to a compromise: the Soviet Union would dismantle and remove the missiles in Cuba if U.S. leaders promised to not invade Cuba and removed their missiles in Turkey. Despite this confrontation, the USSR was not compelled to seek nuclear non-proliferation, but rather, the communist superpower was convinced that it must invest in and develop long-range nuclear weapon systems capable of reaching America from its homeland. In 1968, the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, otherwise known as the Non-Proliferation Treaty( (NPT), opened for signatories. Coming into force in 1970, this treaty was tailored towards mitigating the spread of nuclear technology in light of numerous recent nuclear advancements by global powers such as UK, France, and China. Later in 1996, the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty opened for signatures, with all of the Permanent Five States of the Security Council complying as signatories. India notably refuses to sign the treaty on claims of requiring nuclear deterrent. Current Situation The days are gone forever when our enemies could blackmail us with nuclear bombs. - Kim Jong-un, Supreme Leader of North Korea North Korea The Democratic People s Republic of Korea claims to have established and accelerated its nuclear programs with the intention of gaining a nuclear deterrent. Under Kim Jong-un s leadership, DPRK has continued to see the development of nuclear weapons and arms. The Supreme Leader claims that he would not use nuclear weapons first unless aggressive hostile forces use nuclear weapons to invade on our sovereignty. 1 As of early 2018, UN officials estimate that North Korea possesses approximately 60 nuclear weapons. However, despite the DPRK claims, experts are certain that the state does not possess the technology of hydrogen bombs. Despite Kim s rhetoric 1 http://web.archive.org/web/20160508122147/http://abcnews.go.com/international/wirestory/north-korea-partygive-kim-jong-title-38948654 3
of using North Korea s nuclear arms solely to deter other nations from attacking with their own, he has also labeled UN sanctions as a violent violation of our sovereignty, threatening to attack Guam. After President Donald Trump of the United States entered into power, US-North Korean relations have taken a turn for the worst. With numerous threats exchanged between Trump and Kim on a normal basis, both sides have threatened to use their respective nuclear arsenals. In response to North Korea s defiance, the international community has imposed a plethora of heavy sanctions on the state; despite these sanctions, Kim Jong-un has continued to accelerate its nuclear programs. The above timeline denotes milestones of major sanctions enacted against the North Korean regime. [https://www.cfr. org/backgrounder/what-know-about-sanctions-north-korea] 4
On March 9, 2018, South Korean officials bore news that Kim was suddenly committed to denuclearization and would refrain from any further nuclear and missile tests, wishing to meet U.S. President Donald Trump. Mr.Trump accept this invitation for a face-to-face meeting, set for May later this year. This meeting would be the first in history between the leaders of US and the DPRK. Iran Initially, during the mid-1900 s, Iran s nuclear power program inaugurated with the direct support of the United States. However, upon Iran s Islamic revolution in 1979, all ties between the West and the Shiite state were severed; American involvement in the Iranian nuclear program officially ended. Later in 1984, with the help of China, a new nuclear research center was established, and with it, accelerated nuclear development. For decades since then, Iran has repeatedly asserted that its nuclear programs have been tailored solely towards the development of nuclear energy and not militaristic aims. In the late 1990s, Russia and Iran established a joint research organization, with the former providing Russian nuclear scientists and technical information to the latter. In 2003, Iran refused to sign a protocol encourage by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Mohamed ElBaradei. That year, the IAEA issued a report that detailed the need for transparency, arguably directed at Iran. In August of that same year, IAEA inspectors in Iran uncovered traces of highly enriched uranium - the kind of uranium generally used in nuclear weapons. In response to this funding, Iran claimed that it was contamination from equipment brought from external countries. Eventually, Iran agreed to sign the Nuclear Non- Proliferation Treaty. A part of the treaty outlined that the state s nuclear facilities were to be opened for unannounced regulatory checks. In 2009, the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) declares that Iran has reached nuclear weapons breakout capability, claiming that Iran had enough low-enriched uranium to construct a nuclear weapon. One year later, the IAEA reports that Iran may be secretly developing a nuclear warhead. The world became increasingly worried as Iran s nuclear programs accelerated; consequently, the P5s and Iran reach an agreement in 2015 in which sanctions against Iran would be lightened in exchange for the limiting their nuclear activities. This agreement is also known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, better known to many as the Iran Nuclear Deal. UN/International Involvement International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) The IAEA s mandate is to regulate international nuclear usage in hopes of striving towards a future where nuclear power is utilized in peaceful means. Working closely with the United Nations, the IAEA regularly conducts investigations and reports to evaluate states compliance with the NPT. All of the IAEA s activities are executed in coherence with the UN Charter, with regular reports to the United Nations General Assembly. 5
Economic Sanctions - North Korea Since North Korea s inaugural success in developing nuclear weapons, a plethora of sanctions have been imposed on the rogue state by the international community. However, being difficult to enforce, such sanctions have proven to be futile and even counterintuitive. Countries such as China, which accounts for approximately 90 percent of DPRK s trade, has little motivation to enforce certain sanctions. These sanctions may have added urgency to North Korea s nuclear development, prompting Kim Jong-un to accelerate missile production and tests. It is imperative to recognize that such sanctions often miss their intended target and instead land on innocent North Korean citizens. Indeed, one must realize that DPRK is bent on revoking funding for the military last, and is willing to suffer economically to preserve its nuclear program vowing to maintain its arsenal at all costs. 2 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) Also known as the Iran Nuclear Deal, the JCPOA was a negotiation made by the five permanent members of the Security Council and the European Council with Iran. Its purpose was to reduce and mitigate Iran s rapidly accelerating nuclear program, with Iran agreeing to eliminate its stockpile of medium-enriched uranium in exchange for lighter sanctions. 3 This agreement has proven to be extremely effective, with the IAEA confirming that Iran has fully met its nuclear commitments. Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) The NPT opened for signature in 1968 and came into force in 1970. Currently, it stands as the world s arms limitation with more states in compliance than any other, with 190 nations in agreement and only 5 non-parties. 4 Although all 5 of the permanent state members on the Security Council have signed this, many of them, particularly China and Russia, have been extremely slow in ratifying and disabling their nuclear stockpiles. Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) The CTBT, opened for signatures in 1996, strictly prohibits all nuclear explosions on earth, in space, or underwater after 2000 nuclear tests were conducted from 1945 to 1996. The CTBT currently has 183 countries as signatories; however, only 164 have ratified the treaty. Since its inception, three states have directly infringed upon the treaty: North Korea, India, and Pakistan. Potential Solutions Nuclear Disarmament The following passages denote, in ascending order of intensity, different levels of nuclear disarmament the committee may look to implement as potential solutions. Afterall, the terminology of nuclear disarmament is far more complex and multifaceted than a mere black and white course of action. 2 https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-know-about-sanctions-north-korea 3 https://www.state.gov/e/eb/tfs/spi/iran/jcpoa/ 4 http://disarmament.un.org/treaties/t/npt 6
Gradual Disarmament Firstly, a lighter degree of disarmament. This is quite similar to the status quo, in which member states of the NPT are subject to the cessation of nuclear weapon production and the gradual dismantling of such weapons to render usage obsolete. This specific level is best suitable for states in possession of lesser-known amounts of nuclear arms. Indeed, upon historically analyzing the NPT in Russia, a nation with a substantive amount of nuclear arms, one can recognize the ineffectiveness and stasis of the NPT in such states; Russia has largely failed to meet the allocated disarmament quotas designated by the NPT. Increased Enforcement The second technique is a harsher and more forceful degree of disarmament. Rather than relying on the discretions of each nation, utilizing organizations such as the IAEA to actively supervise the dismantling of nuclear arms in nuclear-abundant nations may serve as a more plausible mean of ensuring disarmament in said countries. In other words, increased enforcement. Nuclear-Weapons-Free Zones Nuclear-Weapons-Free Zones are areas in which agreements between a group of states have been established regarding the usage, development or deployment of nuclear weapons. Establishing these zones in areas of nuclear technology research and nuclear energy facilities will allow for the UN to systematically isolate areas for non-militaristic nuclear endeavors. Sanctions Imposing sanctions on nations infringing upon the NPT or in non-compliance with the NPT is a mean that will incentivize cooperation and deter perpetrators progress in advancement. In addition, negotiations such as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or Iran Nuclear Deal, may stem from such sanctions. Bloc Positions Major Nuclear Actors China strictly opposes the proliferation of nuclear weapons but also emphasizes the importance of respecting the national sovereignty of states currently in possession of nuclear arms. The People s Republic of China is a signatory of the Non-proliferation Treaty but has not fully ratified the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. As aforementioned, China provides North Korea with nearly 90 percent of its trade, neglecting sanctions against the rogue state. Fearing outcomes consequenting from potential regime change in North Korea, China desires to oppose Kim Jong-un s nuclear programs but does not wish to trigger DPRK s collapse or permanently antagonize the country. President Donald Trump of the United States has increased efforts in negotiating with Chinese officials in an effort to sway the Asian country in cutting off a degree of trade with North Korea. Russia stands as the second-ever country to gain nuclear capabilities in 1949, with its current massive arsenal and stockpile of nuclear arms it gained from the Nuclear Arms Race the Soviet Union held against the United States of America during the events of the Cold War. In 2010, Russia claimed that they will not hesitate to defensively use nuclear weapons if deemed necessary/provoked. 7
Although the US is the pioneer of nuclear technology, it firmly advocates against the militarization of nuclear technology. The United States strongly believes in nuclear deterrence s role as an effective police in the international community. France currently resides as a global leader in nuclear energy, with investments towards both nuclear fission and fusion technology. However, unlike Russia, China, and the United States, France s nuclear program is less developed and perceived as less aggressive. Non-NPT States Firmly believing in the ideology of nuclear deterrence, India refuses to sign to NPT due to nuclear threats from neighbors Pakistan and China. Their arsenal of nuclear arms originated from the nuclear arms race that took between India and Pakistan from the 1970s to the late 1990s. Primarily, the issue with India s nuclear programs is the lack of transparency it has with both its security systems and nuclear system in general. Despite Iranian claim that its nuclear programs exist for peaceful purposes, the Shia state has repeatedly rejected or resisted IAEA inspections. Additionally, Iran claims to be in favour of a nuclear weapons-free Middle East. Fortunately, it has agreed to the Iran Nuclear Deal, enacted in light of worrying increasing Iranian nuclear activity; states such as the United States accuse Iran of possessing militaristic aims with nuclear technology. Discussion Questions 1. What significance did the Cold War have on nuclear proliferation? 2. What are the flaws and limitations of the theory of Mutually Assured Destruction? 3. Why do Western powers insist that the limited amount of nuclear arms should be held by solely them and none others? 4. How can we ensure that states claiming to be investing towards nuclear energy do not actually possess militaristic aims? (reference Iran as an example) Further Resources https://www.un.org/disarmament/wmd/nuclear/npt/ https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/intnonproagreements http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/non-proliferation/ appendices/nuclear-proliferation-case-studies.aspx http://issues.org/19-4/panofsky/ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=swua33fgxzu https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aydtjkti-2o Bibliography ABC News. Kim Jong Un Says Pyongyang Won t Use Nukes First. ABC News, 7 May 2016, web.archive.org/web/20160508122147/http://abcnews.go.com/ International/wireStory/north-korea-party-give-kim-jong-title-38948654. 8
Disarmament Treaties Database: Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). United Nations, United Nations, disarmament.un.org/treaties/t/npt. Nuclear Proliferation Case Studies - World Nuclear Association, www.world-nuclear.org/ information-library/safety-and-security/non-proliferation/appendices/nuclearproliferation-case-studies.aspx. U.S. Department of State, U.S. Department of State, www.state.gov/e/eb/tfs/spi/iran/ jcpoa/. What to Know About the Sanctions on North Korea. Council on Foreign Relations, Council on Foreign Relations, www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-know-aboutsanctions-north-korea. 9