tepav The Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey Neither good nor bad: Just already around Symposium on New Technologies, Jobs, Growth and development Washington, DC 22.September.2017
Slide 2 Framework How to make use of the new industrial revolution? Biotechnology, Nanotechnology, ICT from blockchain to IoT What NIR means? From carbon based to non carbon based growth Low oil prices here to stay No trade off between jobs/growth and climate change measures SDG agenda will be strengthened New tech mean productivity growth in all sectors at the same time Innovation based growth in developing countries Better G20 agenda How to do it in developing countries? Structural reforms agenda for tech transfer and most importantly technology diffusion Localization agenda to become structural reform agenda Decentralization of innovation through startups: Global diffusion of innovation New outlets for local value creation?
Slide 3 From carbon based to non carbon based growth Low oil prices here to stay Bad for exporters good for importers. (GCC, AZ) (TR) No trade off between jobs/growth and climate change measures Good for SDGs. SDG agenda will be strengthened Social, economic and environmental vulnerabilities From sustainable cities to sustainable employment New tech mean productivity growth in all sectors at the same time From structural change to within sector productivity growth Good for TR New industrial policy: Focus on Technology not on sectors Innovation based growth Tech transfer/diffusion means innovation based growth everywhere More symmettric G20 agenda Asymmetry between finance and development tracks is no more
Slide 4 Looking at the big picture... 1992 Source: Defense Meteorological Satellite Program, based on TEPAV Analysis
Slide 5 no need to feel anxious 2016 Source: Defense Meteorological Satellite Program, based on TEPAV Analysis
1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Slide 6 Turkey has a new structural issue Turkey grew through internal migration in the past 30 years. It can no longer do so. Urbanization rates of Finland, Germany, China, Egypt and Turkey (1850-2015) 90 80 70 60 50 40 Finland Germany Turkey China Egypt 30 20 10 0
7 Need to increase Turkey s capability set in new technology platforms Technological advantage in biotechnology, nanotechnology and ICT, 2013 Source: OECD
Slide 8 An agenda for development? How to achieve innovation based growth in developing countries? Structural reforms agenda for technology transfer Structural reforms agenda for technology diffusion Localization agenda to become structural reform agenda? How to define accelarator projects Large public expenditure program, bargaining power A sector where new tech is already commercialized Decentralization of innovation through startups: Global diffusion of innovation Are startups new outlets for local value creation for MNCs?
Slide 9 Innovation=Technology transfer through FDI Horizontal Areas Macroeconomics Education/ Human Capital Law Science Life Sciences Material Sciences Technology Platform Biotechnology Nanotechnology Accelerator Sector and Project Pharmaceutical Industry Construction Sectors to be transformed through Innovation Textile Plastics Chemistry Automotive Food Medical Device Concrete Tools/ Projects Public procurement policy Ecosystem pioneers & Funds Start-up incubators Efficiency of Administration Foreign Policy/EU process Computer Sciences ICT Vision Digital economy Agriculture Energy Transportation Technolojgy specific clustering Policy/ Strategy Oversee Unit Urbanization Sustainable Growth Sustainable Development and Green Industry High Tech Production and Export Redirecting funds according to goal & focus
Number of NMEs Approvals Number of NMEs Approvals New Drugs (NMEs) Approved by Size of Drug Sponsor/Owner Slide 10 How to do it in Turkey? Technology start-ups? 50 40 30 20 10 0 50 15 16 11 14 9 10 4 6 11 10 25 4 5 4 9 18 8 13 13 13 14 16 2 9 13 4 6 4 7 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 New Drugs (NMEs) Approved by Size of Drug Originator Source: FDA 40 8 6 30 8 7 12 5 29 4 8 2 4 2 20 6 1 3 5 22 6 18 20 4 2 10 9 15 14 15 15 2 13 0 5 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Smaller pharma/biotech companies Other large pharma/biotech companies Top ten pharma companies
Looking for structural reforms including concrete programs for a viable doing business agenda? Global Innovation Index heatmap of G20 countries in comparision with Turkey, 2016 Global Innovation Index Institutions Human capital and research Source: WIPO Global Innovation Index, TEPAV calculations Innovation Input Infrastructure Market sophistication Business Sophistication Innovation Output Knowledge & technology outputs Turkey 42 82 43 62 46 86 45 31 UK 3 13 7 4 4 14 9 3 USA 4 17 14 13 1 11 4 13 Germany 10 18 10 22 16 15 8 7 South Korea 11 31 3 9 14 13 5 21 Canada 15 6 22 11 3 20 23 23 Japan 16 15 13 7 8 10 13 36 France 18 26 11 8 15 16 21 15 Australia 19 10 9 6 10 23 32 18 China 25 79 29 36 21 7 6 30 Italy 29 38 31 18 25 36 25 32 Russia 43 73 23 60 63 37 40 66 Saudi Arabia 49 72 32 39 38 66 75 47 South Korea 54 46 55 85 17 56 63 77 Mexico 61 65 53 67 51 77 70 62 India 66 96 63 87 33 57 43 94 Brazil 69 78 60 59 57 39 67 90 Argentina 81 106 47 65 106 69 97 83 Indonesia 88 122 92 80 62 106 71 85 Note: Coloring is based on Turkey s performance. Green if country is doing better than Turkey, red if vice-versa Slide 11 Creative outputs
Slide 12 Conclusions NIR neither good nor bad: Already here Best of the times, worst of the times New technologies are bringing in a solution to countries like Turkey Better than what we now have How to define an agenda for tech transfer and tech diffusion in the developing world? New framework for structural reforms