A 349829 Terrorism, Asymmetric Warfare, and Weapons of Mass Destruction Defending the U.S. Homeland ANTHONY H. CORDESMAN Published in cooperation with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington, D.C. Westport, Connecticut London
Contents Acknowledgments xi 'Chapter 1 The Changing Face of Asymmetric Warfare 1 ' and Terrorism The Growing Focus on Terrorism 7 Terrorism versus Asymmetric Warfare 8 Chapter 2 Risk Assessment: Planning for "Non-patterns" 11 and Potential Risk Looking Beyond Emotional Definitions of Terrorism 11 Rethinking the Mid- and Long-term Risk of Chemical, Biological, 13 Radiological, and Nuclear (CBRN) Attack Patterns and Non-patterns in the Number of Attacks 16 Casualties versus Incidents: The Lack of Correlation 16 U.S. and American Casualties versus International Casualties 20 Considering the Threat from State and Non-state Actors 25 States, "Terrorists," and Acts of War 25 Planning for Major Attacks and Asymmetric Warfare by State Actors 31 The Threat of "Proxies" and "Networks" 32 Dealing with Nuance and Complex Motives 32 Consideration of the Full Spectrum of Possible Types and Methods 33 of Attack: The Need to Consider "Worst Cases" Making Offense, Deterrence, Denial, Defense, and Retaliation Part 34 ' of Homeland Defense \ Linking Homeland Defense to Counterproliferation 36
vi Contents Chapter 3 Threat Prioritization: Seeking to Identify Current 39 and Future Threats Potential State Actors 39 A Department of State Assessment of State Threats 40 A Department of Defense Assessment of Threats from 45 Foreign States The Probable Lack of Well-Defined Strategic Warning of a 49 Threat from State Actors and Unpredictable Behavior in a Crisis Foreign Terrorists and Extremists 51 Continuing Threats and Counterterrorist Action 54 Major Foreign Terrorist Groups and Extremists 57 Threats from Foreign Students and Immigrants 74 Domestic Terrorists and Extremists 76 The Implications of Past Terrorist Attacks 80 Probability versus Probability Theory 85 Chapter 4 Types of Attack: Determining Future Methods 89 of Attack and the Needed Response Illustrative Attack Scenarios 92 "Conventional" Means of Attack 96 Weapons of Mass Destruction 97 Chemical Weapons As Means of Attack 101 The Impact and Variety of Possible Chemical Weapons 108 The Probable Lethality and Effectiveness of Chemical Attacks 109 Methods of Delivery 117 Detection and Interception 118 Acquiring Chemical Weapons 119 The Impact of Technological Change ' \T1 The Aunt Shinrikyo Case Study 122 Political and Psychological Effects 124 The Problem of Response 125 Biological Weapons As Means of Attack 128 Categorizing the Biological Threat. 135 Case Studies: Iraq and Russia 142 State Actor, Proxy, and Terrorist/Extremist Incidents to Date 147 The Yugoslav Smallpox Incident 150 Cases in the United States 150 The Lethality and Effectiveness of Current Biological Weapons 151 Means of Delivery 160 Manufacturing Biological Weapons 161 Changes in Technology and the Difficulty of Manufacture 166 The Growing Lethality of Biological Weapons and Growing 168 Ease of Manufacture New Types of Biological Weapons 169 Changes in Disease: Piggybacking on the Threat from Nature 170
Contents vii Agricultural and Ecological Attacks 174 The Problem of Response 177 Radiological Weapons As Means of Attack 194 The Practical Chances of Using Radiological Weapons 195 The Practical Risks and Effects of Using Radiological Weapons 196 Nuclear Weapons As Means of Attack 199 Lethality and Effectiveness 207 Is There a Threat from State Actors, Proxies, Terrorists, 216 and Extremists? The Problem of Getting the Weapon The Problem of Delivery 111 Dealing with the Risk and Impact of Nuclear Attacks 222 Chapter 5 Threat Assessment and Prioritization: 237 Identifying Threats Dr. Pangloss versus Chicken Little and the Boy Who Cried Wolf 238 The Problem of Detection, Warning, and Response 239 Living with Complexity and Uncertainty: A Flexible and 239 Evolutionary Approach The "Morning After," Multiple Attacks; The "Morning After" 242 and the "Learning Curve Effect" Chapter 6 U.S. Government Efforts to Create a Homeland 245 Defense Capability Key Presidential Decision Directives and Legislation Affecting 247 the Federal Response Ongoing Changes in the Structure of the Federal Effort 249 ; The Growth of the Federal Effort 250 The FY2000 Program 251 I The FY2001 Program 253 \ The Details of the Federal Effort 254 The Changing Patterns in Federal Spending 255 ' Planning and Programming the Overall Federal Effort 261 Antiterrorism, Counterterrorism, and Core Spending 264 Spending on Preparedness for Attacks Using Weapons of 269 Mass Destruction Chapter 7 Federal Efforts by Department and Agency 275 Department of Agriculture 276 National Animal Health Emergency Program 276 Central Intelligence Agency 277 Department of Commerce 289 Department of Defense 289 Analyzing the Role of the DOD 291 The Size of the Current DOD Effort 295
viii Contents Dedicated FY2001 DOD Expenditures for CBRN/WMD Homeland 297 Defense Key DOD Activities 300 Antiterrorism and Force Protection 303 Counterterrorism 306 Terrorism Consequence Management 307 Specialized DOD Teams and Units for Defense and Response 318 Research and Development 323 Intelligence 324 Counterforce Capability against an Adversary's Nuclear, Biological, 324 and Chemical Infrastructures The Cooperative Threat Reduction Program 327 Conclusions 328 Department of Energy 329 Office of Nonproliferation and National Security 329 Office of Emergency Management 330 Office of Defense Programs 330 Office of Emergency Response 330 Nuclear Emergency Search Team 330 Radiological Assistance Program 330 The Nuclear Safeguards, Security, and Emergency Operations 331 Program Research and Development 331 Environmental Protection Agency 331 Office of Solid Waste and Emergency Response 332 On-Scene Coordinator 332 Federal Emergency Management Agency 332 Response and Recovery Directorate 333 Preparedness, Training, and Exercises Directorate 333 U.S. Fire Administration 334 National Fire Academy and Emergency Management Institute 334 General Services Administration 336 Department of Health and Human Services 336 Metropolitan Medical Response Systems 337 National Pharmaceutical Stockpile Program 339 Public Health Surveillance System for WMD 340 Research and Development 341 Department of the Interior 341 Department of Justice and Federal Bureau of Investigation 341 National Domestic Preparedness Office 345 Office for State and Local Domestic Preparedness Support 350 National Domestic Preparedness Consortium 355 Awareness of National Security Issues and Response Program 356 National Institute of Justice 357 National Security Community 358 Nuclear Regulatory Commission 358
Contents ix Department of State 358 Embassy Protection 358 Office of the Coordinator for Counterterrorism 360 Bureau of Consular Affairs 362 Bureau of Diplomatic Security 362 Anti-Terrorism Assistance Program 362 Export Controls and Homeland Defense 363 Arms Control and Homeland Defense 363 Department of Transportation 364 Department of Treasury 364 Department of Veterans Affairs 366 Looking Beyond September 2001 367 Chapter 8 Federal, State, and Local Cooperation 373 Planning for Low- to Mid-Level Terrorism 374 West Nile Outbreak 375 The Lessons from "Jointness" 377 Chapter 9 How Other Nations Deal with These Threats 381 Leadership and Management 383 Policies and Strategies 384 Claimed Reliance on Criminal Prosecution As the Major Response 385 and Deterrent Oversight, Planning, Programming, and Budgeting 386 Resource Allocations Are Targeted at Likely Threats, Not 387 Vulnerabilities: Limited Concern with WMD Threats Learning from Foreign Countries 388 Chapter 10 Lessons from Recent Major Commissions 391 on Terrorism The Gilmore, Bremer, and Hart-Rudman Commissions 391 Areas Where the Commissions Made Similar Recommendations 394 Gilmore and Bremer Commissions: Executive Coordination and 394 Management Gilmore and Bremer Commissions: Congressional Oversight 397 Gilmore and Bremer Commissions: Intelligence Gathering and 398 Sharing Gilmore and Bremer Commissions: Clarify Authority, Command, 399 and Control Bremer and Hart-Rudman Commissions: Biological Pathogens, 402 International Consensus against Terrorism, and Strengthening of Public Health Systems Bremer and Hart-Rudman Commissions: Strengthening the 403 International Consensus against Terrorism and the International Convention for the Suppression of the Financing of Terrorism
x Contents Areas Where the Commissions Made Different Recommendations 403 Gilmore Commission: Threat Assessments 404 Gilmore Commission: National Strategy for Domestic Preparedness 404 and CBRN Terrorism Response Gilmore Commission: Standardization of Legal Terms 407 Gilmore Commission: National Standards for Equipment 407 Bremer Commission: Treatment of Former and Future States 409 of Concern Bremer Commission: Targeting Terrorist Financial Resources 410 Bremer Commission: Liability Insurance 411 Bremer Commission: Realistic Exercises 411 Chapter 11 Conclusions and Recommendations 415 Correcting the Strategic Gaps in the U.S. Approach to Homeland 416 Defense Focusing Less on Who's in Charge and More on What They Should 417 Be in Charge of Planning for Higher-Probability, Lower-Consequence, and Lower- 418 Probability, Higher-Consequence Events Planning for Terrorism and Asymmetric Warfare 421 Reacting to the Uncertain Nature of the Threat 424 The Lack of "Transparency" in Federal Programs 426 Effective Action Must Be Broad-Based and Suboptimize Efficiently 428 Focusing on Priorities, Programs, and Trade-offs: Creating Effective 430 Planning, Programming, and Budgeting Managing Research and Development, Rather Than Treating 434 Asymmetric Attacks, Terrorism, and the CBRN Threat As an Excuse for a "Wish List" and "Slush Fund" Looking Beyond CBRN Threats: Dealing with All Medical Risks 435 and Costs, the Need for a Comprehensive Public Information Capability, and the Linkage to Improved Strategic Deterrence and Response Capabilities Homeland Defense and/or Law Enforcement 438 The Role of the Intelligence Community and the Need for Improved 439 Intelligence The Challenge of Operations 442 Rule of Law, Human Rights, Asymmetric Warfare, High Levels of 443 Attack, and "New Paradigms" The Need for Central Coordination and Management of the Federal 444 Effort Broader Solutions and New Approaches to National Strategy: 446 Reacting to Asymmetric Warfare