ECONOMIC UPDATE JUDITH HILL, VP ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT May 2016
Today s Agenda Momentum & Fuel Livability Trends & Projections
NASHVILLE ECONOMIC REGION
NASHVILLE ECONOMIC SNAPSHOT 95.2 cost of living index (100 = U.S. average) 930,000+ labor force 1.83 million population (2.03% annual growth) $45,759 per capita income 3.7% unemployment rate (Jan. 2016) 24% are Sole Proprietors (21%= U.S. average) *Source: ACCRA Cost of Living Index 2015, TN Department of Labor 2016 and Bureau of Economic Analysis 2015
DIVERSE ECONOMY
ECONOMIC DRIVERS Health care 250,000 jobs $39B economic impact Manufacturing 82,100 jobs $9.5B economic impact Music & Entertainment 60,000 jobs $10B economic impact Tourism & Hospitality 55,000 jobs $5.7B economic impact
MOMENTUM & FUEL
THE NUMBERS #1 city for womenowned business February 2016, WalletHub #1 market for job growth and capital investment December 2016, Atlas Advertising #4 city for white collar job growth July 2015, Forbes #4 top state for doing business October 2015, Area Development Magazine #5 metro area for job growth over the past 5 years February 2016, Brookings Institute #6 lowest state tax burden March 2016, Forbes
THE REAL NUMBERS Nashville is economic engine of the state of Tennessee. Nashville accounted for 36% of state s job growth. (Dec. 2014-Dec. 2015) 1. Nashville 36.0% (35,400 jobs) 2. Memphis 11.4% (10,400) 3. Knoxville 10.2% (9,300) 4. Chattanooga 9.2% (8,400) Nashville accounted for 69% of the state s population growth. (July 2014 July 2015) 1. Nashville 69.4% (36,435 people) 2. Knoxville 11.5% (4,357) 3. Chattanooga 9.8% (3,579) 4. Memphis 2.3% (1,213) *Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and U.S. Census Bureau
JOB GROWTH Top ten metro in the U.S. for job growth over last 25 years. #10 Last 25 Years #8 Last 10 Years #3 Last 5 Years Austin San Jose Nashville Riverside Orlando 23.2% 20.8% 20.1% 19.4% 18.9% San Francisco 18.6% Denver 18.5% Raleigh 17.1% Dallas 17.1% Salt Lake City 16.3% *Ranking based on U.S. Metros with over 1M in Population. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
U. S. C I T I E S C R E AT I N G M O S T W H I T E C O L L A R J O B S 1. San Jose, CA (34.7% growth since 2009 / 7.9% in 2014) 2. San Francisco, CA (42.3% growth since 2009 / 9.0% in 2014) 3. Raleigh, NC (36.5% growth since 2009 / 8.6% in 2014) 4. Nashville (41.4% growth since 2009 / 4.3% in 2014) 5. Austin, TX (37.2% growth since 2009 / 4.3% in 2014) Source: Forbes/Bureau of Labor Statistics. July 2015)
A M E R I C A S N E W M A N U FA C T U R I N G B O O M TO W N S 1. Detroit, MI (31.3% growth since 2009 / 9.8% in 2014) 2. Farmington, MI (38.8% growth since 2009 / 5.1% in 2014) 3. Grand Rapids, MI (27.9% growth since 2009 / 3.7% in 2014) 4. Nashville (23.9% growth since 2009 / 3.4% in 2014) 5. Albany, NY (19.9% growth since 2009 / 2.8% in 2014) Source: Forbes/Bureau of Labor Statistics. July 2015)
RELOCATION TRACK RECORD West coast Pillsbury Winthrop Lyft Louisiana Pacific Asurion Service Source Eventbrite Omnicell Nissan Lennox East coast Jackson UBS Warby Parker Wonton Food, Inc. Beretta BNY Mellon Aramark Intermedix
BUSINESS RELOCATIONS AND EXPANSIONS July 2015 - present 110 business relocations and expansions 10,563 new announced jobs $2.64B capital investment 6.82M square feet
PIPELINE SECTOR BREAKDOWN 64 TOTAL PROJECTS REPRESENTING 15,138 JOBS Advanced Manufacturing Corporate Operations Music & Entertainment Supply Chain Management Health Care
PIPELINE SECTOR BREAKDOWN Corporate Services Corporate & Regional HQs Back Office, Shared Services, Data Centers Distribution & Trade Storage & Distribution Wholesale Trade Advanced Manufacturing Automotive & Parts Manufacturing Other Manufacturing Opportunities Health Care Management & Information Technology Health Care Management Health Care Information Technology Music & Entertainment Music Production & Publishing Affiliated Sectors 23 Projects 12 Projects 19 Projects 08 Projects 02 Projects The projects above range from 25 to 1000 jobs with real estate requirements of 15K SF to 1M SF. These are both relocations and expansions projects.
POPULATION GROWTH Nashville MSA ranked 9th for population growth in 2015. 2.03% annual growth Austin Orlando 2.95% 2.60% 36,435 new residents Raleigh Houston 2.46% 2.45% 26,062 moved to Nashville Las Vegas San Antonio 2.21% 2.20% 71 people moving per day on average 1,830,345 population 2015 Denver Dallas Nashville Jacksonville 2.12% 2.08% 2.03% 2.00% *Ranking based on U.S. Metros with over 1M in Population. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015.
NASHVILLE M I G RATION
WORKFORCE available and educated 12 four-year colleges and universities in the region 117,000 enrolled students and 17,000 annual graduates with 60% remaining in the region 6 community and technical colleges in the region 131,000+ with graduate or professional degrees
LIVABILITY
LIVABILITY Cost of living 4.8% below the national average Composite Index Grocery Items Housing Utilities Transportation Health Care Misc. Goods and Services Nashville 95.2 95.7 82.1 97.5 98.1 86.6 105.7 Austin 96.0 84.2 90.3 101.5 97.7 103.5 102.2 Atlanta 99.9 103.7 97.4 93.5 105.0 101.4 100.5 Chicago 116.2 116.7 135.7 104.2 114.5 99.1 106.0 Los Angeles 140.3 106.3 213.3 115.6 132.7 109.3 106.1 Boston 144.3 105.0 193.7 151.7 110.0 130.4 129.2 San Francisco 176.4 127.9 319.4 108.2 132.0 118.1 118.3 NYC 227.4 128.2 457.7 130.5 131.3 116.2 148.7 *Source: ACCRA Cost of Living Index 2015.
LIVABILITY quality of place Highest concentration of the music industry in U.S. - a national hub for the creative class Live music every night of the week with world class music venues 124 performance venues and 31 annual festivals and events An arts participation rate nearly five times the national average
LIVABILITY quality of place More than 100 public parks comprising 9,345 acres 80 miles of greenways 2 recreation lakes 56 public and private golf courses One of America s premier steeplechase courses NFL, NHL, MLB (AAA), and NCAA Sports teams
LIVABILITY cultural diversity Cultural diversity 1 in 6 Nashvillians are foreign-born Foreign-born population grew by 203% between 1990 and 2000, almost four times as fast as the national average (57%) The largest Kurdish community in the world outside the Middle East lives in Nashville 140 Nations are represented in Metro Nashville Public Schools
TRENDS & PROJECTIONS
POPULATION GROWTH Nashville MSA Population Projections 2,050,000 2,000,000 1,950,000 1,900,000 1,850,000 1,800,000 1,750,000 1,700,000 1,650,000 Current Population: 2025 Projection: 2,021,907 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Source: EMSI 2015
Population POPULATION GROWTH Over 1 million more residents in the Nashville region by 2040. 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,600,000 3,096,602 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,450,000 1,792,649 1,000,000 750,000 500,000-1965 2000 2014 2035 2040 Source: Nashville MPO
INDUSTRY GROWTH Nashville MSA Projected Industry Growth 2015-2025 Management of Companies and Enterprises 13% Employment Services Accounting, Tax Prep., Bookkeeping, and Payroll 18% 19% Office Administrative Services 29% Management and Technical Consulting Services 38% Business Support Services 44% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% Source: EMSI 2015
Employment EMPLOYMENT GROWTH 65% projected employment growth in the Nashville region by 2040. 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000-2015 2020 2030 2040 Source: Nashville MPO
THEY SAID IT BEST
QUESTIONS?