Annual Defence Report 2015: The Americas

Transcription

1 [Content preview Subscribe to IHS Jane s Defence Weekly for full article] Annual Defence Report 2015: The Americas The US military is expanding its operations in Iraq and Syria while maintaining deployments in Afghanistan, but has solved budgetary squabbles for the near term. Meanwhile, Canada's incoming government promises major defence posture changes and Latin American militaries are slowly modernising. Daniel Wasserbly, Grace Jean and Marina Malenic report Despite the best efforts (and key campaign platform) of President Barack Obama, 2015 was 'more of the same' for US military operations as campaigns continued in Afghanistan and Iraq while expanding in Syria. Obama had made ending the two wars he inherited a major goal for his administration, but both Iraq and Afghanistan remain mired in conflicts that heavily involve the US military, albeit at a far smaller troop commitment than at their height in the 2000s. White House announcements in late 2015 suggest both conflicts could be left for the next US president, who will take office in January The United States plans to maintain about 9,800 troops in Afghanistan through most of 2016 and then drop to around 5,500 in 2017, Obama revealed in October. He had previously wanted to keep around 10,000 US troops in Afghanistan through to the end of 2015 and then re-evaluate force levels in 2016 before seeking to withdraw to just an embassy-level presence by The pace of this new force reduction plan is to be determined by US commanders, with a new presidential administration to determine future US commitments from Meanwhile, the White House has continued to add to, and amend, its efforts to combat Islamic State militants in Iraq and Syria. US trainers have been operating in Iraq since 2014, but Obama had repeatedly said he would not send ground troops into Syria (the US campaign there has been limited to airstrikes and special forces direct-action missions). This changed on 30 October, when the president reversed course and said he would send about 50 special forces personnel to Syria. White House officials said this force's purpose would be to support allied groups there and potentially involve themselves in combat situations. US Army [Continued in full version ] With the late 2014 release of the new Army Operating Concept, the service has a conceptual outline for its force planning and now the prospect of a 'sequestered' Pentagon budget has been removed for two years, so the army is in a relatively good place. Still, officials continue to raise concern about the force's size due to the many tasks it is given. The service has an active-duty end strength of about 490,000 soldiers and is currently shedding troops from a wartime high of about 570,000 down to 450,000 by the end of FY 2018, according to the army's FY 2016 budget plan. As part of this effort, the army is consolidating and reducing its brigade combat teams (BCTs) from a high of 45 to 30 by the end of FY Page 1 of 12

2 M1A2 Abrams main battle tanks and M2A3/M3A3 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles were sent back to Europe as the US Army sought to reassure its European allies in relation to a resurgent Russia. (US Army) Meanwhile, the army's most notable acquisition move this year was the highly anticipated announcement of who would build the DoD's Humvee replacement: the Joint Light Tactical Vehicle (JLTV). On 23 August Oshkosh Defense was announced to have beaten bids from AM General and Lockheed Martin. As expected, however, an award protest from Lockheed Martin followed on 9 September and the army had to quickly issue a stop-work order on the USD6.7 billion initial contract. AM General said it would not protest. For JLTV the US Marine Corps (USMC) plans to buy 5,500 trucks by FY 2022 and the army 49,099 by around 2040, service officials said. The army and the USMC are to buy 16,901 vehicles through the first contract before deciding upon a full-rate production deal in FY Page 2 of 12

3 Oshkosh's L-ATV won the JLTV competition, besting submissions from AM General and Lockheed Martin, although the latter has since protested the award. (IHD/Daniel Wasserbly) Interestingly, it is possible that the original JLTV producer may not build all of those vehicles because the initial contract includes an option for the army to buy a technical data package for the JLTV that would allow it to recompete its production, according to Colonel Shane Fullmer, the army's JLTV project manager. This is only expected to happen if the army finds itself in a difficult position with the manufacturer or if it has the upfront funding to seek future savings. Meanwhile, other US vehicle programmes could also soon be on the horizon. Lieutenant General H R McMaster, director of the Army Capabilities Integration Center (ARCIC), revealed in September that the army "would purchase in the next year or so three battalions' worth of ground mobility vehicles", which he said are meant to allow early-entry forces to land, rapidly move to assault positions, and then dismount - all after closing in from an unpredictable route. The service is to also seek a mobile protected firepower platform "that can deploy quickly into an area, that has a relatively low logistics demand and that has the protection, lethality, and mobility to ensure freedom of action for infantry in close contact with the enemy", Lt Gen McMaster said. [Continued in full version ] Page 3 of 12

4 Unlike the legacy V-22, Bell's new V-280 technology allows engines to remain in place while the aircraft hovers, giving ingressing and egressing troops greater freedom of movement. The army spent much of 2015 preparing to showcase this and other new rotorcraft technology under its JMR-TD, the precursor to the FVL programme. (Bell Helicopter) US Navy Huntington Ingalls Industries moves the US Navy's new-construction aircraft carrier Gerald R Ford on 17 November 2013 to Newport News Shipbuilding's Pier 3, where it is completing outfitting and testing ahead of its handover, planned for (HII) Facing continued budgetary pressure but steadfast support from lawmakers, the US Navy (USN) carried on with its shipbuilding endeavours and operational priorities in Page 4 of 12

5 In its FY 2016 budget submission the USN requested funding to carry out the refuelling and complex overhaul of USS George Washington (CVN 73): a Nimitz-class nuclear-powered aircraft carrier that navy officials had placed on the chopping block in the FY 2015 proposal for financial reasons. The USN also requested the balance of funds to acquire a 12th San Antonio-class amphibious transport dock, which lawmakers had sought, fought for, and won in the appropriations process the previous year. Questions had loomed over the navy's future small surface combatant and leaders offered more clarity on a plan to transition from acquiring the Littoral Combat Ship (LCS) vessels to a new frigate based on a modified LCS design. In FY 2016 the navy will acquire three LCSs, along with two Virginia-class attack submarines, two Arleigh Burke (DDG 51)-class guided missile destroyers - to include the first Flight III Arleigh Burke featuring a new air defence radar - and the lead ship of a new fleet oiler. Arleigh Burke-class Aegis destroyer John Finn, the first of the US Navy's DDG 51 Flight IIA restart programme, is launched at Huntington Ingalls Industries' Ingalls Shipbuilding on 28 March. (HII) Still, the navy's FY 2016 budget was not without controversy; officials unveiled a plan to conduct a phased modernisation on 11 Ticonderoga-class guided missile cruisers. The navy explained it as a way to 'depressurise' the shipbuilding account as the service gears up to acquire the Ohio-class ballistic missile submarine replacement: a 10-boat programme estimated to cost around USD100 billion when it fully commences in FY On the operations side the navy followed through on its commitment to base four of its Arleigh Burke-class destroyers in Rota, Spain, to support the US ballistic missile defence shield in Europe. Page 5 of 12

6 With the arrival of USS Carney (DDG 64) there in September, the United States now has four Aegis-equipped warships forward stationed in the region. The USN also deployed its second LCS to Southeast Asia, this time operating with a hybrid manned/unmanned aviation detachment flying the MH-60R Seahawk maritime multimission helicopter and the MQ-8B Fire Scout vertical take-off unmanned aerial vehicle (VTUAV). Its 16- month mission will conclude in late The US Navy Littoral Combat Ship USS Fort Worth manoeuvres with Arleigh Burke-class destroyers USS Michael Murphy and USS John S McCain, the South Korean destroyer ROKS Eulji Mundeok, and the South Korean frigate ROKS Jeju off the Korean Peninsula on 11 March 2015 during 'Foal Eagle 2015'. (US Navy) [Continued in full version ] Page 6 of 12

7 Virginia-class attack submarine John Warner, shown here during sea trials, was handed over to the US Navy on 19 June. (HII) USAF The US Air Force (USAF) in October selected Northrop Grumman's proposal to build its new fleet of Long-Range Strike Bombers (LRS-Bs) over a Boeing/Lockheed Martin team. Page 7 of 12

8 Northrop Grumman has been chosen to develop and build the USAF's new bomber, but the company declined to release images of the proposed aircraft. Pictured is the company's 1980s-era B-2 Spirit stealth bomber, which the LRS-B will initially complement and eventually replace. (USAF) Officials said the new bomber is crucial to maintaining the US nuclear deterrent due to the advanced age of its existing fleets and because advanced anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) technology is proliferating. Northrop Grumman received a two-part LRS-B deal: a contract for the engineering and manufacturing development (EMD) phase and options for the first five production lots, comprising 21 aircraft out of the total fleet of 100, under a fixed-price contract with incentives for cost. Pentagon numbers indicate that developing and buying the aircraft will cost about USD79.94 billion (in 2016 dollars): a total IHS Jane's arrived at using the service's expected average unit procurement cost of USD564 million for 100 aircraft plus USD23.54 billion in expected development costs, without factoring in life-cycle sustainment costs or future upgrades. The figure also excludes a variety of secretive complementary systems for LRS-B meant to update the air force's aerial nuclear strike capabilities. The other two USAF top-priority programmes - the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) and the Boeing KC-46A Pegasus aerial refuelling tanker - also fared well in After several highly publicised setbacks in 2014, Boeing in September executed the first flight of a fully provisioned Boeing KC-46A out of Paine Field, Washington, while Lockheed Martin ended the year negotiating a low-rate initial production (LRIP) Lot 9 contract to build 55 F-35s for the United States and international customers. The KC-46A first flight was originally scheduled to take place at the beginning of the year, but was delayed after problems with wiring bundles were discovered in the test aircraft. Boeing's KC-46A tanker takes off on its first flight on 25 September. (Boeing) [Continued in full version ] Page 8 of 12

9 An F-35A Lightning II completed the first airborne gunfire bursts from its internal GAU-22/A 25 mm Gatling gun during a 30 October test flight out of Edwards Air Force Base, California. (Chad Bellay, Edwards F-35 Integrated Test Force) Canada Canada appears poised for some notable changes in its defence realm after the Liberal Party won a parliamentary majority in the country's federal elections on 19 October after 10 years of Stephen Harper's Conservative Party rule. Prime Minister-designate Justin Trudeau said the day after his party's surprising win that he had told Obama that Canada would end its combat role in the US-led coalition battling Islamic State militants in Iraq and Syria. "[Obama] understands the commitments I've made around ending the combat mission," Trudeau said on 20 October. He did not say specifically when this would end or what element of Canada's involvement would end, but did say Canada would continue engaging in the coalition in "a responsible way". Harper's government in 2014 deployed advisors and an aviation task force to Iraq, and in April expanded air operations over Syria. Canada has "approximately 69 members of the Canadian Armed Forces [CAF]" working with US military personnel in Iraq in an advisory and assistance role "by providing strategic and tactical advice to Iraqi Security Forces", according to the Canadian Department of National Defence. The CAF have also deployed about 600 personnel and an air task force to Iraq comprising six Boeing F/A-18C (CF-18/CF-188) Hornet fighters, two Lockheed Martin P-3 (CP-140M) Aurora surveillance aircraft, one Airbus A310 (CC-150T) Polaris aerial refuelling tanker, one Boeing C-17 (CC-177) Globemaster III airlifter, and one Lockheed Martin C-130J (CC-130J) Hercules transport aircraft. Page 9 of 12

10 Regarding acquisitions, officials suggested that Trudeau's Liberal Party would soon seek to rewrite requirements for replacing the Royal Canadian Air Force's ageing Boeing CF-18 (F/A-18A/B) Hornet fighters, specifically to extricate the country from the international F-35 JSF programme that Trudeau has railed against. This is unlikely to affect the aircraft's development because Ottawa has already paid for that, but lower JSF production numbers will drive up unit costs, according to USAF officials. [Continued in full version ] An artist's concept illustration of Canada's Arctic/Offshore Patrol Ship for the Royal Canadian Navy. (Canadian Department of National Defence) Latin America In 2015 Latin America remained relatively free of inter-state hostilities and one of its longest simmering insurgencies appears to have ended as the Colombian government and FARC (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia) rebels reached an agreement on 23 September that could end their bloody, decades-long conflict. Colombian president Juan Manuel Santos and FARC leader Rodrigo Londoño, also known as Timochenko, announced an agreement had been reached on 'transitional justice': the most difficult part of six-point negotiations ongoing since October Now comes a particularly difficult period of social reintegration and administration of that transitional justice. Still, the deal will provide relief for the highly experienced Colombian military, which plans to next focus on local criminal networks and international engagements such as peacekeeping. Page 10 of 12

11 ARC 7 de Agusto, the second of Colombia's three OPV-80s (the third of which is now under construction at COTECMAR's facility in Cartagena), deployed to support the European Union Naval Force's (EUNAVFOR's) Operation 'Atalanta' off the coast of Somalia in (IHS/Daniel Wasserbly) Similarly, the Mexican Navy worked to sharpen its skills with its first amphibious landing exercise alongside US, Japanese, and New Zealand forces in early September. It marked the first time the Mexican Navy had fully participated in this type of multinational training exercise and signals an effort to shift Mexico's foreign policy towards participating in international military operations. Although it has been hampered by serious economic issues, Brazil has continued to advance military modernisation efforts, albeit at a slower pace. The Brazilian Navy is still considering buying two aircraft carriers, displacing about 50,000 tons each, as part of its PRONAE (Programa de Obtenção de Navios Aródromos) programme, and hopes to soon procure FS Siroco (L 9012): a dock landing platform (LPD) from the French Navy. This ship would considerably increase the service's ability to conduct a variety of missions, including troop and material transport and disaster relief. Page 11 of 12

12 Brazil is considering buying the ex-french Navy LPD Siroco, pictured here in Toulon, after Portugal dropped interest in July. (Victor Barreira) Moreover, Saab announced in September that its October 2014 contract with the Brazilian government for 36 Gripen NG multirole combat aircraft had gone into effect. Deliveries of the aircraft, 28 single-seaters and eight twin-seaters to fulfil Brazil's F-X2 requirement, will run from 2019 to [Continued in full version ] Page 12 of 12