Overview. Section 1 Trends in the International Community. Overview

Transcription

1 Part I Security Environment Surrounding Japan Part I Security Environment Surrounding Japan Section 1 Trends in the International Community The security environment surrounding Japan has become increasingly severe, with various challenges and destabilizing factors becoming more tangible and acute. Even after the end of the Cold War, interstate conflicts remain in the periphery of Japan, and as such, this region has not witnessed major changes in the security environment as were observed in Europe. Opaque and uncertain factors such as territorial disputes and reunification issues remain. There has been also a tendency towards an increase in and prolongation of so-called gray-zone situations, that is, neither pure peacetime nor contingencies over territory, sovereignty, and maritime economic interests 1. In addition, there has been a noticeable trend among neighboring countries to modernize and reinforce their military capabilities and to intensify their military activities. In this regard, security challenges and destabilizing factors in the Asia-Pacific region including the area surrounding Japan are becoming more serious. In a global security environment, interdependence among countries has expanded and deepened with globalization and rapid advances in technological innovations. At the same time, there is a growing risk that unrest or a security problem in a single country or region could immediately develop into a challenge or destabilizing factor for the entire international community. Recently, the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) 2 has gained strength in Iraq and Syria. As illustrated by these developments, there has been a trend in the activities of international terrorist organizations gaining momentum and expanding once again. Furthermore, in Ukraine, Russia has engaged in so-called hybrid warfare 3 that is difficult to identify definitively as an armed attack by a country, and has attempted to change the status quo by force or coercion. While the international community has strongly condemned and imposed sanctions against Russia, the pre-conflict situation has still not been restored, leaving challenges for the international response. In addition, the recent spate of cyber attacks has become more sophisticated and complex by the day, with government involvement suggested in various attacks. In this context, there are increasing risks to the stable use of cyberspace. Under these circumstances, the United States, while faced with a difficult financial situation, has made clear that it would continue to pursue the policy of focusing its strategies, including the National Security Strategy, more towards the Asia-Pacific region, and strengthening its relations with allies in the region (rebalance to the Asia-Pacific region). In addition, the United States has made a clear commitment to continue playing a leading role in tackling global security challenges, based on the recognition that it is the only country capable of leading the international community. Furthermore, with expanding and deepening interdependence, major countries have a growing shared interest in building a more stable international security environment. For example, they have taken steps to avoid and prevent unforeseen consequences in the maritime domain, implemented coalition-led military activities against ISIL as part of the War on terror, and engaged in diplomatic efforts at the summit level to prevent the further escalation of regional conflicts. Increasingly, countries with a shared interest in resolving issues are working together to take proactive responses to achieve regional and global stability. The multi-polarization of the world continues as a result of shifts in the balance of power due to the economic development and extension of political influence of 1 So-called gray-zone situations concisely describe a broad range of situations, that is, neither pure peacetime nor contingencies. For example, they could involve the following circumstances: 1) Conflicting assertions between states, etc., over territory, sovereignty, economic interests including maritime interests, and other forms of rights and interests; 2) Not relying only on diplomatic negotiation among parties for a party to make its country s assertions or demands, or to have the other party accept said assertions or demands; and 3) Showing physical presence frequently, or attempting or making changes to the status quo in an area related to the dispute by using armed organizations or other means to the extent that it does not constitute armed attack, in order to appeal a party s assertion or demand or to force acceptance of it. 2 ISIL stands for Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant. ISIL has become the common term in the documentation of the international community, including United Nations Security Council resolutions. 3 While various explanations have been offered for so-called hybrid warfare, in this white paper, the term is used to mean, aggression conducted by methods that are diffi cult to identify defi nitively as armed attack based on their outward appearance, involving a combination of non-military means, such as sabotage and information manipulation, and military means which are utilized covertly. With regard to the recent situation in Ukraine, the United States and European nations note that there was clear and direct Russian military intervention. Russia, on the other hand, has consistently denied military involvement. 001 DEFENSE OF JAPAN 2015

2 Asia Pacific Security Environment Section 2 countries such as China, India and Russia, and the relative change of influence of the United States. Increases in demand for natural resources, energy, and food stemming from economic growth in emerging countries and a larger middle class are expected to further intensify the international competition for these resources. Against this backdrop, changes in or denial of the existing regional and international order, or assertions and activities to secure economic interests could become more tangible and acute. This in turn could lead to increases in gray-zone situations and regional conflicts in the future. Additionally, the rapid spread of the Internet and ICT networks, including social media one of the key factors of globalization have given non-state actors a much greater ability to disseminate their opinions and assertions as well as mobilize supporters, and by extension, have significantly increased their influence on countries and the international community. For example, criticism of a nation sent out by an individual, or extremism disseminated by an international terrorist organization, have tended to propagate and spread explosively or be transmitted across the world by ICT networks. Controlling these activities have become increasingly challenging even for countries like authoritarian nations with strong control over their people, as well as for the international community that strives to contain the operations of international terrorist organizations. As a result, countries have been forced to pay greater considerations to public opinion on domestic governance and management of state affairs. At the same time, the international community is faced with more complex issues which need to be resolved and which are increasingly difficult to address. In addition, it is believed that national security decisionmaking is more complex than ever before, as some nations have important economic relationships despite differences in fundamental values and strategic interests, as seen in the case of Europe and Russia with regard to the Ukraine issue in The security challenges and destabilizing factors in the international community which has these characteristics are complex, diverse, and wide-ranging, and it is becoming ever more difficult for a single country to deal with them on its own. In this context, it is increasingly important for countries which share interests in regional and global stability to cooperate and actively respond to security challenges. Cross-cutting government efforts are also critical to overcome these challenges. Section 2 Asia Pacific Security Environment In the Asia-Pacific region, alongside the various changes that have taken place with the increase in power of China and other nations, countries in the region have made efforts to enhance and strengthen specific and practical intra-regional coordination and collaboration with a particular focus on non-traditional security fields such as humanitarian assistance and disaster relief. In addition, defense authorities in the region have made progress on efforts to avoid and prevent unforeseen consequences in the maritime domain. On the other hand, this region abounds in political, economic, ethnic, and religious diversity, and confrontational relations between countries/regions remain even after the end of the Cold War. In addition, their views on security and threats are different, and therefore, the kinds of major changes in the security environment seen in Europe after the end of the Cold War have yet to emerge, and long-standing issues of territorial rights and reunification continue to remain in the region. In the Korean Peninsula, the Korean people have been divided for more than half a century, and the faceoff continues between the military forces of the Republic of Korea (ROK) and North Korea. There are issues concerning Taiwan and the South China Sea. Furthermore, with regard to Japan, territorial disputes over the Northern Territories and Takeshima, both of which are inherent parts of the territory of Japan, remain unresolved. On top of this, recent years have seen a continued tendency towards the prolongation of gray-zone situations, raising concerns that they may develop into more serious situations in the absence of a clear path towards the resolution of the situations. In North Korea, following the change of regime that made First Chairman of the National Defense Commission (NDC) Kim Jong-un the leader of the country, many personnel reshuffles have taken place, primarily involving key posts of the party, military, and cabinet. In this way, it is deemed that measures continue to be taken to tighten the regime s grip and to strengthen the regime to make NDC First Chairman Kim Jong-un the sole leader. North Korea is military-focused and deploys a massive military force. It is also proceeding with the development, deployment, transfer, and proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMDs), including nuclear weapons, and ballistic missiles, and it maintains a large-scale special operations force. Through these activities, North Korea continues to maintain and strengthen asymmetrical military capabilities 4. In particular, North Korea s ballistic missile development has presumably entered a new stage as a result of technological improvements through a series of missile launches. In addition, recently, North Korea has engaged in 4 Asymmetrical military capabilities, in this context, refer to means of attack different from those of an opponent with superior conventional military capabilities. Such measures are exploited to compensate for disadvantages in conventional weapons and troops. Examples include WMD, ballistic missiles, terrorism, and cyber-attacks. Defense of Japan 002

3 Part I Security Environment Surrounding Japan not only research and development of ballistic missiles, but has also intensified activities to increase their operational capabilities, including surprise attack. As for nuclear weapon development, the Six-Party Talks, which aim at achieving the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, have been suspended since late North Korea has conducted nuclear tests in defiance of calls of restraint from the international community, so the possibility cannot be ruled out that it has successfully miniaturized nuclear weapons for warheads and enabled them to be equipped on ballistic missiles. With the passage of time, it is considered that there is a growing risk that North Korea would deploy ballistic missiles mounted with a nuclear warhead that have ranges covering Japan. Moreover, there is a possibility that North Korea is developing nuclear weapons using highlyenriched uranium. North Korea has repeated provocative rhetoric and behavior against related countries including Japan, especially in 2013, emphasizing that Japan is within the range of its missiles, referring to specific Japanese cities. Such North Korean military trends constitute a serious destabilizing factor to the security not only of Japan but of the entire region and the international community. Therefore, Japan needs to pay utmost attention to such activities. North Korea s abduction of Japanese nationals, a grave issue concerning the sovereignty of Japan and the lives and security of the Japanese people, is yet to be resolved. A solution will require concrete actions by North Korea. Today, China has significant influence in the international community. Accordingly, China is strongly expected to recognize its responsibility in the international community, accept and comply with international norms, and play an active in a more cooperative manner in regional and global issues. In the meantime, China has been continuously increasing its defense budget at a high level and has been rapidly reinforcing its military in a wide range of areas. As part of such effort, China is believed to be making efforts to strengthen its asymmetrical military capabilities to prevent military activity by other countries in the region by denying access and deployment of foreign militaries to its surrounding areas (so-called Anti- Access/Area-Denial [ A2/AD ] capabilities 5, as well as to build its structure for joint operations and enhance combat-oriented military trainings. China has not clearly stated the purposes and goals of the military buildup, and transparency concerning its decision making process on military and security matters is not fully achieved. In addition, China is rapidly expanding and intensifying its activities in the maritime and aerial domains in the region including in the East China Sea and South China Sea. In particular, China has continued to take assertive actions with regard to issues of conflicts of interest in the maritime domain, as exemplified by its attempts to change the status quo by coercion, and has signaled its position to realize its unilateral assertions without making any compromises. As for the seas and airspace around Japan, China has intruded into Japanese territorial waters frequently by its government ships, and has engaged in dangerous activities that could cause unforeseen consequences, such as its vessel s direction of fire control radar at a JMSDF destroyer, the flight of fighters abnormally close to JSDF aircraft, and its announcement of establishing the East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) based on its own assertion thereby infringing the freedom of overflight over the high seas. In the South China Sea, China has also intensified friction with countries in the surrounding area by proceeding rapidly with land reclamation projects in multiple reefs, among other activities, based on China s unilateral assertion of sovereignty. In addition, a Chinese fighter is alleged to have flown abnormally close to and conducted an intercept of a U.S. Forces aircraft. As Japan has great concern about these Chinese activities, it will need to pay utmost attention to them, as these activities also raise concerns over regional and global security. This is why China is asked to further increase transparency regarding its military and why further strengthening of mutual understanding and trust by promoting dialogue and exchanges with China is an important issue. Against this backdrop, recently, China has begun to actively respond to the calls to take measures to avoid and prevent unforeseen consequences in the maritime domain. It is strongly hoped that progress on these efforts supplements the existing order based on international law and leads to enhancing China s compliance with international norms. Russia, while perceiving the buildup of an affluent nation as its task for the present, attaches importance to becoming an influential power based on the deployment of its new economic, cultural, and military might. Against the backdrop of its economic development, Russia has promoted the strengthening of the readiness of its Armed Forces and the development and induction of new equipment, while continuing to give priority to its nuclear force. Recently, a confrontational relationship has developed between Russia and such countries as the United States and European nations over Ukraine which Russia deems is part of its sphere of influence. Under these circumstances, Russia faces a severe economic situation due to falling crude oil prices, a plunging ruble, and the impacts of EU and U.S. economic sanctions, among other factors. On the other hand, even as expenditure cuts are made in a wide range of areas, Russia has continued to increase defense spending and modernize its Armed Forces. Recently, Russia has intensified its military activities not only in the Asia-Pacific region, but also in the Arctic, Europe, and the periphery 5 Anti-Access (A2) is a concept introduced by the United States and refers to capabilities, usually long-range, designed to prevent an opposing force from entering an operational area. Area-Denial (AD) refers to capabilities, usually of shorter range, designed to limit an opposing force s freedom of action within the operational area. Weapons used for A2/AD include ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, anti-satellite weapons, air-defense systems, submarines, and mines. 003 DEFENSE OF JAPAN 2015

4 Asia Pacific Security Environment Section 2 of mainland United States, and has been expanding the area of activities. In the Far East, the Russian Armed Forces has conducted large-scale exercises. Furthermore, in the territory of Ukraine, Russia has engaged in hybrid warfare that is difficult to identify definitively as an armed attack by a country, and has attempted to change the status quo by force or coercion. This is recognized as a global issue that could affect the entire international community, including Asia. As seen above, in the Asia-Pacific region, where the security environment has increasingly grown severe, the presence of the U.S. Forces remains extremely important in order to achieve regional stability. Accordingly, Japan and other countries, such as Australia and the ROK, have established bilateral alliances and partnerships with the United States, and allow the stationing and deployment of U.S. Forces in their territories. In addition, the U.S. Forces have recently taken measures to further strengthen their presence. See Fig. I (Major Military Forces in the Asia-Pacific Region (Approximate Strength)) Moreover, opportunities for bilateral defense exchanges between countries in the region have increased in recent years. Multilateral security dialogues, including the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), the ASEAN Defense Ministers Meeting-Plus (ADMM-Plus), conferences hosted by non-governmental institutions with the participation of relevant defense ministers, and bilateral and multilateral joint exercises are held. Promoting and developing such multi-layered approaches among countries is also important to ensure stability in the region. Fig. I Major Military Forces in the Asia-Pacifi c Region (Approximate Strength) Russian Far East 80,000 troops (12) 250 vessels - 600,000 tons 350 aircraft China North Korea 1,020,000 troops (27) 780 vessels - 103,000 tons 560 aircraft 1,600,000 troops (152) 10,000 marines ROK 870 vessels - 1,470,000 tons 2,620 aircraft 520,000 troops (56) 27,000 marines (3) 210 vessels - 197,000 tons 620 aircraft U.S. Forces in the ROK 19,000 troops (5) 60 aircraft Japan 140,000 troops (15) 137 vessels - 467,000 tons 410 aircraft U.S. Forces in Japan Taiwan 200,000 troops (22) 15,000 marines 410 vessels - 201,000 tons 500 aircraft 18,000 troops (1) 130 aircraft U.S. 7th Fleet 20 vessels - 347,000 tons 50 (carrier-based) aircraft The United States Geological Survey: GTOPO30; and the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration: ETOPO1 Notes: 1. Source: The Military Balance 2015, documents published by the U.S. Department of Defense, etc. 2. Figures for Japan indicate the strength of each JSDF as of the end of 2013; the number of combat aircraft is the sum of JASDF aircraft (excluding transport aircraft) and JMSDF aircraft (fixed-wing aircraft only). 3. Figures for the U.S. ground forces in Japan and the ROK are those of the Army and Marine Corps personnel combined. 4. Combat aircraft include Navy and Marine aircraft. 5. Figures in parentheses show the total number of central units, such as divisions and brigades. That of North Korea shows only divisions. That of Taiwan includes military police as well. 6. The number of U.S. 7th Fleet vessels and aircraft indicates those which are forward-deployed in Japan and Guam. 7. Figures of combat aircraft of the U.S. Forces, Japan and the U.S. 7th Fleet include only fighters. Legend Ground forces (200,000 troops) Naval vessels (200,000 tons) Combat aircraft (500 aircraft) Defense of Japan 004

5 Part I Security Environment Surrounding Japan Section 3 Global Security Issues A range of regional conflicts still exists across the globe, which have complex and diverse backgrounds and forms. Especially in the Middle East and Africa, against the backdrop of the turmoil, civil war, and regional conflict that followed the Arab Spring, areas which lack national governance have expanded. In many cases, international terrorist organizations made inroads in these areas, expanded their organizations, and intensified their activities. These cases have made regional conflicts more complex, making it increasingly challenging for nations and regional organizations with conflicts in their regions to address and resolve them, as well as for the international community. On the other hand, climate change and competition between sovereign nations to secure resources and energy could become more tangible and cause regional disputes, and in such ways, become a new factor that affects the global security environment. Furthermore, even as the various functions of military forces are utilized more to conduct prompt rescue activities in response to largescale natural disasters and outbreaks of infectious diseases, the presence of countries with weak governance has made it more difficult to deal with risks such as the explosive outbreak and spread of infectious diseases. The proliferation of WMDs, such as nuclear, biological, and chemical (NBC) weapons, and ballistic missiles that serve as the means of delivery of WMD is still viewed as a significant threat to the international community. In particular, there are continuing concerns about the acquisition and use of WMDs by non-state actors, such as international terrorist organizations. In this regard, under the leadership of the Nuclear Security Summit, the international community continues to pursue efforts to counter terrorism activities that utilize nuclear materials and other radioactive substances. Meanwhile, with regard to Iran s nuclear program, the United States and the European Union (EU) have strengthened sanctions against Iran, while engaging in discussions with Iran. They agreed on the Joint Plan of Action in 2013 aimed at a comprehensive resolution of the nuclear issue, and continue to hold negotiations to reach a final comprehensive agreement. In addition, initiatives which focus on nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament are under way, such as the new Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) entering into force between the United States and Russia in There has been a growing tendency for the threat of international terrorism to spread rapidly. The diversification of actors that carry out acts of terrorism, coupled with the increasing complexity of regional conflicts, have made the prevention of terrorism even more challenging. As the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) demonstrates, terrorist organizations have emerged which, unlike conventional terrorist organizations, are well funded and have powerful and sophisticated military capabilities. By making effective use of the Internet and social media for the organizations propaganda purposes, they communicate their extremism and gain multiple followers and new members around the world. In addition, the United States, European nations, and elsewhere face concerns over the threat of so-called home-grown and lone-wolf terrorism namely, acts of terrorism perpetrated in the home country singlehandedly by those who experienced combat in a conflict area and returned to their home country, or those who have become influenced by extremism, among others. This has increased the risk of terrorism occurring in developed countries. In view of the terrorist incident regarding the murder of Japanese which took place in Syria in early 2015, it cannot be said that Japan is immune from the threat of international terrorism. Securing the stable use of global commons such as sea, air, outer space, and cyberspace is becoming a significant security challenge for the international community. The growing attention paid in the field of international security to outer space and cyberspace, which cannot be perceived from a conventional geographical perspective, stems from the increasing dependence of social infrastructure and military activities on outer space and cyberspace for various reasons such as further developments in military and science technology and the recent dramatic advances in information and communications technology (ICT). On the other hand, in recent years, concrete initiatives aimed at strengthening an entire country s response capabilities that include private companies have been under way in various countries, in order to deal with cyber attacks on a range of government and military information and communication networks and key infrastructure, some of which allegedly have the involvement of government agencies. There is also an effort in the international community to establish a code of conduct in cyberspace. With regard to the maritime domain, which has been regarded as a fundamental means for supporting international trade, piracy acts have taken place in various parts of the world, and there have been cases where countries unilaterally assert their rights and take action based on their own assertion that is inconsistent with the existing international maritime law and order, thereby unduly infringing the freedom of navigation on and flight over the high seas. In response to these situations, the international community has been taking various measures such as continuing to dispatch vessels and other assets to conduct anti-piracy operations in relevant waters including off the coast of Somalia and in the Gulf of Aden, sharing the view on the importance of international norms including freedom of navigation, and initiatives designed to avoid and prevent unforeseen consequences in the maritime domain. As seen above, the international community today faces diverse, complex, and multilayered security challenges and destabilizing factors. These challenges could even occur 005 DEFENSE OF JAPAN 2015

6 Global Security Issues Section 3 simultaneously or compound one another. In addition to deterrence and handling of armed conflicts, the roles of military forces in responding to these challenges are becoming so diverse that they include a broad spectrum of activities from conflict prevention to reconstruction assistance. Moreover, as opportunities for military forces to play such an important role increase, comprehensive responses are required that combine military capacity with other capacities such as diplomacy, law enforcement and justice, intelligence, and the economy. Developments in science and technology, as represented by the great leaps forward in ICT in recent years, have also had spillover effects on the military. The United States and other developed countries put emphasis on research and development of new technologies including those for precision guidance, unmanned vehicles, and stealth capability, while actively seeking international joint development and production to address rising development and production costs and the deterioration of the national fiscal situation. On the other hand, states and non-state actors without cutting-edge technology are anticipated to develop and acquire WMDs and asymmetrical means of attack such as cyber attacks, while acquiring the technologies of developed countries in an illicit manner. How these trends in military science and technology will unfold is expected to have significant effects on military strategies and military balance in the future. Defense of Japan 006