Colonial School District Enrollment Projections Update. Prepared by the Montgomery County Planning Commission

Transcription

1 Colonial School District Enrollment Projections Update Prepared by the Montgomery County Planning Commission

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3 Colonial School District Enrollment Projections Update Prepared By The Montgomery County Planning Commission March 1, 2017 This report is an update to the original Enrollment Study prepared in February, It represents a supplement to the original study, but incorporates new data where available and recalibrates the projecon model to best reflect the most recent trends and expected demographic acvity affecng future enrollments.

4 School Board Susan Moore, President Beth Suchsland, Vice President Bernie Brady Mel Brodsky Leslie Finegold Kathleen Oxberry Cathy Peduzzi Felix Raimondo Alan Tabachnick Superintendent Dr. MaryEllen Gorodetzer

5 Table of Contents Introduction...1 Part 1. School District Characteristics Population...3 Age Cohorts...4 Birth Patterns...5 Females of Child Bearing Age...6 Enrollment History...7 Private School Enrollment...9 Part 2. Housing Activity Impacts of Housing on Enrollment Housing Units Built Housing Units Proposed Housing Sales Part 3. District Enrollment Projections Cohort Progression Model and Progression Rates Projection Scenarios Projection Results Part 4. Building Profiles Summary... 32

6 Colonial School District Enrollment Projecons, Update Introducon The Colonial School District has grown each of the last three years aer a period of more stable enrollment. Other school districts in this part of the county have also been experiencing recent growth as new construcon and increased market desires for people to live near established infrastructure and employment centers drive up the populaon in mature suburbs. In February of 2016, the Montgomery County Planning Commission completed an enrollment projecons study that concluded with a strong forecast for future growth over the next ten years. The recommended scenario demonstrated that the District should be expected to grow by 1,023 students through the 2025 school year. MCPC has now prepared a complete update ulizing the most recent enrollment data ( , October 1) and updated data for all research factors. We have also learned from our earlier observaons, combined with the passage of an addional enrollment class, and have recalibrated the model to reflect our most expected outcome. Please note that this document corresponds with the original study in terms of its organizaon and content, but more detailed informaon regarding the methodology and background to the data can be found in the original 2016 study. 1

7 PART 1 SCHOOL DISTRICT CHARACTERISTICS

8 Colonial School District Enrollment Projecons, Update 1A. School District Characteriscs Populaon FIGURE 1: Population of Colonial School District, ,000 44,000 42,000 40,000 38,000 36,000 34, (forecasted) Source: U.S. Census Bureau, except 2020 Forecasts (DVRPC and MCPC) Populaon in the Colonial SD grew from 1990 to 2010 at a consistent pace of around 3.5% each decade. Generally, new construcon and a stabilizaon in average household size has allowed for the growth. The forecast for 2020 expects the rate of growth to more than double to 8.6% from New mulfamily and townhome development are pushing the expected higher percentage rate of growth. Early esmates support this predicon with more people added from 2010 to 2015 (1,565) compared to the enre decade from 2000 to 2010 (1,371). However, total populaon does not necessarily correlate with school-age populaon and public enrollment. FIGURE 2: Population Totals, (Forecasted) Total Change Percent Total Change Percent Total Change Percent Total Change Percent Colonial SD 38,885-1, % 40,336 1, % 41,707 1, % 45,300 3, % Montgomery County 678,111 34, % 748,987 70, % 799,874 50, % 840,934 41, % Source: U.S. Census Bureau, except 2020 Forecasts (DVRPC and MCPC) 3

9 Colonial School District Enrollment Projecons, Update 1B. School District Characteriscs Age Cohorts FIGURE 3: Age Cohorts, Colonial School District, Age Cohort Total Change Total Change Total Change 0-4 2, , , ,708-2,136 6, , ,293-1,857 2, , , , ,916 1, ,826 1,361 6, ,379-1, ,141-1,274 5,672 1,531 6, , , ,255 1, ,018 1,113 3, , and over 2, , , PRE-SCHOOL AGES SCHOOL AGES HIGHEST FERTILITY AGES Source: U.S. Census Bureau The school-age populaon (ages 5-17 when using the Census) declined from 2000 to 2010, while public school enrollment experienced slight growth (approximately 100) during that me period. The largest adult cohort in 2010 was the year old range. This represents the popularity of the district to young professionals with the burgeoning Millennial generaon coming up behind it. This cohort also has the highest ferlity rates and represents the group most likely to give birth. The and year olds, collecvely represent the baby boom generaon. Parents from this group may sll be raising school-age children or they are empty nesters. Some may consider moving or downsizing with this change, which can open up more opportunity for younger families to move into the district. 4

10 Colonial School District Enrollment Projecons, Update 1C. School District Characteriscs Birth Paerns FIGURE 4: Number of Live Births in Colonial SD by School Calendar Year (Sept.-Aug.) Source: Pennsylvania Department of Health FIGURE 6: Four Year Averages of Live Births in Colonial SD FIGURE 5: Number of Live Births in Colonial SD by School Calendar Year (Sept.-Aug.) School Year Colonial SD FIGURE 7: Montgomery County Live Births, Annually 9,800 9,600 9,400 9,200 9,000 8,800 8,600 8,400 8, Source: Pennsylvania Department of Health Birth acvity has increased during the last five years in the Colonial SD, contrary to the paern of declining births in most districts and the county as a whole (Fig. 7). The latest birth figures reflect connued consistency with 520 births registered on par with the average over the last five years. All district birth data has been calculated to match the school calendar year (Sept. Aug.) so that future students are beer correlated with births that directly affect each class size. The births in a given school calendar years are related to the kindergarten class six years further into the future. For example, the births are potenal kindergarten students in the school year. 5

11 Colonial School District Enrollment Projecons, Update 1D. School District Characteriscs Females of Child Bearing Age FIGURE 8: Females of Child-Bearing Age in Colonial SD, 2000 and 2010 Age Cohort 2000 Females 2010 Females ,037 1, , ,355 1, ,535 1, ,637 1, ,756 1,418 Source: U.S. Census Bureau * ACS 5 year average estimates * Females 1,080 1,015 1,791 1,834 1,373 1,418 Specific data for female age cohorts in the Colonial SD again shows an increase in the most ferle age groupings as of This supports the increase in birth figures for the district, although it is only a snapshot. ACS esmates since 2010 show connued increases in the and year old cohorts, but a slight decline in the younger cohorts. Countywide projecons from DVRPC do indicate that the age cohort is on the rise and will connue to increase through This could potenally increase births in the Colonial SD, but its current high level of birth acvity may more likely be sustained. FIGURE 9: Females Age in Montgomery County with Projections 55,000 50,000 45,000 40, Source: DVRPC 6

12 Colonial School District Enrollment Projecons, Update 1E. School District Characteriscs Enrollment History FIGURE 10: School District Enrollment by Grade Divisions, The last ten years of enrollment in the Colonial SD reflect a fairly stable period that has started to grow incrementally over the last three years. 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, K Recent growth is most pronounced at the younger elementary school level (grades K-3). Middle school grades have cycled up and down while the high school grades have leveled off aer declining earlier in the decade. This paern of larger elementary grades and smaller upper grades is a recipe for future enrollment growth as the growth in elementary schools will eventually be felt in higher grades as the children age Source: Colonial School District (enrollment as of October 1 each year) FIGURE 11: District Enrollment by Division, The districtwide projecons from MCPC s original study compare very favorably aer one year with a difference of only 4 students. However, comparisons between the school levels show that the youngest grades were underesmated while being counterbalanced by the oldest grades being overesmated. Figure 12 breaks it down by grade. Year Total K ,713 Number Change from Previous Year Percent Change from Previous Year , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % Projected* 4,867 Grade K-3 Grade 4-5 Grade 6-8 Grade , ,085 1,581 1, ,060 1,618 1, ,026 1,579 1, ,025 1,571 1, ,055 1,562 1, ,074 1,506 1, ,099 1,463 1, ,098 1,475 1, ,084 1,468 1, ,059 1,479 1, ,062 1,504 * Projections are from Option 2 of MCPC s original study (February, 2016). 7

13 Colonial School District Enrollment Projecons, Update 1E. School District Characteriscs Enrollment History Connued FIGURE 12: School District Enrollment by Grade, Year K Projected* Source: Lower Merion School District (enrollment as of the 10th day of each school year) * Projections are from Option 2 of MCPC s original study (February, 2016). 8

14 Colonial School District Enrollment Projecons, Update 1F. School District Characteriscs Alternave School Enrollments FIGURE 13: Private School Enrollment According to U.S. Census Bureau Year Private School Students , * 1, * 1,248 Percent in Private School 30% 28% 21% * 5 Year Estimates from the ACS are an average of 5 years worth of sampling data FIGURE 14: Private School Enrollment According to Colonial SD Bus Records* School Year Private School Students , Source: Colonial School District Bus Records * Only recognizes private school students that opt for Colonial SD bus transportation. Dataset Census 2000, Summary File 3 ACS, 5 Year Esmates, ACS, 5 Year Esmates, The general trend in the county is that private school enrollment has been declining over the last decade, parcularly since the Recession, but other factors have also been in play. The U.S. Census Bureau suggests that private school aendance was steady from 2000 to 2010 but declining in terms of the percentage of all students. By 2015, a more dramac decline in private school students had occurred. The District s transportaon data shows more recent totals with some increase over the last two years aer a sharp decline. Neither data source is perfect. The District data only accounts for those students using the CSD busses and the ACS Census data is based on sample data while covering a broad period. The extent of the difference between and Census data is quesonable given the margin of error and associated census data, but a decline is clear. Other alternaves, homeschool and charter school opons, have a minimal impact on public school enrollment. There was a bump in Charter School aendees, although it sll remains at a similar level from the last 7 years. FIGURE 15: Other Alternative Schooling Options School Year Homeschool (Cyber) Charter School Source: Colonial School District. 9

15 PART 2 HOUSING ACTIVITY

16 Colonial School District Enrollment Projecons, Update 2A. Housing Acvity Impacts of Housing School Age Children by Type Figure 16 shows the results of a countywide study on the characteriscs of households based on housing types. The numbers indicate the average number of school-age children based on single family detached, aached (townhomes and twins), and mulfamily (apartment or condo stacked units) Detached homes typically contain the most children per unit, while mulfamily units contain far fewer children than many people expect. New detached units are more likely to have greater numbers of children than exisng units, but the opposite is true for aached and mulfamily homes. The figures for just the Colonial SD are consistent with countywide exisng homes, although detached homes have fewer children than the county s rate, while aached homes are slightly greater. FIGURE 16: Average Number of School Aged Children by Housing Unit Type School Age Children per Household in Single Family Detached Single Family Aached Mulfamily Exisng Units School Age Children per Household in New Units School Age Children per Household in Montgomery County Single Family Detached Single Family Aached Mulfamily Exisng Units * School Age Children per Household in Colonial School District New Units NA * * Multifamily factors for Colonial School District are based on inventory of data compiled in Source: Montgomery County Planning Commission The study does not look at every home, only census blocks that have a single housing type are able to be characterized. The factors for Mulfamily housing in the Colonial SD are based on an actual inventory as presented on the following page. CSD exceeds the county average for older mulfamily housing, but its newer mulfamily stock has a very low rate of school age children per unit. Some of these factors are used to predict the impact of future developments, but customized factors based on empirical data are also used. 11

17 Colonial School District Enrollment Projecons, Update 2A. Housing Acvity Impacts of Housing School Age Children by Type Connued MCPC analyzed student records matching the addresses of all mulfamily properes in the district with 25 or more units across four me periods going back to The results in Figures 17 and 18 reveal that these numbers have been going up and more students are living in exisng (built before 2000) apartment or condo units than in the past. However, the rate of increase has declined. Between 2011 and 2016, the average number of addional students coming from exisng developments was 26 students per year. From 2015 to 2016, the total went up by only 15 students. The projecon model has been adjusted to account for this reducon in growth. New construcon (built aer 2000) has brought significantly fewer students. As of 2016, the number of students coming from new mulfamily developments totaled only 36 students out of 1,854 units built a rao of 0.02 students per unit. FIGURE 17: Actual Colonial SD Data for All Multifamily Developments with 25 Units or More Year Colonial SD Students Units Student / Unit , , , , Note: Only includes public students and ratio is based on units, not households. Source: Colonial SD Records and MCPC analysis FIGURE 18: Actual Colonial SD Data for Multifamily Developments built before 2000 with 25 Units or More Year Colonial SD Students Units Student / Unit , , , , Note: Only includes public students and ratio is based on units, not households. Source: Colonial SD Records and MCPC analysis These factors help to provide a more accurate esmate of the impact from future housing proposals based on the type of units being proposed. See Mulfamily Housing Inventory on following page for more details 12

18 Colonial School District Enrollment Projecons, Update FIGURE 19: Multifamily Development with 25 or More Units and CSD Students in , , , and Name Street Address Units Date Built ES Area Students/ unit Student Count Student Count Student Count Student Count Parc Apts. 134 Plymouth Rd Ridge Park NA NA The Grande at Riverview 200/300 West Elm Street Conshohocken Courts at Spring Mill 1101 E Hector St Whitemarsh NA NA Riverwalk 309 Washington St Conshohocken Plymouth Hill 666 West Germantown Pike Ridge Park Place One Apartments 777 West Germantown Pike Plymouth Plymouth Gardens 1300 Fayee St Plymouth Londonbury at Millennium 301 Washington St Conshohocken NA Sherry Lake Apartments 1801 Butler Pike Ridge Park Plymouth Park Apartments 1700 Butler Pike Ridge Park Sussex Square 515 Plymouth Rd Plymouth Plymouthtowne Apartments Todd Ln; Eaton Sq; Chilton Ct; Brewster Sq; Wilder Sq; Bradford Wy Plymouth The Glen at Lafayee Hill 555 Andorra Glen Ct Ridge Park Lafayee Greene Condominium 250 Ridge Pike Ridge Park Washington Towers 491 S Bethlehem Pike Whitemarsh North Lane Apartments W North Ln Ridge Park Plymouth Rock Apartments 1919 Sandy Hill Rd Plymouth Green Valley Manor 150 Ridge Pike Ridge Park Carriage Hill Apartments 2098 Butler Pike Ridge Park Pleasant Valley E Hector St; Ash St; Harry St Conshohocken Maple Court Apartments 137 West Fih Ave Conshohocken TOTALS 4,

19 Colonial School District Enrollment Projecons, Update 2A. Housing Acvity Impacts of Housing Migraon FIGURE 20: Select Age Cohorts in Colonial SD Area Persons in households that have moved within Persons in Percent of Persons in Figure 20 appears to indicate that there is a lesser likelihood of pre-school age and school age children in households that have moved in the last year the last year Households Households People Age % People Age % People Age , % compared to households who have remained in place. However, these figures don t tell us who those new households are replacing. If no children were in the house before, then it would sll be a net gain. Total People 4, % Households that have moved have a high likelihood of having persons aged Persons in households Percent of This is the highest percentage we ve seen in the county. that have remained in the same house Persons in Households Persons in Households People Age 1-4 1, % People Age , % People Age , % Total People 37, % Source: American Community Survey, Estimates FIGURE 21: Impact of Housing Units Sold on Enrollment MCPC compared detailed sales transacons with student address records to idenfy the actual number of students leaving a home as compared to those Year of Housing Units Sold who entered aer the same home was sold. Number of Exisng Units Sold 464 Incoming Students at Address of Units Sold The data in Figure 21 concludes that there is a posive impact on enrollment that comes from the sale of exisng homes. Outgoing Students at Address of Units Sold Net Change in Students from Sales Acvity Comparing 2009, 2014, and 2015 sales, there were more sales by 2015, but the net gain in students as a result of those sales remained consistent. Increases in sales acvity should bring addional students, although the Source: Colonial SD Records, MCPC Median Price Sales Reports added impact is not dramac. 14

20 Colonial School District Enrollment Projecons, Update 2B. Housing Acvity Housing Units Built FIGURE 22: Housing Units Built in the Colonial SD by Housing Type, Multifamily Single Family Attached Single Family Detached Source: Montgomery County Planning Commission The last ten years of housing construcon in the district shows a boom/bust paern anchored by major mulfamily housing projects. A couple of mulfamily developments came online in 2010 and 2014, the Londonbury apartments in Conshohocken and the Courts at Spring Mill in Whitemarsh. The largest number of units came in 2015 with all 398 units of the Parc Apartments complex and a couple of age restricted properes in Whitemarsh, which are not expected to impact school enrollment. Single family aached homes also varied from year to year, but they featured smaller compact infill projects between 8 and 40 units in a locaon. The net impact on enrollment based on all of these housing types averages out to approximately 21 students per year. This baseline is used to determine what addional impact will be caused by new development expected in the future should it outpace previous construcon rates. 15

21 Colonial School District Enrollment Projecons, Update 2C. Housing Acvity Housing Units Proposed Table Figure 23 shows the official count of new submissions received by the Montgomery County Planning Commission over the last ten years. Some of these proposals have already been built, others are in the pipeline for development, and some may not be approved or be set aside for various reasons. The following page outlines the developments that have a strong likelihood of being built in the next five years. FIGURE 23: Housing Units Proposed in the Colonial SD, Multifamily Single Family Attached Single Family Detached

22 Colonial School District Enrollment Projecons, Update 2C. Housing Acvity Housing Units Proposed Table Figure 24 shows the current proposals that we feel have a strong likelihood of making it to construcon over the next 5 years. In addion to the Elementary School area affected by the development, we have also noted a general meline for each development. These are only esmates on our part. A project may move forward more quickly, or as is oen the case, get delayed due to unforeseen circumstances. Factors used to esmate the number of school age children per unit are shown in the right column for each development. Note that approximately 21% of all school age children are expected to enroll in nonpublic schools and are removed in the calculaons to determine net impact on enrollment. The projecon model accommodates a trend level of development, but these proposals in total will exceed recent construcon. The boom row idenfies the addional students that are added to the model aer accounng for trend development levels. FIGURE 24: Expected Housing Developments and Impact on Public School Enrollment Development ES School Type Total Units Public School Children Impact 51 Washington St. Consh. MF Washington St. Consh. MF Spring Mill, between 7th & 8th Consh. MF Wood St. Consh. SFA Colwell Lane Consh. SFA Driscoll Tract - Gravers Rd. Plymouth SFD Plymouthtowne Apts. Plymouth MF Corson Estate Ridge Park SFA Reserve at Creekside Whitemarsh SFA Whitemarsh Staon Whitemarsh SFD The Oaks at Lafayee Hill Ridge Park SFA Maple Hill Ridge Park SFD Totals 1, Public School Children Net Adjustment aer trend dev Factor used for School Age Children

23 Colonial School District Enrollment Projecons, Update 2C. Housing Acvity Housing Units Proposed Map FIGURE 25: Expected Housing Developments in the Colonial SD MORRIS RD Plymouthtowne Apts. 70 Apartments (MF) Approved, but plan not recorded yet. 3 Colwell Lane 16 Townhomes Proposed in Wood St 16 Townhomes Under construction Driscoll Tract 79 SFD units Conditional Use Approved. 51 Washington St. 310 Apartments (MF) Demolition underway SANDY HILL RD n NEW HOPE ST PLYMOUTH RD CONSHOHOCKEN RD FRONT ST BELVOIR RD ELM ST ARCH RD Colonial MS ALAN WOOD RD BROOK RD 276 Plymouth Township 476 COLWELL LN PLYMOUTH RD n FAYETTE ST n Plymouth ES GALLAGHER RD NORTH LN Conshohocken HECTOR ST Conshohocken ES CHEMICAL RD n 476 Ridge Park ES BUTLER PIKE HICKORY RD 76 CEDAR GROVE RD Whitemarsh Station 23 SFD units Under construction. NARCISSA RD BUTLER PIKE n n GERMANTOWN PIKE Colonial ES Plymouth Whitemarsh HS RIDGE PIKE JOSHUA RD BARREN HILL RD Spring Mill (between 7th & 8th Ave) 35 Apartments (MF) Court Settlement still has to go through land development. 401 Washington St. 619 Apartments (MF) Approved to be built in phases. MILITIA HILL RD Corson Estate 48 Townhomes (SFA) Still needs clearance from Zoning Hearing Board Whitemarsh Township n Whitemarsh ES FLOURTOWN RD Maple Hill 21 SFD Submitted in December. Review pending. CHURCH RD 0 MILITIA HILL RD STENTON AVE THOMAS RD MILL RD LAFAYETTE AVE The Oaks at Lafayette Hill 159 units First phase under construction but will take several years to build. PENNSYLVANIA AVE 276 CAMP HILL RD BETHLEHEM PIKE 309 VALLEY GREEN RD Reserve at Creekside 248 Townhomes Construction being phased. 49 units were completed before school year. Conshohocken Elementary Plymouth Elementary Ridge Park Elementary Whitemarsh Elementary Miles 18

24 Colonial School District Enrollment Projecons, Update 2D. Housing Acvity Housing Sales Acvity FIGURE 26: Total Housing Units Sold in the Colonial SD, Housing sales have rebounded the last few years aer dropping to historic lows when the housing bubble burst and the recession hit. An increase in sales typically fosters more student enrollment growth, although its incremental. Sales have also been analyzed at the elementary school level. The Conshohocken ES area has seen the greatest sales acvity Source: Montgomery County Planning Commission 19

25 PART 3 DISTRICT ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS

26 Colonial School District Enrollment Projecons, Update 3A. Projecons Cohort Progression Model and Progression Rates A cohort progression model is a commonly used method that relies on recent trend data to forecast the future. It uses Progression Rates to establish raos that reflect what happens to a class size as it advances from one grade to the next. All grades over mulple years are calculated and averages are used to program future class sizes over the next ten years. These rates will account for most recent trends and assumes that they will connue. Adjustments can be made when warranted. For more details on the background and structure of our cohort progression model, please see Part 3 of the original 2016 MCPC study. FIGURE 27: Grade Progression Rates Over the Last Five Years School Year Birth-K* K Average * The birth-to-kindergarten ratio uses birth data six years prior to the indicated school year, thus drawing the relationship between children born and the year they would actually enter kindergarten. Grade progression rates reflect the historical relaonship of one class as it goes from grade to grade over me. These rates reflect all the trends that have been discussed in this study. A rao larger than 1.0 means that the class is growing that year due to new students entering the district. CSD has mostly posive (1+)progression rates confirming that it is a strong district with a lot of appeal to families shopping for public school. 21

27 Colonial School District Enrollment Projecons, Update 3B. Projecons Projecon Scenarios A progression model inherently reflects all the recent trends that are occurring within a district. However, some trends may be likely to change in a manner that can be measured, and adjustments to the model can be integrated. Three Projecon Scenarios have been developed for this study. The descripon and assumpons of each are as follows: Opon One Base Future Birth Esmate Progression Rate averages are based on six years Future births are esmated as an average of the last five years An adjustment is made on the assumpon that the rate of increase in new students from older mulfamily buildings will decline Opon Two Base Future Birth Esmate Plus Housing Adjustment **RECOMMENDED SCENARIO** Maintains the same progression rates, birth esmates, and older mulfamily adjustment as Opon One Accounts for increase in expected housing construcon with an adjustment that recognizes impact beyond trend development level. Opon Three Higher Future Birth Esmate Plus Housing Adjustment Maintains the same progression rates, older mulfamily adjustment, and housing adjustment used in Opon Two Increase in Esmated Births Births affecng the enrollment size of classes beginning in could potenally increase beginning with the birth esmates. Instead of using the five year average for births, this scenario increases birth esmates by 5 each year so that they are up to 550 by which impacts the final year of our study period,

28 Colonial School District Enrollment Projecons, Update 3B. Projecons Opon 1 Base Future Birth Esmate FIGURE 28: Projected Enrollments, OPTION 1 Base Future Birth Estimate Births 6 School Year Years Ago* K TOTAL , , , , , , , , , ,719 * The birth figure for each row does not pertain to births during that year, but rather the births that occurred six years prior to the projected year. The average birth-to-kindergarten ratio is then applied to get the projected kindergarten class. Progression Rate averages are based on five years. Future births are esmated as an average of the last five years. An adjustment is made on the assumpon School Year Total 2016 Actual 4,863 Annual Change , , Grade K-3 Grade 4-5 Grade 6-8 Grade , ,059 1,479 1, ,030 1,479 1, ,101 1,469 that the rate of increase in new students from older mulfamily buildings will decline , , , , , ,151 1,453 1, ,195 1,417 1, ,189 1,460 1, ,247 1, , , ,341 1, , , ,386 1, , , ,374 1, , , ,352 1,750 Net Change

29 Colonial School District Enrollment Projecons, Update 3B. Projecons Opon 2 Base Future Birth Esmate Plus Housing Adjustment FIGURE 29: Projected Enrollments, OPTION 2 Base Future Birth Estimate Plus Housing Adjustment Births 6 School Year Years Ago* K TOTAL , , , , , , , , , ,887 * The birth figure for each row does not pertain to births during that year, but rather the births that occurred six years prior to the projected year. The average birth-to-kindergarten ratio is then applied to get the projected kindergarten class. Progression Rate averages are based on five years. Future births are esmated as an average of the last five years. An adjustment is made on the assumpon that the rate of increase in new students from older mulfamily buildings will decline. School Year Total 2016 Actual 4,863 Annual Change , , , , , Grade K-3 Grade 4-5 Grade 6-8 Grade , ,059 1,479 1, ,033 1,483 1, ,118 1,492 1, ,181 1,492 1, ,233 1,469 1, ,228 1,512 Accounts for increase in expected housing construcon with an adjustment that recognizes impact beyond trend development level , , , , , ,286 1,586 1, ,380 1,608 1, ,424 1,675 1, ,413 1, , , ,391 1,802 Net Change +1,

30 Colonial School District Enrollment Projecons, Update 3B. Projecons Opon 3 Higher Future Birth Esmate Plus Housing Adjustment FIGURE 30: Projected Enrollments, OPTION 3 Higher Future Birth Estimate Plus Housing Adjustment Births 6 School Year Years Ago* K TOTAL , , , , , , , , , ,970 * The birth figure for each row does not pertain to births during that year, but rather the births that occurred six years prior to the projected year. The average birth-to-kindergarten ratio is then applied to get the projected kindergarten class. Progression Rate averages are based on five years. Future births are esmated to increase over me beginning to have an effect on the school year. An adjustment is made on the assumpon that the rate of increase in new students from older mulfamily buildings will decline. School Year Total 2016 Actual 4,863 Annual Change , , , , , , Grade K-3 Grade 4-5 Grade 6-8 Grade , ,059 1,479 1, ,033 1,483 1, ,118 1,492 1, ,181 1,492 1, ,233 1,469 1, ,228 1,512 1, ,286 1,586 Accounts for increase in expected housing construcon with an adjustment that recognizes impact beyond trend development level , , , , , ,380 1,608 1, ,424 1,675 1, ,413 1,735 1, ,391 1,802 Net Change +1,

31 PART 4 ELEMENTARY SCHOOL PROFILES

32 Conshohocken ES Past Enrollment Year K Total Annual Change Housing Data Year New Units Built Exisng Units Sold SFD SFA MF Total SFD SFA MF Total Total Housing Proposals Development ES School Type Total Units Public School Children Impact 51 Washington St. Consh. MF Washington St. Consh. MF Spring Mill, between 7th & 8th Consh. MF Wood St. Consh. SFA Colwell Lane Consh. SFA Colonial School District Enrollment Projecons, Update Past Enrollment Large kg class will connue through grades and leave in Housing small bump from new construcon proposed in relaon to recent trend. Births next 4 years of kg from birth acvity will be increased. Forecast Growth is ancipated, especially in the 2018 and 2019 school years from upcoming kg and construcon. An increase of by school year. Births in Conshohocken School Year Births

33 Colonial School District Enrollment Projecons, Update Plymouth ES Past Enrollment Year K Total Annual Change Past Enrollment Recent growth has put all grades at a high level, so addional growth will have to come from other impacts. Housing Increase in sales acvity in recent years, but lile construcon. Driscoll tract makes big impact in 2-3 years. Births Next 4 years of kg from birth acvity will be increased. Forecast Stac next year, but grade levels should trend further upwards with large kg classes and new construcon. An increase of by school year is possible. Births in Plymouth Housing Data Year New Units Built Exisng Units Sold SFD SFA MF Total SFD SFA MF Total Total Housing Proposals Development ES School Type Total Units School Year Public School Children Impact Driscoll Tract - Gravers Rd. Plymouth SFD Plymouthtowne Apts. Plymouth MF Births

34 Colonial School District Enrollment Projecons, Update Ridge Park ES Past Enrollment Year K Total Annual Change Housing Data New Units Built Exisng Units Sold Year SFD SFA MF Total SFD SFA MF Total Total Housing Proposals Past Enrollment Grade levels are high across the spectrum so less impact from exisng classes moving through. Housing Increase in sales acvity recently, with consistent construcon and the Parc apartments. The Oaks will start to add students over the next five years. Births next 4 years of kg from birth acvity could be increased but less conclusive due to amount and split between boundaries. Forecast Growth (25-35 students) is ancipated over the next 2 years. It should connue beyond then and possibly gain more if the other two proposed developments move forward. Approximately students more by school year. Births in Plymouth & Whitemarsh School Year Births Development ES School Type Total Units Public School Children Impact The Oaks at Lafayee Hill Ridge Park SFA Maple Hill Ridge Park SFD Corson Estate Ridge Park SFA

35 Colonial School District Enrollment Projecons, Update Whitemarsh ES Past Enrollment Year K Total Annual Change Housing Data New Units Built Exisng Units Sold Year SFD SFA MF Total SFD SFA MF Total Total Housing Proposals Past Enrollment Average class sizes in current year except for a major jump in the kg class which drove current year higher than expected. Housing increase in sales acvity recently, with lile construcon unl SM. Some immediate impact from upcoming developments. Births Whitemarsh totals do not indicate same jumps in birth acvity as rest of district. KG classes may not hold at the same level as in Forecast Moderate growth of about students is ancipated the next 2 years with new construcon and incoming class sizes. Approximately students more by school year. Births in Whitemarsh School Year Births Development ES School Type Total Units Public School Children Impact Reserve at Creekside Whitemarsh SFA Whitemarsh Staon Whitemarsh SFD

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