The 2015 International Concept Development & Experimentation Conference Report

Transcription

1 The 2015 International Concept Development & Experimentation Conference Report Accelerating Innovation through Concept Development & Experimentation Hosted by The German Federal Ministry of Defence Sponsored by Headquarters, Supreme Allied Commander Transformation Capability Engineering and Innovation Division and The United States Joint Staff Directorate for Joint Force Development A N LL IO T IE A D C M R O M M A N D TR N A FO S Approved for Public Release

2 The 2015 International Concept Development & Experimentation Conference Report BGen Henrik Sommer, DNK A (l) and Brig Gen Paul Bauman, USAF (r), provide opening remarks. (All photos by Senior Chief Mass Communication Specialist Aaron Glover.) November 2015 Delegates show their solidarity with France in the wake of terrorist attacks in Paris by taking part in two minutes of silence. From the Co-Sponsors - Brigadier General Henrik Sommer, DNK Army, Assistant Chief of Staff, Capability Engineering and Innovation Division, Headquarters, Supreme Allied Commander Transformation (HQ SACT) Kilcullen, Founder and Chairman of Caerus Global Solutions provided a pertinent presentation on this topic in the afternoon of the first day of the conference. He pointed out that more people are living in urban environments and costal/littoral cities than ever before, and this trend is increasing more rapidly than imagined. This is stressing the infrastructure and creating a planet of slums where unplanned urbanization overstresses resources (e.g. water and communications). The competition for these assets can result in unrest and potential government collapse. - Brigadier General Paul Bauman, USA Air Force, Deputy Director, Future Joint Force Development, Joint Staff J7 This was the fifteenth year the annual conference was held and cosponsored by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) [Headquarters Supreme Allied Command Transformation (HQ SACT)] and the United States [Joint Staff (JS) J7]. The German Federal Ministry of Defence hosted this conference and the Bundeswehr Planning Office (PlgABw) was their executive agent. The success of this year s conference is directly hinged upon the excellent support of Germany and its planning officers. A total of 231 delegates attended, representing 29 nations, NATO and the European Union, which is the largest attendance in last five years. The first day was also filled with four informational sessions: Ÿ NATO CD&E Innovation Vision Ÿ United States Joint Concept Development Ÿ Multinational Capability Development Campaign (MCDC) Update Ÿ NATO Concept Development & Experimentation White Paper A memorable evening reception was hosted by the German Federal Ministry of Defense, following the first day activities. The theme was Accelerating Innovation through Concept Development & Experimentation. Our conference objectives were achieved: Ÿ Create an environment conducive to information sharing and networking; Ÿ Contribute to ongoing CD&E work in the Alliance and individual nations; Ÿ Share CD&E best practices and lessons learned to the benefit of the participants. The remainder of the conference was dedicated to a seminar and three workshops. Delegates chose to attend and participate in one of the following: Ÿ CD&E German Best Practices Not Only for Beginners Workshop led by PlgABw Ÿ Countering Unmanned Autonomous Systems (CUAxS) Seminar led by HQ SACT Ÿ Federated Mission Networking/Mission Partner Environment: Civilian / Military Workshop (FMCM) led by US JS J6 and supported by JS J7 Ÿ Multinational Examination of the US Joint Concept for Robotic and Autonomous Systems led by US JS J7 Rear Admiral Thomas Jugel, Director of Bundeswehr Planning Office (PlgABw), kicked off as the keynote, highlighting the challenges facing NATO, including hybrid warfare, cyber, and the deficiency of national military equipment within many NATO nations. He emphasized NATO must be at a higher state of readiness and focus on the requirements within the Readiness Action Plan. Why is Urbanization Important to NATO? We thank the delegates who attended and extend an invitation to the community as a whole to work together to develop solutions that are needed today and in the future. Dr. David 1

3 Day 1 Monday, 16 November 2015 Welcome Remarks - Brigadier General Henrik Sommer, DNK Army, Assistant Chief of Staff, Capability Engineering and Innovation Division, Headquarters, Supreme Allied Commander Transformation (HQ SACT) - Brigadier General Paul Bauman, USA Air Force, Deputy Director, Future Joint Force Development, Directorate for Joint Force Development, The USA Joint Staff (JS J7) Welcome Remarks and Keynote Address - Rear Admiral Thomas Jugel, DEU Navy, Director, Bundeswehr Planning Office (PlgABw) NATO CD&E Innovation Vision - Colonel Emmanuel Castel, Armament Acquisition Directorate FRA Ministry of Defence, Section Head Collaboration with Academia and Industry, Future Solutions Branch, HQ SACT United States Joint Concept Development - Mr. Ric Schulz, USA Civilian, Division Chief, Joint Concept Development Division, JS J7 Multinational Capability Development Campaign (MCDC) Update - Mr. Eric Copeland, USA Civilian, Branch Head, Multinational Capability Development, JS J7 NATO Concept Development & Experimentation White Paper - Colonel Christoph Pliet, DEU Air Force, Operational Concept Development Branch Head, HQ SACT Why is Urbanization Important to NATO? and the NATO Urbanization CD&E Project - Dr. David Kilcullen, USA Civilian, Founder and Chairman of Caerus Global Solutions - Lieutenant Colonel Andre Ewald, DEU Air Force, Concept Development Branch, HQ SACT Conference Agenda Workshop & Seminar Scene Setters by the Workshop and Seminar Leaders t CD&E DEU Best Practices Not Only for CD&E Beginners - Lieutenant Colonel (GS) Soenke Marahrens, DEU Air Force, Team PlgABw t Countering Unmanned Autonomous Systems - Major Jean-Claude Deskeuvre, BEL Army, Project Manager, Concept Development Branch, HQ SACT t Federated Mission Networking/Mission Partner Environment: Civilian/Military - Mr. Bill Cryan, USA Civilian t Command, Control, Communications and Computers (C4)/Cyber Directorate, The USA Joint Staff (JS J6) Liaison Officer to HQ SACT t Multinational Examination of the United States Joint Concept for Robotic and Autonomous Systems - Lieutenant Colonel Walt Hattemer, USA Air Force, Joint Concept Development Division, JS J7 Introduction to Conference Collaborative Tools and an Electronic Survey - Mr. David Beckwith, NATO Civilian, Deputy Branch Head, Operational Experimentation, HQ SACT NATO CD&E Course Advertisement - Lieutenant Colonel Stefan Ristow, DEU Air Force, CD&E Course Director, NATO School, Oberammergau Bundeswehr PlgABw Hosted Reception at the Ministry of Defence Day 2 Tuesday, 17 November 2015 Workshops and Seminars t CD&E DEU Best Practices Not Only for CD&E Beginners (DEU CD&E) - Lieutenant Colonel (GS) Soenke Marahrens t Countering Unmanned Autonomous Systems (CUAxS) - Major Jean-Claude Deskeuvre t Federated Mission Networking/Mission Partner Environment: Civilian/Military (FMCM) - Mr. Bill Cryan t Multinational Examination of the United States Joint Concept for Robotic and Autonomous Systems (JCRAS) - Lieutenant Colonel Walt Hattemer Day 3 Wednesday, 18 November 2015 Workshops and Seminars t CD&E DEU Best Practices Not Only for CD&E Beginners (DEU CD&E) - Lieutenant Colonel (GS) Soenke Marahrens t Countering Unmanned Autonomous Systems (CUAxS) - Major Jean-Claude Deskeuvre t Federated Mission Networking/Mission Partner Environment: Civilian/Military (FMCM) - Mr. Bill Cryan t Multinational Examination of the United States Joint Concept for Robotic and Autonomous Systems (JCRAS) - Lieutenant Colonel Walt Hattemer Workshop and Seminar Feedback Summaries t CD&E DEU Best Practices Not Only for CD&E Beginners (DEU CD&E) - Lieutenant Colonel (GS) Soenke Marahrens t Countering Unmanned Autonomous Systems (CUAxS) - Major Jean-Claude Deskeuvre t Federated Mission Networking/Mission Partner Environment: Civilian/Military (FMCM) - Mr. Bill Cryan t Multinational Examination of the United States Joint Concept for Robotic and Autonomous Systems (JCRAS) - Lieutenant Colonel Walt Hattemer Electronic Survey administered - Mr. David Beckwith Closing Remarks - Brigadier General Paul Bauman - Brigadier General Henrik Sommer - Rear Admiral Thomas Jugel 2

4 RAdm Thomas Jugel, DEU N, provides the keynote address. Keynote Address - Rear Admiral Thomas Jugel, DEU Navy, Director, Bundeswehr Planning Of ce (PlgABw) Rear Admiral Thomas Jugel highlighted several issues that the Concept, Development and Experimentation (CD&E) process faces and the implications on future tasks for both NATO and Germany. Changes to the threat situation such as failed states, multi-directed terrorist threats and organized crime are concerns partner nations face at strategic, political and military levels. Two strategic challenges identified were hybrid warfare and cyber. He challenged the CD&E community to close the loop between strategic, political and military environments. There are substantial changes to the threat situation including multi directed terrorist threats, failed states, non-state actors, organized crime and proliferation. We see this in Syria and Ukraine, and they are game changers. Within NATO we have adapted. At the Lisbon Summit in November 2010, NATO's new Strategic Concept was adopted. It identified three essential core tasks: collective defense, crisis management, and cooperative security. In 2014, at the Wales Summit, Allied leaders approved the Readiness Action Plan (RAP), a cohesive package to support collective defense and cohesive effect by providing assurance and crisis capabilities. In 2015, the RAP adaptation measures aim to ensure the Alliance capability to address the array of potential future military challenges. For Germany, the main tasks and assignments remain unchanged, but there is a need to rebalance military capabilities against new requirements. There needs to be sufficient quantity and quality of equipment to support all types of conventional military requirements. Concerning multinationality, we will rely on a proven force generation approach within NATO. NATO collective defense requires higher states of readiness. NATO Defense Ministers should link those requirements with the RAP, through linked clusters and larger multinational formations, and generated through the NATO Defence Planning Process. The Future Analysis Branch at the German Ministry of Defense has four tasks: (1) Observation of future trends interdisciplinary team of military and industry, (e.g., demographics, hybrid, digitization, autonomous); (2) Futures, (e.g., robotics, human enhancement), (3) Development of alternative futures; and (4) Maintaining national and international disciplinaries. Hybrid Warfare is not new or a Russian invention. Since Crimea 2014, this has been the focus of political debates. We must be aware of these tactics and use the tools and methods of CD&E to overcome them. Cyber, also is not new, but persistent and it continues to grow in importance. Cybercrime is on the rise around the globe. Likely developments are that cyber is being used in all conflicts now, and it is not confined to bits and bytes. What can happen and how can we prepare ourselves in the long term? Examine medium and long range trends, but some decisions must be short to medium range. Yesterday's mission is not same as tomorrow's. Lessons learned are only applicable to a certain extent. We need to be adaptive and modernized. CD&E provides the flexibility of intellectual maneuver. In closing, Rear Admiral Jugel challenged the conference attendees to be proactive and more interactive during the workshops. The overall CD&E process remains valid in our environment today, as it has contributed directly to the success of coalition efforts in recent years. An informed look at the history of military operations humbles us as to what we think can happen in the future. Collectively, NATO can move intellectually and use CD&E to gain an advantage against future challenges our nations will face. 3

5 The 2015 International Concept The Development 2015 International & Experimentation Concept & Development Conference Report Conference Report November 2015 NATO CD&E Innovation Vision - Colonel Emmanuel Castel, Armament Acquisition Directorate FRA Ministry of Defence, Section Head Collaboration with Academia and Industry, Future Solutions Branch, HQ SACT NATO needs an innovation strategy for the coming decades. NATO SEC GEN, March 2015 NATO s military superiority is already at risk. Adversaries are taking advantage of the anti-access area denial strategy which will limit the ability to project forces. Our enemies are utilizing inexpensive methods with high effectiveness that result in high cost defense or retaliation from us, and our superiority is eroding with already high costs. The risk of a non-sustainable model exists. Can our conventional kinetic systems work against drones or other non-traditional adversaries? Is our money best spent on big weapons, aircraft and aircraft carriers? Or should we focus on the need for non-traditional responses and capabilities. At the NATO Wales Summit held in September 2014, heads of state and governments have taken a significant step towards reinvestment into security. They pledged an investment equal to 2% of gross domestic product in defense and 20% hereof in new equipment and research and development in the next decade. Can we wait until the next decade to meet this metric? The value of investing in innovation is a key, and must be, at the political level, made clear and the return of investment transparent. As a key tenant of Allied Command Transformation from a strategic military perspective, nations must be incentivized to invest in innovation. Conditions need to be created for militaries to make this investment. A framework for Future Alliance Operations identifies 5 strategic military efforts in order for NATO to cope with longterm security challenges (2030 and beyond) Ÿ Operational agility Ÿ Strategic awareness Ÿ Security networking Ÿ Shared resilience Ÿ Strategic communications Capability development must be inclusive of allied nations and partners. Interoperability should leverage industrial capabilities, open architecture, plug and play such as the opportunities that Federated Mission Networking illustrates with an approach to innovation. 27 nations plus 5 partner nations are already involved in the program, that offers nations freedom of margin for implementation (national industry, multinational cooperation, NATO agency, etc.), and therefore offer them to choose the best option in terms of investment. Training and exercises naturally provide an enhanced opportunity for innovation across the alliance, such as Coalition Warrior Interoperability and Trident Juncture. Innovation is also a response against disruptive technology. CD&E is one of the best venues to encourage, display and discuss innovation. Where does innovation acceleration come from? Acceleration comes from variety of perspectives. Innovation CD&E 365 allows for a continuous dialogue of CD&E initiatives. The presence of the United States as a co-lead is important as the USA launched a new Defense Innovation Initiative (DII), including development of new concepts, acquisitions, and war gaming, which offers a natural stimulant to the whole CD&E community. Innovation is the implementation of a new or significantly improved product. It is important to deliver results. Risks must be taken, ideas need to be tested and challenged. The key is that the implementation of innovations must show a value for host nations to incentivize them to invest, and therefore that communication to our nations is a critical element of success. Col Emmanuel Castel, FRA F, engages the audience. 4

6 United States Joint Concept Development - Mr. Ric Schulz, USA Civilian, Division Chief, Joint Concept Development Division, JS J7 The United States is in the process of revising the Joint Operating Environment (JOE) 2010 and the Capstone Concept for Joint Operations (CCJO) The JOE provides the Joint Force an intellectual foundation upon which concepts are constructed to guide future force development. It frames the problem for the CCJO. The CCJO was the Chairman s vision for Joint Force 2020, which describes potential operational concepts through which the Joint Force of 2020 will defend the nation against a wide range of security challenges. The JOE will help define the problem, based on contested norms and disorders, key conditions, contexts of future conflict, implications for the Joint Force, and enduring military missions. The US has run four futures workshops designed to identify key conditions that might cause the security environment to change. The contexts of future conflict combine the key conditions to describe the who, what where and why of future conflict. Joint Force opportunities and challenges are reoccurring and the most dangerous themes across the contexts of future conflict. Implications for the future Joint Force are missions and supporting operations to exploit opportunities and mitigate challenges. The CCJO describes the military challenge for the future joint force to accomplish the full range of military missions to achieve sustainable strategic outcomes given a future security environment--globally synchronized operations. This includes multiple, simultaneous, interconnected challenges; shared and globally distributed resources; increasingly diverse and capable adversaries; and increased requirement for integration with interorganizational partners. We expect revisions to the JOE and CCJO in Multinational Capability Development Campaign (MCDC) Update - Mr. Eric Copeland, USA Civilian, Branch Head, Multinational Capability Development, JS J7 Mr. Eric Copeland, US Joint Staff J7, provided an overview of the Multinational Capability Development Campaign (MCDC) and an update on projects in the current cycle of work. MCDC utilizes the CD&E processes in working with partners to provide non-materiel solutions. MCDC is driven by a diverse community of 24 nations and international organizations with significant reach-back to their respective communities. Each nation is responsible for transition. For the US, transition includes non-materiel solutions to the Combatant Commands, Services, and inter-agency organizations (e.g., Doctrine for Joint Fires, improvements to training standard operating procedures, etc.). Romania is the newest member, joining in October Non-participants can have products released to them after approval of the participants. Each campaign consists of three 24-month programs of work. The overarching theme of the current campaign is to broadly support Interoperability for Future Combined Joint Operations. The three constituent cycles are aimed at (1) Building and Maintaining Regional Security , (2) Rapid Aggregation of Coalition and Partner Forces , and (3) Operation of Coalition and Partner Forces at Extended Ranges We are in the solution development portion of the current cycle. The current cycle of work covers the period from January 2015 through December Each cycle generally consists of 6-months of deliberate and detailed planning, 18-months of evaluation, and 6-months of publishing and transitioning the product for release (the Find, Fix, Evaluate, and Exploit framework). This framework ultimately provides a longrange planning construct that will assist member nations in synchronizing and coordinating operations. Four significant benefits include: Ÿ building and strengthening partnerships Ÿ conducting force development efforts Ÿ maximizing resource sharing Ÿ sharing best practices between partners Project titles and lead countries of the current cycle of work are: Ÿ Joint Combined Operations In and From Confined Waters (Germany) Ÿ Integrated Communication Demonstration (Germany/Sweden) Ÿ Multination Defensive Cyberspace Operations (United States) Ÿ Federated Mission Networking/Mission Partner Environment (NATO ACT, United States) Ÿ Counter Unmanned Autonomous Systems (NATO ACT) Ÿ Understand to Prevent #2 (United Kingdom) Ÿ Medical Interoperability in Coalition Operations (Germany) Ÿ The Utility of Social Media to Enhance Coalition Operations (Germany) Ÿ Countering Hybrid Warfare (Norway) 5

7 NATO Concept Development & Experimentation White Paper - Colonel Christoph Pliet, DEU Air Force, Operational Concept Development Branch Head, HQ SACT After 15 years of CD&E, are we doing the right thing? We want to produce the right products, but are we delivering correctly to the nations? But why is CD&E not known to a larger audience, especially our leaders? Ideally, we would like the operators to ask for our support. Surprisingly, although the nations have agreed to the Readiness Action Plan, no nation has asked for CD&E support to evaluate, experiment, and validate the proposed solutions. Nations question CD&E, so this White Paper addresses these concerns and asks the hard questions. What if there was no CD&E? Are we building the right community of interest? What is the impact of CD&E? Strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats analysis provides key recommendations, but we still need to demonstrate the value and benefit of CD&E. There is a need for a senior officer or champion of CD&E endeavors. NATO CD&E needs a central governing body with a fusion cell. We must professionalize CD&E, by conducting CD&E and needs analysis training, and develop a CD&E staff training plan. This will prepare the CD&E staff, organizations and networks for future challenges. The CD&E handbook requires update and we need collaborative tools, such as CD&E 365. Colonel Pliet requested attendees provide input and feedback from the White Paper as to develop an implementation plan. The survey is available on CD&E 365. The link to register for CD&E 365 is untrequest/register.aspx. Why is Urbanization Important to NATO? and NATO Urbanization CD&E Project - Dr. David Kilcullen, USA Civilian, Founder and Chairman of Caerus Global Solutions - Lieutenant Commander Mustafa Sagir, TUR Navy, Concept Development Branch, HQ SACT This seminar provided: Ÿ Why urbanization is important for NATO Ÿ Project summary on how NATO will conduct the project Ÿ Critical commentary on project including lessons learned Why does Urbanization matter? The So What for NATO. Data shows that more people are living in urban environments than ever before, and that this trend of people migrating to cities is increasing. The greatest urban growth is currently taking place in underdeveloped regions such as Africa, Latin America and South Asia. This is a long-standing phenomenon dating back at least to the Industrial Revolution, but the explosion of electronic connectivity in developing world cities is a new factor that has emerged within the last 20 years. Unfortunately, the infrastructure for these areas is the least equipped areas to handle this growth. Most of the rapidly growing spots are located near the world s coastlines in littoral areas, coastal cities that are densely connected between and among them, and also connected with rural hinterlands with global network capabilities. The major concern with this rapid population growth is that this growth is not evenly spread; it is concentrated on littoral urban areas. Urban growth in these areas will absorb all of the population growth expected over the next forty years and will be focused on less developed cities. As of 2008, the planet has a higher population in urban areas than it will in rural areas for the first time in human history. A quote shared was that, The world is becoming a planet of slums. In 2050, 6 billion people will be living in slums this is the population of the world in While there are some benefits to rising urban populations, the rapid speed at which it is happening is the issue. The major downside to rapid, unplanned urbanization is that cities become overstressed due to the speed of population growth. Urban over-stretch can place stress on valuable resources such as water in the urban fringe which could eventually lead to unrest. Feral cities can also cause the subsequent collapse of a city-state, leading to militarization of the public space, as was seen in Somalia. Should a state collapse, non-state actors can fill the ungoverned space, and will potentially do so with weapons that have infiltrated the country. Non-state actors are often allies, sometimes more trusted than government. Explosion of mobile communications and connectivity in urban environments is transforming conflict. Motivated and mobilized populations are becoming more connected and now repurpose commercial equipment for military use. By 2035 we expect de-urbanization in parts of US and Europe, resulting in: Ÿ >65% will live in connected cities Ÿ water crises in large cities Ÿ rural-peri-urban security challenges prompted by rural to urban migration Ÿ twice the number of mega cities as present 6

8 The 2015 International Concept The Development 2015 International & Experimentation Concept & Development Conference Report Conference Report November 2015 Why is Urbanization Important to NATO? and NATO Urbanization CD&E Project (Continuation) To model the impacts of urbanization, an experiment has been undertaken to assess and understand the effects of this growth. Highlights of the NATO Urbanization CD&E Project 18 NATO nations and 17 Centres of Excellence, as well as various International Organizations, Non-governmental Organizations, City and Academic Institutions, have participated in the Conceptual Study and the Experiment. Ÿ 31 Mar 16 NATO Urbanisation Conceptual Study Delivery Ÿ Apr 16 Mid Planning Conference for 2nd Experiment Ÿ Apr-May 16 University of Texas & Oxford University Trial Ÿ 6-10 Jun 16 Final Planning Conference for 2nd Experiment Ÿ 26 Sep-06 Oct 16 2nd Experiment Execution Linkages of the Project Ÿ Urbanization is a focus area for the NATO Framework for Future Alliance Operations work. Ÿ The project has contributed directly to the Stage 2 NATO Defence Planning Process scenarios. First Experiment Assumptions Ÿ NATO will very likely play a supporting role rather than leading role. Ÿ NATO forces will require transformation efforts in order to effectively operate in a future urban environment. Ÿ Strategic communications, policing skills, force protection, power structures, collecting and analyzing data, end state of the operation in an urban operation should be taken into account and improved. Way ahead Ÿ Feb 16 Scripting Workshop at HQ SACT Critique of the NATO Urbanization Project Ÿ Combined, Joint, civilian-military and subject matter expert representation was excellent at all stages (but needs to continue) to ensure latest data and insights are brought in. Ÿ Very powerful synthetic experimental environment developed by the Modelling and Simulation Centre of Excellence though we are yet to fully exploit its capabilities. Ÿ Current conflicts (e.g., Syria, Iraq, Ukraine) offer opportunities for live-action experimentation and design opportunities to validate hypotheses for next stage of process. Ÿ Much of what we thought of as a 2035 problem turns out to be a 2015 problem change is happening much more quickly than expected. Modelling and Simulation must be re-purposed as a dynamic automated platform for future intelligence and decision support uses. 7

9 Workshops & Seminars LtCol (GS) Soenke Marahrens (c) prepares for his workshop. CD&E - DEU Best Practices not only for CD&E beginners DEU led Seminar Workshop LtCol Soenke Marahrens, DEU Air Force, Division Head, Scienti c Support and Interoperability Directorate, Bundeswehr Planning Of ce Problem Statement Concept Development & Experimentation is by nature a noncomplicated scientific approach and methodology: Have an idea, create a written concept paper, experiment open / unresolved questions and / or value of the concept analyse the experiment(s) and adapt your concept accordingly). Almost every nation and organization like NATO tends to have slightly different approaches to CD&E. Challenges The participants came from a variety of nations / multinational organizations and their CD&E familiarity ranged from beginner to expert level. Objectives To provide first hand impressions on CD&E by guiding participants through the different stages of a generic CD&E project: concept development, experimentation and analysis. To inform participants of German CD&E approaches; and to demonstrate the different functions and responsibilities of a concept developer, an experiment designer, and an analyst. The German CD&E team has collected a vast amount of lessons identified and learnt and they actively share with multinational partners. In summary, Germany has 14 years of Concept Development & Experimentation (CD&E) experience. During this period, more than 50 national and multinational projects have been completed using the CD&E methodology. Structure of the Seminar For the purpose of the workshop, a two-sided approach was conducted. Spot briefings from German CD&E practitioners followed by a mini case study called Gamification for Military Training. The subject was chosen, because training is by nature a venue which is relevant to all audiences, Military, Academia, Defense Industry, etc. Three Workshop Phases Phase 1 included an introduction of CD&E, Case Study and Classcraft (a free online educational role-playing game, creating a gamification layer) as enabling software for modern teaching. Phase 2 allowed participants to role play as a concept developer, an experiment designer and an analyst in order to better understand those roles and responsibilities. After inbriefings from German subject matter experts on their experiences in the responsibility and role, every participant was tasked to take over that responsibility function. Every subphase started with an introduction into necessary generic process elements. This was supported by the use of the Picture Card Method. Every session took place in a gamification environment by the use of the software Classcraft. Professional CD&E analyst observed and assessed the workshop. Every subphase concluded with an 8

10 CD&E - DEU Best Practices not only for CD&E beginners DEU led Seminar (Continuation) outbrief session, which allowed the participant to map personal experience to the overall workshop objectives. Phase 3 explored technical challenges for experimentation (e.g., Information Technology security, use of new technology, etc.). A summary of the workshop results and out brief finalized this phase. Conclusion The approach to take all workshop participants through the three different roles: Concept Developer, Analyst and Experiment Director to provide a hands-on experience was highly valued by the audience. The box in a box in box approach, as stated by one participant, offered the opportunity to gain experience on CD&E from different perspectives and in different roles. Using a common interest case study of Gamification, allowed participants to gain personal experience on using CD&E methodologies and opened the floor for wider discussions. Classcraft allowed participants to understand How to work innovation, including possible restraints and constraints as well as it created an immersive workshop environment. Countering Unmanned Autonomous Systems (CUAxS) Seminar Major Jean-Claude Deskeuvre, BEL Army, Project Manager, Concept Development Branch, HQ SACT Unmanned Autonomous Systems are increasingly commonplace in military and civilian environments as technological advances sweep in these systems and radically increase their capabilities. These facts require us to envision new methods of countering these systems should they be used in hostile manners. Humans are increasingly becoming connected to machines through better and more intuitive man-machine interfaces, where keyboards are being replaced by gestures and voice control. Sophisticated sensors allow the machines to sense the human. Is our reality now going beyond fiction? Technologically, we see the latest evolution leads to nearautonomous operations by combining powerful algorithms and ultra-sensitive sensors. Challenges Autonomy of a system is the key characteristic, although agreeing on a single definition of autonomy is difficult. One challenge is to agree on the categorization of levels of autonomy. System utilization will be influenced by legal and ethical considerations and public perceptions. The threat of these systems is versatile due to the ease in obtaining them, their autonomy, varying levels of trust about the manmachine interaction, cultural differences, and a lack of common regulations in their use and design. The autonomous dimension is here today and this must be recognized by all concept developers. The NATO CD&E community needs to capture these challenges in a capstone concept to address ways to implement effective countermeasures. Problem Statement Whether military or civilian, unmanned systems with evolving autonomous capabilities are increasingly important and common in today's environment. Their low cost, ease of acquisition, and wide functional capabilities makes this system available to both state and non-state actors. The rapid spiral technological developments lead to exponential capability improvements and even lower costs. Proliferation and innovative uses of improvised systems make this threat even more unpredictable. We need to question how these unmanned systems can be designed and used, (e.g., policybased self-learning autonomy, single high priced system versus swam of disposable cheap assets). Objectives of the Seminar Ÿ Provide concrete examples of concept development, based on the NATO CD&E process, to the CD&E community Ÿ Increase the situational awareness of the various aspects linked to the proliferation of unmanned systems and their evolving autonomy Ÿ Change the mindset regarding countering Unmanned Autonomous Systems (UAxS) in the future Ÿ Broaden the Community of Interest (COI) Ÿ Receive feedback from the delegates about the challenges of this rapidly evolving technology and appropriate countermeasures Ÿ Demonstrate current technological developments 9

11 Countering Unmanned Autonomous Systems (CUAxS) Seminar (Continuation) Structure of the Seminar Part One To set the scene for delegates to have a common understanding of Unmanned Autonomous Systems (UAxS), what is available today, and what is possible in the future. Part Two Discuss and receive feedback areas addressing UAxS. What is the near-future Command & Control based on the evolving autonomy? Address operational, moral, and counter-robotic challenges. Review NATO Science and Technology Organization's views and contributions and operational ethical decision-making, human-robot interaction, and legal aspects of autonomous systems. Part Three Addressing the evolution of current to future challenges using unmanned systems with evolving autonomy, the weaknesses and vulnerabilities and the implementation of software for UAxS. Presentations of acoustic detection systems and technology used to implement autonomy in unmanned systems. It also focused on existing technology embedded in a demonstrator exhibited during the seminar. Conclusions All of the objectives were covered over the 1.5 days. The NATO CUAxS project illustrates the value and flexibility of the NATO CD&E process in developing concepts, but it needs to be customized to the requirements of the project through organization and execution. In addition, synergy by linking complementary efforts makes it possible to address a more comprehensive scope in a cost-effective way through a larger COI. Discussions during the panel sessions showed the UAxS threat here and now, some technologies are being used in current theatres of operation, and we have to prepare effective countermeasures now. There is a need to for decision-makers to understand how autonomy can affect the behaviour of unmanned systems. Countermeasures have to address the full development and control chain of a UAxS, and where and when to target these weaknesses. Human interaction must be considered from two perspectives. First, where are the UAxS teaming with individuals placed within the current military unit structure? Second, when would the human could become a subsystem within a larger system? This last one is a main constraint when considering implementation levels of autonomy. State or non-state actors might not have the same considerations. Currently, from a legal perspective, there are no showstoppers within the current legal regulations. We should use the law as an enabler. There is no single solution that provides us with a full detection or countering capability. Integration and interoperability among various systems will be required. Considering the technology to implement autonomy, technology (e.g, Compsim s Knowledge Enhanced Electronic Logic (KEEL )) is demonstrating that near-future solutions exist and could be used because of the embedded traceability of the performed actions. This is also showing that best practices to design and build unmanned systems with evolving autonomy are critical to ensure the UAxS behaviour is complaint with the existing legal regulations and that there is no need to create new laws. A global approach to the CUAxS challenge is required. Expanding the COI is critical to inducing the change of mind set needed to address the implementation of future UAxS countermeasures in the appropriate way. Discussions during a break. 10

12 Federated Mission Networking (FMN) / Mission Partner Environment (MPE) Civilian-Military (FMCM) Project Workshop Mr. Bill Cryan, USA Civilian, Command, Control, Communications and Computers (C4)/Cyber Directorate, The USA Joint Staff (JS) J6 Liaison Of cer to HQ SACT As coalition partners implement NATO Federated Mission Networking (FMN) and U.S. Mission Partner Environment (MPE), Coalition Force Commanders must ensure these frameworks support and enable the planning and execution required for the timely establishment of effective information sharing processes and systems to support cooperation, coordination, and collaboration with non-military mission partners. Closure or mitigation of the following gap areas will provide a coalition force the ability to rapidly leverage the federation of military mission networks to better support and execute required Civilian-Military (Civ-Mil) operations. The Workshop focused on: Ÿ Mission Thread methodology Ÿ Information/data exchange requirements/standards Ÿ MPE/FMN processes, concepts of operations and Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures (TTPs) for planning and executing Civ-Mil operations FMCM project success will be dependent on its ability to achieve the following impact: Ÿ Improved information sharing between civil and military participants in Humanitarian Assistance/Disaster Response operations Ÿ Improved understanding of and planning to support Civ- Mil information exchange requirements Ÿ Reduced timeline for Civ-Mil planning Ÿ Releasable and reusable instructions and agreed standards (e.g., TTPs and Joining, Membership and Exit Instructions) for use during Civ-Mil operations Ÿ Leveraging of instructions and standards to identify Civ- Mil interoperability issues The FMCM workshop was designed as a User Discovery Event (UDE) to attain independent user feedback through a structured-facilitated seminar approach to examine associated tenets, principles, processes, checklists and decision support tools under development. Users are defined as the ultimate consumers of the FMCM project results. The UDE provided an opportunity for FMCM project subject matter experts to address proposed solutions, assess credible and relevant areas of development, and contribute critical thought providing meaningful feedback to the FMCM project Solution Developers. As a discovery type workshop the UDE employed a concept development assessment seminar game-like methodology. The methodology was selected based on the level of maturity (early conceptualization and shaping) of the solutions under examination and the desire to influence future product development based on user feedback. Workshop participants possessed experience in: Military-tomilitary, military-to-civilian and civilian-to-military information sharing; Combined/Joint Task Force operational planning and operations; cooperation, collaboration and coordination required for military support to civilian partners during Humanitarian Assistance / Disaster Relief / International Disaster Relief missions. Result highlights Ÿ FMN employment enhances a military coalition's ability to respond in a coherent and consistent manner to civilian organization requests for information and support. Ÿ Civilian organization processes, procedures and activities are based on their own desired results and may not be consistent at different nodes of the same organization. Ÿ No single materiel or non-materiel solution will address all Military to Civilian relationships. Ÿ Inclusion of organization-independent civilian information exchange requirements, as a planning factor section within FMN instructions, will enhance ability of military planner to address military to civilian relationships. Ÿ The FMN Option Z relationship will be unique for each civilian organization (The NATO FMN Concept defined four FMN capability levels: Service Providers (Option A), Network Extensions (Option B), and Hosted Users (Option C) that must comply with FMN security and standardisation rules; and other entities (Option Z) that are not required to comply.). Ÿ Key to achieve the train as you intend to operate paradigm is inclusion of scenarios that address civilian to military organization relationships in exercises. Ÿ Military training events must include civilian participation to truly train the way we operate. Ÿ Use of actual civilian organization role players in military exercises will be critical to ensure realistic training and education. Ÿ Not all civilian organizations conduct activities are under the United Nations umbrella for coordination of humanitarian assistance and disaster relief. Ÿ The most significant challenges to civilian-to-military information exchange are policy and risk assessment, not technology. Ÿ The most significant opportunity to improve civilian and military information exchange relationships occurs before a crisis during steady state (deliberate planning) exercises and training venues. Ÿ The military exercise construct must support civilian training objectives. Ÿ Civilian organizations are resource constrained: Military funding may be required to facilitate civilian exercise participation. The workshop results set the stage for continued execution of the project. They helped refine the construct of the key project deliverables, a mission thread package and a comprehensive filed guide book. They will be used to prepare for the next Solution Developer s Workshop in Rome the first week of February

13 Multinational Examination of the United States Joint Concept for Robotic and Autonomous Systems Workshop Lieutenant Colonel Walt Hattemer, USA Air Force, Joint Concept Development Division, JS J7 Global advances in Robotics and Autonomous Systems (RAS) technology present military forces an opportunity to significantly enhance capabilities and sustain their ability to maintain operational advantage in the future. The United States Joint Staff is developing a Joint Concept for Robotic and Autonomous Systems (JCRAS) to guide future joint force development by describing a vision for the employment of Robotic and Autonomous Systems. The workshop conducted at the International Concept Development and Experimentation Conference was a critical examination and review of a mature draft that had been through two formal assessments. The objective of the workshop was to solicit feedback from an international community of military and civilian RAS experts and obtain actionable recommendations to strengthen the joint concept prior to commencing formal coordination processes to obtain the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff s approval. The workshop consisted of plenary sessions with focused group discussion on major sections of the concept. Additionally, electronic polling was used to gather specific feedback on major themes and ideas presented in JCRAS. Discussion and polling resulted in a host of useful observations and recommendations over the course of the workshop. The conference group endorsed the future operating environment, opportunities of future RAS, the central idea and supporting precepts, and capability development actions as outlined in the draft cconcept. The group provided several insights to improve the flow of ideas and overall synergy of the document. Their recommended improvements will be incorporated in final developmental activity prior to formal coordination. The most significant feedback centered on multi-national interoperability which had not been strongly considered during development of the concept. Interoperability was a recurring theme and the group identified several places that could be used to bolster the importance of synchronizing force development with partner and Allied nations. The concept describes a future environment characterized by eroding military advantage, based on increased lethality and sophistication, congested operating environments, and an accelerated pace of operations. At the same time, technological advances are enabling more capable RAS that can be used to provide several military advantages. The group endorsed this description of the future environment but identified the need to develop material science as a key technology advancement area for RAS. The group also suggested re-casting and broadening the concept of cloud robotics, clarifying the concept of continuum of autonomy, ensuring consistency in the usage of semi-autonomous and fully autonomous throughout the document, and refining discussions on machine cognition. The operational challenge of JCRAS is how to employ RAS for operational advantage and is supported by a central idea that is focused on Human-RAS teams, leveraging autonomy as a key enabler, and developing innovative concepts of operation. The working group provided a general endorsement of the operational challenge, central idea, and solution set presented in the draft concept. The participants suggested that the concept provide a more detailed description of Human-RAS teams and clarify discussion on future concepts of RAS deterrence. This section uses two vignettes to illustrate potential future employment of Human- RAS teams. The current vignettes were not viewed as a compelling addition to the concept as written and there were a number of suggestions to re-craft and reorganize the vignettes to more clearly to illustrate central themes of the concept. The concept influences future force development by articulating eleven capability development areas that are designed to enable development of Human-RAS teams and leverage technology development. The workshop provided a general endorsement of future capabilities and risks section of the draft concept. A key area for improvement was multinational development and the concept will be improved to highlight this area. Also, there were suggestions to expand discussions on personnel development and improve linkages between flexibility and modularity for operational advantage. Overall, the workshop was very successful and provided the writing team with several actionable recommendations to take forward into final development. The insightful recommendations and comments will strengthen the ideas within JCRAS and result in a comprehensive concept that will have implications across joint and international force development. 12

14 The 2015 International Concept Development & Experimentation Conference Report November 2015 Conference Conclusion This year was the first to have four different workshops / seminars for the delegates to choose. To determine if the conference was successful, attendees participated in the electronic exit polling using E-Polling keypads. These were the results of the survey: 1. The Conference increased your level of understanding of CD&E. Strongly Agree 25% Agree 54% Neutral 16% Disagree 5% Strongly Disagree 0% 5. Please evaluate the CD&E Conference agenda. Excellent 13% Very Good 42% Good 38% Neutral 4% Fair 2% Poor 2% 2. The Conference briefings were of sufficient quality to aid your national or organization CD&E programme. Strongly Agree 31% Agree 50% Neutral 16% Disagree 1% Strongly Disagree 2% 6. Please evaluate the topics chosen for the plenary session. Excellent 10% Very Good 36% Good 41% Neutral 10% Fair 2% Poor 2% 3. The Conference benefited your professional development. Strongly Agree 27% Agree 60% Neutral 9% Disagree 2% Strongly Disagree 2% 7. From your perspective, how do you rate the 2015 CD&E Conference overall? Excellent 26% Very Good 48% Good 22% Neutral 2% Fair 1% Poor 0% 4. There were adequate networking opportunities throughout the Conference. Strongly Agree 45% Agree 40% Neutral 12% Disagree 3% Strongly Disagree 0% From the polling results, it is clear to see that the majority of delegates find this conference useful for their professional development and networking opportunities. All conference objectives were achieved. This conference remains the single international Concept Development and Experimentation fora supporting collaboration, education, networking, and multinational input to current CD&E projects. 13

15 CD&E 365 Enhancing NATO s Concept Development and Experimentation Potential CD&E 365 Administrators: CDR Henning Rathke (DEU-N) 1(757) natocde365@act.nato.int Ms. Penny Loukakos 1 (757) Penny.Loukakos@act.nato.int BRINGING NATO CD&E to YOU For additional Concept Development information, please contact: Wg CDR Gordon Pendleton (GBR-F) 1 (757) gordon.pendleton@act.nato.int For additional Operational Analysis information, please contact: Mr. Johannes De Nijs 1 (757) Johannes.Denijs@act.nato.int For additional Experimentation information, please contact: Mr. David Beckwith (NIC) 1 (757) david. beckwith@act. nato. int Access CD&E 365 0n NATO s TRANSNET at 14

16 A N LL IO T IE A D C M R O M M A N D TR N A FO S NATO ACT CD&E Conference Website: THE JOINT STAFF Director of Management Joint Staff Support Services Office Graphics Norfolk & Suffolk Branch January 2016 Approved for Public Release 15