Getting Ahead of the Curve:

Transcription

1 Getting Ahead of the Curve: Operational Insights at the Dawn of the Fifth-Gen Fighter Era By Steve Ganyard (Colonel, USMC, Ret.) David Chip Berke (LtCol, USMC, Ret.) WHITE PAPER MAR 2018 Amid all the fanfare around the arrival of fifth-generation fighters in US and allied air forces, it is a mistake to overlook the technological, cultural, operational, and defense industrial disruption these jets will cause as they integrate with legacy aircraft fleets. Based on insights from recent operational experience with US fifth-generation aircraft, however, Avascent believes there are ways to speed up integration, improve the performance of new as well as legacy fourth-generation fighters, save money, avascent.com DC LONDON PARIS OTTAWA TOKYO and open the door to new defense-industrial models.

2 4th vs 5th-Gen. Countries Included: United States, Australia, Israel, NATO, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan INVENTORY , ,344 1,998 4th-5th Generation Fighters, Production Timelines, and Manufacturers Fighter Generation 4th 5th F-15 Tornado F-16 F/A-18 AV-8B Su-27 MiG-29 Mirage 2000 F-15E JAS 39 Gripen F-CK-1 F-22 Eurofighter Rafale F/A-18E/F FA-50 F Top Manufacturers 2018 Inventory Lockheed Martin* 2231 Boeing* 2073 Eurofighter Consortium 426 Dassault 407 Panavia 175 Other Manufacturers Aerospace Industrial Development Corporation Current Inventory vs Future Deliveries by Manufacturer 2018 Inventory 101 United Aircraft Corporation 80 Saab 28 Korean Aerospace Industries 20 *Lockheed and Boeing numbers include local production by MHI and TAI of F-16s, F-15s, and F-2s TOTAL SPENDING* US Allies 2018 $425M $9,024M $2,100M $2,550M 2022 $2,040M $9,400M $2,380M $7,990M Lockheed Martin Boeing Eurofighter Consortium Dassault Panavia Korean Aerospace Industries Saab Others Contractor Not Yet Selected 2027 $0M $8,460M $3,485M $5,452M F-35 F-22 F-16 F/A-18E/F F/A-18 F-15 Eurofighter F-15E Mirage 2000 Tornado AV-8B Rafale F-CK-1 MiG-29 JAS 39 Gripen FA-50 Su Inventory 584 Future Fighter Programs KF-X Fighter 4. Late-2020s/Early 2030s TF-X 4. Late-2020s/Early 2030s F-3 Next Generation Fighter Mid-2030s 2208 Eurofighter Replacement Program Mid-2030s F/A-XX Early-2030s Next Generation Air Dominance 6th Gen. Late-2020s *Does not include modification, development, or associated services 2

3 GETTING AHEAD OF THE CURVE INSIGHT 1 Closing the Generation Gap CHALLENGE For the next 40 to 50 years, Western air forces will operate jets with Cold War roots, variants of the F-15, F-16, F-18 and Eurofighter designs. Acquisition and operational costs will force a mix of fifth-generation and legacy fourthplus fighter fleets around the world. This transition will take far longer than is commonly appreciated and will degrade overall military capabilities unless addressed concurrently with the fifth-generation fleet introduction. Even in the US inventory, fifth-generation jets such as F-35 and F-22 represent a tiny percentage of the total aircraft inventory, about 1.8% in fiscal 2018, but will consume a growing portion of defense outlays. Currently, the United States has 229 F-35s and 186 F-22s. Recently, Israel declared its F-35s combat ready, the first foreign partner to do so. 1 By 2021, all of the F-35 program s partner nations will be flying the jet. While there will be a quantum jump in individual aircraft capability, the arrival of fifth-generation jets will upset the fiscal and bureaucratic status quo. Indeed, the fifth-generation era will be marked by internal changes mandated by operating fewer aircraft that not only cost more, but have new maintenance requirements like real-time supply chains, high-stakes software updates and stealth coatings. New communications systems, as an example, must be backward-integrated quicker than expected with not only fourth-generation aircraft but ground and naval forces and even civilian networks that are evolving faster than military systems. Bridging this generation gap demands focus beyond just new aircraft implementation. What is required is a persistent scan for targeted technological and systems investments that will offer as much economic and strategic yield as each fifth-generation aircraft is added to the flight line. Advantage will accrue to the country that leverages the advantages of fourth- and fifth-generation integration rather that stove-piping the new technologies surrounding fifth-generation fighters Copyright AVASCENT 2018

4 INSIGHT CHALLENGE 2 Confronting New Complexity Fifth-generation jets will produce unprecedented data and consume more bandwidth (and power) than prior designs, creating a ripple effect throughout the military aviation ecosystem. This directly relates to cross-generation information and data sharing, to ground maintenance, as well as supporting new onboard electronic warfare (EW), cyber, and directed-energy weapons. Fifth-generation maintenance and sustainment will be its own area of high-performance operations. Beyond the physical, with over 8 million lines of code on the F-35, software management will be a discriminating advantage or liability for nations that can reconceive combat aircraft support. These new jets will also wield new non-kinetic weapons. In the years ahead, electronic warfare, directed energy and cyber capabilities on fifth-generation jets will be as operationally important as the advent of GPS-guided munitions on fourth-generation jets was in the 1990s. On the ground, however, these new capabilities will necessitate a new level of support for software patches and upgrades integrated with the aircraft operating system. Technical expertise in forward-deployed scenarios will be critical, as will ensuring adequate on-the-ground network bandwidth so the latest mission packages can be received and uploaded to an aircraft deployed in an austere or contested environment. 3 Training for Trust Fighter pilots must reorient their flying and develop new levels of trust in technology to take advantage of a fifth-generation aircraft s full sensor suite and non-kinetic capabilities. As a result, preparation and training for these new missions will change, moving more and more to the virtual domain. The military aircraft cockpit is becoming a fully simulated view of the operating environment as weapons take advantage of evolving non-kinetic technologies. The value of effective in-flight simulation then will depend less on recreating mechanical and physical movement and more on digital rendition. During such training, fifth-generation pilots will need to learn to listen to the aircraft with greater faith than any prior generation of aviator. Learning to trust what the airplane sees and says will be a big hurdle at first, but one that must be quickly overcome with specific training and experience. Pilots flying legacy aircraft will also have to trust what a fifth-generation pilot is seeing is in fact real even if they are not sharing the same view of the operating environment. It is entirely possible that in, for example, urban operations that the critical close-air support role played by the A-10 is supplanted by close-in cyber strafing runs by an F-35. Familiarity and experience is crucial to developing trust in the air, which will have to be built in new ways for the fifth-generation era. 4

5 INSIGHT GETTING AHEAD OF THE CURVE CHALLENGE 4 Strengthening Networks A fifth-generation aircraft is just one node in a network that will be made up of mostly legacy aircraft. Some of these will be aerial, sea or ground enablers perhaps even unmanned that amplify the battle network s effectiveness. The network s strength depends on existing and new airborne enablers beyond air dominance and strike missions. As an example, in maritime operations, the UK and Norway are beginning to operate the P-8, an aircraft with substantial network and communications capability. Sharing a high volume of data and sensor information from fifth-generation aircraft to legacy fighters, as well as other ground, sea and air platforms, poses unprecedented challenges along with real opportunities to use innovative approaches to integration. So far, this is a problem that is being tackled, with efforts like the US Air Force still seeking a digital link between the F-22 and F-35, as well as legacy platforms using the Link-16 system. 2 In a further expansion of this concept, the armed services operating the receiving end of the transmission can spearhead such development efforts Fostering Defense-Industrial Concepts The software-intensive fifthgeneration era points a way toward new defense industrial concepts. To get as much out of new aircraft and the existing inventory, industry has the potential to lead the development of an allied app-like software exchange. Emulating commercial-sector mobile software distribution, this approach creates channels that traditional aerospace companies and new suppliers, such as commercial machine-learning software firms, can access. Having a diverse pool of vetted software and services providers increases the likelihood of developing a killer app. For government, this approach allows land and sea forces to seek out user-oriented solutions for operational needs that are not otherwise a priority for the fighter community. As an example, an F-22 could be a vital resource for a Navy SEAL team searching for a high-value target in an urban area. In such a case, the team would be using an app requested by the special operations community so that an overhead fifth-generation fighter can coordinate the data and sensor feeds being gathered by numerous small unmanned systems deployed in the hunt. As well, the jet is able to automatically pass along intelligence captured at the site for subsequent targeting. As legacy aircraft continue to add more software-defined systems and weapons, this approach will be relevant for older jets and possibly land and sea platforms, as well. 5 Copyright AVASCENT 2018

6 CONCLUSION Moving Faster, Avoiding Pitfalls While it may feel like there are years, if not decades, to ease into the fifth-generation era, it is here now. Though fifth-generation jets will be added at a gradually increasing pace during the coming decade, their impact will be felt immediately in the air and on the ground. How smoothly this transition proceeds, and how disruptive it ultimately is for militaries and defense companies, will depend on the kind of initiative shown by industry and government now to get ahead of the curve. To that end, there are specific steps that can be taken during the next 12 to 24 months: Increase speed to market for datalinks and information assurance solutions for fifth-generation and legacy communications, particular receiving end -driven systems Develop cross-generation training and simulation activities through tailored technology development programs Assess defense-industrial opportunities around legacy and fifth-generation aircraft fleet training and support through increasing use of virtual simulation and environments 6

7 GETTING AHEAD OF THE CURVE About the Authors Steve Ganyard (Colonel, USMC, Ret.) is an Avascent Principal and President of Avascent Global Advisors. Steve s civilian and military career includes experience in a variety of highlevel leadership, managerial and staff positions dealing with complex technologies, strategic planning, foreign policy, intelligence, homeland security and global operations. As a Marine Corps fighter pilot, Mr. Ganyard received two decorations for combat valor and held command positions at both the Squadron and Air Group level, amassing more than 4,200 flight hours in twelve different types of tactical aircraft. At Avascent, he helps clients with international market strategy development and execution, political strategy and risk management, as well as business development and capture support. His primary focus is on Asian markets. For more information, contact: steve.ganyard@avascent.com. David Chip Berke (LtCol, USMC, Ret.) is an advisor with Avascent Global Advisors assisting US and allied efforts on the operational, training, and defense industrial challenges associated with transitioning to fifth-generation fighters. One of the most experienced fighter pilots in the world today and the only pilot ever to fly the F/A-18 Hornet, F-16 Fighting Falcon, F-22 Raptor, and F-35B Lightning II operationally, Mr. Berke has extensive operational, leadership, and training experience flying fifth-generation aircraft. He led the first tests and established tactics to integrate fourth- and fifthgeneration aircraft as the Commander of the Raptor Division at the Air Force s 422 Test and Eval squadron. He also served as the Commanding Officer of the Marine Corps first F-35 squadron, and was the first operational pilot qualified in the F-35B. His training experience includes developing and implementing the first syllabus for US and International Lightning II pilots and serving as the TOPGUN Training Officer, the senior instructor at the US Navy s Fighter Weapons School. About Avascent Avascent is the leading strategy and management consulting firm serving clients operating in government-driven markets. Working with corporate leaders and financial investors, Avascent delivers sophisticated, fact-based solutions in the areas of strategic growth, value capture, and mergers and acquisition support. With deep sector expertise, analytically rigorous consulting methodologies, and a uniquely flexible service model, Avascent provides clients with the insights and advice they need to succeed in dynamic customer environments. AVASCENT WASHINGTON DC 1615 L Street NW, Suite 1200 Washington, DC Tel: +1 (202) LONDON Portland House, Bressenden Place London SW1E 5RS Tel: +44 (0) PARIS 59, rue des Petits Champs Paris Tel: +33 (0) OTTAWA Unit 200, 440 Laurier Avenue West Ottawa, ON K1R 7X6 Tel: +1 (613) TOKYO 4F Yaesu Dori Bldg, Nihonbashi Chuo-ku, Tokyo Tel: +81 (80) avascent.com 7 Copyright AVASCENT 2018