U.S. Army Analysis & Center for Army Analysis (CAA) Overview

Transcription

1 U.S. Army Analysis & Center for Army Analysis (CAA) Overview Dr. Wm. Forrest Crain Director, CAA

2 What kind of analysis are we talking about? Ends: Analyses as part of the Army and Joint leaders decision-making processes to: Organize, man, train, equip, sustain, station, and resource the Army Inform policy decisions and conduct strategic, operational, and tactical operations Ways: Assist decision makers in solving complex problems by producing analysis and logical reasoning necessary to inform and underpin those critical decisions. Assessments Force structure and force generation Force capability requirements Wargaming and campaign analysis Risk analysis Resource analysis (stationing, acquisition portfolios, etc.) Geospatial analysis Means: Operations Research Systems Analysis (ORSA) Military: Functional Area 49 officers Civilian: Career Program 36, Series 1515 analysts Contract : Fully-Funded R&D Center, Academia, Commercial Decision Support to the Operational & Institutional Army 2

3 Acquisition 5% Other TRADOC 6% (minus TRAC) 7% The Army Analytic Community Guard/Res 1% FORSCOM 1% CAA 6% MEDCOM 1% TRAC 15% CAA TRAC AMSAA Test & Eval AMC The largest analytic community in DOD and Government > 2200 Mil and Civ Joint 7% AMSAA 7% HQDA Joint TRADOC Other Chart shows ORSA positions-- Military Functional Area 49 and GS Series Many other Army civilians perform analysis in job series such as 301, 801, 1520, 1521, 1529, 1530, & HQDA 12% AMC (minus AMSAA) 15% Test & Eval 17% Acquisition Guard/Res MEDCOM FORSCOM Army analysis community is very decentralized. Study houses provide specialized resources for the whole Army.

4 Test and Evaluation Major Army Analysis Organizations Theater Force Level CAA Theater Warfighting in a Joint/Combined Context. Army-wide systems and issues. TRAC Battlefield Operations - Organizational Design & Force Effectiveness. Small Units up to Corps Small Units System & Technology Materiel Systems Performance Analysis Logistics Systems & Network Performance Analysis Forward Support Cell at AMC Headquarters AMSAA ATEC CAA, TRAC, and AMSAA collaborate to provide the Army an effective, responsive, in-house analysis capability. ATEC provides essential information to acquisition decision-makers. The Army calls on RAND, USMA, DUSA-TE, DASA-CE, USAMAA, and others to answer a variety of questions. Study resources are managed by the Army G-8, Army Studies Program Management Office.

5 Center for Army Analysis CAA is a Field Operating Agency of the Deputy Chief of Staff, G-8. Vision: CAA is recognized authority on the independent analysis of land warfare interests in a joint and combined context. Mission: CAA conducts decision support analysis across the spectrum of conflict, in a Joint, Interagency, Intergovernmental, and Multinational (JIIM) context to inform critical senior level decisions for current and future national security issues Goethals Road Fort Belvoir, VA XO:

6 The Center for Army Analysis Education Doctorate 6% Masters 68% Bachelors 26% Director, CAA Deputy Director for Modeling and Simulation Chief of Staff Technical Director Simulation Proponent & School Chief Information Officer (CIO) Campaign Wargaming Force Strategy M&S Strategy and Resources Strategic Analysis Integration Division Deputy Chief of Staff Strategic Wargaming Campaign Analysis Operations Analysis Resource Analysis G-Staff Strategic Studies Deployment & Enablers Forward Analytic Support Team (FAST) Strategic Partners 6

7 CAA Forward Engagement

8 CAA Study Program By Sponsor (Nov 2012 Current) Over the last 5 years: 52% of studies, primarily programmatic analyses, conducted in support of HQDA, particularly HQDA G3/5/7 & G8. 17% of studies, primarily OPLAN-related analyses, conducted in support of combatant commands. 16% of studies, primarily current operations related, conducted in support of deployed joint/combined headquarters. 6% of studies, a mix of OPLAN and current operations related, conducted in support of Army Service component commands. 9% of studies conducted in support of other Army, DoD, Joint organizations. ACOM: ASCC: CCMD: DCS: Army Command Army Service component command Combatant Command Deputy Chief of Staff DRU: JCS: HQDA: OPLAN: (Army) Direct Reporting Unit Joint Chiefs of Staff Headquarters, Department of the Army Operation Plan CAA s study program focuses on the major issues facing Senior Army Leaders in both the operational and institutional Army. Supporting both the Operational and Institutional Force

9 Demand 83,721 (28%) 88,333 (30%) 86,269 (29%) 38,045 (13%) 83,919 (36%) 72,885 (31%) 75,499 (33%) 55,584 (33%) 49,457 (30%) 62,655 (37%) 37,088 (26%) 43,936 (30%) 64,715 (44%) 18,496 (20%) 15,636 (17%) CAA s Force Structure Analysis Support for Strategic Analysis Current Operations Homeland Surge Events Other Events Confirmation Of Apportioned Forces Capability To Achieve Campaign Objectives Campaign Analysis Campaign Outcomes That Impact 350, , , ,577 Total: 296,368 US Army: 258,323 Enabler Analysis TAA Surge-3 Base Case Force Structure Populations 231, ,303 USMC BCT EAB ENABLERS THEATER ENABLERS TAA US Army Case G055-12June ,811 Foundational Activities Today +10yrs +20yrs Surge Scenarios Apportionment & CONOPS Quantification of Supporting Enablers POPULATION 200, , ,000 50,000 0 Phase II/III Corps, 4 Div, 18 BCT Phase IV a CAMPAIGN DAYS 1 Corps, 3 Div, 12 BCT 167,696 1 Corps, 2 Div, 7 BCT 147, ,739 1 Corps, 1 Div, 4 BCT 57,536 Phase IV b (63%) ,393 91, UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO Surge Scenarios Force Flow Apportioned Units Arrival Schedule Force Generation Analysis Demand For Units (Apportioned & Enabler SRCs) For Each Surge Scenario Deployment Analysis Rotational Depth: Supply of Forces Necessary to Meet All Scenarios Deployment Demands Rotational Utilization: Capacity of Fixed Supply to Meet All Scenario Deployment Demands 9

10 Completed or Planned Analysis, Wargames and TTXs Conducted or Supported by the Center for Army Analysis (FY13-18) FHA/DR Plan, 15 (EUCOM) Tech Near-Peer, 13 (AMC) Sc 3.1, (OSD/JS) Sc 3.0, 14 (OSD/JS) Sc 7, 15 (HQDA) Sc 7, 16 (OSD/JS -sponsored) Third Party Intervention, 17 (NGIC) Reg. Align. For. 14 (HQDA) Sust. Read. Mod. 15 (HQDA) LRRDPP-GC, 16 (HQDA) DSD-SC, 16 (HQDA) NATO-Fires, 16 (DoD) Blue Horizons, 17 (CSAF) OPLAN/CuOps (sponsor) Policy/Strategy (sponsor) Def. Planning Scen. (sponsor) OPLAN Dev, 15 (EUCOM) OPLAN Dev, 16 (EUCOM) OPLAN Multi CCMD, 16 (EUCOM) 2 x OPLAN Dev, 16, 17 (USAREUR) Foreign Hum Asst, 16 (EUCOM) * OPLAN Capstone, 17 (EUCOM) 2 x Posture Ph 0-1 EUCOM, 16,17 (HQDA) OPLAN Analysis, 18 (CENTCOM) Resistance Ops, 17 (SOCEUR) Sr LDR Readiness Forum, 17 (CSA) Ph 0-1 Theater Camp Plan, 17 (EUCOM) Resistance Ops, 18 (SOCEUR) Modernization, 18 (AFC TF) Sr LDR Readiness Forum, 18 (CSA) 1 x Afghanistan, 16 (RS) Israel-Palestine, 13 (USSC) 6 x Afghanistan, 05-14(ISAF) 3 x Iraq, (MNF-I) Mali, 14 (USARAF) OPLAN Dev, 13 (PACOM) OPLAN Dev, 14 (PACFLT) OPLAN Synch, 14 (PACOM) OPLAN Synch, 14 (SOCPAC) OPLAN FMS, 14 (PACOM) OPLAN Dev, 15 (PACOM) OPLAN Synch, 15 (PACOM) OPLAN Dev, 15 (USFK) Strat Seminar TTX, 16 (USFK) Resiliency, 16 (PACOM) Strategic Effects, 16 (USARPAC) Dynamic Basing, 16 (PACOM) NEO TTX, 17 (PACOM) Multi Domain Battle 17 (PACOM) OPLAN Analysis, 17 (USFK) Set the Theater, 17 (USARPAC/8TH Army) OPLAN Spt, 17 (USARPAC) Multi Domain Battle 18 (PACOM) Ongoing/Upcoming CAA has the current capability, expertise, and experience to provide analysis through wargaming, simulation, and Table Top Exercises (TTXs) to support GCCs, ASCCs, Operational Joint Commands, the Army, and others.

11 CAA s Institutional Analysis Stationing Analysis ASA-IEE European Infrastructure Consolidation Base Realignment & Closure (BRAC) Reimbursable Tenants on Army Installations Maintain the tools, data, and expertise to conduct stationing analysis to support senior leader decisions Includes both operational and institutional organizations Analyzes installation s ability to support DoD and Army strategic goals HQDA ABCT Stationing (G-3/5/7) SFAB Stationing (G-3/5/7) Enduring Bases Policy & Doctrine (ACSIM) Institutional Analysis HQDA Mission Training Complex Analysis (G-3/5/7) Analysis of Alternatives (AoA) Process Improvement (G-8) Impact of Sequestration (G- 8) Communications Interoperability Capability Appraisal Table (G-3/5/7) Arlington National Cemetery Projects Maintain the tools, data, and expertise to conduct institutional analysis to support senior leader decisions for current and future national security issues. Fuel Distribution & Storage IMCOM Manpower Rqts Component Analysis for Rate of Entry Warrior Transition Unit Forecast Model Update

12 Delivered Analyses: High Impact Studies Year Recipient Study Impact 2015 G-3/5/7 & CSA Coach s Cards CSA used at CJCS Nov 15 wargame; operational risk assessment 2015 G-3/5/7 & CSA Sustainable Readiness CSA briefed it at Senior Leader Readiness Forum 2015 DCG, USARPAC OPLAN Fratricide Identified problems and solutions for force structure and sourcing of simultaneous plans 2016 DepSecDef Scenario 7 Start Conditions Force posture and budget implications 2016 DepSecDef NATO Fires NATO strategy and OSD program 2016 VCSA AoA Process Improvement Reduced time, improved senior leader decision opportunities 2016 G-3/5/7 TAA (Campaigns, Early Deployers, Enablers, Force Generation) 2016 G-3/5/7 & CSA Scenario 7 Campaign CSA s assessment of risk Shape of the Army, primarily enablers and COMPO mix for early deployers; changes based on emerging threats 2016 G-3/5/7 Simultaneity TTX G-3/5/7 used at CJCS Sep 16 wargame; operational risk assessment 2016 G-3/5/7 & CSA Operational Demand Analysis Input to CSA s Senior Leader Readiness Forum 2016 G-3/5/7 & VCSA LRRDPP-GC VCSA briefed at DMAG 2016 G-3/5/7 Generating Force NCFA recommended that Congress require it 2016 G-3/5/7 Military Value Analysis Stationing priorities for gains/losses 2016 G-8 Nat l Com. on the Future of the Army Impacted many of NCFA s 63 recommendations 2016 ASA(IE&E) Non-Army Tenants Identified $millions in potential gains for the Army budget 2016 ASA(IE&E) Installation Readiness Analysis Impact on II PEG priorities 2016 CIO/G-6 Operational Data Improved JMDs and data systems for JTFs 2016 CoS, OCAR Reserve PACs Revision to RPAC structure 2016 DCOM, EUCOM EUCOM Wargame I Plan development 2016 J5, EUCOM EUCOM Wargame II Plan development 2016 DCOM, PACOM PACOM Resiliency Plan development 2016 DCOM, PACOM PACOM Dynamic Basing Plan development 2016 Cdr, USARPAC & SCOUSARPAC SCO TTX $400M in budget; cross-domain fight 2016 Cdr, RESOLUTE SPT RESOLUTE SPT Wargame Commander employed for Afghan Program of Record, and strategic input for next administration 2016 CENTCOM J2 Data Science for Network Prosecution Identified $10B in illicit funds 2017 CSA Sustainable Readiness 2017 Informed CSA Comments to GOs at SLRF 2017 CDR, USAREUR Landpower Fight in Europe Wargame 2017 Insights for continued OPLAN development As of 21 Aug 17 12

13 Discussion 13

14 U.S. Army Modeling and Simulation Office The U.S. Army Modeling and Simulation Office (AMSO) is the Army s Enterprise-level organization for modeling and simulation policy, coordination and workforce management. Vision: An Army that effectively and efficiently employs modeling and simulation capabilities and tools, within and across all Army organizations, in support of both the Operating and Generating Forces. Mission: The Army Modeling Simulation Office Develops the strategy and policy for Army Modeling and Simulation Enterprise Executes effective governance and resource management through leadership and synchronization Leads coordination of the Army modeling and simulation enterprise and crosscommunity areas including Joint, Intergovernment, Interagency, and Multinational environments, Industry and Academia Trains, Educates and Manages the Army Analysis, Modeling & Simulation M&S Workforce (Military and Civilian) Coordinates and Synchronizes $11.9B over the POM & executes lifecycle management for 550 FA57 officers and 2300 CP36 DACs

15 Synchronization of Army Analytic Community (SAAC) CAA led, monthly, forward-looking synchronization meeting with senior-level leaders from across Army analytic organizations to identify gaps, redundancies, and collaboration opportunities. Participating organizations include: TRAC TRADOC Analysis Center Fort Leavenworth, KS AMSAA U.S. Army Materiel Systems Analysis Activity Aberdeen Proving Ground, MD USAWC U.S. Army War College Carlisle Barracks, PA ARL SLAD U.S. Army Research Laboratory Aberdeen Proving Ground, MD Survivability/Lethality Analysis Directorate AMC FSC U.S. Army Materiel Command Forward Support Cell Redstone Arsenal, AL ASPMO Army Study Program Management Office Pentagon, Arlington, VA SMDC/ARSTRAT U.S. Army Space and Missile Defense Command/ Huntsville, AL U.S. Army Forces Strategic Command AMSAA Strat Partner AMSAA Strategic Partner to Assistant Secretary of Pentagon, Arlington, VA to ASA(ALT) the Army for Acquisition, Logistics, and Technology G-1/PR Deputy Chief of Staff, G-1, Plans & Resources Pentagon, Arlington, VA G-8/CIA Deputy Chief of Staff, G-8, Capabilities Integration Crystal City, Arlington, VA G-8/FDA Deputy Chief of Staff, G-8, Warfighting Analysis Fort Belvoir, VA G-8/PA&E Deputy Chief of Staff, G-8, Program Analysis Pentagon, Arlington, VA and Evaluation USMA U.S. Military Academy West Point, NY ARCIC U.S. Army Capabilities Integration Center Joint Base Langley-Eustis, VA ARCYBER U.S. Army Cyber Command Fort Belvoir, VA IDA Institute for Defense Analyses Mark Center, Alexandria, VA RAND RAND Corporation (Research And Development) Arlington, VA MITRE MITRE Corporation McLean, VA CAA Center for Army Analysis Fort Belvoir, VA Analysis Support Focused on the Institutional Army CAA Forward Analytic Support Team (FAST)

16 CAA s Operations Analysis Operations Analysis Division Data Analytics: -Advancing Analytics and Metrics to Support Defensive Cyberspace Operations -Automation Enabling Analysis -Media Narrative Propagation -Support to USCENTCOM Humanitarian Operations Support: -Population Displacement Model -Post-Conflict Return Migration Wargames/Table-Top Exercises: -USARPAC TTX -EUCOM Foreign Humanitarian Assistance/Disaster Relief -RS Force 1400 Wargame Geospatial Analysis -Reachback support to deployed commands Select, Train, Deploy and Manage Analysts: - DoD Operational Data Tiger Team Lead - Current Operations Meetings - Deploying Analyst Course - Deployed Analysts at RS AAG and OGP - Strategic Partners at USPACOM and USEUCOM/USAFRICOM Collaboration Assessment Support/Training for: -Army Security Cooperation (DAMO-SSI) -ARNORTH -Horn of Africa -Special Operations Forces in Afghanistan -Asymmetric Warfare Group -SOCCENT Country Assessments -CAA Strategic Planning Doctrine Development Survey Analysis -Southern Philippines Public Perception Survey (USAID) -USAFRICOM -ARSOUTH -SOCCENT NATO System Analysis and Studies Panels: 110 Irregular Warfare and Operations Assessment 111 Collection and Management of Data for Analysis Support to Operations 16