Headquarters U.S. Air Force

Transcription

1 Headquarters U.S. Air Force The AFCAIG Process - - Service Cost Positions Mr. Grant McVicker Mr. Scott Adamson Navy Cost Symposium 17 September

2 What I ll Talk About SAF/FMC & AFCAA Missions Organizational Structure AFCAA Roles & Responsibilities Air Force Cost Analysis Improvement Group (AFCAIG)/Service Cost Position (SCP) Process 2

3 Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary (Cost & Economics)- SAF/FMC SAF/FMC Mission To provide expert cost, economic, and financial decision support to the Air Force, DoD and Congress, thereby enhancing Air Force warfighting capabilities and maximizing available resources. Air Force Cost Analysis Agency Mission To provide objective cost analyses, estimates, and information to the Air Force, DoD and Congress, thereby supporting effective stewardship of our nation's resources. 3

4 SAF/FM Organization THE THE ASSISTANT ASSISTANT SECRETARY SECRETARY OF OF THE THE AIR AIR FORCE FORCE (Financial (Financial Management Management & & Comptroller) Comptroller) Honorable Honorable Dr. Dr. Jamie Jamie M. M. Morin Morin SAF/FM SAF/FM DEPUTY DEPUTY ASSISTANT ASSISTANT SECRETARY SECRETARY (Budget) (Budget) Maj Maj Gen Gen Larry Larry Spencer Spencer SAF/FMB SAF/FMB DEPUTY DEPUTY ASSISTANT ASSISTANT SECRETARY SECRETARY (Cost (Cost & & Economics) Economics) Mr. Mr. Richard Richard Hartley Hartley SAF/FMC SAF/FMC DEPUTY DEPUTY ASSISTANT ASSISTANT SECRETARY SECRETARY (Financial (Financial Operations) Operations) Ms. Ms. Audrey Audrey Davis Davis SAF/FMP SAF/FMP DIRECTOR DIRECTOR (Executive (Executive Services) Services) Veda Veda Crawley Crawley SAF/FME SAF/FME 4

5 Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary (Cost & Economics) Center of Expertise Center of Expertise Denver CO Denver CO Mr. Mike Halloran Mr. Mike Halloran Deputy Assistant Secretary for Cost and Economics (SAF/FMC) Deputy Assistant Secretary for Cost and Economics (SAF/FMC) Executive Director (AFCAA) Executive Director (AFCAA) Mr. Hartley, SES-4 Mr. Hartley, SES-4 Associate Deputy Assistant Secretary for Cost and Economics Associate Deputy Assistant Secretary for Cost and Economics Ms. Ranae Woods Ms. Ranae Woods AFCAA AFCAA Technical Director Technical Director VACANT, SL VACANT, SL Economics & Business Economics & Business Management (SAF/FMCE) Management (SAF/FMCE) Mr. Steve Connair Mr. Steve Connair Aircraft & Weapons Aircraft & Weapons Division (AFCAA/FMA) Division (AFCAA/FMA) Mr. Grant McVicker Mr. Grant McVicker Space Programs Space Programs Division (AFCAA/FMS) Division (AFCAA/FMS) Mr. Bill Seeman Mr. Bill Seeman Information Technology Information Technology Division (AFCAA/FMI) Division (AFCAA/FMI) Mr. Justin Moul Mr. Justin Moul Force Analysis Force Analysis Division (AFCAA/FMF) Division (AFCAA/FMF) Col Jay Ducharme Col Jay Ducharme Resources Resources Division (AFCAA/FMR) Division (AFCAA/FMR) Ms. Debbie Cann Ms. Debbie Cann Economics LtCol Deron Hurst Acquisition Liaison Mr. Dave Stem Launch Vehicle LtCol Kolin Rathmann AIS VACANT AFTOC Mr. Richard Snow Integration Division Integration Division (AFCAA/FMCP) (AFCAA/FMCP) VACANT VACANT Business Mgmt Mr. Wally Erck Database/Modeling VACANT Spacecraft LtCol Karen Hurley C3I LtCol Jim Galonsky Factors Mr. Tom Lies Wright-Pat AFB OL Mr. Tom O Hara Los Angeles AFB OL Mr. Paul Cunniff Hanscom AFB OL Mr. Joe Dean Force Structure VACANT Eglin AFB OL Ms. Kristy Golden Peterson AFB OL Ms. Cristina Brims 5

6 AFCAA Personnel Location Overview Hanscom AFB MA DC 7 Peterson AFB CO Wright-Patterson AFB OH Los Angeles AFB CA 5 Eglin AFB FL 6

7 AFCAA Key Responsibilities Independent Cost Estimates (ICEs), Component Cost Analyses (CCAs), and Service Cost Positions (SCPs) for Major Defense Acquisition Programs (MDAP) and Major Automated Information System (MAIS) programs Review and Approve Cost Per Flying Hour (CPFH) Factors Air Force Total Ownership Cost (AFTOC) Database Review Analysis of Alternative (AoA) estimates Cost Analysis Support to HQ USAF and OSD PEO Support Through AFCAA/OLs Conduct cost research, build cost databases, develop cost models 7

8 What is the Air Force CAIG? The Air Force Cost Analysis Improvement Group (AFCAIG) is the corporate review group that validates and recommends the Air Force s s cost estimates for major weapon and information systems. It is composed of functional representatives from across the Secretariat and the Air Staff. 8

9 Who is the AFCAIG? Dep Assistant Sec (Cost and Economics), Chairperson SAF/FMC Director of Budget Investment SAF/FMB Dep Assistant Sec (Mgmt Policy & Program Integration) SAF/AQX Dep Assistant Sec (Policy and Resources) SAF/XCP Logistics AF/A4L Civil Engineering AF/X7C Requirements AF/A5R Test & Evaluation AF/TE Programs Division AF/A8P Manpower, Organization, and Resources AF/A1MP Program Manager Program Executive Officer MAJCOM Reps OSD CAIG Analyst 9

10 A Cost Integrated Product Team (CIPT) is responsible for developing the recommended SCP for presentation to the AFCAIG Meets early in the process to establish ground rules, etc Led by an Agent of the AFCAIG (AFCAA Division Chief) Members include: System Program Office and Product Center Cost Staff (POE) Air Force Cost Analysis Agency (CCA) PEM and PEO Representative OSD CAIG (invited to participate) Works reconciled estimate through the AFCAA/TD prior to presentation to the AFCAIG AFCAIG Chairman recommends an AF SCP to SAF/AQ Formal memo and report How Does the AFCAIG/SCP SAF/AQ makes final determination on the AF SCP Reviewed/approved at an AF Review Board meeting Process Work? 10

11 AFCAIG/SCP Process 11

12 Notional Cost IPT Schedule ACAT 1C Days to AFIPT Task Calculated Date Adjusted Date -180 Official Tasking Message 17-Oct CIPT Kickoff Meeting 31-Oct Draft CARD Submission to CIPT 31-Oct Start Data Collection/Contractor Visits 7-Nov Approval of High Cost/Hish Risk Items 14-Nov Interim Reconciliations 10-Dec Final CARD Due to CIPT 25-Jan Draft POE/CCA Doc Due to CIPT 25-Jan Final Reconciliation 18-Feb Draft SCP 25-Feb Final Docs to CIPT 11-Mar AF CAIG 18-Mar OSD CAIG (if needed) 25-Mar-03 << all formulas are 0 AF Decision Meeting 15-Apr-03 generated from this input 12

13 Some Lessons Learned Involve all parties early in the process Establish ground rules/assumptions and discuss CARD content Set technical baseline as early as possible and establish a common estimating WBS Make sure CSDR Plan is being worked Determine the product and set schedule as early as possible Consider effects of programmatic issues, such as source selection All fact finding must be complete prior to entering competition Understand all parties data sets, data normalization, and models Imperative for comparing results, reconciling differences Work the uncertainty/risk analysis as early as possible AF senior leaders expecting to see uncertainty distribution Establish a standard format for the AFCAIG briefings Allow adequate time at the end of the process to work budget disconnects, issues, excursions, staff SCP to OSD(CAPE), etc 13

14 Improvement Initiatives Implementation of Air Force Policy Directive (AFPD) 65-5 (2008) Program Cost Estimates and Non-Advocate Cost Assessments (NACAs) updated annually In process of re-writing Air Force Instruction , Cost Analysis Guidance and Procedures, which provides direction on implementation of the AFPD 65-5 Stand up of AFCAA Operating Locations Significantly improved our ability to directly interface with program office and product center cost staff Standard templates for AFCAIG briefings, memos, reports (on-going) Senior leaders see consistent information across programs Publication of Air Force Cost Risk and Uncertainty Handbook (2007) and Air Force Cost Analysis Handbook (2008) 14

15 Wrap-Up Questions? 15

16 Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) Why is the Reconciliation held so far ahead of the actual AFCAIG presentation? Gives CIPT time to run lengthy excursions on issue areas we could not reconcile Gives CIPT time to develop top-level crosschecks on the final Service Cost Position If SCP significantly different than the budget, gives CIPT time to do budget drills to fit the program within the approved budget Gives CIPT time to develop a concise, clear briefing for the AFCAIG and OSD CAIG (two very different briefings since the AFCAIG concentrates on the CCA, POE, SCP comparisons vs the OSD CAIG briefing is only the SCP) 16

17 FAQs Is it appropriate for OSD to be present when the Air Force s Cost Position is being developed? OSD is an invited guest during the CIPT process OSD s activities must not drive the SCP schedule No requirement for OSD analyst to share his/her estimate with the CIPT prior to publication of OSD CAIG Report Early indications of OSD analyst s estimating ideas and concerns will be encouraged, however 17

18 FAQs What happens if the CIPT cannot agree on an estimating method? During reconciliation, the CIPT lead (AFCAA Division Chief) will attempt to reach consensus on what the SCP will be before moving on to the next WBS element If the CIPT cannot reach agreement on the best estimating method for a given WBS element, the issue is set aside and presented at the AFCAIG for the chairman to resolve 18

19 What makes the CIPT process run smoothly? Electronic dissemination of information (especially CARD) Early, piece-meal submission (electronic) of documentation Charts prepared for items on the reconciliation agenda Represent the WBS level the program is estimated to Providing for real-time estimate changes at reconciliation Limit revisiting decisions (unless new info provided) FAQs CIPT members must keep their respective chains-of-command apprised of changes as a result of reconciliations Planning for risk assessment throughout the process and performing risk assessment prior to the final reconciliation Data exchange between SPO, AFCAA, and OSD during process 19

20 Cost IPT Lessons Learned Standard Charts Often Scrambling at the end to complete; need to plan for ahead of time Risk Graph with 20%, 50%, 80% CL at minimum (also put point estimate with its associated CL on chart) Budget Comparisons Must be compared with the latest APPROVED budget (i.e. PB04, not the POM, not the latest BCP) SBIR withholds included in compared budget Must do drills to adjust program to fit within current budget and present those to AFCAIG and OSD CAIG Can include additional chart with latest submittal (i.e. with latest BCP) Comparison with last SAR baseline for Nunn-McCurdy evaluation Comparison with any ORD threshold cost/price requirements CCDR Plan Approval Status Potential OSD CAIG Issues Risks the risk analyses may not be covering Sensitivity Analyses- Drivers that could have major impacts to estimate 20

21 Air Force Policy Directive 65-5 Acquiring organization shall build program cost estimates and HQ shall provide non-advocate cost / risk assessments to decision makers Annually * Led by government employees Milestone decisions * IAW defined standards and Nunn-McCurdy breaches procedures Source selections POM initiatives, disconnects, and offsets Joint collaborative efforts highly encouraged Collaborative training, data collection and methods development HQ shall review cost, economic, or business case analyses presented to SECAF, USECAF, CSAF, VCSAF 21 21