Stanislaus County Jail Needs Assessment Update 2013

Transcription

1 Crout Criminal Justice Consulting LLC 1411 Laura Ct. Templeton, CA Stanislaus County Jail Needs Assessment Update 2013 August 2013 Prepared for the County of Stanislaus

2 TABLE OF CONTENTS Section A Elements of the System... A-1 Chart - BSCC Jail Bed Rated Capacities (RC)... A-3 Chart - BSCC Jail Bed Design Capacity (DC)... A-3 Chart - Historic Detention Bed Capacities... A-4 Urgent Service Gap in Adult Criminal Justice System:... A-4 Section B Operational and Design Philosophy... B-1 The Mission Statement... B-1 Procedure... B-1 Stanislaus County Sheriff's Office Organization Chart - Detention Division:... B-2 Section C Current Inmate Population... C-1 Introduction... C-1 Inmate Population by Court Status by Percentage... C-2 Chart - Inmate Population by Court Status by Percentage... C-2 Stanislaus County Adult Detention Facilities Population... C-3 Chart - Stanislaus County Detention By Court Status by Gender by Average Daily Population... C-3 Stanislaus County Adult Detention Facilities Population by Classification... C-4 Chart - Stanislaus County Detention Population by Classification... C-4 Inmates Requiring Mental Health Attention... C-5 Chart - Inmates Requiring Mental Health Attention... C-5 Inmates Requiring Medical Attention... C-6 Chart - Inmates Requiring Mental Health Attention... C-6 Inmate Bookings by Month... C-7 Chart - Inmate Bookings by Month... C-7 Inmates Released Due to Lack of Housing Capacity... C-8 Chart - Early Releases by Court Status by Quarter Due to Lack of Housing Capacity... C-8 Stanislaus County Adult Detention Facilities Population Impact of AB 109 Inmates... C-9 Chart - Impact of AB 109 Inmates... C-9 CROUT CRIMINAL JUSTICE CONSULTING LLC. S ECTION A E LEMENTS OF THE S YSTEM TABLE OF CONTENTS - I

3 Section D Classification of Inmates... D-1 Introduction... D-1 Background:... D-1 Update... D-3 Section E Programs... E-1 Existing Inmate Programs... E-2 Jail Alternatives... E-2 Day Reporting Center (DRC)... E-3 Future Plans... E-3 Section F An Analysis of the Local Trends and Characteristics... F-1 Introduction... F-1 Table - Average Daily Population... F-1 Table - Bookings... F-2 Field Citations... F-3 Table - Cites and Releases August 2009 to August F-4 Table - Inmates Released as a Result of Insufficient Housing Capacity... F-5 Chart Early Releases - Lack of Capacity - Numbers... F-6 Chart - Releases as a Percentage of ADP... F-6 Chart - Average Length of Staff... F-7 Recent Trends Influencing Future Detention Requirements in the County... F-8 Classification Overrides Based on Housing Availability... F-8 Chart - Incidents of Classification Reduction Based on Bed Availability... F-8 Table - Incidents of Classification Reduction Based on Bed Availability... F-9 Projections of the Stanislaus County Detention Population... F-10 Introduction... F-10 Population Forecasting Methods and Limitations... F-11 Low Projection Model... F-12 Chart/Table - Low Projection Model (County Inmates) (2011) Historical ( ) and Projected ( )... F-12 Chart/Table - Middle Projection Model (County Inmates) (2011) Historical ( ) and Projected ( )... F-13 Chart/Table - High Projection Model (County Inmates) (2011) Average Daily Detention Population... F-14 CROUT CRIMINAL JUSTICE CONSULTING LLC. S ECTION A E LEMENTS OF THE S YSTEM TABLE OF CONTENTS - II

4 Chart/Table - Summary of County Inmate Population Projections (2011)... F-15 Chart /Table - Projected ADP of AB 109 Inmates (2013)... F-16 Chart - High Projection Model with AB F-17 Stanislaus County Detention Population Projection Adjusted for Peaking Factors... F-18 Chart -Low Projection with AB 109 (2013)... F-19 Chart - Medium Projection with AB 109 (2013)... F-19 Chart - High Projection with AB 109 (2013)... F-20 Chart - High Peak Projection with AB 109 (2013)... F-20 Conclusion... F-21 Section G Adequacy of Staffing Level... G-1 Section H Ability to Provide Visual Supervision... H-1 Section I Adequacy of Record Keeping... I-1 Section J History of Compliance with Standards... J-1 BSCC Titles 15 and 24, CCR Inspection... J-1 Section K Unresolved Issues... K-1 Funding / Phasing Detention Facilities... K-1 Consolidation of Detention System at PSC:... K-1 Effects of AB109 State Realignment:... K-2 CROUT CRIMINAL JUSTICE CONSULTING LLC. S ECTION A E LEMENTS OF THE S YSTEM TABLE OF CONTENTS - III

5 SECTION A ELEMENTS OF THE SYSTEM The Stanislaus County Sheriff's Office currently operates three separate detention facilities as elements of its "detention system". The three detention facilities include: Men's Jail (MJ) located at 1115 H Street, Modesto, CA (Downtown Modesto) The Public Safety Center (PSC) located at 250 East Hackett Road, Modesto, CA (Suburban Modesto) The Honor Farm located at 8224 West Grayson Road, Modesto, CA (Rural Stanislaus County). The MJ was constructed in 1955 and is the central intake for male offenders in the county. The housing units in this facility are of the old linear design with open bars and long corridors. This facility is three stories high with the exercise yard located on the roof and the inmate worker quarters located in the basement. Significantly, this facility has no program space. This is particularly problematic for the longer termed inmates housed in this facility. The Corrections Standards Authority rates this facility at 342 beds while a Federal capacity limit is 372 beds. Most of the higher security inmates, including "realignment inmates 1 " and parole violators from CDCR, are housed at this facility due to the cell configurations and remote supervision. The MJ is old, outdated and inefficient. The PSC is a newer facility that takes advantage of modern podular designed direct-supervision housing units. The campus contains a three-dorm, 192 bed minimum-security housing units located approximately 500 yards from the main facility. The main facility contains a total of six housing units. Five housing units are medium security, direct-supervision single and double occupancy cells. The sixth unit is a mixture of single and double occupancy cells, maximum security beds (40), medium security beds (40) and (24) nonrated mental health beds. The total rated capacity for these units is 702 beds. This facility has limited programming space intended for shorter term inmates. Similar to MJ, a significant number of "realignment inmates" and parole violators are housed in this facility. 1 Former California State Prison inmates now sentenced to local jails under AB 109. S ECTION A E LEMENTS OF THE S YSTEM CROUT CRIMINAL JUSTICE CONSULTING LLC. A - 1

6 As a result of the planning efforts by the County of Stanislaus and previous Needs Assessments (2007 and 2011) the County applied for, and was granted, state funds under AB 900 to construct additional maximum security beds, medical/mental health beds and service areas. The county will fund the intake/release/transfer and administration spaces at the PSC. This will allow the County to consolidate inmates and services at the PSC, close the Honor Farm and partially meet its goal of centralizing all of its inmate population and associated services at the PSC campus. The AB 900 project is currently in the design phase. Currently two scenarios are being studied which will allow the County to construct 72 medical/mental health beds (special use beds) and either two 192-bed maximum security units or two bed units. The cost-efficient design that fits into the current budget will eventually be constructed. The Honor Farm is a minimum security facility that is located in the rural area of Stanislaus County. This facility was constructed in 1967 and originally contained four barracks buildings with a rated capacity of 322 Beds. Three of the barracks were rated at 70 beds each (dorm housing), and one barracks with a capacity of 112 beds. On June 26, 2010, two of the 70-bed dorms were destroyed by a fire. In 2012, the capacity of the HF was further reduced by 96 beds due to the closure of a dilapidated dorm. This resulted in a reduced maximum rated capacity of the 86 beds. The remaining dorm continues to house a small inmate population. As a result of the fire at the HF, the County received a settlement from its insurance company which funded a replacement facility. This facility, which is currently under construction at the PSC, will contain 192 beds. It will also contain some programming space for the inmates housed here. Once it is open, which is expected to occur in September 2013, the HF will be closed and the goal of centralizing all Stanislaus County Jail inmates at the PSC will be partially met. The Corrections Standards Authority provided rated capacities (RC) for all detention beds in jails in California. Their RC is based upon the existing space in a given jail and its compliance with the Title 24, California Code of Regulations (CCR) Standards that were in effect at the time the facility was constructed. Occasionally less restrictive standards will be adopted and the county then has the option to comply with these less restrictive standards which may increase the RC of the facility. Finally, there are a number of holding and "special use" cells (such as holding, medical, and disciplinary isolation cells) that are not counted in the RC of the facility. These cells are not counted as the RC because the cells are not operationally used to house general population inmates, rather they are used to fulfill a special need. S ECTION A E LEMENTS OF THE S YSTEM CROUT CRIMINAL JUSTICE CONSULTING LLC. A - 2

7 The design capacity" (DC) includes all of the cells in a facility that meet Title 24 CCR standards. Since special use cells, or non-rated cells, cannot be used by the general population and this special population often fluctuates, we prefer to use the CSA's RC for each of the facilities. However, to ensure that all beds are counted and to attempt to alleviate any confusion, we will provide numbers for both the RC as well as the DC As a baseline, the following represents the current rated capacities of the three detention facilities. These are the number of CSA rated beds as of March BSCC Jail Bed Rated Capacities (RC) Single Cell Beds Double Cell Beds Dormitory Multiple Beds Main Jail = Public Safety Center Honor Farm Totals and Total Rated Beds The following chart represents the DC for the three facilities that meet the Title 24 CCR Standards with the number of "special use beds" included in the totals. BSCC Jail Bed Design Capacity (DC) Total Rated Beds Special (non-rated) Beds Main Jail Public Safety Center Honor Farm Totals Use Total Design Capacity Since the 2007 TRG Needs Assessment, there have been a number of changes to the RC of the detention system. Some of these changes have been physical and some operational. Within the parameters of this Needs Assessment, we will only identify the changes to the RC based upon physical changes to the physical plants. 2 The MJ contains the only multiple cells in the system (old standards)- which are similar to dormitories 3 The MJ has a federal cap of 396 beds, 39 single cells identified above have double occupancy 4 PSC Building B contains 24 additional single beds that are not CSA rated due to their "special use" S ECTION A E LEMENTS OF THE S YSTEM CROUT CRIMINAL JUSTICE CONSULTING LLC. A - 3

8 The 2007 TRG Needs Assessment provided a table on page A 1 which was used to develop the 2007 baseline bed count. These numbers reflected both Title 24, CCR RC, Title 24, CCR DC and beds that were present that were not in compliance with Title 24 CCR. The following chart identifies how the numbers of beds included in the 2007 Needs Assessment has changed to what the above tables show... Historic Detention Bed Capacities Year 2007 TRG Numbers Main Jail PSC Honor Farm Totals Notes Numbers reflect the Design Capacity for the detention system plus non-title 24 CCR compliant beds HF Barracks 4 partial closure due to 338 conditions HF fire removed Barracks 1 and (-32) (-140) 2011 (-52) (2) (-16) 182 (-24) (-96) This represents deducting the noncompliant 5 beds. This is the Design Capacity (DC) This represents deducting the non-rated, Title 24 compliant beds to give the Rated Capacity (RC) This represents deducting 96 beds from the HF. Urgent Service Gap in Adult Criminal Justice System The TRG 2007 Needs Assessment identified six main urgent service gaps. The first identified additional beds that are needed to meet the near future needs. The 2011 Crout & Sida report found that this was only partially true. The most pressing need for the Stanislaus County Sheriff's Office Detention System in 2011 was an inadequate number of maximum security beds. These beds were needed both as an addition to the PSC facility, as well as replacement beds to ultimately phase out a dilapidated MJ. This updated Needs Assessment finds that the most critical need for the Stanislaus Jail System to be twofold. First, there is a lack of program space for inmates to prepare for reentry into the community and secondly, there is a lack of beds available to meet the ultimate goal of permanently closing MJ for the housing of inmates and centralizing all inmates and associated programming services at the PSC. 5 "non-compliant beds" is a term used to describe jail beds that are not in compliance with Title 24 CCR standards. S ECTION A E LEMENTS OF THE S YSTEM CROUT CRIMINAL JUSTICE CONSULTING LLC. A - 4

9 TRG's five bullet points on the top of page TRG's A2 are still valid. Those points include: The antiquated linear design of MJ makes it difficult to manage and control and is expensive to operate. The HF lacks the security necessary for the classification of inmate housed there. (this will shortly be resolved by the closing of the HF) The age of MJ requires extensive maintenance with many replacement parts for key systems no longer available. The cells at MJ are not designed to house today's more violent offender. In addition, the facility has a number of suicide hazards that are inherent with this design The overall design at MJ does not meet today's standards. The 2011 Crout & Sida report added three additional points to these issues The reduced size of the Honor Farm, together with its location, makes it less economical to operate given the reduced economies of scale. (this will shortly be resolved by the closing of the HF) Far too many inmates are assigned to housing units that are below their classification security level, directly due to a lack of maximum security beds. (this will be mitigated, but not solved, with the current AB900 jail construction) The Intake/Release area at MJ is inadequate for the number of inmates processed and a new area should be added to PSC as a replacement. (this will be solved with the current AB900 jail construction) This updated Needs Assessment highlights the two most critical needs for Stanislaus County Jail System: The need for additional programming space, especially programming that focuses on community reentry, due to the radical change in the inmate demographics in the jail system as a part of AB 109 Realignment. The need for a net addition of 342 replacement beds constructed at PSC to allow the County to close the antiquated Men's Jail and centralize all inmates and associated services at the PSC campus. S ECTION A E LEMENTS OF THE S YSTEM CROUT CRIMINAL JUSTICE CONSULTING LLC. A - 5

10 SECTION B OPERATIONAL AND DESIGN PHILOSOPHY The TRG 2007 Needs Assessment identified a "goals and objectives" statement taken from the Adult Detention Division Policy Manual (number 1-1) that was last reviewed on March 5, Since TRG's 2007 Report, a new set of "goals and objectives" was been adopted on April 1, This set of goals and objectives presents the Stanislaus County Sheriff's Office current philosophy. The Stanislaus County Sheriff s Adult Detention facilities were designed and constructed to provide the citizens of Stanislaus County with safe and secure facilities that either comply with or exceed standards articulated by local, state, federal, and professional government agencies. The Stanislaus County Sheriff s Department will maintain lawful, secure, and humane detention of persons held in custody within Stanislaus County. Written documentation describing the Division s philosophy, goals, and policies will be updated as necessary and reviewed annually. Adult Detention staff shall participate in the development and implementation of the Division's goals, objectives, policies, and procedures. Alternatives to incarceration shall be utilized and remain consistent with our responsibility to ensure public safety and to protect inmate rights. Inmates shall be classified in a manner that enhances overall facility security while providing safety to the public. While considering public safety as well as facility security, inmates shall also be classified in a manner that provides safe, secure, and humane housing. The Mission Statement Procedure We, the members of the Stanislaus County Sheriff's Department are dedicated to serve and protect the community through the highest standards of professionalism and ethical conduct by ENFORCEMENT, PREVENTION and EDUCATION in partnership with the community. 1) General facility operation is designed to ensure, that those remanded to the custody of the Stanislaus County Sheriff, are provided with safe, secure, and humane treatment consistent with applicable standards, laws and judicial decisions. 2) Medical and mental health care, nutritious meals and a hygienic clean environment will be provided to inmates in the custody of the Stanislaus County Sheriff. Religious materials and counseling as well as educational opportunities shall be provided to inmates where security permits. 3) The continuity of family and community contact will be encouraged by appropriate policies governing visiting, telephone usage, volunteer involvement and mail. S ECTION B OPERATIONAL AND D ESIGN P HILOSOPHY CROUT CRIMINAL JUSTICE CONSULTING LLC. B -1

11 Stanislaus County Sheriff's Office Organization Chart Detention Division SHERIFF UNDERSHERIFF CAPTAIN FACILITY COMMANDERS BAS CJ PSC HF COURT S COMMANDER COMMANDER COMMANDER COMMANDER COMMANDER BAS SERGEANT STC COORDINATO R ADMIN SERGEANT SHIFT SERGEANT ADMIN SERGEANT SHIFT SERGEANT SHIFT SERGEANTS COURT S SERGEANT CIVIL SERGEANT OPS / SUPPLY OPS / SUPPLY OPS COURT S TITLE 15 DEPUTY DEPUTY DEPUTY DEPUTIES DEPUTY MEDICAL DEPUTY MIOCR PROGRAM S STATEWIDE SCHEDULING TUNNEL DEPUTIES DEPUTY DEPUTY TRANSPORTATION DEPUTY LINE DEPUTIES LINE LINE CIVIL DIVISION FOOD SERVICE LEGAL CLERKS DEPUTIES DEPUTIES TRANSPORTATION LEGAL CLERKS TRANSPORTATION TRANSPORTATION AWP DEPUTIES S ECTION B OPERATIONAL AND D ESIGN P HILOSOPHY CROUT CRIMINAL JUSTICE CONSULTING LLC. B -2

12 The TRG 2007 Needs Assessment identified the "Design Goals for the New Adult Detention Beds and Support Spaces" on page B-2 of the report. There are twenty bulleted items beginning on page B-2 and ending at the top of page B-3. With the exception of the final two bulleted items (double fencing and court suite) the items remain valid. In addition to these we need to add the following: 1. Replace all minimum security housing current located at the Honor Farm with (182 beds - remaining after the fire) 192 beds at the PSC. (This will be accomplished with the completion of the new 192 bed housing unit at PSC) 2. Mothball the Honor Farm for possible future use as a "fire camp." 3. Replace all of the current Men's Jail beds with new housing units, intake and support areas at PSC, thus consolidating all detention activities at PSC. 4. Consider converting the Men's Jail as a court holding facility. 5. Focus on video visiting to provide a majority of all visiting at PSC. The Construction and Administrative Work Plan described by TRG on the middle of page B-3 through B-5 remains valid (as of March 2013) as a generic design process. S ECTION B OPERATIONAL AND D ESIGN P HILOSOPHY CROUT CRIMINAL JUSTICE CONSULTING LLC. B -3

13 SECTION C CURRENT INMATE POPULATION Introduction The information presented in this chapter, collected from both the Stanislaus County Sheriff s Department and the Board of State and Community Corrections (BSCC) portrays a significant change in the type of inmate currently housed in the County s facilities and will provide the reader with a snapshot on the most current demographic of inmate population. Section F will discuss the inmate demographic historical trends and characteristics of the inmate population. Inmate demographics are illustrated in this section in the areas of: Population by Court Status by Percentage Population by Court Status by Gender by Average Daily Population Population by Classification Population of Inmates Requiring Mental Health Attention Population of Inmates Requiring Medical Attention Inmate Bookings by Month Early Inmate Releases by Court Status by Quarter Impact of AB 109 Inmate The graphs presented in this chapter provide a broad overview of the characteristics of the Stanislaus County Jail System population during the first quarter of S ECTION C - C URRENT I NMATE P OPULATION CROUT CRIMINAL JUSTICE CONSULTING LLC. C - 1

14 Stanislaus County Adult Detention Facilities Inmate Population by Court Status by Percentage 1st Quarter 2013 Source: Stanislaus County Sheriff's Department As can be viewed in the chart above, a significant majority of inmates housed in Stanislaus County's Jails are "non-sentenced." This type of population is generally more staff intensive to manage. This is because of a number of factors including: Non-sentenced inmates need to frequently be transported to court during their stay. If the inmates are substance abusers, they need to detoxify requiring increased medical and possibly mental health attention. Inmates need to be classified by security staff as well as medical and mental health for appropriate programs and housing. S ECTION C - C URRENT I NMATE P OPULATION CROUT CRIMINAL JUSTICE CONSULTING LLC. C - 2

15 Stanislaus County Adult Detention Facilities Population by Court Status by Gender by Average Daily Population Source: Stanislaus County Sheriff's Department This table graphically shows the population of the jail by gender (90% male and 10% female) and their court status for the first quarter of If the number of AB 109 inmates continues to rise, this will decrease the percentage of non-sentenced inmates in the jail and increase the need for programs for its longer termed inmates. S ECTION C - C URRENT I NMATE P OPULATION CROUT CRIMINAL JUSTICE CONSULTING LLC. C - 3

16 Stanislaus County Adult Detention Facilities Population by Classification Source: Stanislaus County Sheriff's Department The last two Needs Assessments correctly pointed out that greatest need for future housing is for maximum security beds. The current AB900 construction project has recognized this fact and is in the planning phase to add principally maximum security housing units. A vast majority of the current bed space in the Public Safety Center is medium-security type construction; however there is a need for more secure maximum-security beds. Once the AB 900 construction project is complete, the stress of housing inmates in beds that are below their classification level will be somewhat mitigated. However there are not sufficient beds being planned for the County to be able to close the Men's Jail and move its inmate population to PSC. The important point here is that as long as the Men's Jail is open, its inmate population will lack space to provide programs needed - especially the AB 109 inmates who are housed at the MJ. S ECTION C - C URRENT I NMATE P OPULATION CROUT CRIMINAL JUSTICE CONSULTING LLC. C - 4

17 Stanislaus County Adult Detention Facilities Population of Inmates Requiring Mental Health Attention Source: Stanislaus County Sheriff's Department Inmates that require mental health services continue to significantly impact the population of the jail. These inmates are more difficult to manage by custody staff and require much more attention by medical and mental health staff. Most of these inmates require segregated housing due to their specific condition. The cost in psychotropic medication alone is very onerous. For example, the cost of psychotropic medication for the first quarter of 2013 was $30, The new facility being planned and funded under AB900 will hopefully address most of the mental health needs at the Jail System. There will be dedicated space for inmates needing mental health services as well as the staff who treat them. While this space will definitely help ease the stress on the current facility, we believe that this population will continue to grow - both by local and (previous) state inmate populations. Consequently, we believe that the County should consider adding space dedicated for mental health services in any new construction project. S ECTION C - C URRENT I NMATE P OPULATION CROUT CRIMINAL JUSTICE CONSULTING LLC. C - 5

18 Stanislaus County Adult Detention Facilities Population of Inmates Requiring Medical Attention Source: Stanislaus County Sheriff's Department Similar to inmates with mental health issues, inmate needing medical services has grown over the years to have a significant impact on the jail operations and budget. In fact, the cost of medication for inmates during this quarter was $95, We anticipate that as with the general population, medical costs will continue to escalate. Fortunately, as with the mental health function, there is space being constructed with the AB 900 project that will serve both this inmate population as well as to provide needed medical staff spaces. While the AB900 project will remove some stress on the delivery of medical services, we anticipate that this need will increase if the inmates from the Main Jail are eventually moved to the PSC. Consequently, like S ECTION C - C URRENT I NMATE P OPULATION CROUT CRIMINAL JUSTICE CONSULTING LLC. C - 6

19 mental health services, we recommend adding medical space - both housing and staff space - to any project that adds beds to the PSC. Stanislaus County Adult Detention Facilities Population Inmate Bookings by Month As can be viewed by the above graph, there is an average of 55 new bookings into the Stanislaus County Jail System each and every day. The good news is that these new bookings will occur at the PSC once the AB 900 construction project is finished. This will take the stress off of the main Jail booking area where most of the arrestees are processed into the system (and become inmates). The largest concern with this number of new inmates is that space is limited in the Jail System. For every person processed into the Jail System, there must be at least one inmate that is released from the Jail System. When the number of inmates being released through normal methods is less than the number of inmates that are processed into the Jail System, an accelerated release procedure is utilized to manage the jail's inmate population. S ECTION C - C URRENT I NMATE P OPULATION CROUT CRIMINAL JUSTICE CONSULTING LLC. C - 7

20 Stanislaus County Adult Detention Facilities Population Early Inmate Releases by Court Status by Quarter The chart on the previous page listed the bookings per quarter. The above chart reflects the number of inmates that are being released by court status for the quarter. The important thing to note on this chart is that it reflects only those inmates who were released early due to a lack of space. While the AB900 construction project will add some much needed beds to the Jail System, it is important to note that jail beds will always be a premium. Consequently we believe that it is equally important to construct program space where evidence based programs can be provided with the intent to reduce recidivism. Only through reducing the number of persons who recommit crimes and end up back in jail can we stop this downward spiral that is extremely costly for the County in both human and cash terms. S ECTION C - C URRENT I NMATE P OPULATION CROUT CRIMINAL JUSTICE CONSULTING LLC. C - 8

21 Stanislaus County Adult Detention Facilities Population Impact of AB 109 Inmates This graph illustrates the relatively large population of inmates who two years ago would have been in state prisons. Nearly 25 % of the jail population is made of this type of inmate. Without lamenting the policy of transferring state inmates to local detention facilities, we must accept this as a reality. Consequently we must adjust our physical plants to meet the different needs of this type of population, more specifically by adding program space. Any plan that the County considers must include closing the Men's Jail because this facility lacks this needed program space as it was designed to hold shorter termed offenders. S ECTION C - C URRENT I NMATE P OPULATION CROUT CRIMINAL JUSTICE CONSULTING LLC. C - 9

22 SECTION D CLASSIFICATION OF INMATES Introduction Classification is the term given in a detention center for determining the relative risk that each inmate presents in terms of safety and security to staff, other inmates and the public. A standardized objective tool is used to determine the classification level of each inmate. This is essentially the same as doing a "risk assessment" on each inmate in the facility where the booking charge is only one part in determining the classification level. Once the classification level is determined, the inmate may be housed in the proper level housing unit (maximum, medium or minimum security). The inmates are further segregated within each housing level based upon the safety and security of each inmate within that housing unit. Consequently, while minimum security inmates may be generally housed together in a dorm environment, maximum security inmates may need to be housed separately from other maximum security inmates - thus the need for single and double occupancy cells. Further, these inmates must be moved separately or in small groups which requires additional staff and remote supervision environments in the detention facility (with secure control centers). Clearly, this update to the needs assessment has identified the overwhelming need for both maximum security housing as well as medical and mental health housing as a primary need based upon the classification of current inmates. As identified in Section C, there are a relatively large number of inmates who are not properly housed according to their classification status simply because of the lack of enough maximum security beds. Background Because the classification system is driving the need for a specific type of bed (maximum security), it is critical that the decision makers, who may not be completely knowledgeable of complexity of a classification system, be provided information on how the system works in Stanislaus County. As a result, a Stanislaus County Detentions professional prepared the following: All newly received inmates are initially classified objectively to determine their level of security and proper housing location. This process is known as the "initial classification assessment." The classification plan is designed to properly assign inmates to the appropriate housing according to the categories of sex, age, criminal sophistication, seriousness of crime charged, physical or mental health needs, gang affiliation, and other relevant criteria. The Intake Deputy will use all of the information obtained during the intake process to determine the inmate s proper placement into a temporary holding cell. All the information obtained during the intake process will be delivered to the on-duty Classification Deputy, who will objectively classify the inmate with-in 72 hours after booking (classification assessment interview). S ECTION D C LASSIFICATION OF I NMATES CROUT CRIMINAL JUSTICE CONSULTING LLC. D - 1

23 An inmate may be classified as Administrative Segregation or Maximum Security at the time of the classification assessment interview based on the criteria above, and more specifically, whether the inmate is prone to: escape, assaulting staff or other inmates, engaging in criminal gang activity, disrupting the operations of the facility; or, they are likely to need protection from other inmates. The inmate s custody / classification history will aid in making this determination. All newly received inmates, charged with murder (187 PC) and other egregious crimes, are initially housed as maximum security. The classification plan has a process built into it that allows these types of inmates to request a downgrade in their classification. Unfortunately, classification downgrades are being over-used to remedy the current lack of bed space to properly house maximum-security inmates. Once requested or because of need, due to lack of bed space, a Classification Deputy may initiate a classification downgrade packet to downgrade the inmate s classification. If approved by the Classification Sergeant, the inmate s classification is downgraded and the inmate is housed in a general population bed,(may include a Protective Custody housing unit) which in many instances is a severely lower level of housing. Currently, the facilities do not have the bed space to properly house every maximum-security inmate in a single cell or double cell. Classification or segregation of inmates is not based on race, color, creed, or national origin. Currently, a large number of our jail population requires segregated housing or is made up of active and nonactive gang members, also known as dropouts. To maintain the safety and security of inmates and staff as well as the good general order and overall operation of each facility, inmates with gang affiliation or requiring segregation are classified and segregated into several categories: Norteno/Northern Structure - There are almost 200 inmates identified in this classification, many of these inmates have committed heinous crimes in the community such as armed robbery, home invasion robberies, drive by shootings, and extortion. Due to a lack of bed space, the majority of the inmates in this classification are housed in dorm cells, which have a capacity of twelve inmates. Housing these types of inmates in a dorm cell is very difficult due to their criminal sophistication, organizational structure, and criminal mentality. An inmate must claim affiliation or be documented, by a Classification Deputy or Gang Intelligence Deputy, to be classified as a Norteno gang member. Sureno - There are approximately thirty inmates identified in this classification. As with any other affiliated gang member, these inmates pose significant challenges in their housing. They must be kept segregated for their safety from the Norteno population, other gang dropouts and other active gang members. Northern Riders This is a newly documented and court validated criminal street gang classification in Stanislaus County. This gang evolved from inmates who were previously housed and classified as dropouts in segregated protective custody housing. As with all of the other gang classifications, they pose a significant challenge to house. Due to a lack of bed space, the majority of the inmates in this classification are housed in dorm cells, which have a capacity of twelve inmates. Some have also been moved into the Special Handling Unit due their criminal activity and attempts to disrupt facility operation. Drop Outs/Protective Custody - This is by far the most difficult type of inmate to house. Due to appropriate cell limits we have been forced to house all drop outs and Protective Custody inmates S ECTION D C LASSIFICATION OF I NMATES CROUT CRIMINAL JUSTICE CONSULTING LLC. D - 2

24 together. Drop outs are inmates who have renounced their gang ties, they include, Norteno, Sureno, Nazi Low Rider, White Supremacist to name a few. Many of these inmates are arrested on serious high level crimes that would require restrictive housing. Protective Custody (PC) inmates are inmates who are unable to function in general population, due to charges or weakness, they must be housed separately. Three Strikers - Around 1998, shortly after the Three strikes, you re out law was signed, Stanislaus County housed inmates going to trial on three strikes cases separately, they were treated like Maximum Security inmates. They are very criminally sophisticated because they have been to prison on at least two prior commitments. There are currently not enough suitable beds to house these inmates at the level required. Administrative Segregation - These are inmates who due to behavior, possession or manufacturing of weapons, assaults on inmates and/or staff etc., need to be housed in a more restrictive location. We place these types of inmates in single or double cells; they are treated as maximum security inmates. Classifications levels this numbering system is used to categorize inmates, based on charges, behavior and prior classification history to determine their proper level of housing. Currently there are Level 5 inmates (maximum security) in Minimum Security beds. Adequate and appropriate bed space is necessary to maintain the safety and security of inmates and staff. Not housing inmates in the proper level of housing severely jeopardizes the ability of staff to maintain the good order and operational capacity of each facility. Stanislaus County has continually been forced to house a higher security inmate in a lower security setting. There are inmates convicted of armed robbery and other serious crimes at the Men s Honor Farm. Inmates are classified on a variety of factors; however with the proper number of high security level beds we could reduce liability, create a safer environment for staff and inmates, and house inmates that are Medium/Maximum correctly. Update The TRG 2007 Needs Assessment described the classification policies that are being used at Stanislaus County. With the exception of not focusing on the critical need today to provide additional maximum security, medical and mental health staffing, the TRG content remains valid as of March S ECTION D C LASSIFICATION OF I NMATES CROUT CRIMINAL JUSTICE CONSULTING LLC. D - 3

25 SECTION E PROGRAMS The 2007 TRG Needs Assessment does an excellent job in describing the programs that were in place during the time that this document was completed. Indeed most of these programs continue to occur. What has changed since that report is a significant change in the inmate profile to include many former state inmates that have been transferred to Stanislaus County Jail under AB 109 (Penal Code 1170(h)). Consequently, there are many new programs that have been added and others that are possible. The stakeholders are ready and willing to implement a number of programs aimed to reduce recidivism and ease re-entry into the community. The only variable which is critically needed is program space. Without this space, the County is limited to the number of programs it can employ. AB109 dictated that a large number of state inmates (nonserious/non-violent/non-sex offense) who are serving sentences of up to three years will be transferred, or sentenced directly to local county jails including Stanislaus County Detention System. In addition, this Act provided that lower level parolees returning from state prison be supervised by counties. Since these inmates have extended "lengths of stay" versus what the Jails were originally constructed to hold, there is simply not enough space in the current physical plants to facilitate these programs. Indeed, the Men's Jail is almost totally deficient in having space to provide programs. This Act also dictates that there be programs available for these inmates that are in excess of what is currently provided. This Act also sets up state funding for these programs. On September 20, 2011, the Stanislaus County Board of Supervisors approved the Community Corrections Partnership Plan for Implementation of the 2011 Public Safety Realignment (AB109). This plan, which was presented by former Chief Probation Officer Jerry Powers, identified the Community Corrections Partnership. This document provides the roadmap that the criminal justice system in general, and the Probation Department and the Sheriff's Office in particular, has and will continue to use to address issues associated with this new jail population dynamic While the Men's Jail is grossly inadequate in the ability to provide programs for inmates who housed there, Stanislaus County Sheriff's Office has continued to provide the programs described in the 2007 TRG Report at the Honor Farm and the PSC. As mentioned in other chapters of this report, there is a new 192- bed housing unit being added to PSC which will result in the closure of the Honor Farm. In addition, the County is in the planning phase of constructing new maximum security housing units, a medical/mental health unit and other functional use areas to the PSC which will be primarily funded by AB900 monies. S ECTION E P ROGRAMS CROUT CRIMINAL JUSTICE CONSULTING LLC. E - 1

26 This will address the very serious decencies in maximum security jail beds and mental health beds noted in the 2007 and the 2011 Needs Assessments and will provide some programs area.. What it will not do, is give the County the ability to close the Main Jail and move its inmates to the PSC campus in order to abandon a dilapidated jail and have access to the program space that is critically needed to meet state and constitutional mandates Existing Inmate Programs Currently, the following providers present programs dependant on space available: Friends Outside - a community based organization that closely works with current and former inmates and their families. They also provide the following in-custody programs: o Breaking Barriers o Job development workshops o Parenting classes o Anger management Office of Education o GED classes and exams o Individual Education Plan Stanislaus Literacy Council o Literacy instruction Modesto City Schools o Welding Classes Behavior Health and Recovery Services (BHRS) o Men in Recovery o Women of Wisdom Chaplain (Full-Time) Narcotics Anonymous Alcohol Anonymous D.A./ Probation/ BHRS/Public Defender o Mental health Court o Drug Court MIOCRG Collaboration between the Sheriff's Office and BHRS o Full time mental health staff and deputies Alternatives to Incarceration The Stanislaus County Sheriff's Office uses a wide range of alternatives to maintain an inmate population level in their facilities that meets Constitutional standards. With the implementation of AB 109, this system has been severely strained to keep up with the added numbers of inmates. Consequently, the County is S ECTION E P ROGRAMS CROUT CRIMINAL JUSTICE CONSULTING LLC. E - 2

27 planning on using a variety of measures (to be discussed later) to meet this challenge. The present alternatives have existed long beyond the 2007 Needs Assessment that described them. They include: Alternative Work Program Electronic home monitoring Sheriff's Parole In addition, sentenced inmates are having their sentences reduced as needed to maintain a population minimum and are being released from custody early. Day Reporting Center (DRC) Although this is primarily a Probation Department program, it has served to reduce the pressure on the inmate population in the Jails. This program has been operated out of temporary space in Salida, and now in Downtown Modesto, since August Part of the SB1022 construction project will be to add a program specific building at the PSC site, just outside of the secure perimeter of the Jail. This new space will allow the Probation Department to enhance their program and potentially increase the number of individuals served. Not to be lost is the extremely positive effect that such a program as a DRC has on reducing the potential future jail population Future Plans The Stanislaus County Sheriff's Office in concert with the Community Corrections Partnership should focus on the following to enhance the programs provided in the Jail Facilities together with a continuum of recourses that should extend outside of the secure perimeter of the jails. These include: Construct 342 replacement housing units (beds) at the PSC with associated program space that will allow the County to permanently close the Men's Jail and consolidate all of the jail population at the PSC. (this has been the ultimate goal of both the 2007 and the 2011 Needs Assessments). Develop evidence based programs to enhance the current alternatives to incarceration. Develop a comprehensive program to focus on successful reentry of the jail population into the community. This plan (similar of an Individual Education Plan) should begin at booking and follow each inmate as they progress though the various new and existing jail programs. Construct new programs space within the secure perimeter of the jail that would have a linkage with the planned DRC building at PSC. S ECTION E P ROGRAMS CROUT CRIMINAL JUSTICE CONSULTING LLC. E - 3

28 SECTION F AN ANALYSIS OF THE LOCAL TRENDS AND CHARACTERISTICS Introduction The analyses of local trends within the Stanislaus County community are essential to sound planning for the future criminal justice policy making. Because of recent significant changes to the population of inmates in local detention facilities (jails) through AB 109 Realignment, it is important to look at what has changed since the 2011 Needs Assessment Update to fully understand what is occurring within the County. We feel that the analysis completed in the 2011 Needs Assessment with respect to national crime statics remains valid. What has changed since that assessment is the influx of AB 109 inmates that have been added to the responsibility of the County Jail System. This report will begin with looking at trends that have occurred in Stanislaus County since the last update coupled with historical data. What the reader must be cognizant of is the fact that the population in the Stanislaus County Jail System is artificially depressed due to limits in the number of beds available. Average Daily Population Source: Stanislaus County Sheriff's Department and BSCC Jail Profile Survey S ECTION F AN A NALYSIS OF L OCAL TRENDS AND C HARACTERISTICS CROUT CRIMINAL JUSTICE CONSULTING LLC. F - 1

29 Two decades ago, the Average Daily Population table would often tell of the "need" for additional beds. Today, this table cannot provide this information. Rather it indicates where the County has been for the last eleven years and what the current ADP is. This is because several events have depressed the ADP so that it would indicate to the uninitiated, that the "need" is less. For example, in 2010 a fire destroyed 140 beds at the minimum security Honor Farm. A temporary "reduction in force" further reduced the number of available beds. Both of these factors can be seen in the dramatic drop in ADP between 2009 and The jail bed "need" was not reduced, rather the number of inmates being held at the facility was reduced. Since 2010 the actual number of available beds has remained steady and this is reflected in the static ADP levels during these dates. Bookings Bookings into the Jail System have been indicative of pressure on the system to accommodate new inmates. Bookings have also been depressed beginning in 2007 until 2011 due to the Sheriff communicating to law enforcement agencies that book into the jail and asking them to increase the use of their citation release process. In 2012, bookings have begun to increase to levels experienced ten years ago and are nearly 2,000 more than in S ECTION F AN A NALYSIS OF L OCAL TRENDS AND C HARACTERISTICS CROUT CRIMINAL JUSTICE CONSULTING LLC. F - 2

30 Field Citations The County utilizes multiple procedures in its attempt to proactively manage the detention capacity. One program put in place fairly recently is the use of field citations. In order to help manage the detention population, the Sheriff s Department issued the following memorandum in June of 2010: Advisory 6 As of June 16, 2010, the Stanislaus County Sheriff s Office recommends the following categories of arrestees be cited in the field: Infractions or Municipal Code violations, On View or I&B Any Infraction or Municipal Code warrant Non-violent misdemeanor charges, On View or I&B Any type of misdemeanor warrant DUI arrests, at which time the suspect is no longer intoxicated or impaired Agencies who arrest suspects falling into the above categories should issue citations in a manner consistent with Stanislaus County Court s Citation guidelines, which are as follows: Court dates are to be set 60 days from the date of arrest Appearance dates are to be scheduled Monday through Friday, but not on a Tuesday, unless the 60 th day falls on a Monday that is a holiday The appearance time is to be scheduled for 0800 hours Shift Sergeants at each booking facility shall have the ultimate responsibility and authority to manage the facility count. As with any new procedure, we expect that not every situation will be easily defined in this advisory and that the Shift Sergeant must work with the arresting officer when unique booking situations arise. Our ability to adequately and appropriately house offenders is an ever-growing challenge. Budgetary constraints, unfunded statutory corrections mandates and inadequate bed space all affect our daily/average inmate population. We appreciate your efforts in reducing unnecessary bookings whenever possible. 6 Stanislaus County Sheriff s Department Memorandum dated June 7, 2010, subject: Field Citations S ECTION F AN A NALYSIS OF L OCAL TRENDS AND C HARACTERISTICS CROUT CRIMINAL JUSTICE CONSULTING LLC. F - 3

31 The results of this recommendation and practice are summarized below. Cites and Releases which Occurred from August 2009 to August 2011 Locale Arresting Agency Number of Persons Modesto Police Department 175,161 Turlock Police Department 10,180 Ceres Police Department 12,390 Newman Police Department 1,334 Source: Stanislaus County Sheriff s Department Early Releases of Inmates This practice has been instrumental in helping to keep the ADP at the recent lower levels. Though a useful and much needed tool as of now, the viability of this approach could change at any time causing the County to revert back to a policy of booking these individuals and thus experiencing a significant increase in housing demand. The County has been forced to aggressively release both sentenced and non-sentenced inmates over the last 13 months as a result of housing limitations. Since April 2011, an average of 49.5% of the ADP has been released early. This situation, like field citations, can produce a risk to the public safety if the County is forced to release inappropriate inmates and is not recommended as routine practice by the County. S ECTION F AN A NALYSIS OF L OCAL TRENDS AND C HARACTERISTICS CROUT CRIMINAL JUSTICE CONSULTING LLC. F - 4

32 Inmates Released as a Result of Insufficient Housing Capacity All future facility planning should address the magnitude of this practice on housing capacity. Date Sentenced Inmates Nonsentenced inmates (1.) Total Releases ADP Release as a Percentage of ADP Jun , % Jul , % Aug , % Sep , % Oct , % Nov , % Dec , % Jan , % Feb % Mar % Apr , % May , % Jun , % Jul , % Aug , % Sep , % Oct , % Nov , % Dec , % Jan , % Feb , % Mar , % Apr , % May , % Jun , % Jul , % Aug , % Sep , % Oct , % Nov , % Dec , % Jan , % Feb , % Mar , % S ECTION F AN A NALYSIS OF L OCAL TRENDS AND C HARACTERISTICS CROUT CRIMINAL JUSTICE CONSULTING LLC. F - 5

33 Note: 1. Includes cite and felony OR. Source: Stanislaus County Sheriff s Department and BSCC Jail Profile Survey This chart incorporates most of the data from the previous table (page F-5). While the numbers of nonsentenced inmates has remained relatively level since June of 2010, the number of sentenced inmates being release early has shown a strong upward movement in the last twelve months. This may be due to an increasing influence of AB 109 inmates, most of which are sentenced, which causes the County to release other sentenced inmates to make bed space available. S ECTION F AN A NALYSIS OF L OCAL TRENDS AND C HARACTERISTICS CROUT CRIMINAL JUSTICE CONSULTING LLC. F - 6

34 While there are some monthly variations with the chart on the previous page, the number of releases due to a lack of capacity remain very high when compared with the ADP. Consequently, while the ADP has remained somewhat constant during this period of time, the stress on the system to provide inmates with beds remains constant as well. Average Length of Stay S ECTION F AN A NALYSIS OF L OCAL TRENDS AND C HARACTERISTICS CROUT CRIMINAL JUSTICE CONSULTING LLC. F - 7

35 Source: Board of State and Community Corrections Jail Profile Survey The average length of stay is another factor that influences the stress on the Jail System to meet its demands. In 2007 the ALS suddenly spiked and this can be viewed by looking at the ADP for that period of time which was at the highest as well. It is anticipated that the ALS for AB109 inmates will be so long that, without adding new beds to the Jail System, County inmates will be squeezed out and released. For example, one AB 109 inmate who has an ALS of 90 days will displace three County Inmates who have ALSs of 30 days each. For planning purposes, inmates with longer ALSs require more programs. It has not been practical to provide a wide range of programs for inmates who are in the Jail System for short period of times (short ALSs). Consequently, county jails were not designed with large spaces for programs as is demonstrated by the current Men's Jail. The new demand on this specialized space that will be generated by inmates with longer ALSs will generate the critical need for program space in the facility where they are incarcerated. We see the critical need to replace the Main Jail as one of the dynamics of the new inmate population. Recent Trends Influencing Future Detention Requirements in the County Since the original PSC was opened in 1992, the demographics of the inmate population have shifted to higher classification levels. Programs have contributed to this phenomenon by channeling the lowest security inmates away from detention incarceration and into other community programs. While the Average Daily Population has been slowly increasing, or in the experience of the last six years, decreasing, the true S ECTION F AN A NALYSIS OF L OCAL TRENDS AND C HARACTERISTICS CROUT CRIMINAL JUSTICE CONSULTING LLC. F - 8

36 classification level of inmates has been increasing. Consequently, many inmates who should be housed in maximum security beds are instead housed in medium security beds. Significantly, the number of medium security beds in Stanislaus detention facilities System is quite high, while there are few maximum security beds available. This contributes to unsafe conditions for inmates and staff in these facilities. Classification Overrides Based on Housing Availability Historically, Stanislaus County has been forced to override its classification system to downgrade a significant number of inmates for housing placement. The extent to which this practice has been maintained is clearly shown on the following page: Incidents of Classification Reduction Based on Bed Availability Source: Stanislaus County Sheriff s Department Date ADP Classification Downgrades Cases as a Percentage of Total ADP Jun , % Jun , % Jun % Aug , % S ECTION F AN A NALYSIS OF L OCAL TRENDS AND C HARACTERISTICS CROUT CRIMINAL JUSTICE CONSULTING LLC. F - 9

37 Source: Stanislaus County Sheriff s Department The most current snapshot of inmates housed in County facilities can be broken down even further. On August 25, 2011, the system count was 1,005 inmates, of which 325, or 32 percent, were housed below their appropriate classification level. Of these 325 inmates, 84 percent were maximum security inmates that received a medium security classification for housing purposes. This shortage presents numerous management and operational issues for the County. Future planning must attempt to correct the routine use of classification overrides by providing housing that supports proper inmate classification and security level. Future Impacting Factors - AB109 - Realignment Another factor that will have an enormous impact on future housing capacity within the County is the State s Realignment Plan. According to the US Supreme Court, the State of California has been unable to manage its increasing inmate population. Coupled with the latest, and most severe, budget crisis, Assembly Bill 109 was passed by the legislature and signed into law by the Governor. This statute is designed to relocate (by realigning the criminal justice system) certain inmates from the state prison population to county jails. During the last several years there has been much discussion on the specifics of exactly how many more inmates the County will be expected to house due to this bill, but it will be, by all accounts, significant. For now, future planning can only provide what best case analyses indicate as the potential increase of ADP in the Stanislaus detention system. The projection presented later in this section estimates the impact on capacity as a result of AB109. It is projected that 400 additional inmates will need to be housed in the County by the time AB109 is fully implemented. S ECTION F AN A NALYSIS OF L OCAL TRENDS AND C HARACTERISTICS CROUT CRIMINAL JUSTICE CONSULTING LLC. F - 10

38 Projections of the Stanislaus County Detention Population Introduction Projections of criminal justice populations, though a key requirement of a Needs Assessment, are essential tools for budgeting, operations, and capacity planning as well. The projections of the Stanislaus County adult detention population are based on all of the statistical and trend information known at the time that the forecasts were produced. The projections were developed using a set of statistical techniques known as time-series forecasting and were based on rigorous statistical testing. Time-series forecasting assumes that there is a pattern in the historical values that can be identified. The goal is to define the pattern, understand the short-term and long-term trends, and pinpoint any seasonal fluctuations. Significant policy changes made in past years, if known, can be quantified and included in the statistical model. Time-series forecasting then utilizes the pattern, trend, and seasonal variation identified in the historical data to project future values. Future changes in policies or in critical factors affecting the adult detention population cannot be accounted for using historical data. The projections of the Stanislaus County adult detention population were generated from the historical data reported on the California Board of State and Community Corrections Monthly Jail Profile Survey for the period of January 2002 through March 2013 and verified and supported by additional data from the Sheriff s Department. The projections reflect the trends in the detention population through March Between 2007 and 2010, average daily population in Stanislaus County s detention facilities decreased by 18.4%. During that time period, total detention capacity was reduced by 426 beds. The number of persons booked into the County s detention facilities each year also declined. Admissions fell 19.9% between 2007 and The downward trend in admissions is affecting the County s overall detention population. Due to the declines in the County s detention population (particularly from 2009 to 2010), statistical projections of the population generated from the historical data initially decline before leveling off in the later years of the forecast horizon. Numerous models were produced and tested; finally resulting in a low, middle, and high model. The low and middle projections are based on data for the overall detention population. The high projection is based on separate projections for the non-sentenced and sentenced populations in the detention facilities, which were summed to produce the overall population projection. Since 2011, the ADP has remained relatively constant, while bookings have increased by about 9.6%, a small contradiction from the previous paragraph. What has been a constant is that the Jail System will not hold more inmates than they have beds for which would account for the static ADP over the years. The more inmates that are booked into the jail and the longer length of stays simply means that more inmates are released to the community S ECTION F AN A NALYSIS OF L OCAL TRENDS AND C HARACTERISTICS CROUT CRIMINAL JUSTICE CONSULTING LLC. F - 11

39 Population Forecasting Methods and Limitations It is important to note that population forecasting is not an exact science. Multiple factors influence facility admissions and length of stay; these factors are influenced by law, criminal justice policy, economics, and the social environment of the jurisdiction. As a result, the estimates of future capacity requirements must be considered as statistically sound baselines. A baseline forecast identifies what the population is likely to be if the current trends continue. While it is possible to calculate the impact of known changes, there are too many items that will affect the County s criminal justice system in years to come that are simply unknowable today. Jurisdictions like Stanislaus typically confront this problem by employing two strategies: Modifying the baseline projection to include any known changes in criminal justice practices, and Providing an easily expandable and adaptable building that is flexible enough to respond to change. Stanislaus County s future planning effort must employ both strategies in order to address the recent events described below and the evolving inmate profile described in Section C. These are challenging times. Changes are occurring in policy making and incarceration practices across the State, and there are several major forces at work outside the County s control. These projections cannot incorporate these types of future occurrences. This approach to planning can, therefore, only be considered a conservative one. The forecasting methods used in the 2011 Needs Assessment remain valid. We have included the data that was generated in that report. It must be noted that the impact of AB 109 Realignment had not begun during the last (2011) Needs Assessment. Consequently, we have updated the projections from 2011 to include actual numbers of AB 109 inmates for the period of time from March 2012 to February We are still using the maximum number of AB 900 inmates at 400 in 2015 as a planning number, although we suspect that this number will be larger. It should also be noted that the forecasting completed in 2011 was based on average daily population data which we have already shown to be artificially depressed through early release mechanisms. Consequently, we strongly believe that the projected numbers through 2020 may be depressed due to the limits in the number of physical beds that are available. When beds are added through the AB900 Construction Project, we further believe that they will be filled and the number of inmates being released due to crowding will lessen. S ECTION F AN A NALYSIS OF L OCAL TRENDS AND C HARACTERISTICS CROUT CRIMINAL JUSTICE CONSULTING LLC. F - 12

40 Low Projection Model (County Inmates) (2011) The low Detention population projection is heavily influenced by the downward trend that began in The projection levels off by the year 2020 at 854 inmates. Stanislaus County Detention Population Historical ( ) and Projected ( ) Historical Projected Low Projections of the Stanislaus County Average Daily Detention Population Year Low Projection Model S ECTION F AN A NALYSIS OF L OCAL TRENDS AND C HARACTERISTICS CROUT CRIMINAL JUSTICE CONSULTING LLC. F - 13

41 Middle Projection Model (County Inmates) (2011) The middle Detention population projection is also influenced by the decline in the population since 2008, but to a lesser extent. This projection levels off at 906 inmates from 2017 through the year Stanislaus County Detention Population Historical ( ) and Projected ( ) Historical Projected Middle Year Projections of the Stanislaus County Average Daily Detention Population Middle Projection Model S ECTION F AN A NALYSIS OF L OCAL TRENDS AND C HARACTERISTICS CROUT CRIMINAL JUSTICE CONSULTING LLC. F - 14

42 High Projection Model (County Inmates) (2011) The high detention population projection anticipates a decrease in the population from 2010 to 2011, but remains flat for the remaining years of the forecast period at 1,015 inmates. Stanislaus County Detention Population Historical ( ) and Projected ( ) Historical Projected High Projections of the Stanislaus County Average Daily Detention Population Year High Projection Model , , , , , , , , , ,015 S ECTION F AN A NALYSIS OF L OCAL TRENDS AND C HARACTERISTICS CROUT CRIMINAL JUSTICE CONSULTING LLC. F - 15

43 Summary of County Inmate Population Projections (2011) As shown on the preceding pages, projections of the Stanislaus County Detention population for the year 2020 range from a low of 854 to a high of 1,015. Stanislaus County Detention Population Historical ( ) and Projected ( ) Historical Projected High Middle Low Projections of the Stanislaus County Average Daily Detention Population Year Low Middle High , , , , , , , , , ,015 S ECTION F AN A NALYSIS OF L OCAL TRENDS AND C HARACTERISTICS CROUT CRIMINAL JUSTICE CONSULTING LLC. F - 16

44 Projected ADP of AB109 Inmates (2013) The Stanislaus County Sheriff's Office began collection monthly data of the ADP for inmates sentenced under Penal Code 1170(h) and Penal Code both are considered to be AB 109 inmates or inmates who were formerly housed in State Prisons. It is important to note that while the inmates held under PC 3056 (Parole Hold) have been decreasing over the past year by about 50 inmates, the number of inmates housed under PC 1170(h) are steadily increasing. We feel that this is happening because the Average Length of Stay (ALS) for these inmates is quite long. The table beneath the below graph shows the sentences for this population from October 1, 2012 to March 31, Source: Stanislaus County Sheriff's Office Longest Sentence Average Sentence Split Sentence Full Sentence 3,531 days 833 days 160 days 75 days Source: Stanislaus County Sheriff's Office S ECTION F AN A NALYSIS OF L OCAL TRENDS AND C HARACTERISTICS CROUT CRIMINAL JUSTICE CONSULTING LLC. F - 17

45 High Projection Model with AB109 (2011) The high detention population projection is also shown below with an estimated adjustment for additional inmates as a result of AB109 for comparative purposes. It is estimated that there will be 400 inmates added to the ADP by Stanislaus County Detention Population Historical ( ) and Projected ( ) Historical Additional AB109 Inmates High Projection S ECTION F AN A NALYSIS OF L OCAL TRENDS AND C HARACTERISTICS CROUT CRIMINAL JUSTICE CONSULTING LLC. F - 18

46 Stanislaus County Detention Population Projection Adjusted for Peaking Factors There are months in which the Stanislaus County adult detention facility houses more inmates than is reflected by the average daily population for the year. These peaks, or surges, in the population should be factored into the projection. Population figures from 2006 through 2010 were analyzed and each monthly figure was compared to the average daily population for the year. During this period, the highest monthly peak was 11.2% above the average daily population for the year. The projections produced by the statistical model were increased by 11.2% to accommodate months when the population peaks. The adjusted projections are shown below. Projections of the Stanislaus County Average Daily Detention Population - Adjusted for Peak Months Year Low Middle High ,104 1,105 1, ,035 1,041 1, ,000 1,021 1, ,011 1, ,009 1, ,009 1, ,007 1, ,007 1, ,007 1, ,007 1,129 Projections adjusted for peak months are based on the highest monthly peak observed from 2006 to 2010 (which was 11.2% above the average daily population for the year). This adjusted projection for peaking, along with the addition of 400 AB109 inmates by 2015, will serve as the planning baseline for capacity analyses on the next page. S ECTION F AN A NALYSIS OF L OCAL TRENDS AND C HARACTERISTICS CROUT CRIMINAL JUSTICE CONSULTING LLC. F - 19

47 The data on the previous pages was based upon the low projection using data from strictly Stanislaus County Inmates. For this report (2013) we added the projected number of AB 109 inmates to this projections and provided the below charts that reflect the current and projected need for beds. S ECTION F AN A NALYSIS OF L OCAL TRENDS AND C HARACTERISTICS CROUT CRIMINAL JUSTICE CONSULTING LLC. F - 20

48 The following chart incorporates the "peaking factor" described on page F 18 S ECTION F AN A NALYSIS OF L OCAL TRENDS AND C HARACTERISTICS CROUT CRIMINAL JUSTICE CONSULTING LLC. F - 21

49 S ECTION F AN A NALYSIS OF L OCAL TRENDS AND C HARACTERISTICS CROUT CRIMINAL JUSTICE CONSULTING LLC. F - 22

50 Conclusion The final population projection presented in this section is a conservative one. There are clearly numerous factors at work in the County that have kept the population artificially low in recent years. Because a true projection can only rely on available statistics and quantifiable data and not on the estimated calculation of the impact of external future factors, this projection cannot capture the full magnitude of probable increases in the inmate population. What is evident, however, based on the current inmate profile, is that even if the ADP were to grow only slightly, the County is facing a tremendous demand for maximum security housing and Program space due to Realignment. The current shortage of this type of bed, as well as the projected inmate increase and the impact of the State s Realignment Plan, has presented a serious operational challenge as the County attempts to proactively manage in the future. The County must focus all of its future planning on closing the gap in the need for this type of bed. S ECTION F AN A NALYSIS OF L OCAL TRENDS AND C HARACTERISTICS CROUT CRIMINAL JUSTICE CONSULTING LLC. F - 23

51 SECTION G ADEQUACY OF STAFFING LEVEL Since the 2007 Needs Assessment was completed by TRG, the county contracted with Crout and Sida Criminal Justice Consultants to perform the comprehensive Staffing Analysis of the Stanislaus County Detention System. This study was completed and published as a part of the 2008 Master Plan. That report recommended the addition of a number of staff positions for all three detention facilities. We recommend that the reader refer to that report for details on the study. Since the October 2008 Staffing Analysis was published, a number of significant events have occurred in the Stanislaus County Detention System. These included: 32 Beds in Honor Farm Barracks #4 closed by conditions (2008) 64 beds at PSC Minimum Security Beds closed due to a Reduction in Force (RIF) (2009) 172 beds (140 rated beds) at Honor Farm closed due to a fire (June 26, 2010) 86 beds at PSC closed due to RIF.(2011). Since the last update of the Stanislaus County Needs Assessment in 2011, the County has experienced a number of significant additional changes in its Jail System that affect staffing levels. These changes include: Closing 96 additional beds at the Honor Farm Reinstating 86 beds at the PSC that were closed due to a Reduction in Force (RIF). Adding former state inmates under AB 109 (Penal Code 1170 (h)) In addition to these changes, the County is constructing a new 192- bed building on the PSC campus near the existing minimum security unit. The County plans to close the Honor Farm once this new housing unit is completed and transfer staff (and inmates) to the PSC. This will have implications for staffing levels within the near future. While the Board of State and Community Corrections (BSCC) found that the county was in compliance with Title 15, California Code of Regulations, 1027 Staffing, during their April 2011 inspection of the Stanislaus County Detention System, we are of the opinion that the current staffing level may need to be augmented to meet safety and security concerns raised in the 2008 report. Since there have been many changes to the Stanislaus County Jail System during the past five years, we believe that the 2008 Staffing Analysis will need to be updated to address these changes. At the same time, this proposed analysis should evaluate the projected staffing needs for the new housing units and functional use areas that will be added to the Public Safety Center using State AB900 funds. S ECTION F AN A NALYSIS OF L OCAL TRENDS AND C HARACTERISTICS CROUT CRIMINAL JUSTICE CONSULTING LLC. G - 1

52 SECTION H ABILITY TO PROVIDE VISUAL SUPERVISION The 2007 TRG Needs Assessment correctly describes both the strengths and the weaknesses with the current Stanislaus County Detention System. The old Main Jail continues to present staff with extreme difficulty in adequately providing visual supervision of inmates. There are many points in the jail where inmates cannot be readily observed by staff which creates a safety and security problem for both the inmates as well as staff. Conversely, the housing units located at the PSC are open podular designed that provide for exceptional visual supervision. The Intake/Release/Transfer space in the Main Jail also provides challenges for visually supervising inmates. Relocating these services to the PSC in a new IRT center will address visibility issues with the construction of the new functional use areas included in the AB900 construction project. The Honor Farm consists of old dormitory housing that has been reduced in size by the 2010 fire. The 2008 Staffing Analysis for the Detention System attempts to mitigate some of the problems inherent with both the Honor Farm and the old linear Main Jail and the difficulty in visually supervising inmates with adding staff. This issue will be resolved within the next year when the new 192-bed housing unit is opened at PSC. This unit will afford the inmates housed in this building with very good visual supervision by staff. S ECTION H A BILITY TO P ROVIDE VISUAL SUPERVISION CROUT CRIMINAL JUSTICE CONSULTING LLC. H - 1