Quagmire: Washington s struggle against the stalemate in Afghanistan

Transcription

1 Quagmire: Washington s struggle against the stalemate in Afghanistan [Content preview Subscribe to Jane s Defence Weekly for full article] As insurgent groups in Afghanistan expand their territorial and population control, the United States has unveiled a new strategy that will result in Washington and its NATO allies increasing the number of troops on the ground in an effort to break the stalemate in the 16- year-old conflict. Gabriel Dominguez reports On 21 August US President Donald Trump outlined a new approach for Afghanistan aimed at breaking what US generals have referred to as a stalemate in the war against militant groups and to preserve the gains made in the country. Under the South Asia strategy the United States and its NATO allies will send additional troops, increase pressure on Pakistan to tackle militant groups on its side of the border, and also enlist India s support to improve the security situation in Afghanistan. Focused on gaining regional backing, the approach, which will include diplomatic, economic, and military efforts, is set to shift US engagement from a time-based approach to one based on conditions on the ground, according to Trump. In a letter sent to the US Congress in early November he requested an additional USD985 million in overseas contingency operations funding for the US military in Afghanistan, which would also cover 3,500 additional US troops. In his August speech the president also said that Washington would not dictate to the Afghan people how to live, or how to govern their own, complex society. We are not nation-building again. We are killing terrorists, he emphasised. Page 1 of 14

2 Islamic State positions in Afghanistan were targeted in Momand Valley, Achin district, Nangahar Province, by a series of air strikes on 19 October. (US Army/Corporal Matthew DeVirgilio) Trump also signalled a tougher approach to Afghanistan s neighbour, Pakistan, which he said has sheltered the same organisations that try every single day to kill our people. We can no longer be silent about Pakistan s safe havens for terrorist organisations, the Taliban, and other groups that pose a threat to the region and beyond. Pakistan has much to gain from partnering with our effort in Afghanistan. It has much to lose by continuing to harbour criminals and terrorists, he warned. The Pakistani authorities, however, deny these accusations and have repeatedly claimed that Islamabad wishes peace in Afghanistan and supports all initiatives towards this end. We have done everything on the Pakistani side of the border. There are no terrorist sanctuaries inside Pakistan, Major General Asif Ghafoor, the head of the Inter-Services Public Relations organisation the media wing of the Pakistani military was quoted as saying on 7 November. He stated a few days later that more efforts are required on the Afghan side of the border. NATO support Washington s NATO allies have quickly followed suit, with 27 other nations announcing that they will also boost their troop numbers in the coming months. As a result, the size of the NATO-led Resolute Support mission in Afghanistan is set to increase from 13,000 to about 16,000 military personnel, with the United States fielding a large part of the troops. The fresh NATO troops are expected to bolster efforts to train, advise, and assist the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF), which assumed the leadership role on security matters in the country in On 9 November the military alliance also confirmed its commitment to continue funding the Afghan security forces until at least 2020, with partner countries and other allies vowing to collectively provide almost EUR1 billion (USD1.16 billion) per year over and above the United States financial contributions, which form the bulk of foreign aid to the Afghan security forces. As of July the United States has appropriated more than USD73.5 billion to support the ANDSF, according to the US Special Inspector General for Afghan Reconstruction (SIGAR). The unveiling of Washington s new strategy followed repeated calls by top US military commanders earlier this year, including General John Nicholson the commander of both Resolute Support and US Forces-Afghanistan (USFOR-A) for more trainers to support the 320,000-strong ANDSF in handling an extremely challenging security situation in the country. 4R+S Speaking to the US Senate Armed Services Committee on 3 October, US Defense Secretary Jim Mattis pointed out that the main goal of Washington s new approach is to achieve peace and stability in the region, which can only happen if the Taliban reject [the] support or conduct of terrorism. He also described key aspects of the new strategy, which is also known as 4R+S, or regionalise, realign, reinforce, reconcile, and sustain. Page 2 of 14

3 Regionalise refers to Washington s recognition that challenges exist beyond Afghanistan. The strategy adopts a geographic framework with a holistic, comprehensive view. India, Pakistan, Iran, Russia, and China were considered at the outset, rather than focusing only on Afghanistan and then introducing external variables late in our strategic design, said Mattis. Realign refers to the United States shifting efforts to align more advisors who can provide training and advisory support at the battalion and brigade level. Under the previous operational construct, advisors would be limited to the corps level. The fighting will continue to be carried out by our Afghan partners, but our advisors will accompany tactical units to advise, assist, and bring NATO fire support to bear when needed, said the defence secretary at the time, adding, Make no mistake: this is combat duty, but the Afghan forces remain in the lead for the fighting. Reinforce refers to the additional US troops now arriving in Afghanistan to extend NATO s advisory effort to those local troops that have yet to receive it, while Reconcile refers to the desired outcome from the military operations. Mattis also announced new rules of engagement, stating that US troops operating in the country now have more freedom to strike Taliban and insurgent targets because they no longer need to be within a certain enemy proximity before engaging. Previous rules of engagement and operating principles included a requirement for proximity of the enemy to be engaged by our air forces so I ve removed proximity, Mattis told the House Armed Services Committee that same day. A new advisory approach US Joint Chief of Staff (JCS) Chairman General Dunford, who also testified before the US Senate Armed Services Committee on 3 October, stated that he believes the new US operational approach should be able to break the stalemate in Afghanistan by expanding our advisory efforts to the tactical level, increasing the combat support we provide through our Afghan partners, and enhancing authorities to our commanders. This means that experienced, senior coalition leaders will be advising Afghan commanders where it will do the most good: at the brigade or even kandak [battalion] level, said the general. Their efforts will be fully enabled by the support and authorities needed for the Afghans to take the fight to the enemy, he stated, emphasising that coalition countries will provide air support, intelligence expertise, command-and-control capabilities, logistics, and other help as needed. Withdrawal went too fast The JCS chairman also pointed out why he thought the war in Afghanistan had reached a stalemate despite extensive US and international commitments. He said the situation developed after the International Security Assistance Force combat mission in Afghanistan transitioned into the current Resolute Support advisory effort at the end of Since January 2015 we have advised and accompanied Afghan special operations units at the tactical level, but our advisory effort for conventional forces has generally been limited to the Page 3 of 14

4 Afghan corps and institutional level, the general said. We also reduced the aviation, artillery, and intelligence support provided to the Afghan forces. The conventional forces did their best, but they were not prepared to succeed in combat against the Taliban, Al-Qaeda, and the Islamic State, said Gen Dunford. Gradual progress Given that the ANDSF have had the leadership role on Afghan security matters for more than four years, a lot of the attention has been given to the current state and capabilities of the country s armed forces. The ANDSF have made some progress in a number of fields, with Mattis saying on 3 October that all six Afghan military corps are now engaged in offensive operations for the first time in the 16-year conflict. Soldiers from the Afghan National Army at a military training centre on the outskirts of Herat during training by Italian soldiers in February. US Defense Secretary Jim Mattis said on 3 October that all six Afghan military corps were engaged in offensive operations for the first time in the 16-year-old conflict in Afghanistan. (AFP/Getty Images) They are also suffering fewer casualties than in 2016 and preventing the Taliban and other militant groups from seizing district or provincial centres, generally forcing the insurgents into decentralised small-scale ambushes and the use of improvised explosive devices, he added. As Gen Nicholson explained in early November, the ANDSF were on the offensive this fighting season in up to six core areas at a time, which enabled them to achieve some local tactical successes in restive provinces such as Helmand, Kandahar, Kunduz, and Uruzgan. Page 4 of 14

5 Leadership has played a big role in the successes, the general said, with Afghan President Ashraf Ghani having replaced five of the six corps commanders at the beginning of the fighting season. This lowered the average age of the core commanders by 10 years, and they came into their duties with more energy, frankly, and a more offensive mindset, and it showed on the battlefield, he said. After the [Taliban s] failure to take any provincial capital we saw the enemy shift to districts and attempt to maintain their relevance through suicide attacks. I will point out that this is a sign of failure: the fact that they [the Taliban] had to shift from trying to seize and hold new terrain to attempting to just inflict casualties to maintain relevance in their eyes, said Gen Nicholson in Brussels. He also told reporters that Afghan forces have proven their mettle in the time of greatest risk to the Afghan government. We fought most of the year at the lowest level of capability that we ve ever had in the 16 years [of the Afghan conflict], Gen Nicholson said. It was the lowest level of capability and the highest level of risk we ve faced in this time. Part of the reason for this low level of capability, he added, is the NATO train-and-assist mission was not completely resourced. We were only at an 80% fill on our combined joint statement of requirements, he pointed out. US commanders in Afghanistan have also stated that they are pleased with the progress of local forces towards providing their own air support with newly supplied aircraft. We saw great strides in the Afghan Air Force s capability to integrate with ground forces in southern Afghanistan, Colonel Larry Burris, commander of the 3rd Infantry Brigade Combat Team, 101st Airborne Division [Air Assault], told reporters during a 6 September Pentagon briefing. Unresolved issues Despite the international commitment to build and strengthen the ANDSF, the Afghan forces continue to struggle with a series of issues such as gaps in military capabilities, casualty evacuation, and administrative skills, along with an over-reliance on static checkpoints, according to the SIGAR. While the NATO-led training mission has established some elite Afghan military units, particularly special forces, and improved the overall training of the ANDSF, the level of progress has been modest, with the security forces still relying to some extent on assistance from international forces, according to Michael Kugelman, the Asia Program Deputy Director and Senior Associate for South Asia at the Washington-based Woodrow Wilson Center. The incapacities remain formidable. They consist mainly of air power and intelligence collection, with the absence of these capacities badly hampering counter-insurgency efforts, Kugelman told Jane s. It is hard for ground forces to make progress against the Taliban when they cannot count on enough air power to provide support to these ground forces. And it is difficult to plan out how to engage the Taliban or how to prevent mass-casualty attacks in urban areas when you lack the ability to generate sufficient intelligence in advance, he added. Page 5 of 14

6 Current plans for the ANDSF to stand on their own seem to rely heavily on the use of Afghan elite units, according to Rebecca Zimmerman, a policy researcher at the California-based-RAND Corporation. However, she told Jane s that building these into a force large enough to compensate for deficiencies in the Afghan forces will almost certainly require diluting the very quality and reliability that make these forces so important. Moreover, Zimmerman added, this would shift the relative influence of Afghan elite forces compared with that of the regular forces, which could also upset some of the power balances within the ANDSF. Perhaps even more alarming, according to Kugelman, are the non-battlefield-related obstacles affecting some of the troops, such as illiteracy and the reported low levels of morale associated with desertions. International donors have poured money into programmes to build literacy, but you still have the reality of Afghan troops frequently being unable to read signs or maps or going to the front lines under the influence of drugs. These are fundamental challenges that are very difficult to solve, Kugelman noted. Modernising ANDSF equipment In an effort to close the military capability gap, Washington s new strategy is directly connected to ongoing efforts to bolster and modernise Afghan military equipment: a move also intended to reduce the ANDSF s reliance on support from coalition troops and to increase interoperability with allied forces. Textron has been contracted to supply more MSFVs, based on the M1117 Armoured Security Vehicle, to the ANA. (Textron) Page 6 of 14

7 For example, the ANDSF are seeking to enhance their level of protection and firepower by acquiring new armoured fighting vehicles (AFVs). There have been two important AFV-related sales to the Afghan National Army (ANA) this year: one for the Textron Marine & Land Systems Commando Select, also known by the ANA as the Mobile Strike Force Vehicle (MSFV), which is based on the M1117 Armoured Security Vehicle; and another for 6,576 capability expansion kits for the AM General M1151 and M1152 Humvees currently in service with the Afghan security forces. The value of these two Foreign Military Sales (FMS) contracts awarded by the US Army is USD378.9 million, which shows the kind of financial commitment required to strengthen the capabilities of the ANA and the Afghan National Police (ANP). Announced on 18 October, the USD333 million contract awarded to Textron covers the production and delivery of up to 255 MSFVs by October 2024, with the first 55 set to be handed over in Most of these vehicles are likely to be armed with a machine gun or a 40 mm automatic grenade launcher mounted within an Objective Gunner Protection Kit turret, while some are likely to be delivered in an ambulance configuration. More Humvees In August 2016 AM General was awarded a USD356 million modification contract to manufacture and deliver 1,673 M1100-series Humvees to the US government for further delivery to the ANA and ANP. AM General announced in August 2016 that it had been awarded a USD356 million contract to manufacture and deliver 1,673 Humvees, including 1,259 units of the M1151A1B1 model (shown here). (AM General) The contract covered the supply of 1,259 units of the M1151A1B1 variant and 414 units of the M1152A1B2 model, which can be configured to transport up to eight personnel under an armoured Page 7 of 14

8 shelter. The vehicles are expected to replenish the stocks of Afghan Humvees that have been damaged beyond economic repair. About 13 months later the DoD announced that it had awarded AM General a USD45.9 million contract for capability expansion kits designed to upgrade M1151 Humvees from their base protection level to the up-armoured M1151A1B1 standard. Moreover, an undisclosed number of additional Humvees will be handed over to the ANDSF in the near future as part of a contract announced by AM General on 29 August. Bolstering the AAF However, air support remains a vital enabler for the ANDSF. To this end the Afghan Air Force (AAF) will receive a further six Sierra Nevada Corporation (SNC) Embraer A-29 Super Tucano light-attack turboprop aircraft under a deal announced on 25 October. The Afghan Air Force will get a further six Super Tucanos to add to the 20 already received. (438th Air Expeditionary Wing) The aircraft will be added to the 20 already received by the service. Of these, 12 have so far been delivered to Afghanistan, most of which are being used to support ground operations. The remaining seven (one was lost in a US-based training accident and is yet to be replaced) are located at Moody Air Force Base in Georgia for use as training platforms ahead of their eventual relocation to Kabul. About a month earlier, on 18 September, the AAF received its first two Sikorsky UH-60 Black Hawk utility helicopters. The service is set to receive 53 Black Hawks as the United States transitions the country s military over from its approximately 80 Russian-built Mil Mi-17 Hip helicopters. Page 8 of 14

9 A US serviceman supervises the unloading of the first of 53 Black Hawk helicopters for the Afghan Air Force. (US Air Force) The Black Hawks, which are former US Army aircraft, are undergoing a major refurbishment and upgrade before being delivered to Afghanistan. They are reported to have performed well in Afghanistan s difficult and mountainous environment, but are far harder to maintain than Mi-17s, meaning that the AAF will likely be reliant on contracted maintainers to keep them in working order. A few days earlier, on 7 September, the US DoD announced that it had awarded a USD1.39 billion contract to MD Helicopters Inc (MDHI) to provide 150 of its MD 530F Cayuse Warrior light attack and reconnaissance helicopters for allied operators. MDHI will provide additional MD 530F helicopters to the AAF. (US DoD) Page 9 of 14

10 Although the DoD did not disclose the identity of the FMS customers, MDHI told Jane s that the AAF will receive 30 platforms in addition to the 26 the service already fields. The AAF also operates four Mil Mi-25 Hind assault helicopters that were gifted from India. The Afghan government is also known to have made a request to purchase an undisclosed number of Mi-35 attack helicopters from Russia, after the AAF s Mi-35 fleet was retired in MDHI will provide 150 of its MD 530F helicopters to FMS customers under a USD1.39 billion contract awarded on 5 September, with 30 of these platforms bound for Afghanistan. (IHS Markit/Gareth Jennings) Other aircraft fielded by the service include the Pilatus PC-12/47E special mission aircraft, the Cessna T-182 trainer; the Lockheed Martin C-130H Hercules transport; the Cessna C-208B Grand Caravan utility aircraft; and the Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) Cheetal (Alouette) light utility helicopter. Additionally, on 1 September the US DoD announced that it had awarded US company Orbital ATK a USD69.4 million contract to provide the AAF with AC-208 armed intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) aircraft. A USAF spokesperson told Jane s on 15 September that the contract includes three Cessna C- 208B EX Grand Caravan light utility turboprops and is aimed at satisfying a requirement to recapitalise the AAF s current ISR capability gaps. Afghanistan will also receive five new Insitu ScanEagle unmanned aircraft systems (UASs) under a USD19.6 million contract announced by the US DoD on 25 July. Page 10 of 14

11 An Insitu ScanEagle seen at the company's test facility in eastern Oregon. Afghanistan will receive a follow-on order for five new ScanEagle UASs to be delivered by the end of April (IHS Markit/Gareth Jennings) High-profile attacks However, despite the growing US and NATO efforts to beef up the training and capabilities of the ANDSF, the security situation in Afghanistan does not seem to be improving. In recent months militant groups, including the Taliban and the Islamic State, have intensified their attacks against government forces in what appears to be an effort to tighten their grip in parts of the country and/or portray a picture of chaos to discredit the central administration in Kabul. Dozens of Afghan security personnel were killed and hundreds of others injured in October in a wave of militant attacks targeting military bases and police compounds in several Afghan provinces. One of the deadliest attacks took place on the evening of 18 October when Taliban insurgents attacked an ANA base in Maiwand District in the southern province of Kandahar, killing at least 43 of the 60 Afghan soldiers posted there, according to the Ministry of Defense in Kabul. In July at least 26 Afghan soldiers were killed and 13 others injured when Taliban fighters stormed another ANA base in the same province. In late May dozens of people were killed and hundreds of others injured when a vehicle-borne improvised explosive device was detonated near the diplomatic area in Kabul. In early March at least 30 people were killed and dozens wounded when militants dressed as medical staff stormed a military hospital in central Kabul. Page 11 of 14

12 Taliban gaining territory The ANDSF still appear to be losing territory to insurgents, according to a 30 October report issued by the SIGAR. As of 24 August 54 of the 407 districts of Afghanistan s 34 provinces were under insurgent control (13) or influence (41), which is an increase of nine districts during the past six months, SIGAR s John Sopko quoted USFOR-A as saying. This means that 13.3% of the country s districts are now under insurgent control or influence: a more than 2% increase during the past six months and a 5% increase compared with the same period in In terms of population the SIGAR quoted USFOR-A as reporting that 3.7 million Afghans (11.4% of the population) were living in districts under insurgent control or influence. This was an increase of 700,000 people over the previous six months. Of the 32.5 million people living in Afghanistan, USFOR-A determined that the majority, 20.7 million (63.7%), were still living in areas controlled or influenced by the government, while another 8.1 million people (24.9%) were living in contested areas. The number of contested districts (122) remained mostly unchanged, representing 30% of Afghanistan s districts, according to the SIGAR. The SIGAR identified the provinces with the largest percentage of insurgent-controlled or - influenced districts as being Uruzgan (with five of its six districts under insurgent control or influence), Kunduz (five of seven districts), and Helmand (9 of 14 districts). Increased use of air power The United States has responded to the insurgent attacks by, among other things, increasing the use of air power either to provide air support to US and local forces on the ground or in an effort to directly target Taliban or Islamic State militants. For example, the USAF released more ordnance in October than in any other month during the past seven years, according to data by US Air Forces Central Command (AFCENT). The data shows that USAF aircraft released 653 weapons in October as part of Resolute Support. These figures are higher than those for the previous months of September (414), August (503), and July (350), and mark a substantial increase compared with the September 2016 figures (162). The last time the USAF used that many weapons in Afghanistan in a single month was in November 2010 (866) during the height of a US troop surge under the administration of thenpresident Barack Obama. According to the latest AFCENT statistics, the USAF released 3,554 weapons in Afghanistan between 1 January and 31 October this year, compared with the 1,337 released during the whole of More weapons were released during this nine-month period than in any full year since Page 12 of 14

13 In April the USAF used a 21,000 lb GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast (MOAB) bomb to strike what the US military described as an Islamic State tunnel complex in Achin district, Nangarhar. The move marked the first time the weapon was used in combat. The 9.45 m long GBU-43/B MOAB, which is dropped from Lockheed Martin MC-130H aircraft, was used to target an Islamic State tunnel complex in Achin district, Nangarhar, in April. (Department of Defense) Last year there were eight Taliban attacks on cities around the country. This year there was one. Whenever the enemy attempted to mass, he was subjected to US airpower and suffered heavy, heavy casualties much higher than [those suffered by] the Afghans, said Gen Nicholson in early November. Civilians bearing the brunt The poor security situation in the country is also highlighted in the latest quarterly report of the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) on the Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict. According to the October report, UNAMA documented 8,019 civilian casualties (2,640 deaths and 5,379 injured) in Afghanistan between 1 January and 30 September, which represented an overall decrease in civilian casualties of 6% compared with the same period in The number of civilian deaths, however, increased by 1%, while the number of injured civilians was reduced by 9%. According to UNAMA, anti-government elements caused 5,167 civilian casualties (1,760 deaths and 3,407 injuries) during the first nine months of this year: a 1% decrease from last year. Of these civilian casualties, UNAMA attributed 66% to the Taliban, 10% to the Islamic State in Khorasan Province, and the remainder to unidentified anti-government elements. Page 13 of 14

14 Compared with the same period in 2016 civilian casualties attributed to pro-government forces were reduced by 19% to 1,578 (560 deaths and 1,018 injured), over half of which occurred during ground fighting. The remaining civilian casualties occurred as a result of crossfire where UNAMA could not identify the specific perpetrator. Despite the overall reduction in civilian casualties, UNAMA reiterated its concern at what it referred to as continued increases in civilian casualties from aerial attacks, particularly among women and children. For the full version and more content: Jane's Defence Industry and Markets Intelligence Centre This analysis is taken from Jane s Defence Industry & Markets Intelligence Centre, which provides world-leading analysis of commercial, industrial and technological defence developments, budget and programme forecasts, and insight into new and emerging defence markets around the world. Jane s defence industry and markets news and analysis is also available within Jane s Defence Weekly. To learn more and to subscribe to Jane s Defence Weekly online, offline or print visit For advertising solutions visit Jane s Advertising Page 14 of 14