BCoDE Burden of Communicable Diseases in Europe Improving the usability and communication of burden of disease methods and outputs: the BCoDE toolkit

Transcription

1 BCoDE Burden of Communicable Diseases in Europe Improving the usability and communication of burden of disease methods and outputs: the BCoDE toolkit application Alessandro Cassini, European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control Microbiological risk assessment, Milan, 16 October 2015

2 Risk ranking study A very relevant subject, given current pressure on health budgets: the allocation of finite disease surveillance and control resources among competing alternatives, infectious diseases in this case. -Del Rio Vilas et al., Eurosurveillance, 7 July 2011

3 Cycle of preparedness activities Source: ECDC

4 Cycle of preparedness activities Source: ECDC

5 Approaches to ranking risk Type of study Notes Examples Quantitative Burden of Disease Most suitable for established diseases with strong surveillance data -ECDC BCoDE study Quantitative H-index Quantitative multicriteria decision analysis Semi-quantitative and qualitative Qualitative decision algorithms Bias with regards to what has been published and cited; MERS or SARS would have not shown up Stochastic; criteria weighted across experts; provides continuous score Expert solicitation leading to discrete scores Based on pre-defined decision-trees; not a ranking approach per se -McIntyre et al, PLoS One, Havelaar et al, PLoS One, Humblet et al, EID, Cardoen et al, Foodborne Pathogens, Gilsdorf & Kraus, Eurosurveillance, Morgan et al, Epidemiol Infect 2009 Qualitative weighted risk analysis Qualitative Strategic Foresight, scenario-based Simplistic likelihood/magnitude scale Focus on longer-term time frames and scenarios -ECDC climate change ranking (Lindgren et al, 2012) -UK Foresight Study -ECDC future threat scenario study

6 Burden of Communicable Diseases in Europe project (BCoDE) ECDC has initiated the BCoDE study in order to assess the comparative impact of infectious diseases in Europe A large academic and public health consortium is involved in framing the methodology and developing disease models Notified data to ECDC through TESSy is corrected for underestimation BCoDE 2015 will soon be published

7 The Toolkit for burden estimation: a service for EU member states A user-friendly and ready-to-use toolkit for communicable disease burden estimation will be released in 2015 EU member states and EEA countries are encouraged to employ the toolkit and undergo their national burden of communicable diseases estimation

8 Introducing the tool: the main page

9 An embedded tutorial

10 with a walkthrough or pop-ups

11 Selecting the countries and the diseases

12 Main inputs: number of cases and factors adjusting for under-estimation

13 Critically exploring the outcome tree

14 Running the models

15 Disease-specific detailed results

16 Considering the impact of sequelae

17 Tridimensional bubble charts

18 Ranking of diseases: the table

19 Age and gender information

20 Objectives of the toolkit not only a risk ranking exercise

21 Evidence-based approach to health description

22 Overview of surveillance data quality and availability

23 Facilitate communication of complex information to decision makers BCoDE 2015 relevant graphs and tables will soon be published on peer-reviewed journals

24 Provide a tool for planning and prioritisation: ranking of diseases change BCoDE 2015 relevant graphs and tables will soon be published on peer-reviewed journals

25 Provide a tool for planning and prioritisation: TBE in Slovenia, measles outbreaks, FWDs BCoDE 2015 relevant graphs and tables will soon be published on peer-reviewed journals

26 In practice January 2015: EFSA Scientific opinion recommends the BCoDE toolkit as the gold standard topdown approach to rank pathogens (in combination with irisk)

27 Questions and thank you For further suggestions, comments and questions please