WORLD EMPLOYMENT SOCIAL OUTLOOK

Transcription

1 WORLD EMPLOYMENT SOCIAL OUTLOOK TRENDS 2018

2 WORLD EMPLOYMENT SOCIAL OUTLOOK TRENDS 2018 International Labour Office Geneva

3 Copyright International Labour Organization 2018 First published 2018 Publications of the International Labour Office enjoy copyright under Protocol 2 of the Universal Copyright Convention. Nevertheless, short excerpts from them may be reproduced without authorization, on condition that the source is indicated. For rights of reproduction or translation, application should be made to ILO Publications (Rights and Licensing), International Labour Office, CH-1211 Geneva 22, Switzerland, or by rights@ilo.org. The International Labour Office welcomes such applications. Libraries, institutions and other users registered with a reproduction rights organization may make copies in accordance with the licences issued to them for this purpose. Visit to find the reproduction rights organization in your country. World Employment and Social Outlook: Trends 2018 International Labour Office Geneva: ILO, 2018 ISBN (print) ISBN (web pdf) ISBN (epub) International Labour Office employment / unemployment / labour policy / economic recovery / regional development / Africa / Asia / Caribbean / Europe / EU countries / Latin America / Middle East / North America / Pacific ILO Cataloguing in Publication Data The designations employed in ILO publications, which are in conformity with United Nations practice, and the presentation of material therein do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the International Labour Office concerning the legal status of any country, area or territory or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers. The responsibility for opinions expressed in signed articles, studies and other contributions rests solely with their authors, and publication does not constitute an endorsement by the International Labour Office of the opinions expressed in them. Reference to names of firms and commercial products and processes does not imply their endorsement by the International Labour Office, and any failure to mention a particular firm, commercial product or process is not a sign of disapproval. ILO publications and digital products can be obtained through major booksellers and digital distribution platforms, or ordered directly from ilo@turpin-distribution.com. For more information, visit our website: or contact ilopubs@ilo.org. This publication was produced by the Document and Publications Production, Printing and Distribution Branch (PRODOC) of the ILO. Graphic and typographic design, layout and composition, copy editing, proofreading, printing, electronic publishing and distribution. PRODOC endeavours to use paper sourced from forests managed in an environmentally sustainable and socially responsible manner. Code: DTP-WEI-CORR-REPRO

4 Acknowledgements The World Employment and Social Outlook: Trends 2018 was prepared by the Labour Market Trends and Policy Evaluation Unit of the ILO Research Department, headed a.i. by Veronica Escudero. The report was produced by Stefan Kühn, Santo Milasi and Sheena Yoon. Elva Lopez Mourelo and Christian Viegelahn provided important contributions. Judy Rafferty provided valuable research assistance. The forecast data underlying this report are derived from the ILO Trends Econometric Models, managed by Stefan Kühn and Steven Kapsos. The report would not have been possible without the feedback and baseline labour market information provided by the team led by Steven Kapsos, notably David Bescond, Roger Gomis, Rosina Gammarano, Yves Perardel and Marie-Claire Sodergren of the ILO Department of Statistics. Excellent comments and suggestions were also provided by L. Jeff Johnson, Deputy Director of the Research Department and Sangheon Lee, Director a.i. of the Research Department. The ILO Research Department wishes to acknowledge the comments and suggestions provided by Deborah Greenfield, Deputy Director-General for Policy and James Howard, Senior Adviser to the Director-General. The team would like to acknowledge the input and suggestions of ILO colleagues including Adam Elsheiki, Akira Isawa, Antonia Asenjo, Catherine Saget, Christian Viegelahn, Claudia Ruiz, Elizabeth Manrique Echeverria, Eric Gravel, Fernanda Dutra, Frank Hagemann, Guillaume Delautre, Helmut Schwarzer, Ira Postolachi, Jeronim Capaldo, Juan Chacaltana, Ken Chamuva Shawa, Maria José Chamorro, Mariangels Fortuny, Pelin Sekerler Richiardi, Richard Horne, Roger Gomis, Sara Elder, Steven Kapsos, Takaaki Kizu and Yves Perardel. Excellent comments were also received from Dawn Holland (United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs) and Damian Grimshaw (University of Manchester). The authors are also grateful for the suggestions from the ILO Regional Offices for Africa, the Arab States, Asia and the Pacific, Europe and Central Asia, and Latin America and the Caribbean. Acknowledgements iii

5 Table of contents Acknowledgements iii Executive summary 1 1. Global employment and social trends 5 2. Employment and social trends by region 11 Africa 11 Americas 15 Arab States 18 Asia and the Pacific 20 Europe and Central Asia Structural transformation and implications for future job quality 29 Long-term trends in sectoral employment 30 Sectoral variation in employment arrangements and working conditions 33 Projected change in employment conditions due to sectoral employment trends Population ageing and future labour market challenges 45 Appendices A. Country groupings by region and income level 53 B. Labour market estimates and projections 55 C. Changes to the estimates and projections: Trends Econometric Models (TEM) 2017 versus D. Countries, sources and periods used in the analysis of employment conditions at the sectoral level 61 E. Labour market and social statistics by ILO region 64 Bibliography 79 Table of contents v

6 Boxes 1.1 Slow growth: The new normal? Reducing decent work deficits in times of low growth The revision of global unemployment Latest trends in the social unrest index Do firms matter? SMEs and the working poverty gender gap Estimating the impact of sectoral employment change on employment conditions The impact of population ageing on the economy Boosting the care industry for the future of (decent) work 49 Figures 1.1 Comparison of global unemployment rates and levels, ILO Trends Econometric Models, November 2016 and November Change in the social unrest index, Share of global labour force by region, 1990 and 2030 (percentages) Composite measure of labour underutilization and unemployment rate, (percentages) Share of informal employment by sector of activity, latest year (percentages of total employment) Employment shares by aggregate sector in 1991, 2005 and 2016 (percentages) Share of informal jobs by sector, latest year (percentages of employment) Unemployment and potential labour force, 2016 (percentages) Employment growth decomposition by type of contract in the Euro Area, (percentages) Employment shares by aggregate sector and income group, Projected change in employment share by detailed sector, Incidence of vulnerable and informal employment by sector and income group Incidence of temporary and part-time employment by sector and income group Incidence of different working conditions by sector and income group SME employment share by country income group, (percentages) Average change in working poverty gender gap, (percentage points) Impact of sectoral employment change on employment indicators, Old-age economic dependency ratio, (percentages) Average age of the labour force, (years) 47 C1 Decomposition of unemployment revision into its components, Tables 1.1 Unemployment, vulnerable employment and working poverty trends and projections, Unemployment, vulnerable employment and working poverty trends and projections, Africa, Unemployment trends and projections, Northern America, Unemployment, vulnerable employment and working poverty trends and projections, Latin America and the Caribbean, Unemployment, vulnerable employment and working poverty trends and projections, Arab States, Unemployment, vulnerable employment and working poverty trends and projections, Asia and the Pacific, Unemployment trends and projections, Northern, Southern and Western Europe, Unemployment, employment and vulnerable employment trends and projections, Eastern Europe and Central and Western Asia, C1 Comparison of global unemployment levels and rates, November 2017 versus November E1 Unemployment rate and total unemployment: Trends and projections E2 Vulnerable employment rate and total vulnerable employment: Trends and projections E3 Working poverty rate and total working poverty: Trends and projections vi World Employment and Social Outlook Trends 2018