Expert Group Meeting on Emerging ICT Developments and Opportunities for Enhancing Cooperation for Regional Connectivity Stimulating Universal Access to Broadband in ABBMN Countries 22-24 November 2010 Bangkok, Thailand Sameer Sharma, Senior Advisor ITU Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific International Telecommunication Union 1
Agenda ITU Vision on Broadband Why Some Countries are So Successful? Status of ABBMN Countries Reasons for Gaps in Uptake of Broadband How to Stimulate Broadband? Conclusions 2
The ITU Vision on Broadband Broadband needs to be considered as basic national infrastructure, as it will fundamentally reshape the world in the 21st century and change the way services are delivered from e health e to e education e education to e commerce to e government. e 3
Broadband: National Perspective Promoting economic and social development Enhancing productivity and competitiveness Helping job creation and opportunities Raises rural income in developing countries Gender equality and empowerment of women Bringing economies out of economic crisis Creating knowledge based society 4
Why Some Countries Are So Successful? Realizing the role of ICT in national development Creating clear vision, targets and implementation strategies for ICT penetration and use Support for building national backbone networks Creating necessary supplies & critical demand for e applications Enabling environment: Effective competitive environment, investment in infrastructure, affordable access Promoting public private partnership 5
Investment in Broadband Source: Qiang and Rossotto, 2009; Stimulates Economic Development 6
Correlation of ICT Levels and Income Levels: South Asia 4,0 3,5 Maldives 3,0 2,5 Bangladesh Sri Lanka IDI 2008 2,0 1,5 India Pakistan Bhutan R² = 0.89 Observed Logarithmic 1,0 0,5 Nepal (0.69 including Bhutan) 0,0 0 500 1.000 1.500 2.000 2.500 3.000 3.500 4.000 GNI per capita US$ 2008 Countries with lower IDI and GNI have potential to stimulate broadband by creating enabling environment and promoting investment in infrastructure Source: ITU 7
Impact of Broadband on Innovation Innovation efficiency vs. broadband penetration Innovation efficiency vs. broadband penetration ratio Broadband facilitates innovation and entrepreneurship Countries with a higher penetration see greater innovation Source: World Economic Forum Broadband stokes innovation and it does so exponentially 8
Announced Government Support for ICT Development Strong Belief that ICT Can Turn Around Source: World Economic Forum 9
Status of ABBMN Countries International Telecommunication Union 10
1.Where Do ABBMN Countries Stand? IDI Value Access sub-index Use sub-index Skills sub-index Economy 2008 2007 2008 2007 2008 2007 2008 2007 WORLD* 3,58 3,32 4,07 3,76 1,70 1,39 6,37 6,30 DEVELOPING* 2,70 2,49 3,06 2,79 0,91 0,71 5,53 5,47 SOUTH ASIA* 1,96 1,80 2,34 2,08 0,33 0,24 4,45 4,35 Maldives 3,54 3,11 4,61 4,00 1,15 0,76 6,16 6,02 Bhutan 1,62 1,48 1,90 1,74 0,25 0,20 3,82 3,54 Bangladesh 1,41 1,34 1,78 1,59 0,01 0,01 3,48 3,48 Nepal 1,34 1,27 1,37 1,31 0,06 0,05 3,83 3,61 Afghanistan NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA *: simple averages ABBMN countries lag behind especially in the use sub-index, which includes fixed broadband, mobile broadband and Internet usage indicators Source: ITU 11
2. Regional ICT Price Basket Average developed Maldives Sri Lanka Bhutan India Pakistan Average South Asia Average world Average developing Nepal Bangladesh 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 ICT Price Basket Value 2009 Fixed telephone share Mobile cellular share Fixed broadband share ABBMN countries have potential to repeat the success of mobile in broadband Source: ITU 12
3. Fixed Broadband Prices in South Asia Fixed broadband sub-basket Source: ITU 13 4,4 10,4 9,4 12,7 5,2 15,6 10,0 28,5 14,6 50,2 16,5 45,4 21,5 64,1 50,4 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Bangladesh Monetary units % monthly GNI per capita Sri Lanka Maldives India Bhutan Pakistan South Asia Nepal US$ PPP $ % monthly GNI per capita
4. Fixed Broadband Penetration in South Asia subscriptions per 100 inhabitants 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 5,8 0,8 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 Upper-middle-income world Lower-middle-income world Low-income world 0,3 0,03 0,00 Maldives Sri Lanka India South Asia Bhutan Pakistan Nepal Bangladesh Afghanistan Lower-middle-income Low-income Negligible in Afghanistan and Bangladesh Barely 0.3 % in Nepal, and 0.4 % in Bhutan Only Maldives has a higher value: 5.8 % Source: ITU 14
5. Mobile Broadband Penetration in South Asia Mobile broadband penetration subscriptions per 100 inhabitants 35,0 30,0 25,0 20,0 15,0 10,0 5,0 0,0 32,5 5,7 1,7 0,05 0,00 0,00 Upper-middle-income world Lower-middle-income world Low-income world 0,00 0,00 0,00 Maldives Sri Lanka Bhutan India Nepal South Asia Pakistan Bangladesh Afghanistan Lower-middle-income Low-income Not available or negligible in Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Nepal Only 1.7 % in Bhutan, but 32,5 % in Maldives Issue of 3G spectrum licenses a major driver for broadband in ABBMN Source: ITU 15
6. ICT and Related Indicators: Afghanistan Tertiary enrolment 2007 2008 Secondary enrolment Literacy Mobile cellular subscriptions 0,35 0,30 0,25 0,20 0,15 0,10 0,05 0,00 International Internet bandw idth Fixed telephone lines Households w ith a computer Mobile cellular broadband subscribers Fixed broadband subscribers Internet users Households w ith Internet access Infrastructure Sharing on TV Hill Top., Afghanistan Training for Internet Exchange and AfCERT Axes: normalized values to a goalpost. Source: ITU, UNESCO 16
7. ICT and Related Indicators: Bangladesh Secondary enrolment Tertiary enrolment 2007 2008 Mobile cellular broadband subscribers Literacy Fixed broadband subscribers Mobile cellular subscriptions 0,7 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 0,0 International Internet bandw idth Internet users Fixed telephone lines Households w ith a computer Households w ith Internet access Transformation from current Low Broadband Penetration towards Digital Bangladesh MIS System for Bangladesh Cost Modeling Workshop Axes: normalized values to a goalpost. Source: ITU, UNESCO 17
8. ICT and Related Indicators: Bhutan Secondary enrolment Tertiary enrolment Mobile cellular broadband subscribers 2007 2008 Literacy Fixed broadband subscribers Mobile cellular subscriptions 0,7 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 0,0 International Internet bandw idth Internet users Fixed telephone lines Households w ith a computer Households w ith Internet access On its way to achieve Universal Access by 2011 Connecting Schools with LCCD Workshop on VoIP & NGN Axes: normalized values to a goalpost. Source: ITU, UNESCO 18
9. ICT and Related Indicators: Maldives 2007 2008 Secondary enrolment Literacy Mobile cellular subscriptions 1,0 0,8 0,6 0,4 International Internet bandw idth Fixed telephone lines 0,2 Tertiary enrolment 0,0 Households w ith a computer Mobile cellular broadband subscribers Fixed broadband subscribers Internet users Households w ith Internet access Highest IDI amongst ABBMN countries Highest Mobile Penetration rate Lowest ICT Price basket Consistent Mobile Broadband Proliferation Axes: normalized values to a goalpost. Source: ITU, UNESCO Technological Options for Connectivity 19
10. ICT and Related Indicators: Nepal Secondary enrolment Tertiary enrolment 2007 2008 Mobile cellular broadband subscribers Literacy Fixed broadband subscribers Mobile cellular subscriptions 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 0,0 International Internet bandw idth Internet users IDI Value 1.34 ( 4th in ABBMN) Fixed telephone lines Households w ith a computer Households w ith Internet access Low International Internet Connectivity Low availability of stable electricity Axes: normalized values to a goalpost. Source: ITU, UNESCO E-Health Project : Nepal Quality of Service :NT 20
Reasons for the Gap? International Telecommunication Union 21
1.Significant Income Differences in the Region GNI/capita US$ 4.000 3.500 3.000 2.500 2.000 1.500 1.000 500 0,77 3.640 lower-middle-income 0,76 0,62 0,61 0,61 1.900 1.780 1.040 963 0,57 950 low-income 0,54 0,55 520 400 0,35 370 0,9 0,8 0,7 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 HDI 0 0 Maldives Bhutan Sri Lanka India South Asia Pakistan Bangladesh Nepal Afghanistan GNI per capita Atlas method (2008) HDI (2007) Growth build on broadband has the potential to boost GNI per capita and it s growth does not need to wait for the GNI per capita to rise. Source: WB, UNDP 22
2.Demographic Parameters Are Also Relevant Urban population (%) 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% South Asia: 305 inhab/km² Pakistan Bhutan India Afghanistan Ne pal Sri Lanka Maldives Bangladesh South Asia: 29% urban population 5% 0% 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 Population density (inhabitants/km²) size : percentage of total population in the main urban agglomeration Source: UNSD, 2007 23
3. Slow Pace of Infrastructure Deployment Fixed Network Infrastructure Usage of the fixed telephone network to provide fixed broadband, 2009 per 100 inhabitants 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 15,8 36,5% 5,78 11,8% 9,2% 3,8 0,44 2,8 0,26 0,9 3,3% 0,8% 0,03 0,5 0,00 Maldives Bhutan Nepal Bangladesh Afghanistan 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% % fixed broadband / fixed telephone Fixed telephone lines Fixed broadband subscriptions ratio (%) Improve fixed broadband by using the fixed telephone infrastructure in place Stimulate demand to create the right incentives for a fixed broadband 24 Source: ITU
4. Low Personal Computer Penetration Ratio of households with Internet access to households with a PC in ABBMN countries, 2008 percentage 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 86,4% 2,2 1,90 1,5 76,7% 1,15 66,7% 4,2 2,80 30,2 32,1% 9,70 31,3% 3,2 1,00 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% ratio (hh with Internet / hh with a PC) 0 Bangladesh Afghanistan Bhutan Maldives Nepal 0% % households w ith a PC % households w ith Internet access ratio (%) Define national programs for the distribution of low-cost computing Encourage community access to broadband ( Connect School, Connect Community) 25 Source: ITU
5. Very High Broadband Prices Price US$ 2009 Price % income 2009 2009/2008 Price broadband / fixed telephone 2009 Penetration fixed telephone / fixed broadband 2009 Bangladesh 50.4 (currently reduced to US$ 8-15) 116 % - 7 % 32 times higher 31 times higher Bhutan 10.0 6.3 % - 84 % 3 times higher 8,5 times higher Maldives 9.4 3 % 0 % 2 times higher 3 times higher Nepal 21.5 64 % - 6 % 7 times higher 11 times higher High High Australia 26.0 0.8 % -5 % Equal 1,5 times higher Korea Rep. 25.3 1.4 % 25 % 5 times higher Nearly equal Sweden 35.5 0.8 % 10 % Nearly equal 1,5 times higher United States 20.0 0.5 % 33 % 1,5 times higher 2 times higher Low Low Address the bottlenecks in access, backhaul and international connectivity 26 Source: ITU
6. Limited Use of Funding Support for Broadband Deployment Is there a national broadband plan? Universal service includes broadband? Are there other financing mechanisms for broadband? Are there social tariffs for broadband subscribers? Afghanistan Being developed No TDF Fund No Bangladesh Yes [1] No, but foreseen in the National Broadband Policy No No Bhutan Yes No No No Maldives No No No Yes, for educational purposes Nepal Currently a draft under consultation Yes, in rural areas USO imposed on the incumbent fixed line operator, and financed through US Fund and interconnection charges Tax exemption for telecom equipment imported for rural services No Define National broadband strategies Consider broadband for inclusion under universal service Incentives for investment in rural and remote areas 27 Source: ITU ABBMN Questionnaire (June 2010)
7. Regulatory Environment Year created Is it autonomous in its decisionmaking? Are public consultations mandatory before adopting regulations? Can the regulator impose sanctions? Are there clear disputeresolution mechanisms? Who has the ultimate authority to overturn a decision of the regulator? Nepal Telecommunications Authority Bhutan InfoComm & Media Authority Bangladesh Telecommunication Regulatory Commission Communications Authority of Maldives Telecommunication Regulatory Board (Afghanistan) 1997 Yes 2000 Yes (after 2006) Only in some issues requiring input Yes, before adopting rules Yes Yes The judiciary Yes Only alternative dispute resolution The Appellate Tribunal 2001 Yes Yes Yes Yes The judiciary 2003 Yes No Yes No The President 2003 Yes Just in certain cases Yes Yes The sector Ministry United States (FCC) 1934 Yes Yes Yes Yes The judiciary Sweden (NPTA) 1992 Yes Yes Yes Binding decisions The judiciary Korea Rep. (KCC) 1997 Yes NA Yes Courts/ litigation The judiciary United Kingdom (Ofcom) 2002 Yes Yes Yes Yes The judiciary Australia (ACMA) 2005 Yes Yes Yes Yes The judiciary, Administrative Appeals Tribunal 28 Source: ITU
How to Stimulate Broadband? International Telecommunication Union 29
ABBMN Countries are Making Progress Maldives Sri Lanka India Bhutan Pakistan Bangladesh Nepal 0 1 2 3 4 IDI 2002 IDI 2007 IDI 2008 But is it sufficient and fast enough? Source: ITU 30
Role of Government Stipulate clear vision and strategy in the national agenda for development (Digital Bangladesh 2021) Build Digital Highways: Support national backbone networks Create Critical Demand : e government applications Provide Tax Incentives for Broadband Encourage Deployment of Low Cost Computing Devices Build the skills to harness the full potential of broadband 31
Role of NRA Predictable regulatory framework Mandatory transparent consultation process Converged licensing framework Promoting competition Investment in infrastructure : Incentives based regulation Timely dispute resolution mechanism Spectrum allocation for wireless broadband Infrastructure sharing framework based on national environment 32
Role of Private Sector Investment in infrastructure Innovation and deployment of new technologies Develop different business models and consider the introduction of e health/telemedicine services Infrastructure Sharing Join PPP initiatives for a win win outcome 33
Role of ITU Encourage policies to promote investment in infrastructure and competition Publish best practice guidelines, research & analysis and case studies Assist in design & deploy ICT pilot network infrastructures Assist in development of Broadband Policies and Master Plans Resource mobilization and partnerships for Regional Initiatives Seminar/ Trainings on New Technologies and ICT applications Build human and institutional capacity in areas of policy, regulation, ICT skills Produce technical standards for new and emerging technologies Lead assignment of spectrum for mobile broadband services on global level 34
ITU Development Programs (2011 14) Programme 1 Programme 2 Information and communication infrastructure and technology development Cybersecurity, ICT Applications and IP based network related related issues Programme 3 Enabling Environment Programme 4 Capacity Building and digital inclusion Programme 5 Least developed countries, countries in special need, emergency telecommunications and climate change adaptation 35
Asia Pacific Regional Initiatives (2011 14) ASP RI 1 Unique ICT needs of least developed countries (LDCs), small island developing States (SIDS) and landlocked developing countries ASP RI 2 Emergency telecommunications ASP RI 3 Digital broadcasting ASP RI 4 Broadband access and uptake in urban and rural areas ASP RI 5 Telecommunications/ICT policy and regulation in the Asia Pacific region 36
Outcome of ABBMN Forum: Ministerial Declaration on Broadband Establish National Broadband Policies and enabling regulatory environment to stimulate investment of infrastructures including the establishment of Internet Exchange especially in those countries where such exchanges are still absent. Establish or strengthen National Advanced ICT training capabilities in each ABBMN country to educate citizens on the benefits of broadband technologies and applications to develop appropriate skills to harness the full potential of broadband. 37
Outcome of ABBMN Forum: Ministerial Declaration (II) Encourage service providers to expand broadband access using full potential of wireless broadband to deliver innovative solutions in rural and remote areas while encouraging establishment of Broadband Community Centers, capable of offering online applications including e Governance, e Learning, e Health, e Publications using local contents with engagement of local communities. Facilitate to resolve the high bandwidth costs of international connectivity among the neighboring countries to enable affordable access and use of broadband services especially for the landlocked countries. 38
Conclusions ABBMN countries have recently experienced unprecedented mobile growth & have the potential to repeat the same for broadband Broadband can be stimulated by: (a) Appropriate public policy initiatives (b) Enabling regulatory environment (c) Involvement of the private sector ITU and its partners would continue to assist through technical cooperation and resource mobilization The report Stimulating Universal Access to Broadband in ABBMN Countries provides recommendations on the way forward 39
ITU : http://www.itu.int ITU Asia Pacific : http://www.itu.int/itu D/asp/CMS/index.asp 40