CASE STUDY: SRI LANKA AID FOR TRADE EXPERT DIALOGUE BANGKOK, 18 th Nov. 2013
Outline 1. Preparation Stage 2. Implementation Stage 3. Preliminary Results 4. Verdict 2
1. Preparation stage Research Team Chandana Karunaratne Research Officer, IPS Ashani Abayasekara Research Officer, IPS Tharaka Hettiarachchi Project Intern, IPS 3
1. Preparation stage Performance Reviews Debt Statistics Foreign Aid Reviews OECD QWIDS Database Literature Review Logical Frameworks Environmental Monitoring Reports Budgets 4
1. Preparation stage Stakeholder Mapping Joint Apparel Association Forum Delegation of the European Union Asian Development Bank Sri Lanka Ports Authority Export Manufacturing Firms Department of Commerce Department of External Resources Export Manufacturing Firms Ceylon Chamber of Commerce Attendees of Workshops and Trainings Logistics Providers 5
2. Implementation stage Overview of AfT in Sri Lanka Figure 1: Aid-for-Trade Flows into Sri Lanka, 2006 2011 600,000 USD thousands, 2011 constant prices 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 Total AfT Flows Economic Infrastructure Building Productive Capacity Trade Policy and Regulations - 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Year Source: OECD-DAC, Aid activity database (CRS), 2012. 6
2. Implementation stage Overview of AfT in Sri Lanka Figure 2: Contribution of Top AfT Donors (2008-09 average) 3% 3% 2% 2% Japan 23% 67% World Bank Denmark EU Institutions France Spain Source: OECD/WTO, 2011, Aid for Trade at a Glance 2011: Showing Results, available: [http://browse.oecdbookshop.org/oecd/pdfs/free/4311141e.pdf]. 7
2. Implementation stage Project Selection: Average Scores Colombo Port Expansion Project (ADB) 86% Sri Lanka Trade Development Project (EU) 77% Sri Lanka Port Management and Maritime Safety Training (KOICA) 76% SME Regional Development Project (ADB) 71% Increased Competitiveness in the Global Marketplace (USAID) 63% Trade Negotiation Workshop in Agriculture (FAO) 40% Small and Micro Industries Promotion Project (JBIC) 34% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Source: Authors own calculations based on evaluation criteria given in Adhikari and Bajracharya (2013). 8
2. Implementation stage Project Selection: Sri Lanka Trade Development Project 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Category Objectives Time-frame Availability of Information Modality of Delivery Private Sector Willingness to Cooperate Avg. Score: 77% 9
2. Implementation stage Project Selection: Colombo Port Expansion Project 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Category Objectives Time-frame Availability Modality of of Delivery Information Private Sector Willingness to Cooperate Score: 86% 10
2. Implementation stage Data Gathering Method Qualitative Approach Face-to-face Interviews Phone Interviews Email Questionnaires 11
Five Pillars of Evaluation Relevance Efficiency Effectiveness Impact Sustainability 12
PROJECT 1: SRI LANKA TRADE DEVELOPMENT PROJECT 13
Sri Lanka Trade Development Project Strengthen Capacity for WTO Negotiations Increase Export Potential in Garments and Gems & Jewelry Sectors 14
Sri Lanka Trade Development Project Relevance Stimulating trade and investment flows Integrating into the world economy Strengthening institutional capacity 15
Sri Lanka Trade Development Project Efficiency Consultations with stakeholders Needs assessment analysis Monitoring visits 16
Sri Lanka Trade Development Project Effectiveness Capacity enhanced in DOC, CCC, and EDB Training of 50 national WTO experts 17
Sri Lanka Trade Development Project Figure 3: Sri Lanka s Exports, 2005-2012 12000 30 10000 25 8000 20 US$ Million 6000 4000 15 10 Percentage Exports to the EU Total Exports Exports as a % of GDP 2000 5 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 0 Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka, Annual Report, Various Issues 18
Sri Lanka Trade Development Project Figure 4: FDI Inflows to Sri Lanka, 2005-2012 US$ Million 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 Total FDI EU FDI 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 0 Source: Board of Investment of Sri Lanka, 2013 19
Sri Lanka Trade Development Project Impact Increased competence in WTO negotiations Significant knowledge and experience gained Minimal negative impact on social environment 20
Sri Lanka Trade Development Project Sustainability Lack of institutional memory Need to redevelop WIC 21
Sri Lanka Trade Development Project Verdict Regular monitoring Strengthened institutional capacity Problem of sustainability 22
PROJECT 2: COLOMBO PORT EXPANSION PROJECT 23
Colombo Port Expansion Project Relevance Primary transshipment hub port Increase competitiveness Strengthen containerhandling capacity 24
Colombo Port Expansion Project Efficiency Stringent monitoring and evaluation Project Implementation Unit 25
Colombo Port Expansion Project Impact Lower freight costs Increased containerhandling capacity Increased transshipment traffic 26
Colombo Port Expansion Project Sustainability Significant role for private sector Increased demand for port facilities 27
Colombo Port Expansion Project Figure 11: Projected Annual Income and Expenditure Streams for Sri Lanka Ports Authority 200,000 Income-Expenditure Stream ($ '000) 150,000 100,000 50,000-2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 (50,000) (100,000) (150,000) Year Source: ADB 2007. 28
Colombo Port Expansion Project Verdict Strict monitoring and evaluation framework Potential to be highly successful 29
THANK YOU 30