Seven Dimensions of Oregon s Employment Situation

Seven Dimensions of Oregon s Employment Situation Portland State University February 18, 2011

Seven Dimensions of Oregon s Employment Situation D1: LAUS Unemployment D2: CES - Industry D3: QCEW - Covered D4: OES - Occupations D5: LED - Demographics D6: HWOL - Demand for Employment D7: Special Reports and Surveys

Dimension 1: Local Area Unemployment Statistics Source: 12.1% 1982 11.6% and June and inoregon December May January 2009 Employment 1983 (Bars Department and National Bureau of Economic Research United Oregon 2009 2004 1999 1994 1989 1984 1979 States Unemployment Rate (Seasonally Adjusted) 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 Represent NBER Recessions) Oregon Unemployment Rate Typically Higher Than U.S.

Definition of unemployed To be counted as unemployed (in the regularly used definition), an individual must be age 16 or older, not on active duty in the military, not in an institution, and: Not employed Available for work Making specific efforts to find employment within the last four weeks Note: whether or not an individual has applied for, is receiving, or has ever received unemployment insurance benefits is not a factor in the statistical definition of the unemployed.

Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) Unemployment Rate United States: 9.0% in January 2011 Oregon: 10.6% in December 2010 Portland MSA 10.2% in December 2010 Multnomah County 9.8% in December 2010

Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) Oregon: Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rates by Area December 2010 (Preliminary Estimates) Unemployment Rate Less Than 10% 10% - 14% Higher Than 14%

Dimension 2: Current Employment Statistics Seasonally Adjusted Employment in Oregon Total Nonfarm Payroll: 1990-2010 1,800,000 Employment 1,600,000 Employment down 136,700 ( -7.9%) from pre-recession peak in February 2008. 1,400,000 Possible trough: March 2010? Employment now up 12,300 from March 2010. 1,200,000 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Current Employment Statistics (CES) Total Nonfarm Jobs United States: Oregon: 130,265,000 in January 2011 1,602,400 in December 2010 Portland MSA 960,600 in December 2010 Multnomah County 425,300 in December 2010

Current Employment Statistics (CES) Oregon: Annual Job Change, December 2009 to December 2010 Percentage Change More Than -0.2% -0.2% to 0% Positive

Current Employment Statistics (CES) Recession Employment 2010 January of loss Dec. started 2007Jan-10 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 - June March 2009 2008 Strongest growth since monthly 2005! -10,000-15,000-20,000 10,000-5,000 5,000 0 Oregon'sseasonally Monthly Job adjusted Growth/Decline

Current Employment Statistics (CES) Recession of Dec. 2007 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 - June 2009-100,000-120,000-140,000-20,000-40,000-60,000-80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Oregon's Year-Over-Year seasonally adjusted Job Growth/Decline

Current Employment Statistics (CES) 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 Employment 1,500,000 1,400,000 1,300,000 1,200,000 1,100,000 1,000,000 Private2010 March sector recessionary employment low now of 1,290,300. 15,000 above the - 2010 Seasonally Total Private Adjusted Sector: Employment 1990 in Oregon

Current Employment Statistics (CES) 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 Employment 100,000 110,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 Seasonally Construction: Adjusted Employment 1990-2010in Oregon

Current Employment Statistics (CES) 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 Employment 240,000 220,000 200,000 180,000 160,000 Seasonally Manufacturing: Adjusted Employment 1990-2010 in Oregon

Current Employment Statistics (CES) 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 Employment 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 Seasonally Financial Adjusted Activities: Employment 1990-2010 in Oregon

Current Employment Statistics (CES) 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 Employment 320,000 300,000 280,000 260,000 240,000 220,000 Seasonally Government: Adjusted Employment 1990-2010in Oregon

Current Employment Statistics (CES) 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 Employment 210,000 200,000 190,000 180,000 170,000 Seasonally Retail Adjusted Trade: Employment 1997-2010in Oregon

Current Employment Statistics (CES) 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 Employment 225,000 200,000 175,000 150,000 125,000 100,000 Professional Seasonally and Adjusted Business Employment Services: in1990 Oregon - 2010

Current Employment Statistics (CES) 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 Employment 240,000 1990 220,000 200,000 180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000 Educational Seasonally Adjusted and Health Employment Services: in Oregon - 2010

Portland s Business Cycle Employment, Dec. 2010, 3-month moving avg Cheyenne Annualized 3-mo. % change Spokane Riverside Billings -4.0 5 Expanding 5.0 Improving -3.0 Reno Salem Oakland -2.0 6 Phoenix Boise (-6.0,-2.6) Anchorage -1.0 San Francisco Tucson 1.0 0.0 U.S. -3.0 4 Contracting 2.0 2 San Diego -5.0 3 Seattle San Jose 7 Sacramento (-6.2,-7.2) 1 Los Angeles Denver 1.0 PDX -1.0 Tacoma Albuquerque Eugene Las Vegas Honolulu Salt Lake 3.0 1: 2: 3: 4: 5: 6: 7: 3.0 Dec 2007 June 2008 Dec 2008 June 2009 Dec 2009 June 2010 Dec 2010-7.0 % change year ago Slipping NOTE: Size reflects employment base Source: Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

Dimension 3: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, 2009 United States Oregon Portland MSA Multnomah County Portland (city limits) Establishments Employment 9,003,197 128,607,842 126,899 1,608,669 71,512 964,588 27,318 423,770 25,666 375,159 Payroll $5,859,232,422,000 $65,541,013,025 $43,931,272,000 $19,591,929,490 $17,884,127,082 Source: Oregon Employment Department and Bureau of Labor Statistics Average Pay $45,559 $40,742 $45,544 $46,232 $47,671

Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) Other Names for QCEW Data Covered Employment and Wages ES-202

Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) Source: Consumer price indexprior data from of Index Labor Change change prior Inflationpay adjusted average from year in in Portland-Salem consumer yearu.s. price indexstatistics from -1% 2010 4 3 2 1 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 Change in Pay andbureau Price 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% ChangeOver-the-Year in Oregon's Average Percentage Pay Follows ChangesInflation

Dimension 4: Occupational Employment Statistics Low Medium High Moderate Short Long (<$30,000) (>$50,000) Related Postsecondary ($30,000 term term Advanced term Bachelor's Associate work on-the-job on-the-job on - $49,999) -the-job Degree experience training training training training Employment 100,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 0 Oregon Employment by Minimum Education, 2008

Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) Low Medium High (<$30,000) (>$50,000) ($30,000 -Business, $49,999) Management, Installation, Transportation Office Farming, Construction Professional and Sales Maintenance, Health Fishing, Administrative Production Service and and and and Care Related Material and Extraction Related and Forestry and Support Financial Moving Repair Employment 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 Oregon Employment by Occupational Category, 2008

Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) Oregon Occupational Information All Occuaptions Economists Postsecondary Teachers Employment Median Hourly Mean Hourly Mean Annual 1,624,490 $16.16 $45.45 $42,540 373 $38.97 $39.83 $82,850 17,684 N/A N/A $77,236

Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) $45 $40 $35 $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 $0 Personal Life, Computer and Business mathematical Management Architecture fishing, and engineering preparation practitioner Healthcare operations Sales and Farming, financial forestry support science related Legal Food technical physical, and serving service social and and care and and Oregon U.S. Median Median Hourly Hourly Wage Wage Oregon Wages Occupation Fall Behind Groups Nation for High-Paying

Dimension 5: Local Employment Dynamics Source: Oregon Employment Department and U.S. Census Bureau, Quarterly Workforce Indicators 201014-24 1991 65-99 55-64 45-54 35-44 25-34 The Percent of Workforce Age Group 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Older Workers 0% Oregon Workforce Has Shifted Towards

Local Employment Dynamics (LED) U.S. Census / State partnership Quarterly Workforce Indicators (QWI) OnTheMap

Ontario, Oregon-Idaho Micropolitan Statistical Area... Malheur County, Oregon + Payette County, Idaho = an integrated labor market Payette County: -Idaho s smallest county: 410 square miles -Population: 22,966 (2008); 56.0 people/square mile LABOR SHED where Ontario Micropolitan Statistical Area workers live (18,969 primary jobs) -Malheur County: 7,788 (41.1% of area workers) -Payette County: 5,732 (30.2%) -Neighboring Idaho Counties (~ 60-mile drive) -Canyon: 1,342 -Washington: 905 -Ada: 716 -Gem: 308 -Other locations, including other Idaho counties : 2,178 3,600+ workers leave Ontario Area for employment Malheur County: -Oregon s second largest county: 9,926 square miles -Population: 31,675 (2008); 3.2 people/square mile 3,200+ workers travel into the Ontario Area for employment The Top 5 -- Breakdown of 18,969 Primary Jobs by Industry Type 1.Retail trade: 3,233 (17.0%) 2.Health Care and Social Assistance: 2,228 (11.7%) 3.Manufacturing: 2,189 (11.5%) 4.Public Administration: 2,142 (11.3%) 5.Educational Services: 1,897 (10.0%) Jobs by Worker Age 1.Age 30 & younger: 24.7% 2.Age 31-54: 55.4% 3.Age 55 & older: 19.9% Jobs by Earnings Paid 1.$1,250 per month or less: 5,222 (27.5%) 2.$1,251 to $3,333 per month: 9.053 (47.7%) 3.More than $3,333 per month: 4,694 (24.7%) Annette.I.Shelton-Tiderman@state.or.us Workforce Analyst, Oregon Employment Department. 541-519-0315

Dimension 6: Help Wanted OnLine The Conference Board s Help Wanted OnLine series www.conference-board.org

Help Wanted OnLine (HWOL) TM (HWOL) Source: The-Conference Wanted OnLine Oregon Help Total New Wanted Ads AdsBoard Help Online January Ads (in2008 thousands) - January10.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 0.0 2011 (Seasonally Adjusted) The Conference Board's Help-Wanted Online Data Series

Help Wanted OnLine (HWOL) TM (HWOL) Source: The Conference Board Wanted OnLine US Index OR Index HelpHelp Wanted December Online Ads 2007 Index - January100 120 80 60 40 20 0 2010 The Conference Total Ads Board's Index Help-Wanted (December 2007 Online = 100) Data Series

Help Wanted OnLine (HWOL) TM (HWOL) Source: The-Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine Portland Total Ads New Ads Help Wanted Online January Ads 2008 (thousands) - January10.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 2011 5.0 0.0 The Conference(Not Board's Seasonally Help-Wanted Adjusted) Online Data Series

Dimension 7: Special Reports and Surveys Examples Quarterly Wage Reports PCPI Report Vacancy Survey Future Hiring Survey

Special Surveys: Quarterly Wage Reports Oregon Workers* in the Second Quarter of 2010 New Workers Industry Natural Resources and Mining Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, & Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services State & Local Government Non-classifiable Total - All Industries Count of Workers % of Total 4,118 12.3% 1,452 4.3% 1,821 5.4% 880 2.6% 3,955 11.8% 719 2.1% 583 1.7% 740 2.2% 5,130 15.3% 3,099 9.2% 7,369 22.0% 1,408 4.2% 2,094 6.2% 136 0.4% 33,505 100.0% All Workers Median Wage $8.67 $16.15 $11.00 $12.37 $8.83 $13.63 $14.93 $11.91 $10.22 $10.04 $8.48 $10.00 $11.95 $14.39 Median Wage $10.08 $22.55 $20.00 $20.50 $11.94 $19.69 $25.04 $18.75 $15.38 $17.69 $9.79 $14.05 $22.52 $17.00 $9.50 $16.55 * Count of records. Individuals holding multiple jobs will be counted more than once. Source : Unemployment insurance wage records

Special Analysis of Oregon s Per Capita Personal Income November 2010

Special Reports: Per Capita Personal Income Defining Per Capita Personal Income PCPI = $36,125 = Earnings by Place of Residence + Dividends, Interest, and Rent + Transfer Receipts Population $83.1 Billion Earnings + $28.2 Billion Dividends, Interest, and Rent + $26.9 Billion Transfers 3,825,657 Oregon Residents

Special Reports: Per Capita Personal Income Oregon s PCPI is lagging relative to the nation. United Oregon 2009States 1999 1989 1979 1969 1959 1949 1939 1929 Oregon 2009 Dollars $45,000 $40,000 $35,000 $30,000 $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $0 Early 1980s PCPI Below U.S. Since $39,626 $36,125 Oregon s PCPI was 91% of the national level in 2009.

Oregon lost ground to the U.S. in the early 1980s and never fully recovered. War-related Early Largest crisis financial Asian recession 2008=90.5% 1980s gap:shipbuilding 2009 1999 1989 1979 1969 1959 1949 1939 1929 Oregon PCPI as Percent of U.S. 130% 120% 110% 90% 80% 70% 60% Oregon PCPI Gap Increasing100% Since Mid-1990s Oregon s PCPI reached an historic low relative to the U.S. in 2008. Ranked 32nd among states in 2009.

Oregon average annual earnings are lower in most industries and account for about 3.5 percentage points of the overall PCPI gap. Possible reasons for Oregon s lower earnings: Higher unemployment holds down wages Lower employment-to-population ratio Shorter average workweek Higher share of part-time workers Oregon 11.1% 58% U.S. 9.3% 59% 33.2 hours 33.9 hours 34% 29% One out of three are involuntary part-time workers 3rd highest share of usual part-time workers

Oregon s proprietors are earning less than their counterparts nationwide. Average earnings were 72 percent of the national average. Oregon has a higher share of employment in proprietors. (23% in OR vs. 21% in U.S.) Accounts for about 2.5 percentage points of the PCPI gap. Includes sole proprietorships, partnerships, and tax-exempt cooperatives. Includes farm proprietors income. Oregon farm proprietors averaged losses of $1,330 in 2009 Nationally, farm proprietors earnings averaged $20,774.

A significant amount of earnings leave Oregon each year Commuters into Oregon take more earnings out of Oregon than commuters out of Oregon bring back home. The net outflow was $2.4 billion in 2009 6 th largest in U.S. Net outflow was 2.4 percent of all work earnings in 2009. Accounts for about 1.5 points of the PCPI gap.

Other possible drivers of PCPI are sometimes pointed to, but we haven t been able to measure their effects in Oregon. Quality of life Investment in education and infrastructure Tax structure

Oregon is a cheaper place to live. Adjusting for Oregon s cost of living increases the state s PCPI by $1,100 (roughly one-third the gap with the nation). Oregon prices are 5 percent lower than the national average. Oregon ranks as the 20th most costly state. Many of the most expensive state are also high PCPI states: Most Expensive Hawaii New York New Jersey California Connecticut Least Expensive West Virginia North Dakota Arkansas Mississippi Alabama

High PCPI states clustered around NY and D.C. Most High PCPI States on East Coast 2009 State PCPI $30,000 to $34,999 $35,000 to $39,999 $40,000 to $44,999 $45,000 to $68,999

Special Surveys: Vacancy Survey

Special Surveys: Vacancy Survey 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 29,974 18,242 47,888 Spring May Fall 2010 2008 2009 NumberOregon of Vacancies Job Below Vacancies Vacancies Increasing, But Still Pre-Recession Levels,

Special Surveys: Vacancy Survey Health Care Industry Leads with Most Vacancies Oregon Vacancies by Industry, Fall 2010 Industry All Industries Health Care and Social Assistance Retail Trade Educational Services Accommodation and Food Services Professional and Technical Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Administrative and Waste Services Construction Finance and Insurance Other Services Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing Management of Companies Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Newly Created Vacancies Positions 29,974 14% 5,666 8% 5,103 8% 2,604 7% 2,600 16% 1,956 24% 1,577 20% 1,388 4% 1,262 20% 1,219 70% 1,166 7% 1,116 18% 1,003 11% 906 6% 885 12% 833 17% 363 6% 327 20% Requiring Education Requiring Beyond License or High School Certificate 38% 29% 48% 41% 34% 11% 59% 47% 5% 53% 71% 22% 35% 9% 35% 10% 21% 17% 16% 68% 41% 13% 48% 34% 4% 6% 49% 20% 25% 55% 58% 3% 34% 40% 27% 13%

Special Surveys: Vacancy Survey 1,848 Other Vocational Bachelor's Graduate No Some High Associate Requirement Requirement 9,108 6,377 1,052 4,360 1,632 2,518 School College Degree Degree or One In Four Oregon, FallHigher 2010 Education Degree Vacacnies Require

Special Surveys: Vacancy Survey $10.00 $15.00 $20.00 $25.00 $8.40 $30 and tolow-wage $14.99 $19.99 $24.99 $29.99 $9.99 up Fall 2010 Jobs Oregon, Were A Larger Share of Vacancies

The Hiring Plans of Oregon Employers: Results From the First Future Hiring Survey Oregon Employment Department Workforce and Economic Research Division December 2010

More employers planning decreases than increases. Source: Oregon Employment Department, Future Hiring Survey Increase No Decrease Don't 12% 15% 62% change 11% Know Expected Change in Number of Employees Over Next Six Mon ths

Employers expectations vary by industry. No Increase Don't *Decrease Source: Transportation, Includes Professional change Administrative Know Natural Oregon Leisure Management Educational Financial 13% 20% 46% 53% 56% 68% 67% 55% 59% 70% 72% 74% 61% 63% 62% 34% 23% 16% 12% 18% 15% 17% 10% 11% 14% 9% 7% 8% 6% Wholesale Health Resources Other Manufacturing All Construction Retail and Information Warehousing, Employment and Industries and Technical Services Services Activities Trade Hospitality Waste Services Trade ofand Companies Department, Mining Services Services* and Utilities andfuture Enterprises Hiring Survey All Industries Professional Sorted by and Net Technical Change Services Response More (Increase Likely to - Decrease) Increase Staff

At least one-third planning some type of hiring, usually for turnover or seasonal work. Most Hiring Will Be for Turnover or for Seasonal Work (Sorted by Share of Employers Planning Any Type of Hiring) All Industries Leisure and Hospitality Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Information Health Services Manufacturing Administrative and Waste Services Professional and Technical Services* Natural Resources and Mining Retail Trade Educational Services Financial Activities Other Services Construction Wholesale Trade Turnover Seasonal Expansion 19% 10% 9% 32% 16% 5% 25% 11% 11% 24% 8% 16% 31% 2% 11% 19% 7% 11% 19% 15% 9% 16% 10% 13% 9% 27% 3% 24% 12% 5% 19% 8% 10% 19% 3% 9% 16% 3% 8% 6% 8% 7% 12% 6% 8% * Includes Management of Companies and Enterprises Source: Oregon Employment Department, Future Hiring Survey Restoration 4% 2% 4% 3% 2% 10% 3% 4% 3% 1% 2% 2% 4% 9% 3%

Employers still concerned about economy (and taxes). Reasons That May Prevent Employers From Hiring Over Next Six Months Related to Economy Recession Tight Credit Market Slow Housing Market 67% 60% 4% 3% Other Reasons Seasonal Work Uncertainty About Future Lack of Qualified Applicants Hire Contractors 25% 15% 7% 5% 1% Related to Government Taxes Regulations Health Care Minimum Wage State Budget Cuts Proposition 66 & 67 Source: Oregon Employment Department, Future Hiring Survey 18% 12% 3% 3% 2% 1% 1%

Useful Links Unemployment - www.qualityinfo.org/olmisj/labforce Employment - www.qualityinfo.org/olmisj/ces Covered Employment - www.qualityinfo.org/olmisj/cep Occupational Info - www.qualityinfo.org/olmisj/oic Employment Indicators by Age and Sex - www.qualityinfo.org/olmisj/qwi or from the U.S. Census website - http://lehd.did.census.gov/led/datatools/qwiapp.html Employment Indicators by Residence - http://lehdmap.did.census.gov/ Online Ads - www.qualityinfo.org/olmisj/olmiszine?zineid=00000008 (by occupation) or HWOL from The Conference Board - www.conference-board.org Quarterly Wage Reports - www.qualityinfo.org/olmisj/pubreader?itemid=00003351 Per Capita Personal Income - www.qualityinfo.org/pubs/pcpi/pcpi.pdf Vacancy Survey - www.qualityinfo.org/olmisj/pubreader?itemid=00005575 Future Hiring Survey - www.qualityinfo.org/pubs/future/future_hiring.pdf

Pacific Northwest Regional Economic Conference (PNREC) 2011 THEME: Green and Global in the Garden City CONFERENCE DATES: May 12 and 13, 2011 CONFERENCE SITE: Delta Ocean Pointe Hotel Victoria, British Columbia CALL FOR PAPERS: Open www.pnrec.org

Nick Beleiciks State Employment Economist Workforce and Economic Research Oregon Employment Department (503) 947-1267 Nick Beleiciks@state.or.us For more information: www.qualityinfo.org OregonEmployment.Blogspot.com Twitter: @OrEmployment