Military Capacity and the Risk of War China, India, Pakistan and Iran Edited by Eric Arnett sipri OXFORD UNIVERSITY PRESS 1997
Contents Preface Acronyms xi xii 1. Beyond threat perception: assessing military capacity and reducing 1 the risk of war in southern Asia Eric Arnett I. n. III. IV. V. Table 1.1. Table 1.2. Table 1.3. Introduction 1 Scenarios of conflict 4 Absorption of technology and military capacity 8 Building confidence and controlling arms 16 Conclusions 23 Factors limiting military capacity and their implications 12 for conditioning access to technology Iranian arms imports since 1988 18 Indian and Pakistani combat aircraft, 1995 22 2. Threat perception and military planning in China: domestic 25 instability and the importance of prestige Di Hua I. Introduction 25 II. China's threat perception: from foreign enemies to domestic 26 civil unrest III. Explaining China's nuclear modernization 28 IV. Modernization of conventional forces to ensure reunification 31 V. Conclusions 35 Appendix 2A. Russian weapons and military technologies of interest 37 to the PLA Di Hua 3. Military technology and doctrine in Chinese military planning: 39 compensating for obsolescence Paul H. B. Godwin I. Introduction 39 II. Military modernization and Deng's reforms 40 III. Current modernization projects 43 IV. Conclusions 59
vi MILITARY CAPACITY AND THE RISK OF WAR 4. Chinese military capacity: industrial and operational weaknesses 61 Norman Friedman I. Introduction 61 II. China's security environment 61 III. Developing military equipment 64 IV. Obstacles to developing military capacity 67 V. Implications of scenarios of conflict 73 VI. Conclusions 74 5. Arms procurement in China: poorly understood processes and 76 unclear results Wendy Frieman I. Introduction 76 II. The procurement process 77 III. Economic reform and arms procurement 79 IV. The outcomes of Chinese procurement policy 80 V. Conclusions 83 Table 5.1. Modernization of selected Chinese weapon systems, 81 1981-95 6. Military technology and absorptive capacity in China and India: 84 implications for modernization Erik Baark I. Introduction 84 II. Technological capabilities 88 III. Chinese and Indian innovation policies: measures to 94 improve performance IV. Strengthening linkages between military and civil science 100 V. VI. Table 6.1. Table 6.2. Table 6.3. Table 6.4. Table 6.5. Figuni 6.1. and technology The barriers to accumulation of technological capabilities 106 Concluding remarks 109 Illustrative matrix of technological capabilities 90 Three flows of technology transfer 91 Transformation of science and technology policy concepts 95 in China Key Chinese policy measures and examples of concrete 96 policy initiatives India's technology policy liberalization: key features 98 Accumulation of technological capabilities 93
CONTENTS 7. Arms procurement in India: military self-reliance versus 110 technological self-sufficiency Raju G. C. Thomas I. Introduction 110 II. Self-sufficiency in Indian ideology and science policy 110 III. Science policy and military programmes 116 IV. Arms procurement programmes 119 V. Prospects for self-sufficiency in military technology 128 8. Threat perception and military planning in Pakistan: the impact 130 of technology, doctrine and arms control Ross Masood Husain I. Introduction 130 II. Emerging technologies and Pakistan's threat perception 131 III. Pakistan's military doctrine and regional stability 133 IV. Confidence-building measures 136 V. Arms control and force reductions 143 VI. Conclusions 147 9. Arms procurement in Pakistan: balancing the needs for quality, 148 self-reliance and diversity of supply Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema I. Introduction 148 II. Pakistan's sense of insecurity 148 III. Arms procurement 154 IV. Conclusions 160 10. Arms production in Iran and Pakistan: the limits of self-reliance 161 Yezid Sayigh I. Introduction: strategic insecurity 161 II. Pakistan: caught in the bottleneck 163 III. Iran: from grand ambition to the imperatives of defence 178 IV. Conclusions 193 11. Threat perception and military planning in Iran: credible 195 scenarios of conflict and opportunities for confidence building Saideh Lotfian I. Introduction 195 II. Iranian international relations in a chaotic region 196 III. Iranian technology acquisition 203 IV. The perception of Iranian technology 207 V. Alleviating the threats perceived by Iran and its 210 neighbours VI. Conclusions 215 Table 11.1. Indicators of military power for selected states in 210 South-West Asia, 1994 vii
viii MILITARY CAPACITY AND THE RISK OF WAR 12. Iranian science and technology: implications of ideology and 216 the experience of war for military research and development Ahmed Hashim I. Introduction 216 II. Changing perceptions of technology and national defence 216 III. Assessing Iranian S&T capacity 219 IV. Conclusions 222 13. Arms procurement in Iran: ad hoc decision making and 223 ambivalent decision makers Shahram Chubin I. Introduction 223 II. Iran, China and India 224 III. Iran's threat perceptions 225 IV. Iranian procurement policy 228 V. Scenarios of armed conflict: how Iran's arms might be used 235 VI. Technology and intent 240 VII. Conclusions 242 14. Military research and development in southern Asia: limited 243 capabilities despite impressive resources Eric Arnett I. Introduction: the elusive goal of self-sufficiency 243 II. China: self-sufficiency deferred 244 III. India: rhetorical self-sufficiency and feigned self-reliance 253 IV. Iran: imposed self-reliance 257 V. Pakistan: new imperatives for self-sufficiency 259 VI. Conventional weapons 260 VII. Nuclear, biological and chemical weapons 273 VIII. Conclusions 275 Table 14.1. Estimated value of military output from Chinese military 246 production ministries, 1983-92 Table 14.2. Total (military and civilian) workforce of China's 248 military production industry in the mid-1980s and 1990s Table 14.3. Estimated sizes of the Chinese and Indian military 252 industrial and technology bases compared Table 14.4. Estimated value of military output from Indian 254 military production concerns, 1983-92 Table 14.5. Indian expenditure on military R&D 255 Table 14.6. Combat aircraft programmes in southern Asia 262 Table 14.7. Warship programmes in southern Asia 264 Table 14.8. Tank programmes in southern Asia 267 Table 14.9. Recent ballistic missile programmes in southern Asia 271 Table 14.10. Nuclear weapon programmes in southern Asia 274
CONTENTS 15. Arms exports to southern Asia: policies of technology transfer 277 and denial in the supplier countries Ian Anthony I. Introduction 277 II. The Wassenaar Arrangement 278 III. Russian views on arms and technology transfer 286 IV. Implications for arms acquisitions by China, India and 297 Iran 16. Maritime forces and stability in southern Asia 299 Eric Grove I. Introduction 299 II. Force structures 301 III. Implications for stability 311 IV. Conclusions 315 17. Technology, civil-military relations and warfare in southern 317 Asia Stephen Biddle and Robert Zirkle I. Introduction 317 II. The Iraqi air defence system 321 III. The North Vietnamese air defence system 336 IV. Conclusions and implications 344 About the authors 346 Index 351 ix