GAO FUTURE YEARS DEFENSE PROGRAM. Funding Increase and Planned Savings in Fiscal Year 2000 Program Are at Risk

GAO United States General Accounting Office Report to the Chairman, Committee on the Budget, House of Representatives November 1999 FUTURE YEARS DEFENSE PROGRAM Funding Increase and Planned Savings in Fiscal Year 2000 Program Are at Risk GAO/NSIAD-00-11

Contents Letter 3 Appendixes Appendix I: Department of Defense s 1999 and 2000 Future Years Defense Programs by Account 40 Appendix II: Comments From the Department of Defense 55 Tables Table 1: DOD s 1999 and 2000 FYDPs, by Primary Appropriation Category (total obligational authority in billions of fiscal year 2000 dollars) 9 Table 2: Sources of DOD s 2000 FYDP Savings 12 Table 3: Military Personnel Appropriation Accounts, 1999 and 2000 FYDPs (total obligational authority in millions of fiscal year 2000 dollars) 41 Table 4: Operation and Maintenance Appropriation Accounts, 1999 and 2000 FYDPs (total obligational authority in millions of fiscal year 2000 dollars) 43 Table 5: Procurement Appropriation Category by Component, 1999 and 2000 FYDPs (total obligational authority in millions of fiscal year 2000 dollars) 45 Table 6: Army Procurement Appropriation Accounts, 1999 and 2000 FYDPs (total obligational authority in millions of fiscal year 2000 dollars) 46 Table 7: Navy/Marine Corps Procurement Appropriation Accounts, 1999 and 2000 FYDPs (total obligational authority in millions of fiscal year 2000 dollars) 47 Table 8: Air Force Procurement Appropriations Accounts, 1999 and 2000 FYDPs (total obligational authority in millions of fiscal year 2000 dollars) 48 Table 9: Defensewide Procurement Appropriation Accounts, 1999 and 2000 FYDPs (total obligational authority in millions of fiscal year 2000 dollars) 49 Table 10: Research, Development, Test, and Evaluation Appropriation Accounts, 1999 and 2000 FYDPs (total obligational authority in millions of fiscal year 2000 dollars) 50 Table 11: Military Construction Appropriation Accounts, 1999 and 2000 FYDPs (total obligational authority in millions of fiscal year 2000 dollars) 51 Table 12: Family Housing Appropriation Accounts, 1999 and 2000 FYDPs (total obligational authority in millions of fiscal year 2000 dollars) 53 Page 1

Contents Table 13: Revolving and Management Funds, 1999 and 2000 FYDPs (total obligational authority in millions of fiscal year 2000 dollars) 54 Table 14: Defensewide Contingencies, 1999 and 2000 FYDPs (total obligational authority in millions of fiscal year 2000 dollars) 54 Figures Figure 1: Annual Military Personnel Funding Levels in 1999 and 2000 FYDPs (in billions of fiscal year 2000 dollars) 15 Figure 2: Annual Operation and Maintenance Funding Levels in 1999 and 2000 FYDP (in billions of fiscal year 2000 dollars) 18 Figure 3: Annual Defense Health Program Funding Levels in 1999 and 2000 FYDPs (in billions of fiscal year 2000 dollars) 20 Figure 4: Annual Procurement Funding Levels in the 1999 and 2000 FYDPs (in billions of fiscal year 2000 dollars) 24 Figure 5: Annual Family Housing Funding Levels in the 1999 and 2000 FYDPs (in billions of fiscal year 2000 dollars) 27 Figure 6: Mission and Direct Infrastructure Programs in 1999 and 2000 FYDPs 31 Figure 7: Military Personnel Levels in the 1999 and 2000 FYDPs (military personnel in thousands) 35 Figure 8: Civilian Personnel Levels in the 1999 and 2000 FYDPs (civilian personnel in thousands) 36 Abbreviations DOD Department of Defense FYDP Future Years Defense Program O&M operation and maintenance RDT&E research, development, test, and evaluation REDUX Military Retirement Reform Act of 1986 Page 2

United States General Accounting Office Washington, D.C. 20548 National Security and International Affairs Division B-283583 Leter November 22, 1999 The Honorable John R. Kasich Chairman, Committee on the Budget House of Representatives Dear Mr. Chairman: The Department of Defense s (DOD) Future Years Defense Program (FYDP) is the official document that summarizes the force levels and funding associated with specific programs that the Secretary of Defense would like to see approved by Congress. The FYDP presents estimated appropriation needs for the budget year for which funds are being requested from Congress and at least the 4 years following it. The fiscal year 2000 FYDP requested an additional $50.8 billion to the previously requested $1,053 billion total funding for fiscal years 2000-2003. 1 As requested, this report identifies the major changes and adjustments in the 2000 FYDP as compared to the 1999 FYDP and discusses the risks that the 2000 FYDP faces that may prevent it from being implemented as planned. The FYDP reflects decisions made in the DOD Planning, Programming, and Budgeting System, which is intended to produce the best possible mixture of forces, equipment, and support to accomplish DOD s mission. In reporting the results of the 1997 Quadrennial Defense Review, a congressionally mandated review of defense strategy and force requirements, DOD noted that it had not always been able to implement past FYDPs as planned because DOD underestimated some costs of its day-to-day operations and often did not fully achieve savings projected for efficiency enhancing initiatives. In addition, DOD or Congress can modify policies or begin new programs and operations that can require changes to the FYDP. The 2000 FYDP was DOD s second FYDP since the Quadrennial Defense Review in which DOD attempted to achieve a better balance in DOD s financial plans to meet its military forces current requirements and address long-term modernization needs. The Review examined the likely and emerging security threats and opportunities facing the United States and developed recommendations for the post-cold War era. 1 Unless otherwise stated, the years and dollars shown in this report are on a fiscal year basis and in constant fiscal year 2000 dollars. Page 3

The 1999 FYDP supported the President s 1999 budget and included budget estimates for 1999-2003. The 2000 FYDP supported the President s 2000 budget and included budget estimates for 2000-2005. This report concentrates on the period common to both FYDPs, 2000-2003. Our report reflects only that portion of the first 1999 supplemental appropriation that had been declared emergency and released by the Office of Management and Budget prior to the 2000 budget submission in February 1999, and does not reflect the additional 1999 and 2000 resources provided to DOD in the second 1999 emergency supplemental appropriation because it was not reflected in the President s budget and FYDP. 2 The report also discusses recent actions taken by Congress on DOD s budget for 2000 during its consideration and enactment of the Fiscal Year 2000 National Defense Authorization and Appropriations Acts. 2 The first 1999 emergency supplemental appropriation was provided in the Omnibus Consolidated and Emergency Supplemental Appropriations Act, 1999 (P.L. 105-277, Oct. 21, 1998), and the second 1999 emergency supplemental appropriation was provided in the 1999 Emergency Supplemental Appropriations Act (P.L. 106-31, May 21, 1999). The second emergency supplemental provided DOD with $10.7 billion for such items as overseas contingency operations, spare parts, depot maintenance, and military pay and retirement. Page 4

Results in Brief DOD planned to increase the funding of its three priority areas in the 2000 FYDP from an expected overall increase in its budget, as compared to past FYDPs where it planned to finance increases to its priority areas from other program reductions and savings. More specifically, total funding in the 2000 FYDP was $50.8 billion (4.8 percent) higher than in the 1999 FYDP over the 2000-2003 period. Of the $50.8 billion, DOD requested congressional approval for $45.4 billion in additional budget authority and $1.65 billion in rescissions of previously appropriated funds. 3 The remainder was to come from unobligated funds from prior years, which remain available for future obligations. Over half of the funding increase in the 2000 FYDP was for operation and maintenance accounts, 23 percent for military personnel accounts, and 16 percent for procurement accounts, which reflects DOD s three priority areas: readiness, quality of life, and modernization. In addition to the $50.8 billion, DOD expected to apply $15.5 billion in savings achieved from existing programs in the 1999 FYDP to the priorities in the 2000 FYDP. Most of the savings over $11 billion were expected to occur because of lower inflation rates than projected in the 1999 FYDP. 4 There are risks that DOD may not be able to implement its 2000 FYDP as planned because it may not receive all the funds it expects. Of DOD s total budget for the common years (2000-2003), at least $50 billion is at risk. The FYDP, which supported the President s budget, projected that the $45.4 billion increase in additional funding for the 2000 FYDP was to come from a share of the overall anticipated government budget surplus, which is uncertain. The surplus is contingent upon several factors, including continued economic growth, legislative agreements that address the financial soundness of the Social Security program, and adherence to statutory budget caps that limit spending for certain programs. Importantly, these budget caps apply to all discretionary spending, and the defense budget is included within the overall discretionary spending limit. Also, both Congress and the administration must agree to allocate some of the 3 DOD has requested congressional approval to use $1.65 billion for other purposes. 4 Each year, the Office of Management and Budget provides DOD with guidance to use in preparing DOD s budget request and FYDP. The guidance includes the executive branch s assumptions for inflation. DOD uses these assumptions to reestimate the cost of its programs. As a result of lower projected inflation rates over the last few years, DOD has projected inflation savings and has been authorized to retain most of these projected savings. This year, the President directed DOD to retain the projected savings from the 1999 FYDP to the 2000 FYDP and allocate them to the Department s most pressing needs. Page 5

anticipated surplus to DOD. In addition, DOD planned on congressional approval of a $1.65 billion rescission of previously appropriated funds; however, as of the beginning of November, Congress had not fully supported the requested rescission. Some of the expected $15.5 billion in savings and adjustments in the 2000 FYDP may not occur as planned. DOD s expected savings of $2.82 billion from lower fuel prices may not materialize because current fuel projections are higher than those used to develop the 2000 FYDP. DOD s expected savings of $1.22 billion from military payroll adjustments are still questionable since they are dependent on pending legislation. Also, DOD requested congressional approval to fund fiscal year 2000 military construction projects over 2 years instead of 1 year, but Congress rejected DOD s proposal to spread military construction funding over 2 years. There are several other areas of risk that may impact DOD s ability to implement its 2000 FYDP as planned. First, Congress authorized a larger military pay and benefits package in the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2000 than proposed by DOD, and provided funds for this larger pay package for only fiscal year 2000. Without higher levels of funding than currently planned after fiscal year 2000, DOD will need to look elsewhere in its budget to fund these increased benefits. Second, funding requirements for the Defense Health Program are routinely understated. DOD stated that the operation and maintenance portion of the Defense Health Program is underfunded by almost $73 million. Third, no funds were included in the 2000 FYDP for U.S. involvement in Kosovo, and currently available funding may not be sufficient to cover the $2.5 billion estimated cost of Kosovo operations in fiscal year 2000. Fourth, DOD has had difficulty in recent years meeting its planned growth in procurement funding because it has had to move those funds to other priorities, such as readiness. Fifth, family housing accounts may require more funding than programmed in the 2000 FYDP. Finally, DOD assumed savings from reductions in infrastructure through further implementation of competitive sourcing which allows the private sector to bid on performing selected activities and functions and two new rounds of base closures. We have previously reported that DOD s projected savings from competitive sourcing are overly optimistic at least in the short term. In addition, Congress did not authorize additional base closure rounds. Page 6

Background The 2000 FYDP reflected the recommendations of DOD s May 1997 Quadrennial Defense Review, which analyzed U.S. military strategy, force structure readiness, modernization, and infrastructure. In its 1999 Annual Report to the President and the Congress, DOD stated that the armed forces remain fully capable of executing the Quadrennial Defense Review strategy, but ensuring readiness today and in the future has become increasingly difficult. Further, forces that would deploy in the later stages of a conflict are less ready, recruiting and retention rates have declined, and modernization schedules are harder to maintain. The 2000 FYDP was developed to address these problems. The areas targeted for higher funding levels in the 2000 FYDP continue to be readiness and weapons modernization, as in the 1999 FYDP, with an added emphasis on personnel issues, specifically recruiting and retention. Our earlier report on DOD s 1999 FYDP showed that although DOD made adjustments to decrease the risk that funds would be transferred from procurement to unplanned operating expenses, the 1999-2003 program, like previous programs, was based on optimistic assumptions about savings and procurement plans. 5 We found that DOD made optimistic assumptions about the potential to achieve savings through competitive sourcing and reengineering, and these plans may not be completed on schedule. 6 We also stated that if the projected savings from other sources do not materialize, DOD would have to adjust future budgets by cutting programs and/or requesting additional budget authority. Further, we pointed out that the 1999 FYDP projected that procurement funding would increase in real terms by about 29 percent while DOD s total budget would remain relatively flat, despite the experience over the past 32 years that DOD procurement funding rises and falls in direct proportion to movements in its total budget. Also, planned funding increases for modern weapon systems were shifted further into the future, as in previous FYDPs. This movement creates a large demand for procurement funds in later years, which, according to DOD, tends to disrupt planned modernization programs unless additional funds are made available. 5 Future Years Defense Program: Substantial Risks Remain in DOD s 1999-2003 Plan (GAO/NSIAD-98-204, July 31, 1998). 6 Competitive sourcing is a process by which DOD and other federal agencies conduct cost comparisons to determine whether the public or private sector can perform selected activities and functions more cheaply. Page 7

Total Funding in DOD s 2000 FYDP Is Higher Than in the 1999 FYDP Unlike prior FYDPs where DOD planned to increase funds for priorities by reducing costs in other areas and applying the savings to the priorities, the 2000 FYDP included DOD s plan to fund priorities from an increase in total funding. Over the common 4-year period, 2000-2003, in the 1999 and 2000 FYDPs, as shown in table 1, DOD increased its planned total funding by $50.8 billion, a 4.8-percent increase over the funding levels projected in the 1999 FYDP. DOD projected that the $50.8 billion will come from a $45.4 billion increase in DOD s overall funding and a $1.65-billion rescission of previously appropriated funds to offset fiscal year 2000 funding. The remainder was from unobligated funds from prior years, which remain available for obligation. Also, there was growth within each FYDP over the common period. In the 2000 FYDP, the total program was projected to grow by 2.8 percent over the common period. This funding growth was over three times the 0.9-percent growth identified in the 1999 FYDP for this period. Page 8

Table 1: DOD s 1999 and 2000 FYDPs, by Primary Appropriation Category (total obligational authority in billions of fiscal year 2000 dollars) Appropriation category FYDP 2000 2001 2002 2003 Total Percent Change 2000-2003 Military personnel 1999 $71.7 $70.7 $70.0 $69.8 $282.2 2000 73.7 73.8 73.4 73.2 294.1 Change 2.0 3.1 3.3 3.4 11.8 4.2 Operation and maintenance 1999 94.4 94.3 93.9 93.9 376.5 2000 103.3 100.8 99.4 99.5 402.9 Change 8.9 6.5 5.5 5.6 26.4 7.0 Procurement 1999 53.3 59.2 57.5 59.0 228.9 2000 53.0 60.7 60.2 63.0 236.9 Change -0.2 1.5 2.7 4.0 8.0 3.5 Research, development, 1999 33.5 32.0 31.9 32.0 129.4 test, and evaluation 2000 34.4 33.7 33.4 32.6 134.1 Change 0.9 1.7 1.5 0.6 4.7 3.6 Military construction 1999 4.8 4.3 3.5 3.7 16.3 2000 2.3 7.0 4.1 4.1 17.5 Change -2.5 2.7 0.6 0.4 1.2 7.3 Family housing 1999 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.9 15.2 2000 3.2 3.8 3.5 3.6 14.0 Change -0.7 0-0.2-0.3-1.2-7.7 Revolving and management 1999 0.8 0.4 0.4 1.0 2.5 funds 2000 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.7 2.4 Change -0.3 0.4 0.2-0.3-0.1-4.3 Defensewide 1999 0 0 0.8 1.3 2.1 contingencies 2000 0 0 0.8 1.3 2.1 Change 0 0 0 0 0-0.4 Total 1999 $262.3 $264.5 $261.7 $264.6 $1,053.1 0.9 2000 $270.3 $280.5 $275.2 $278.0 $1,104.0 2.8 Change $8.0 $15.9 $13.5 $13.4 $50.8 4.8 Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. Source: Our analysis of FYDP data. Over half of the increase was programmed in operation and maintenance accounts, 23 percent in military personnel accounts, and 16 percent in procurement accounts. These increases reflected DOD s plan to provide Page 9

additional resources for readiness, quality of life, and modernization priorities. DOD stated that this plan strikes a balance between immediate military needs, most notably force readiness and quality of life, and long-term safeguards, including the development and procurement of new weapons and technology, as recommended by the Quadrennial Defense Review. (App. I shows the differences between accounts in the 1999 and 2000 FYDPs for each appropriation over the common years, 2000-2003.) Numerous Risks Exist in the 2000 FYDP DOD may not achieve its 2000 FYDP as planned due to risks in several areas. Of DOD s total budget for the common years, at least $50 billion is at risk. The majority of the funding increase DOD programmed in the 2000 FYDP was projected to come from a share of the overall federal budget surplus, which is uncertain. DOD planned on congressional approval of a $1.65-billion rescission of previously appropriated funds, however, as of the beginning of November, Congress had not fully supported the requested rescission. Some of the expected $15.5 billion in savings and adjustments in the 2000 FYDP may not occur as planned. Savings from lower fuel costs and infrastructure reduction initiatives, such as competitive sourcing, may not occur to the extent DOD programmed in the 2000 FYDP. DOD requested congressional approval to fund fiscal year 2000 military construction projects over 2 years instead of 1 year, but Congress rejected DOD s proposal. Funding requirements for the Defense Health Program are routinely understated and DOD has had difficulty in recent years meeting its planned growth in procurement funding because it has had to move those funds to other priorities. Two new risks have emerged since the 2000 FYDP was submitted to Congress. First, Congress authorized an even larger military pay and benefits package in the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2000 than proposed by DOD, and these additional benefits will have ongoing costs that are not factored into the FYDP. 7 Second, no funds were included in the 2000 FYDP for U.S. involvement in Kosovo, and current funding available for obligation in 2000 may not be sufficient to cover the estimated cost of Kosovo operations. 7 P.L. 106-65, Oct. 5, 1999. Page 10

Most of the Additional Resources Planned for in the 2000 FYDP Are Uncertain Both the projected budget surplus from which the administration plans to receive the additional funding and an agreement on the amount of the surplus that would be allocated to DOD are uncertain. Also, Congress has not fully supported DOD s requested rescission. Of the $50.8 billion in additional funding programmed in the 2000 FYDP, $45.4 billion was projected to come from the total federal budget surplus. This estimated amount is uncertain for several reasons. First, budget surplus projections are uncertain. The administration recognizes that budget projections for any future period are inherently uncertain. Likewise, the Congressional Budget Office reported that the average change between its estimates of annual deficits or surpluses 5 years into the future and the actual results was substantial. 8 Second, the surplus is contingent on continued economic growth, which in itself is uncertain. Third, the administration s proposal to allocate a portion of the surplus to DOD is contingent upon the enactment of legislation that would address the financial soundness of the Social Security program. As of the end of October 1999, no legislation had been passed. Lastly, both the President and Congress must agree on using part of the budget surplus to increase DOD s overall annual funding levels. Although both the President and Congress want to increase funds for DOD, there is no agreement as to how much that increase will be over the period covered by the 2000 FYDP. As a result, the programmed funding increases are uncertain. DOD also requested $1.65 billion in unspecified rescissions of prior year funding to offset total fiscal year 2000 defense funding. Congress approved $31.4 million in rescissions in the second Fiscal Year 1999 Emergency Supplemental Appropriations Act. The Fiscal Year 2000 Defense Appropriations Act rescinded $802.3 million from specified appropriation accounts. Therefore, DOD did not get the entire $1.65 billion in rescissions it requested, but Congress could take further action at a later date. 8 Evaluating CBO s Record of Economic Forecasts, Congressional Budget Office, July 30, 1999. Page 11

Inflation Savings Appear Probable, but Other Savings Are at Risk As shown in table 2, DOD estimated that it would save $15.5 billion as a result of lower inflation rates and fuel costs, and a reduction in military payroll costs. The President directed DOD to retain the savings and allocate them to the Department s most pressing needs. In addition, to free up funds in 2000, DOD requested only $5.4 billion of the $8.5 billion projected cost of fiscal year 2000 military construction projects, and requested the remaining $3.1 billion as an advance fiscal year 2001 appropriation. 9 Table 2: Sources of DOD s 2000 FYDP Savings In billions of constant fiscal year 2000 dollars Total Source 2000 2001 2002 2003 2000-2003 Savings from lower estimated $2.47 $2.81 $2.97 $3.17 $11.42 inflation rates Savings from lower estimated 0.97 0.64 0.60 0.61 2.82 cost of fuels Military payroll adjustments 0.32 0.31 0.30 0.29 1.22 Total savings $3.76 $3.76 $3.87 $4.07 $15.46 Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. Source: Our analysis of DOD data. In the 2000 FYDP, DOD included $11.4 billion in inflation savings for the 2000-2003 period due to a decline in projected inflation rates provided by the Office of Management and Budget. These savings resulted from using mostly lower projected inflation rates to develop the 2000 FYDP than for the 1999 FYDP. The administration s mid-year budget update, which revised the projections for 1998 2005 and beyond, reflected lower inflation rates for 1999 and 2000 and slightly higher inflation rates for 2002 and beyond. According to an Office of Management and Budget official, the reductions in fiscal years 1999 and 2000 compounded over time combined with the small increase in the later years result in almost no net change from the inflation savings estimate included in the 2000 FYDP. Therefore, the most 9 An advance appropriation is budget authority provided in an appropriation act that is first available in a fiscal year beyond the fiscal year for which the appropriation act is enacted. Page 12

recent inflation rate projections continue to support DOD s projected inflation savings in the 2000 FYDP. DOD projected an additional $2.8 billion in savings during the 2000-2003 period from lower fuel costs for ship and jet fuel, diesel oil, and gasoline. The Office of Management and Budget provided DOD with revised inflation estimates for fuel purchases for inclusion in the 2000 President s budget. The estimates lowered the projected cost of fuel from previously budgeted levels. However, the fuel cost factors the Office of Management and Budget provided to DOD in May 1999 were higher than those used to develop the 2000 President s budget. Additionally, as of August 1999, the Department of Energy projected fuel costs would be higher than the Office of Management and Budget s estimates through 2000. Given the projected fuel cost increases, there are risks associated with DOD s ability to achieve all of the savings that were based on lower fuel costs. The remaining $1.2 billion in expected savings come from military payroll adjustments. DOD pays wage credits into the Social Security Trust Fund for non-taxed benefits for which servicemembers pay no social security tax. DOD, however, has submitted a legislative proposal to eliminate these credits, which would result in savings to DOD. As of September 1999, no congressional action had been taken on this proposal. If this proposal does not pass, these savings will not be realized. Page 13

To free up more resources for fiscal year 2000, DOD proposed a plan to finance fiscal year 2000 military construction projects by combining regular and advance appropriations. The regular appropriations only funded DOD s expected fiscal year 2000 obligations for military construction projects scheduled to begin in 2000. The remaining funding for the fiscal year 2000 projects were to come from advance fiscal year 2001 appropriations. This proposal was designed to allow DOD to continue with planned fiscal year 2000 construction projects while providing additional funds to support other high priority programs in 2000 as well as keep the budget within the 2000 budget caps as mandated by the 1997 Budget Enforcement Act. 10 Congress rejected DOD s proposal because it was concerned that incremental funding would lead to increased costs and delayed completion of projects, and that this funding approach would be implemented permanently, creating a large demand for military construction funds beyond 2000. The Fiscal Year 2000 Military Construction Appropriations Act provides $8.4 billion in funding for DOD s fiscal year 2000 military construction priorities, $100 million less than full funding. 11 DOD Will Likely Require Military Pay Funding Above Levels Programmed in the 2000 FYDP DOD proposed four changes to the current military compensation system to address the services recruiting and retention problems. The 2000 FYDP included funding for these four proposals, resulting in the higher annual funding levels for military personnel salaries and benefits, as shown in figure 1. Legislative action, though, introduced risk into the Department s 2000 FYDP military pay program because the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2000 provides an even larger military compensation package than proposed by DOD. The second 1999 emergency supplemental appropriations act and the Fiscal Year 2000 Defense Appropriations Act only provide sufficient funding for this larger package in fiscal year 2000. 12 Therefore, DOD will require higher annual funding levels to meet the additional military pay requirements. 10 1997 Budget Enforcement Act Title X of P.L. 105-33, Aug. 5, 1997. 11 P.L. 106-52, Aug. 17, 1999. 12 P.L. 106-79, Oct. 25, 1999. Page 14

Figure 1: Annual Military Personnel Funding Levels in 1999 and 2000 FYDPs (in billions of fiscal year 2000 dollars) 75 74 73 73.7 73.8 73.4 73.2 72 71.7 71 70.7 70 70.0 69.8 69 68 67 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 Fiscal year 1999 FYDP 2000 FYDP Source: Our analysis of FYDP data. Proposed changes to military base pay account for the largest part of the funding increase in the 2000 FYDP. DOD proposed to partially alleviate the perceived military-civilian pay gap by raising military base pay by 4.4 percent in 2000, the Employment Cost Index of 4.3 percent plus 0.1 percent. 13 DOD proposed annual raises of 3.9 percent thereafter for the remainder of the 2000 FYDP period, which is the projected Employment Cost Index rate in the future. 13 The Employment Cost Index is a measure of overall compensation trends in the economy. Page 15

Pay table reform was another military pay initiative. The proposal provides progressively higher pay increases for servicemembers for each promotion they receive, so pay increases for promotions would generally be higher than those tied to longevity. These increases were meant to be incentives to remain in the service for noncommissioned and mid-grade commissioned officers with the experience, skills, and knowledge most needed by the services. DOD also proposed to increase funding for other incentives to enlist and retain people with certain skills. The services are currently using special and incentive pays to retain personnel with the most critical skills, such as pilots. Since skill areas, such as surface warfare officers, are experiencing shortages, the 2000 FYDP added retention bonuses for personnel possessing those skills. To help meet recruiting goals, the services increased funding for recruiting incentives. For example, the Army and the Navy included funding for enlistment bonuses during slow recruiting months (Feb. through May) and increases for college fund incentives, while the Air Force planned to increase its advertising budget for recruiting. Finally, DOD proposed to reverse the changes made to the military retirement system by the Military Retirement Reform Act of 1986. 14 This act, commonly known as REDUX, reduced anticipated future retired pay levels for personnel who entered the military service after August 1, 1986, from 50 to 40 percent of base pay for servicemembers retiring with 20 years of service. In addition, DOD s proposal provided cost-of-living increases for retirees during periods of low inflation. All of the services believe that the REDUX system negatively affects career retention behavior. The National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2000 was passed on October 5, 1999. This law provides a substantially larger pay and benefits package than the administration proposed. For example, the law provides a 4.8-percent pay raise in 2000 instead of the 4.4 percent proposed by the administration. Pay and benefits increases constitute permanent legislation. They are included in defense authorization legislation, not in appropriation measures, though the amount of money provided for military personnel in the appropriations act is directly affected by any changes. Pay increases for 2001-2006 will be based on the Employment Cost Index plus 14 Military Retirement Reform Act of 1986 P.L. 99-348, July 1, 1986. Page 16

0.5 percent instead of the administration s proposed annual 3.9 percent increases for 2001-2005. The second 1999 supplemental appropriations act and the Fiscal Year 2000 Defense Appropriations Act have sufficient funding to cover the larger congressionally approved military pay and benefits packages for 2000. However, without higher levels of funding than currently planned after 2000, DOD will need to look elsewhere in its budget to fund these benefits, possibly adversely affecting its current plans to meet its procurement and readiness goals. Risks Exist in Achieving Higher Operation and Maintenance Funding Levels Like the 1999 FYDP, the 2000 FYDP provided for increased operation and maintenance (O&M) funding. According to DOD, the additional funds are needed to maintain U.S. forces readiness. DOD may not be able to execute its O&M program as planned, though, due to several factors. First, it is unclear at this point if congressional action on the 2000 budget provided DOD with more or less O&M funding than DOD stated is required to maintain readiness. Second, the funding requirements for the Defense Health Program, which is over 10 percent of DOD s annual O&M budget, are routinely underestimated. Finally, DOD may not have sufficient funding for its ongoing contingency operations in locations such as Kosovo. To address growing readiness concerns, DOD allocated higher annual funding levels for O&M in the 2000 FYDP than in the 1999 FYDP, as shown in figure 2. 15 For the 2000-2003 period, total funding was $26.4 billion higher, a 7-percent increase. The O&M portion of the defense budget is most closely related to readiness. The O&M budget funds the costs of purchasing fuel, spare parts, and other items associated with training and military operations. 15 As noted earlier, the values in our report reflect only that portion of the first 1999 supplemental appropriation that had been declared emergency and released by the Office of Management and Budget prior to the 2000 budget submission in February 1999, and do not reflect the additional 1999 and 2000 resources provided to DOD in the second 1999 emergency supplemental appropriation because it was not reflected in the President s budget and FYDP. Page 17

Figure 2: Annual Operation and Maintenance Funding Levels in 1999 and 2000 FYDP (in billions of fiscal year 2000 dollars) 104 103.3 102 100 100.8 99.4 99.5 98 96 94 94.4 94.3 93.9 93.9 92 90 88 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 Fiscal year 1999 FYDP 2000 FYDP Source: Our analysis of FYDP data. According to DOD, its readiness indicators in 1998 showed declines in readiness. In September 1998, the service chiefs testified before the Senate Committee on Armed Services that they needed more resources to fully address emerging readiness concerns, and in October 1998, the Office of Management and Budget, on behalf of the administration, submitted a supplemental appropriations request for a $1-billion defense readiness package to the Chairmen of the Appropriations Committees. In response, Congress provided $1.3 billion in additional readiness funding in the first 1999 emergency supplemental appropriations act of 1999. Although DOD testified before the House Armed Services Readiness Subcommittee in February 1999 that the principal purpose of the overall funding level increase in the 2000 FYDP was to meet the most urgent near and long-term Page 18

readiness needs, Congress provided $2.35 billion in additional readiness funding in the second 1999 emergency supplemental appropriations act. The readiness items included in both 1999 emergency supplemental appropriations were some of the same items that are priority items for the services in the 2000 FYDP. For example, the Army planned to increase funds for flying hours, training, barracks, depot maintenance, and installation improvements. The Navy increased funding for additional flying hours, ship maintenance, and spare parts. The Air Force increased funding for spare parts and recruiting and retention initiatives. In addition, DOD s O&M program also included $10 billion in planned pay raises for DOD civilians. There is some indication that DOD may not get the O&M funds it said it needed to sustain readiness. In addition to the funding provided in the second fiscal year 1999 emergency supplemental appropriation, the Fiscal Year 2000 Defense Appropriations Act provides DOD with more O&M funding than it requested in its budget. However, there are offsets that may result in DOD receiving less O&M funding than it requested. The act includes offsets to the amount of O&M funding provided in the act equal to $1.05 billion, which was provided in the second fiscal year 1999 emergency supplemental appropriation. The act also includes O&M offsets of $363 million to reflect savings from civilian pay, favorable foreign currency fluctuations, and competitive sourcing. DOD Has Difficulty Estimating Funding Requirements of the Defense Health Program In 2000, the Defense Health Program was projected to account for over 10 percent of DOD s 2000 O&M appropriations. Defense Health Program funding was projected to receive $1.4 billion (3.4 percent) more funding over the 2000-2003 period in the 2000 FYDP than in the 1999 FYDP. Figure 3 shows annual funding level projections from both FYDPs. Page 19

Figure 3: Annual Defense Health Program Funding Levels in 1999 and 2000 FYDPs (in billions of fiscal year 2000 dollars) 11.2 11.0 11.0 10.8 10.8 10.7 10.6 10.4 10.3 10.6 10.4 10.3 10.5 10.2 10.0 9.8 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 Fiscal year 1999 FYDP 2000 FYDP Source: Our analysis of FYDP data. The funding levels projected for the Defense Health Program in the 2000 FYDP may not be adequate to execute the program as planned. In the last few years, funding requirements for the program, as presented to Congress as part of the President s budget in February, have been underestimated. The Fiscal Year 1997 Defense Appropriations Act added about $475 million to the program to address a shortfall discovered after the initial budget was submitted. 16 In 1998, DOD s Comptroller submitted a budget amendment to add $274 million to the program to fully fund it. 16 P.L. 104-208, Sept. 30, 1996. Page 20

Despite DOD s testimony in February 1998 that the core programs of the 1999 Defense Health Program were fully funded, the services later reported that the funding shortfall could be as much as $613 million. The Defense Health Program received an additional $347 million for 1999 than requested in DOD s original budget. The Department of Defense Appropriations Act for Fiscal Year 2000 provides $320 million more in funding than requested by DOD for the Defense Health Program. Over 85 percent of these funds are allocated to research, development, test, and evaluation activities. Congress added $108 million in new O&M programs, which were not requested by the administration. Congress offset this $108 million by $63 million of budget execution savings, for a net $45-million increase in O&M funding. In addition, the Appropriations Act reduces the total amount appropriated to the Defense Health Program by $9.8 million to reflect savings from favorable foreign currency fluctuations. DOD stated that these actions underfund the O&M portion of the Defense Health Program by almost $73 million, and as a result will likely require additional funding. We recently reported that there is risk to the sufficiency of the projected annual funding levels for the Defense Health Program. 17 Program officials told us that the beneficiary population is largely undefined because neither military treatment facilities nor managed care support contractors require enrollment for most of the beneficiaries and that this is a major impediment to submitting realistic Defense Health Program budget requests. DOD currently relies on surveys to estimate how many beneficiaries use military facilities and managed care and to what extent DOD is their primary or secondary source of coverage. We estimated that at the end of 1998 less than half of the 8.2 million DOD-eligible beneficiaries were enrolled in the military health system. We and the Congressional Budget Office concluded that for DOD to better estimate costs and efficiently manage the Defense Health Program system, it needs a universal beneficiary enrollment system to clearly identify the population for whom health care is to be provided. 18 DOD s budgeting uncertainties in the Defense Health Program stem, in large measure, from its lack of a universal beneficiary enrollment requirement. 17 Defense Health Program: Reporting of Funding Adjustments Would Assist Congressional Oversight (GAO/HEHS-99-79, April 29, 1999). 18 Restructuring Military Medical Care, July 1995, Congressional Budget Office. Page 21

DOD May Need Additional O&M Funds for Ongoing Contingency Operations Current estimated costs for fiscal year 2000 ongoing contingency operations costs are likely to exceed $5 billion. The President s budget for 2000 included $1.8 billion for ongoing Bosnia operations and $1.1 billion for Southwest Asia. Since there were no operations in Kosovo at the time the 2000 budget was submitted, no funds were included for U.S. involvement in Kosovo. DOD s current, but not finalized, estimate for the cost of U.S. military participation in the Kosovo peace enforcement force in 2000 is $2.5 billion. We estimated that as much as $475 million provided for fiscal year 1999 contingency operations were in excess of 1999 costs. 19,20 The excess was due primarily to the fact that combat operations in Kosovo ended in June rather than continuing to the end of the fiscal year as anticipated by DOD s supplemental appropriations request and the funding provided by Congress. The majority of these funds for fiscal year 1999 contingency operations have been appropriated to the Overseas Contingency Operations Transfer Fund, which are available until expended. If DOD s $2.5 billion estimate for fiscal year 2000 U.S. participation in Kosovo is correct, and DOD does have $475 million available from fiscal year 1999 appropriations to apply to fiscal year 2000 costs, DOD will still require over $2 billion in additional funds for its ongoing Kosovo operations to pay for the costs not covered by the excess 1999 funds. Also, DOD may need more funds for both Bosnia and Southwest Asia operations than projected when the 2000 FYDP was finalized because the Fiscal Year 2000 Defense Appropriations Act provides less for these operations than proposed in the 2000 FYDP. Finally, DOD programmed only minimal amounts for new unexpected contingencies (less than $300 million in 2002 and 2003), which will place a further burden on DOD s resources, if additional funds are required during that period. 19 Military Operations: Some Funds for Fiscal Year 1999 Contingency Operations Will Be Available for Future Needs (GAO/NSIAD-99-244BR, Sept. 21, 1999). 20 The contingency funding values for 1999 are in current dollars. Page 22

Even if Congress appropriates supplemental funds for the ongoing and unexpected contingencies, Congress continues to debate whether rescissions from other defense programs should be imposed to offset some or all of the funding provided. If the funding is designated as an emergency requirement, Congress can approve supplemental funds without offsetting the amounts with rescissions in previously enacted discretionary appropriations or mandatory spending programs. The controversy has been that if Congress and the President agree to define the supplemental appropriations as an emergency, discretionary spending rises beyond the discretionary spending caps and the size of the budget surplus declines. In 1993 through 1997, Congress offset some, but not all, of the emergency supplemental appropriations. 21 In 1998, Congress provided DOD with emergency appropriations without offsets. The two emergency supplemental appropriations for 1999 provided DOD with $7.7 billion and $10.7 billion, respectively, and required less than $100 million each in offsets of DOD programs, but only after extensive debate and a threat of presidential veto. 22 In the past, rescissions came from inflation savings, fuel savings, and large unobligated budget authority, but such savings from less contentious sources are not always possible according to the Congressional Research Service. Since historically, DOD has only programmed for and Congress has only appropriated for ongoing contingency operations, the services generally have borrowed funds from other activities that they planned to conduct later in the fiscal year to pay for new or expanded contingencies. Although Congress has appropriated supplemental funding to pay for the added costs of contingencies, DOD may be required, as it has in the past, to reduce funding in the short term for other programs through reprogramming and rescissions, adversely impacting those programs such as readiness. Planned Increase in Procurement Funding at Risk DOD programmed $8 billion (3.5 percent) more in procurement funds over the 2001-2003 period in the 2000 FYDP than in the 1999 FYDP. About half of the increase occurred in 2003 when the discretionary spending caps are 21 Emergency Appropriations for the Department of Defense, Congressional Research Service memorandum, Aug. 18, 1998. 22 Appropriations Supplemental for FY1999: Emergency Funding in P.L. 105-277 for Agriculture, Embassy Security, Y2K Problems, Defense, and Other Issues, Congressional Research Service Report for Congress, RL 30056, Feb. 25, 1999 and Supplemental Appropriations for FY1999: Central America Disaster Aid, Middle East Peace, and Other Initiatives, Congressional Research Service Report for Congress, RL30083, May 26, 1999. Page 23

expected to end. DOD planned to add to the procurement of items in its Quadrennial Defense Review modernization plan. For example, the 2000 FYDP included an additional new attack submarine in the Navy s shipbuilding plan and accelerated the rate of procurement of the Marine Corps tilt-rotor V-22 aircraft. Despite the net increase, procurement funding for both the Army and defensewide components was projected to decrease during the same period. Figure 4 compares total procurement funding in the 2000 FYDP with annual procurement funding projections in the 1999 FYDP. Figure 4: Annual Procurement Funding Levels in the 1999 and 2000 FYDPs (in billions of fiscal year 2000 dollars) 64 63.0 62 60 59.2 60.7 60.2 59.0 58 57.5 56 54 52 53.3 53.0 50 48 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 Fiscal year 1999 FYDP 2000 FYDP Source: Our analysis of FYDP data. Page 24

In recent years, DOD has had difficulty in meeting its planned growth in procurement funding. Although the 2000 FYDP projected that DOD will meet the Quadrennial Defense Review s goal of $60 billion in procurement funding by 2001, this plan follows the pattern of previous FYDPs by putting most of the procurement funding increase in the outyears of the FYDP. We have reported that DOD reduced programmed procurement in successive FYDPs and reprogrammed some procurement to the years beyond the FYDP. 23 The 2000 FYDP is no exception. The level of procurement funding for 2000 was slightly reduced in the 2000 FYDP from the level projected in the 1999 FYDP. In addition, procurement plans were either canceled or reprogrammed to the outyears of the FYDP. For example, Army officials stated that the Army terminated the Improved Recovery Vehicle program and moved funding for the CH-47 cargo helicopter upgrades to the outyears. The Army stated that funds originally slated for these programs would be used to increase O&M funding for such activities as depot maintenance, real property maintenance, and active component flying hours for training. According to the Army, these cuts in procurement will adversely affect future readiness because the Army will have to rely on older, more maintenance intensive equipment. The Quadrennial Defense Review stated that as successive FYDPs reduced the amount of programmed procurement, some of these reductions have accumulated into long-term projections, creating a large demand for procurement funds in the outyears. This movement of procurement funding to the outyears is a source of risk to the long-term affordability of the Department s modernization plans. The Quadrennial Defense Review stated that to ensure that DOD meets and maintains its $60-billion minimum funding level for procurement, DOD must stop the movement of funding planned for procurement in the FYDP to other accounts and achieve the overall funding increases it has programmed in its FYDPs to pay, in part, for its modernization plans. 23 Future Years Defense Program: Substantial Risks Remain in DOD s 1999-2003 Plan and DOD Budget: Substantial Risk in Weapons Modernization Plans (GAO/T-NSIAD-99-20, Oct. 8, 1998). Page 25

Family Housing Accounts May Require More Funding Than Programmed in the 2000 FYDP DOD programmed less money in the 2000 FYDP for family housing due to planned further implementation of the Military Housing Privatization Initiative. The purpose of the Initiative is to encourage private sector investment, rather than use government funding, to build and operate housing on military installations or in nearby communities where local markets could not meet military housing needs. The House Appropriations Military Construction Subcommittee, though, was concerned with some of the services plans to move to greater use of the Initiative instead of using the Initiative as a supplement to traditional military housing construction financing, which funds the construction and operation of military housing solely through DOD funding. As a result, the Army and the Navy scaled back their privatization plans and stated that the 2001 FYDP will show higher projected funding levels in the family housing construction and operations appropriation accounts. Funding for family housing operations and construction activities was projected to be lower in the 2000 FYDP than in the 1999 FYDP over the 2000-2003 period, as shown in figure 5. Total funding for this period was projected to be about $1.1 billion less in the 2000 FYDP. Page 26

Figure 5: Annual Family Housing Funding Levels in the 1999 and 2000 FYDPs (in billions of fiscal year 2000 dollars) 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.8 3.2 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.9 3.5 3.6 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 Fiscal year 1999 FYDP 2000 FYDP Source: Our analysis of FYDP data. Over the past several years, DOD had expressed concern over the poor condition of military family housing. To more quickly and economically remedy the housing problems, the Fiscal Year 1996 National Defense Authorization Act gave DOD the authority to test a new initiative, known as the DOD s Military Housing Privatization Initiative. 24 DOD s goal was to reduce the government s near-term outlays for housing revitalization by 24 P.L. 104-106, Feb. 10, 1996. Page 27