Weapons of Mass Destruction

Weapons of Mass Destruction

Also by Edward M. Spiers ARMY AND SOCIETY, 1815 1914 CHEMICAL WARFARE CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS: A Study of Proliferation CHEMICAL WEAPONRY: A Continuing Challenge HALDANE: An Army Reformer RADICAL GENERAL: Sir George de Lacy Evans SUDAN: The Reconquest Reappraised (editor) THE LATE VICTORIAN ARMY, 1868 1914

Weapons of Mass Destruction Prospects for Proliferation Edward M. Spiers

First published in Great Britain 2000 by MACMILLAN PRESS LTD Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS and London Companies and representatives throughout the world A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. ISBN 978-1-349-40935-8 ISBN 978-0-333-98373-7 (ebook) DOI 10.1057/9780333983737 First published in the United States of America 2000 by ST. MARTIN S PRESS, INC., Scholarly and Reference Division, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10010 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Spiers, Edward M. Weapons of mass destruction : prospects for proliferation / Edward M. Spiers. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. 1. Weapons of mass destruction. 2. World politics 1989 I. Title. U793.S65 1999 327.1'74 dc21 99 042136 Edward M. Spiers 2000 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2000 978-0-333-73938-9 All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission. No paragraph of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, 90 Tottenham Court Road, London W1P 0LP. Any person who does any unauthorised act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages. The author has asserted his right to be identified as the author of this work in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. This book is printed on paper suitable for recycling and made from fully managed and sustained forest sources. 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 09 08 07 06 05 04 03 02 01 00

Contents Preface Abbreviations vi viii 1 Weapons of Mass Destruction: The Cold War Context 1 2 WMD Crises and Revelations in the 1990s 19 3 Political Leadership and Nonproliferation 40 4 Military Utility of Weapons of Mass Destruction 57 5 NBC Terrorism 76 6 Multilateral Control Regimes: Their Role and Impact 98 7 Counterproliferation 119 8 Proliferation: Risks and Challenges 140 Notes 157 Select Bibliography 196 Index 211 v

Preface In writing about weapons of mass destruction (WMD) as a collective description of nuclear, biological and chemical weapons, I am aware that the term is far from exact. These weapons have different properties, relative lethalities, and areas of coverage; they can even be used in ways that might not be construed as massively destructive. As security issues, though, they remain all too prominent in the post-cold War era, reflecting the continuing political and security concerns of particular states and the widespread diffusion of scientific and technological expertise. This proliferation has raised legitimate anxieties about their usage in regional conflicts, as instruments of terror, and as countervailing factors to the overwhelming conventional weapons superiority of the United States, its allies, and any US-led coalitions. Although there are novel aspects to the contemporary phenomenon, as confirmed by the revelations about the capabilities of Iraq, the former Soviet Union and Aum Shinrikyo, I shall argue that proliferation has its roots in the Cold War, and that these weapons have a continuing political and military utility. I shall also claim that the challenge posed by these weapons is becoming more diverse and daunting as the technology, particularly of biological weapons, steadily evolves and as these weapons are generally much less conspicuous than the military power deployed by the Soviets during the Cold War. In examining how these weapons may be countered, I shall argue that neither diplomacy nor military strikes will suffice in and of themselves, and that there are no panaceas available. Strengthening international norms, arms control, and to a lesser extent export controls may help, especially if supported by the requisite political determination and an array of offensive and defensive military assets. The combination may bolster deterrence and persuade some states to abandon their WMD capabilities. I shall assert, though, that events in the 1990s have demonstrated the limitations of intrusive on-site inspections against a determined proliferator; the shortcomings of precision aerial bombardments; and the controversies aroused by attempts to resolve WMD crises by diplomatic endeavour and economic inducements. I shall argue that any effective response will depend upon consistent American leadership, with a broad measure of international support in matters of intelligence, diplomatic activity, and, if necessary, military effort. vi

Preface vii I should like to acknowledge my indebtedness to the many individuals and institutions who have assisted me in my research. I am particularly grateful to Dr Graham Pearson, Dr John Walker (Foreign and Commonwealth Office), Professor Adam Roberts, Professor Malcolm Dando, Professor John Gooch, Dr Rachel Utley, Dr Richard Latter and Donato Kiniger-Passigli (head of Media and Public Affairs Branch, External Affairs Division, Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons). I am also obliged to the staffs of the Australian High Commission, Resource Center (US Embassy London), the United Nations Information Centre, the Royal Institute of International Affairs, the Arms Control and Disarmament Agency, the German Embassy, the Henry L. Stimson Center, the British Library Colindale, the Library of the Washington Times, and the inter-library loan staff of the University of Leeds. Like many other scholars, I am especially grateful to the website maintained by Ms Melinda Havers-Lamont (Chem-Bio Terror News of the Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Washington DC office of the Monterey Institute of International Studies). As ever, I received enormous assistance and many useful briefings in the United States. I am indebted to Steve Bowman (Congressional Research Service), Dr Brad Roberts (Institute for Defense Analyses), Mr William W. Cawood (General Accounting Office), Dr Zachary S. Davis (US Arms Control and Disarmament Agency), Dr Randy J. Rydell (Professional Staff, Senate Committee on Governmental Affairs), General Walter L. Busbee (Deputy Assistant to the Secretary of Defense for Counterproliferation and Chemical/Biological Defense), Michael Moodie (Chemical and Biological Arms Control Institute), and Dr Ted Prociv (Chemical Demilitarisation). I am particularly grateful to Mrs Margaret Walkington and Mrs Christine Cascarino for their secretarial assistance in the preparation of this work. I remain indebted to Fiona, my wife, and Robert and Amanda for all their support and tolerance in the preparation of this manuscript. 27 April 1999 Edward M. Spiers

Abbreviations AAAS ACDA BIDS BTWC BW CAM CBIRF CBM CBW CBWCB CCD CEN CIA CIS COCOM CPRC CTBT CW CWC DARPA DCI DGP DHHS DIA DoD DoE EMIS EPA EPCI FBI FBIS FCO FEMA GAO GPS American Association for the Advancement of Science Arms Control and Disarmament Agency Biological Integrated Detection System Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention biological warfare Chemical Agent Monitor Chemical/Biological Incident Response Force confidence-building measure chemical and biological warfare The CBW Conventions Bulletin camouflage, concealment or deception Chemical & Engineering News Central Intelligence Agency Commonwealth of Independent States Coordinating Committee for Multilateral Export Controls Counterproliferation Review Committee Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty chemical warfare Chemical Weapons Convention Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency Defense Counterproliferation Initiative Senior Defence Group on Proliferation Department of Health and Human Services Defense Intelligence Agency Department of Defense Department of Energy Electro-Magnetic Isotope Separation Environmental Protection Agency Enhanced Proliferation Control Initiative Federal Bureau of Investigation Foreign Broadcast Information Service Foreign and Commonwealth Office Federal Emergency Management Agency General Accounting Office Global Positioning System viii

Abbreviations ix HEU HUMINT IAEA IDR IISS JAMA JDW JIR JSLIST KT KTO LR-BSDS LWR MEADS MoD MOPP MoU MT MTCR Mw NAIAD NBC NDPO NEST NIS NPT NSG OMV OPCW OSI OTA PAL RAID RPV RSCAAL RUSI SIPRI SIR START THAAD TMD highly enriched uranium human intelligence International Atomic Energy Agency International Defense Review International Institute for Strategic Studies Journal of the American Medical Association Jane s Defense Weekly Jane s Intelligence Review Joint Service Lightweight Integrated Suit Technology kiloton Kuwaiti Theatre of Operations Long Range Biological Standoff Detection System light-water reactor Medium Extended Air Defense System Ministry of Defence Mission-Oriented Protective Posture Memorandum of Understanding megaton Missile Technology Control Regime megawatt Nerve Agent Immobilized Enzyme Alarm nuclear, biological and chemical National Defense Preparedness Office Nuclear Emergency Search Team newly independent states Non-Proliferation Treaty Nuclear Suppliers Group Ongoing Monitoring and Verification Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons on-site inspection Office of Technology Assessment Permissive Action Link Rapid Assessment and Initial Detection Remotely Piloted Vehicle Remote Sensing Chemical Agent Alarm Royal United Services Institute for Defence Studies Stockholm International Peace Research Institute Status of Implementation Report Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty Theater High Altitude Area Defense theatre missile defence

x Abbreviations UAV UNSCOM USIS VEE VIR WMD unmanned air vehicles United Nations Special Commission United States Information Service Venezuelan equine encephalitis Verification Implementation Report weapons of mass destruction