Labour Market Trends Jobs Online Trends in New Zealand Job Adver sements July 2018
Ministry of Business, Innova on and Employment (MBIE) Hīkina Whakatutuki Li ing to make successful MBIE develops and delivers policy, services, advice and regula on to support economic growth and the prosperity and well-being of New Zealanders. MBIE combines the former Ministries of Economic Development, Science + Innova on, and the Departments of Labour and Building and Housing. More informa on www.mbie.govt.nz 0800 20 90 20 Informa on, examples and answers to your ques ons about the topics covered here can be found on our website www.mbie.govt.nz or by calling us free on 0800 20 90 20. Disclaimer This document is a guide only. It should not be used as a subs tute for legisla on or legal advice. The Ministry of Business, Innova on and Employment is not responsible for the results of any ac ons taken on the basis of informa on in this document, or for any errors or omissions. 2253-5721 July 2018 Crown copyright 2018 The material contained in this report is subject to Crown copyright protec on unless otherwise indicated. The Crown copyright protected material may be reproduced free of charge in any format or media without requiring specific permission. This is subject to the material being reproduced accurately and not being used in a derogatory manner or in a misleading context. Where the material is being published or issued to others, the source and copyright status should be acknowledged. The permission to reproduce Crown copyright protected material does not extend to any material in this report that is iden fied as being the copyright of a third party. Authoriza on to reproduce such material should be obtained from the copyright holders.
Introduc on OVERVIEW OF KEY TRENDS Online adver sements grew 1.9 per cent in the June 2018 quarter, a drop from the 2.4 per cent growth in the March 2018 quarter. The strongest percentage growth in online adver sing over the quarter came from service industries, par cularly health and educa on. The volume of adver sing from the health and business services industries meant those two industries showed the strongest total growth. Adver sing for higher skilled occupa ons rose most strongly over the quarter; led by community and personal services, clerical and administra on, with similar increases for professionals and managers. Over the year, growth was driven by unskilled openings. Semi-skilled occupa ons showed weakest growth, consistent with the long-term so ening in demand for these workers. Auckland s size means it is usually the main driver of quarterly growth, but Wellington s influence has been greater this quarter, with a significant contribu on from Waikato. Over the year, the main drivers of overall growth lay in the main centres of Wellington and Auckland. Purpose of Jobs Online Jobs Online measures changes in online job adver sements from four internet job boards: SEEK, Trade Me Jobs, the Educa on Gaze e and Kiwi Health Jobs. Job adver sements are a proxy for job vacancies, a key indicator of labour demand and economic change. The rela onship between job adver sements and labour demand is complex, par cularly when disaggregated at an industry, occupa on and regional level. For example, an increase in job adver sements by a par cular industry may indicate the industry is expanding, and looking for new workers; or the industry has a high rate of churn (workers are moving between businesses, but overall employment is not necessarily increasing). Likewise, declining job adver sing can signal reduced headcount in an industry, or that the industry is using alterna ves to adver sing in their hiring process (such as word-of-mouth or social networks). With these caveats in mind, data from Jobs Online tracks well with other labour market indicators, such as the unemployment rate.
Overall Job Adver sements Job adver sements point to an upwards but slowing trend in job openings Online job adver sements increased by 1.9 per cent in the June 2018 quarter. This is down from the 2.4 per cent growth recorded in the March 2018 quarter. Overall, job adver sements rose by 7.5 per cent in the year to June. Recent indicators of business confidence give weight to a pessimis c outlook: NZIER s Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion, for example, shows only a net 1 per cent of retail businesses intend to increase headcount over the next quarter, a fall from previous quarters. 1 Figure 1: All Vacancies Index 1 New Zealand Ins tute of Economic Research, Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion: June quarter 2018 MINISTRY OF BUSINESS, INNOVATION & EMPLOYMENT 2 Jobs Online: June 2018
Figure 2: Annual change in All Vacancies Index Annual Percentage Change (%) 15 10 5 0 2012 2014 2016 2018 MINISTRY OF BUSINESS, INNOVATION & EMPLOYMENT 3 Jobs Online: June 2018
Job Adver sements by Industry Quarterly growth led by services industries At an industry level, percentage growth over the June quarter has been led by services industries, specifically healthcare and medical services, followed by educa on, IT and sales. This marks a shi from early-2017, when growth was led by manufacturing and transport and the primary industries. The main drivers of overall adver sing growth in the quarter were construc on and manufacturing, in terms of the number of lis ngs. The volume of adver sing for healthcare and medical service posi ons meant these were the main drivers of annual growth. Figure 3: Quarterly and annual changes in online job adver sements by industry MINISTRY OF BUSINESS, INNOVATION & EMPLOYMENT 4 Jobs Online: June 2018
Figure 4: Indices by industry MINISTRY OF BUSINESS, INNOVATION & EMPLOYMENT 5 Jobs Online: June 2018
Job Adver sements by Occupa on and skill level Skilled and semi-skilled adver sements on the increase For this quarter, there was an increase in the number of adver sements for the clerical and administra ve, community and personal service occupa ons and for professionals. Demand for low and unskilled occupa ons has slowed from previous quarters. Over the year, the growth is s ll largest for labourers followed by community and personal service workers. Figure 5: Quarterly and annual changes in online job adver sements by occupa on MINISTRY OF BUSINESS, INNOVATION & EMPLOYMENT 6 Jobs Online: June 2018
Figure 6: Indices by occupa on Higher skilled jobs lead growth Quarterly growth has been led by skilled and high-skilled jobs. Weakest growth was for semi-skilled and unskilled jobs, reflec ng a longer-term slow-down. The annual growth, however, was led by unskilled and low skilled, followed closely by high-skilled. The skill levels contribu ng most to growth were highly skilled, low skilled and skilled vacancies when the numbers of adver sements are considered. Figure 7: Quarterly and annual changes in online job adver sements by skill level MINISTRY OF BUSINESS, INNOVATION & EMPLOYMENT 7 Jobs Online: June 2018
Figure 8: Indices by skill levels MINISTRY OF BUSINESS, INNOVATION & EMPLOYMENT 8 Jobs Online: June 2018
Job Adver sements by Region Provincial New Zealand leads growth in job adver sing Growth in job adver sements was strongest outside the main centres in the June quarter. Highest percentage growth was recorded in Gisborne/Hawke s Bay and Manawatu/Whanganui/Taranaki. Waikato, Northland, Bay of Plenty and Otago/Southland also had moderate growth. The lowest growth was in Canterbury and Auckland. However, given Auckland s size, even its low percentage growth had the greatest impact on overall growth, with moderate contribu ons from Wellington and Waikato in the June quarter. The annual growth picture is similar to the quarterly change, with Auckland and Canterbury showing up as the lowest, and Bay of Plenty showing the greatest growth rate. For some me, growth has been led by openings for labourers and machinery operators and drivers in that order. In Auckland, the main annual occupa onal drivers of growth are now professionals and clerical and administra ve occupa ons; offse ng an annual fall in openings for sales, managers, and machinery operators and drivers. Figure 9: Quarterly and annual changes in online job adver sements by region MINISTRY OF BUSINESS, INNOVATION & EMPLOYMENT 9 Jobs Online: June 2018
Figure 10: Indices by region NORTHLAND Northland job adver sements grew by 4.0 per cent over the quarter, and 15.7 per cent over the year: growth has been so ening over the past year, but remains elevated. The main drivers of quarterly growth was the health sector. Annual growth was driven by construc on and sales sectors. At an occupa onal level, technicians and trades workers were the largest driver of annual growth, followed by professionals, and clerical and administra on workers. AUCKLAND Auckland job adver sements grew by 0.7 per cent over the quarter, and 1.4 per cent over the year: s ll a slow growth rate for this region and one if the slowest of all regions at both quarterly and annual level. Most growth has been from the health sector and informa on technology industries. Professionals lead the occupa on vacancies, with reduc ons in sales, managers, and machinery operators and drivers. Over the year, labourers and professionals lead the growth. WAIKATO Waikato job adver sements grew by 4 per cent over the quarter, largely driven by construc on jobs. Healthcare also pushed up quarterly growth, with sales and business services showing a smaller contribu on. There were large reduc ons in manufacturing and primary industries. Job MINISTRY OF BUSINESS, INNOVATION & EMPLOYMENT 10 Jobs Online: June 2018
adver sements in the region were up 17.8 per cent over the year, with a similar set of drivers (construc on and healthcare showing significant annual increases). At an occupa onal level, sales occupa ons drove the growth with clerical, professional and trades having an impact. BAY OF PLENTY Bay of Plenty job adver sements rose 3.8 per cent in the quarter, and 21.4 per cent over the year, bouncing back from slowing growth in 2017. Healthcare and hospitality were the main drivers of growth, followed by construc on. Construc on, healthcare and manufacturing are the main drivers of annual growth in the region. At an occupa onal level, the main drivers of growth were professionals and managers, which have the biggest influence on both quarterly and annual growth. GISBORNE/HAWKE S BAY Gisborne/Hawke s Bay experienced a 7.1 per cent increase in the quarter to June 2018, and a 17.4 percent since June 2017, The largest quarterly and annual growth was from construc on and healthcare. Professionals and managers contributed to most of the growth over the quarter, with the professionals having the biggest impact on occupa ons over the year. MANAWATU-WHANGANUI/TARANAKI Manawatu-Whanganui/Taranaki had one of the largest quarterly increases with 4.8 per cent in June 2018, with manufacturing, business services, healthcare and sales the main contributors to the growth. Over the year, there was a healthy 18.9 per cent increase driven by the health sector, construc on and manufacturing. Machinery operators and drivers had the largest increase, but the biggest contribu on was from professional occupa ons. Over the year, technical and trades workers along with machinery operators and drivers had the biggest influence. WELLINGTON Wellington showed a modest increase of 3.4 per cent in the June 2018 quarter, and 9.3 per cent over the year. Construc on had the greatest impact, along with business services and sales. Over the year, hospitality and business services had the largest influence by a substan al margin. Professionals had the biggest impact over the quarter, followed by managers, clerical and trades workers. Over the year, professionals and managers drove the increase. NELSON/TASMAN/MARLBOROUGH/WEST COAST Rising 3.6 percent in the June 2018 quarter, the upper South Island was influenced by growth in construc on and healthcare. Over the year, with a rise of 18.7 per cent healthcare and construc on were the biggest drivers for the industry groups. Trades workers and professionals were the most influen al occupa on groups for the both the quarter and the year. MINISTRY OF BUSINESS, INNOVATION & EMPLOYMENT 11 Jobs Online: June 2018
CANTERBURY Canterbury was one of the two regions lower than the na onal average with only 0.1 per cent rise in the June 2018 quarter and 1.7 per cent over the year. Business services, healthcare and hospitality are now showing much larger impacts than construc on, both for the quarter and the year. The clerical and administra on, along with community and personal services occupa ons were the main drivers, followed by professionals and managers across the quarter, but labourers vacancies s ll have the greatest impact on the annual growth. OTAGO/SOUTHLAND Job adver sements in Otago/Southland rose by 3.7 per cent in the June 2018 quarter, and 19.3 per cent over the year. For the quarter, the most significant increases were in sales and IT, but the annual increase was s ll dominated by construc on, with healthcare and manufacturing also contribu ng. For occupa ons, the machinery operators and drivers occupa on group led the way along with professionals. Over the year, sales and professionals had the leading influence, followed by labourers and machinery operators and drivers. MINISTRY OF BUSINESS, INNOVATION & EMPLOYMENT 12 Jobs Online: June 2018