RESEARCH BRIEF OIR No. 71-10 Office of Institutional Research, Planning, and Assessment September 2010 Employment Projections for Northern Virginia: Automotive Technology This brief presents data describing the occupational outlook in the Northern Virginia region for employment fields related to automotive technology. The Northern Virginia region includes the counties of Arlington, Fairfax, Loudoun, and Prince William, and the cities of Alexandria, Fairfax, Falls Church, Manassas, and Manassas Park. The data was provided by Economic Modeling Specialists Inc. (EMSI) 1. Table 1 summarizes the projected job growth in the Northern Virginia region from 2010 to 2015 for the following occupations: electrical and electronics installers and repairers, transportation equipment; electronic equipment installers and repairers, motor vehicles; and automotive service technicians and mechanics. The table also presents the current median hourly earnings and number of annual openings 2 for those occupations. Table 1: Summary of Projected Regional Job Growth: 2010 to 2015 Automotive Technology 2010 3 2015 Total Change Total % Change Current Median Hourly Earnings Annual Openings 2 5,479 5,814 335 6% $22.72 178 The total projected five-year job growth in the region for the featured occupations is 335 jobs, an increase of 6%. 1 EMSI compiles economic data from a variety of federal and state sources including: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Education, and the Virginia Employment Commission, Economic Information Services. 2 Annual openings are defined as the sum of new jobs and estimated replacement jobs for a given occupation, divided by the number of years in the timeframe. 3 are defined as full-time and part-time positions held by proprietors and payroll employees in the public or private sector. Number may exceed actual worker count. 1
Figure 1 and Table 2 display the projected job growth and annual openings by occupation for employees in the Northern Virginia region from 2010 to 2015. Table 2 also shows the current earnings and required education level for each occupation. Figure 1: Current, Projected, and Annual Openings by Program Occupation Table 2: Projected Job Growth, Openings, Earnings, and Required Education by Occupation Description Automotive service technicians and mechanics 2010 2015 Annual Openings Current Hourly Earnings 5,329 5,657 173 $22.75 Electronic equipment installers and repairers, motor vehicles 82 82 2 $15.30 Electrical and electronics installers and repairers, 68 75 3 $29.00 transportation equipment Total 5,479 5,814 178 $22.72 Education Level The number of jobs in the region for automotive service technicians and mechanics and electrical and electronics installers and repairers for transportation equipment is expected to increase in the next 5 years. For electronic equipment installers and repairers of motor vehicles, the number of jobs is not expected to increase. The current hourly earnings are highest for electrical and electronics installers and repairers, transportation equipment ($29). All occupations require a post-secondary. 2
Table 3 displays the number of graduates from Northern Virginia Community College (NOVA) who received an associate degree in automotive technology in 2008-2009. Table 3: Number of Program Graduates from NOVA: 2008-2009 Degree NOVA Graduates Automotive Technology, A.A.S. 18 In 2008-2009, 18 NOVA graduates received an A.A.S. degree in automotive technology. Figure 2 depicts the concentration in Northern Virginia of the occupations highlighted in this brief: electrical and electronics installers and repairers, transportation equipment; electronic equipment installers and repairers, motor vehicles; and automotive service technicians and mechanics. Table 4 presents the number of jobs by locality. Figure 2: Map of Number of Program Occupation in Northern Virginia 3
Table 4: Number of Program Occupation by Locality County/City 2010 Fairfax County, VA 2,244 Prince William County, VA 925 Loudoun County, VA 845 Alexandria City, VA 443 Arlington County, VA 398 Fairfax City, VA 239 Manassas City, VA 222 Falls Church City, VA 116 Manassas Park City, VA 48 In 2010, the most program occupation jobs in the region were located in Fairfax County (2,244). Figure 3 and Table 5 compare the annual job growth for each program occupation by geographic area. Figure 3: Comparison of Annual Job Growth by Occupation and Geographic Area 4
Table 5: Comparison of Annual Job Growth by Occupation and Geographic Area Description Electrical and electronics installers and repairers, transportation equipment Automotive service technicians and mechanics Electronic equipment installers and repairers, motor vehicles State National Regional Change Change Change # % % % 7 10% 2% 3% 328 6% 5% 4% 0 0% 1% 2% The occupation of electrical and electronics installer and repairer for transportation equipment is growing at the fastest rate regionally (10%). The occupations of electrical and electronics installer and repairer for transportation equipment and automotive service technician and mechanic have higher annual growth rates in the Northern Virginia region compared to the annual growth rates for the state or the country. 5