SEPTEMBER 2018 Analysis of the FY 2019 Defense Budget AUTHORS Todd Harrison Seamus P. Daniels A Report of the CSIS INTERNATIONAL SECURITY PROJECT S DEFENSE OUTLOOK SERIES
Analysis of the FY 2019 Defense Budget
About CSIS
Contents 1 Overview of Defense-Related Funding... 1 Total Defense-Related Funding in the Request... 1 Five-Year DoD Budget Projection... 3 OCO and Emergency Supplemental Funding... 5 Historical Perspectives... 7 2 Trends in the DoD Budget...10 Getting Less for More...10 Military and Civilian Personnel...12 Operation and Maintenance...15 Acquisitions...19 3 Major Acquisition Programs...25 Aircraft...25 Shipbuilding...31 Air and Missile Defense...33 Missiles and Munitions...35 Space...38 Ground Systems...39 Communications and Electronics...42 4 Trends in Force Structure and Funding by Service...43 Army...44 Navy...45 Air Force...47 5 Conclusion...49 About the Authors...52 ANALYSIS OF THE FY 2019 DEFENSE BUDGET III
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1 Overview of Defense-Related Funding Total Defense-Related Funding in the Request ANALYSIS OF THE FY 2019 DEFENSE BUDGET 1
Table 1: Summary of Defense-Related Funding in the FY 2019 Request 2 TODD HARRISON AND SEAMUS P. DANIELS
Five-Year DoD Budget Projection ANALYSIS OF THE FY 2019 DEFENSE BUDGET 3
Figure 1: DoD's FYDP Projections vs. Actuals 4 TODD HARRISON AND SEAMUS P. DANIELS
Figure 2: DoD FYDP Projections from FY 1980 to FY 2019 OCO and Emergency Supplemental Funding ANALYSIS OF THE FY 2019 DEFENSE BUDGET 5
Figure 3: Funding Designated for Afghanistan vs. Troop Levels 6 TODD HARRISON AND SEAMUS P. DANIELS
Historical Perspectives ANALYSIS OF THE FY 2019 DEFENSE BUDGET 7
Figure 4: National Defense Outlays as a Percentage of GDP and Total Federal Outlays 8 TODD HARRISON AND SEAMUS P. DANIELS
Figure 5: National Defense Outlays Adjusted for Inflation ANALYSIS OF THE FY 2019 DEFENSE BUDGET 9
2 Trends in the DoD Budget Getting Less for More Figure 6: Trends in the DoD Budget, Active End Strength, and Civilian FTEs 10 TODD HARRISON AND SEAMUS P. DANIELS
Figure 7: Increases in Budget and Active End Strength ANALYSIS OF THE FY 2019 DEFENSE BUDGET 11
Military and Civilian Personnel Figure 8: Growth in Compensation Costs 12 TODD HARRISON AND SEAMUS P. DANIELS
Figure 9: Military and Civilian Pay Raises ANALYSIS OF THE FY 2019 DEFENSE BUDGET 13
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Operation and Maintenance ANALYSIS OF THE FY 2019 DEFENSE BUDGET 15
Figure 10: O&M Budget Authority per Active Service Member Figure 11: DoD O&M Budget in the FY 2019 Request by Activity 16 TODD HARRISON AND SEAMUS P. DANIELS
Figure 12: Increases in O&M Operating Forces Costs, FY 2000 to FY 2019 ANALYSIS OF THE FY 2019 DEFENSE BUDGET 17
Figure 13: DoD Petroleum Consumption and Spending 18 TODD HARRISON AND SEAMUS P. DANIELS
Figure 14: Cost of PME by Course Type and Service Acquisitions ANALYSIS OF THE FY 2019 DEFENSE BUDGET 19
Figure 15: Acquisition Funding Figure 16: Aircraft Procurement Funding 20 TODD HARRISON AND SEAMUS P. DANIELS
Figure 17: Missiles and Munitions Procurement Funding ANALYSIS OF THE FY 2019 DEFENSE BUDGET 21
Figure 18: Classified Procurement Funding Figure 19: Space Procurement Funding 22 TODD HARRISON AND SEAMUS P. DANIELS
Figure 20: RDT&E Funding by Budget Activity ANALYSIS OF THE FY 2019 DEFENSE BUDGET 23
Figure 21: Requested versus Final Unclassified S&T Funding 24 TODD HARRISON AND SEAMUS P. DANIELS
3 Major Acquisition Programs Aircraft ANALYSIS OF THE FY 2019 DEFENSE BUDGET 25
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ANALYSIS OF THE FY 2019 DEFENSE BUDGET 27
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ANALYSIS OF THE FY 2019 DEFENSE BUDGET 29
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Shipbuilding ANALYSIS OF THE FY 2019 DEFENSE BUDGET 31
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Air and Missile Defense ANALYSIS OF THE FY 2019 DEFENSE BUDGET 33
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Missiles and Munitions ANALYSIS OF THE FY 2019 DEFENSE BUDGET 35
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ANALYSIS OF THE FY 2019 DEFENSE BUDGET 37
Space 38 TODD HARRISON AND SEAMUS P. DANIELS
ANALYSIS OF THE FY 2019 DEFENSE BUDGET 39
Ground Systems 40 TODD HARRISON AND SEAMUS P. DANIELS
ANALYSIS OF THE FY 2019 DEFENSE BUDGET 41
Communications and Electronics 42 TODD HARRISON AND SEAMUS P. DANIELS
4 Trends in Force Structure and Funding by Service Figure 22: Service Shares of the Total DoD Budget ANALYSIS OF THE FY 2019 DEFENSE BUDGET 43
Figure 23: Percentage Change in Service Base Budgets from FY 2017 Level Army 44 TODD HARRISON AND SEAMUS P. DANIELS
Figure 24: Army End Strength and Budget Navy ANALYSIS OF THE FY 2019 DEFENSE BUDGET 45
Figure 25: Navy Active Force Ships and Budget 42. 46 TODD HARRISON AND SEAMUS P. DANIELS
Air Force ANALYSIS OF THE FY 2019 DEFENSE BUDGET 47
Figure 26: Air Force Total Aircraft Inventory and Budget 48 TODD HARRISON AND SEAMUS P. DANIELS
5 Conclusion ANALYSIS OF THE FY 2019 DEFENSE BUDGET 49
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ANALYSIS OF THE FY 2019 DEFENSE BUDGET 51
About the Authors 52 TODD HARRISON AND SEAMUS P. DANIELS
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