XII. FINANCIAL CONSTRAINT

XII. FINANCIAL CONSTRAINT Since the passage of the Intermodal Surface Transportation Equity Act in 1991, Federal Transportation Planning Regulations have required that the Regional Transportation Plan be a financially constrained document. This means that the total costs of projects and services shown in the region s Plan over a given time period may not exceed the amount of funding that can reasonably be expected to be available for that same period. This regulation has been in place to ensure that the projects identified in the document reflect the region s transportation priorities and needs and that it not become a wish list that provides little or no direction or guidance in improving the transportation network. Forecasting the amount of federal and state funding that can reasonably be expected to be available over a twenty-five year planning horizon is difficult at best. Changes in administration at the state and federal levels, new federal transportation legislation, changes in the Central Artery Financing Plan, new state transportation bond bills and any funding changes that might be implemented based on the recommendations made by the Transportation Finance Commission are just a few of the factors that can and will influence transportation spending nationally and at the state level. To ensure that the financial assumptions on funding availability made by the individual MPOs are consistent and fiscally constrained, the Executive Office of Transportation has prepared estimates of the amount of transit and highway funding that are expected to be available in Massachusetts for the period from FFY 2007 to FFY 2030. These estimates include funds from state and federal funding sources. Using these estimated statewide funding amounts, EOT then derived estimates the amount of state and federal funding that each MPO can expect to receive during this same period. These estimates are presented below along with a description of the assumptions that have been made in deriving them. Highway and Bridge Projects Financial Plan Of all the factors that influence the amount of transportation funding expected be available in the Commonwealth in the coming years, federal transportation funding authorization legislation is the most important. SAFETEA-LU, the current federal transportation authorization bill, was signed into law in August 2005 and contains funding for virtually all modes of transportation in the nation for four federal fiscal years beginning in FFY 2006 and ending in FFY 2009 (September 30, 2009). Congress will begin work on developing the next federal transportation funding legislation, with new funding authorization levels and perhaps even new program categories. Such legislation typically covers 4-6 federal fiscal years Expected Statewide Funding Amounts for Highway and Bridge Projects Table XII-1 below shows the amount of state and federal highway funding expected to be available to Massachusetts for federal fiscal years 2007-2030. Funding amounts shown for the years 2007-2010 are based on the funding authorization amounts that are included in MVMPO 2007 Draft Regional Transportation Plan February 27, 2007 XII-1

Table XII - 1 FFY 2007-2030 Massachusetts Transportation Plan Funding Estimates (In Thousands of Dollars) ESTIMATED FEDERAL FUNDING 2007-2010 2011-2015 2016-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030 TOTAL Core Program Federal Funds Available (1) $2,064,486 $2,878,908 $3,317,534 $3,826,022 $4,415,498 $16,502,447 Federal Funds Available from HPP $212,816 $232,746 $269,817 $312,792 $362,611 $1,390,783 Total Federal Funds Available $2,277,302 $3,111,654 $3,587,351 $4,138,813 $4,778,110 $17,893,230 Less CA/T GANS Paymemts $505,605 $685,675 $0 $0 $0 $1,191,280 Federal Funds Available for SWRB $1,558,881 $2,425,979 $3,587,351 $4,138,813 $4,778,110 $16,489,134 Total Funds Available Including State Match $1,921,445 $2,987,722 $4,419,631 $5,098,677 $5,885,877 $20,313,352 Less Statewide Items: Planning $75,000 $106,796 $142,179 $164,824 $191,076 $679,875 Extra Work Orders $175,000 $242,525 $295,294 $342,327 $396,851 $1,451,996 Total Statewide Items $250,000 $349,321 $437,473 $507,151 $587,927 $2,131,871 TOTAL FEDERAL PROGRAM FOR RTP ALLOCATION $1,671,445 $2,638,401 $3,982,158 # $4,591,526 $5,297,950 $18,181,480 Assumed Major Infrastructure Project Needs $225,222 $375,719 $522,917 $606,204 $702,756 $2,432,818 Assumed Major Infrastructure Project Needs - HPP $145,467 $168,636 $195,495 $226,632 $736,229 Assumed Interstate Maintenance Program Needs $217,250 $358,013 $516,461 $598,720 $694,080 $2,384,524 Assumed Federal Aid Bridge Needs $520,432 $718,872 $956,972 $1,109,393 $1,286,090 $4,591,758 Assumed Statewide Infrastructure Maintenance Needs $100,000 $167,274 $207,800 $240,897 $279,265 $995,236 Assumed Regional Operating and Maintenance Needs $608,541 $873,057 $1,609,373 $1,840,818 $2,109,126 $7,040,916 ESTIMATED NON-FEDERAL FUNDING TOTAL NFA PROGRAM FOR ALLOCATING IN THE RTP $600,000 $820,261 $950,908 $1,102,363 $1,277,941 $4,751,473 Assumed Road Needs $320,000 $437,473 $507,151 $587,927 $681,568 $2,534,119 Assumed Bridge Needs $280,000 $382,789 $443,757 # $514,436 $596,372 $2,217,354 TOTAL FUNDS AVAILABLE FOR ALLOCATING IN THE RTP $2,271,445 $3,458,663 $4,933,066 $5,693,889 $6,575,891 $22,932,953 Notes: (1) Core Program Federal Funds Avail. Assumes a 3% per year increase after 2010 and Includes Estimated Redistribution at $25M per Year (2) The above figures do not include Local Aid ( Chapter 90, PWED & STRAP ) MVMPO 2007 Draft Regional Transportation Plan February 27, 2007 XII-2

SAFETEA-LU and as shown in the FY 2007-2010 State Transportation Improvement Program (STIP). The following assumptions have been made by EOT in developing the funding levels showed above in Table XII-1: Federal and state matching funding (core programs plus High Priority Project amounts) for the period 2007-2010 reflect current allocations. These amounts are inflated at a rate of 3% per year beginning in 2011 until 2030. All figures are based upon the assumed obligation amount of 85%. While SAFETEA- LU authorizes the expenditure of larger amount, Congress has sought to manage transportation spending through the appropriations process by limiting the amount of funding that may be obligated in any given year. Assumes that $25 million in redistributed obligation authority will be available to Massachusetts from 2007-2030. These are federal highway funds that have not been obligated by other states, which then become available for use by those states that can obligate the funds. Certain statewide or non-construction items, such as Central Artery GANs repayments, Extra Work Order payments and expenditures for planning, have been removed from the total amount of funding available for the Statewide Road and Bridge Program. Grant Anticipation Notes (GANs) are bonds that were issued by the state to provide funding for the Central Artery project during its peak spending years. GANs are based on the promise of repayment from future income streams, which in the case of the Central Artery project, will come from future federal highway funding allocations received by Massachusetts. These amounts are shown in Table XII-1 and will end in 2014. The amount of federal aid funding that will be available for the statewide road and bridge program will increase markedly thereafter. Funding availability for bridges is based upon the Commonwealth s commitment to a Statewide Bridge Program of $200 million per year. The bridge program has both a federal and state component. Funding for both components is anticipated to grow by 3% per year over current STIP levels beginning in 2011. Major Infrastructure Projects are those whose anticipated cost is far in excess of a region s ability to pay for it using its highway funding target. Typically, if a project is expected to cost more than twice the amount contained in the target, it is considered eligible to be defined as a Major Infrastructure Project. When the GANs are paid off, the amount of National Highway System (NHS) funding available to the state each year is assumed to be devoted to such projects. Similarly, Interstate Maintenance funding amounts received each year by the state from 2015-2030 will be used for projects on the interstate system. The Non-Federal Aid Program is based upon the existing road and bridge program shown in the STIP for FY 2007-2010. These amounts are increased 3% per year beginning in 2011 until 2030. MVMPO 2007 Draft Regional Transportation Plan February 27, 2007 XII-3

Expected Statewide Funding Amounts for Highway and Bridge Projects Table XII-2 shows the amount of funding expected to be available to the Merrimack Valley MPO during the period. EOT has provided recommendations as to of how much funding should be devoted to Major Infrastructure Projects, Bridge Projects, Interstate Maintenance Projects and for Operating and Maintenance projects on the remainder of the region s federalaid roadway network. These figures are based on the following parameters: State Bridge funds are allocated to Merrimack Valley based on the region s share of the total number of federal aid eligible bridges in the state. The region contains approximately 4.5% of such bridges in the Commonwealth; Interstate Maintenance funding is allocated to the region based on its share of the total interstate system lane mileage in Massachusetts. It is interesting to note that despite its relatively small size, the MVPC region contains over 14.5% of the Interstate roadway lane miles in the Commonwealth; Major Infrastructure project funding as well as Operating, Maintenance and Improvement funding on the remainder of the federal-aid network area allocated to the region based on the formula developed by EOT and the Massachusetts Association of Regional Agencies that has been used in recent years to determine each region s roadway and bridge targets. Under this formula, MVPC received about 4.3% of the funds that are available for the statewide road and bridge program. Table XII-2 shows that the region can expect to receive $1.129 billion in roadway and bridge funding from 2007-2030. Based on the assumptions outlined above, EOT recommends that the largest proportion of that funding, a minimum of $422,656,000 or 37.4% of the total amount of funding expected to be available, be programmed for Operating, Maintenance and Improvement projects on the region s federal-aid highway network. Just over 51% of funding is recommended to be used for Interstate Maintenance and Bridge projects, and 11.54% is proposed for use on Major Infrastructure projects. It should be noted that EOT s recommendation in this latter category is that a maximum of 11.54% of the region s anticipated highway and bridge funding be allocated. The other recommendations, including those for Interstate Maintenance projects and Bridge projects, are minimum amounts. There are two important things consider in understanding Table XII 2. First, it should be emphasized that the amounts shown in various funding categories described above are indeed, as noted, recommendations. These amounts can be and likely will be changed by the MPO s based on the region s anticipated roadway and bridge needs. However, it must also be noted that while the relative proportion of funding devoted to these project types may be changed by the MPO, the overall $1,129,591,000 funding amount expected to be available to the region must remain the same. This must be done to ensure that the statewide road and bridge program is fiscally constrained. MVMPO 2007 Draft Regional Transportation Plan February 27, 2007 XII-4

Table XII - 2 FFY 2007-2030 Merrimack Valley MPO Transportation Plan Funding Estimates (In Thousands of Dollars) 2007-2010 2011-2015 2016-2020 2021-20252026 - 2030 TOTAL Total Available for Programming in the RTP $188,636 $269,594 $311,430 $359,931 $1,129,591 Recommended Maximum for Major Infrastructure Refer $23,086 $30,633 $35,512 $41,168 $130,399 Projects to the Recommended Minimum for Bridge Projects STIP $49,002 $62,305 $72,228 $83,732 $267,267 Recommended Minimum for IM Projects $51,088 $73,699 $85,437 $99,045 $309,269 Recommended Minimum for Operating, Maintaining and Improving the Highway-Funded Transportation System $65,460 $102,957 $118,253 $135,986 $422,656 Projected Demand for Highway and Bridge Funding MVPC staff reviewed the status of all roadway and bridge projects that are included in this document and that have costs associated with them. Cost estimates for MHD-approved projects were updated. Older cost estimates for proposed projects were adjusted them upward at 4% per year to 2006. Projects were then placed in one of the four five-year time frames covered in the Plan (i.e. 2011-2015, 2016-2020, etc.). Estimated costs for the projects, in 2006 dollars, were adjusted upward at 4% until the mid-point of the appropriate five-year period. Projects were assigned to time periods based upon a number of factors including current project status, scope, and the possible relationship of the project to other planned or proposed projects. These costs were then summed to determine the total demand for roadway and bridge project funding considered in the 2007 Plan. Table XII-3 on the following pages lists all the roadway and bridge projects that have estimated construction costs appearing in the 2007 Plan along with their cost (in 2006 dollars). MVMPO 2007 Draft Regional Transportation Plan February 27, 2007 XII-5

Table XII - 3 List of Roadway and Bridge Projects with Estimated Construction Cost Estimated Cost Municipality Facility (in 2006 dollars) Amesbury Powwow Riverwalk and Bikeway (Phase I) $1,946,880 Amesbury Bridge (A-07-008) Oak Street over Boston & Maine RR $1,082,607 Ames./Nwbprt. Bridge (A-07-016= N-11-017) I-95 over Merrimack River $132,000,000 Amesbury Bridge (A-07-023) I-495 SB over Route 150 $1,412,153 Amesbury Elm St from High St to Monroe St $7,874,048 Amesbury Replace Bridge (A-07-026) I-495 over Powwow Riverwalk $3,141,150 Amesbury Pond Street Bridge $1,480,244 Amesbury Replace R Street Bridge (A-07-015) over Powwow River $1,600,570 Amesbury Route 110 (I-495 to Merrill St) $2,450,000 Amesbury Route 150 (Route 110 to Main Street) $1,130,000 Amesbury Replace Bridge (A-07-070) Main Street over Merrimack River $8,400,000 Amesbury Resurface Rte. 110 from Merrimac Line to Rte. 150 $1,200,000 Andover Bridge (A-09-011) Route 28 over MBTA RR $2,664,440 Andover Burtt Road PWED $5,000,000 Andover Essex St/Lupine Rd $1,776,293 Andover I-93: Install Sound Barrier NB from Dascomb Road $4,000,000 Andover Essex Street RR Crossing $266,444 Andover I-93: Add Travel lane in each direction (Phase II) $31,586,181 Andover I-93: Add Travel lane in each direction (Phase I) $31,586,181 Andover Rt. 28 from Rt. 133 (Shawsheen Square) to I-495 $3,552,586 Andover Bridge (A-09-038) Route 28 over Route 125 $355,259 Andover Route 125 intersection with Salem Street $1,563,840 Andover Pedestrian Bridge over Shawsheen River $432,640 Andover Elimination of SB On Ramp at Rte. 133/I-93 $257,369 Andover Expansion of Dascomb Road Park and Ride Lot $500,000 Andover Implement Dascomb Road PWED Improvements $848,513 Andover Design/Construct Interchange off I-93 at Lowell Junction $30,284,800 Boxford Reconstruction of Route 97 $3,785,600 Boxford Reconstruction of Route 133 $4,624,922 Georgetown Route 133 (Chestnut Street to Carlton Drive) $1,751,980 Georgetown Rt. 97 (Central Street) from # 80 to Boxford TL $2,189,975 Georgetown Construction of Park & Ride Lot near Rte. 133/I-95 $3,275,000 Groveland Bridge (G-15-001) Bates Bridge over Merrimack $45,000,000 Haverhill Bridge (H-12-023) North Avenue over Snows Brook $809,869 Haverhill Bridge (H-12-005) Ferry Road over MBTA $2,610,000 Haverhill Concord/Kenoza Ave $281,816 Haverhill Hilldale Ave. (Upper) $985,370 Haverhill Implement Recommendations of NECCO Access Study $750,000 Haverhill Main St. and River Road Intersection Improvements $1,231,712 Haverhill Mill St/Boardman St $270,977 Haverhill Moulton Way $821,141 Haverhill North St at Concord St $270,977 Haverhill River St (Rt. 110/113) View St to Niagra St $394,148 Haverhill River St. at Bradley Ave $270,977 Haverhill Rocks Village Enhancements $275,588 Haverhill Rt. 97 (Broadway)/North Broadway $821,141 Haverhill Rt. 125 (Knipe Rd) $216,781 Haverhill Rt. 125 (Main St) $2,185,790 Haverhill Rt. 125/North Ave/14th/Lawrence St $500,896 Haverhill Rt. 97 at Primrose St $821,141 Haverhill/WN Bridge (H-12-020) Rocks Village Bridge over Merrimack $4,500,000 Haverhill South Main Street $9,358,868 Haverhill Rehabillitate Bridge (H-12-025) Rte. 125 over B&MRR $410,300 Haverhill Merrimack Riverwalk (Phase II) $4,603,832 Haverhill Signalization of Rte. 125 and Farrwood Drive $177,629 Haverhill Construction of Phases A and B of Riverwalk $1,200,000 Haverhill Resurfacing of Route 110 from Methuen to I-495 $900,000 Haverhill Ressurfacing of Route 110 from I-495 to Maxwell St. $500,000 Haverhill Const. of Intermodal Parking Facility in Downtown $3,000,000 Lawrence I-495/Marston Street Interchange Improvements $41,296,164 Lawrence Bridge (L-04-001) Rt. 28 Broadway over Merrimack River $6,200,000 MVMPO 2007 Draft Regional Transportation Plan February 27, 2007 XII-6

Table XII - 3 List of Roadway and Bridge Projects with Estimated Construction Cost Estimated Cost Municipality Facility (in 2006 dollars) Lawrence Bridge (L-04-003) Union Street over Merrimack $8,011,780 Lawrence Bridge (L-04-005) Amesbury Street over North Canal $2,382,042 Lawrence Bridge (L-04-047) Access Road over North Canal $815,908 Lawrence Bridge (L-04-007) Broadway over Spickett River $3,264,215 Lawrence Bridge (L-04-024) Salem Street over MBTA RR $2,000,000 Lawrence Water Street Promenade $408,436 Lawrence Canal Street Underground Utilities $1,172,353 Lawrence Canal Street Reconstruction $1,023,448 Lawrence Bridge (L-4-17) Canal Street over Spickett River $12,050,690 Lawrence Canal\Water St (from Riverside Dr to Lawrence St) $3,188,604 Lawrence Merrimack Street (Parker St to South Union St) $1,518,383 Lawrence Pedestrian Walkway along Merrimack River $1,161,563 Lawrence Route 114 (N. Andover line to I-495) $3,000,000 Lawrence Rt. 28 (South Broadway) First.08 miles from Andover TL $216,781 Lawrence Reconstuct Intersection of Canal St. and Union St. $2,114,950 Lawrence Rehabillitate E. Haverhill St. Bridge over Spicket River $3,217,111 Lawrence Gateway Project Access Improvements $2,704,000 Lawrence Construction of Railroad Siding new Industrial Park $400,000 Lawrence Bridge Hampshire Street over the Spickett River $800,000 Lawrence Bridge Lowell Street over the B&M Railroad $4,500,000 Merrimac Merrimac Square $1,500,000 Merrimac Resurfacing of Route 110 from Broad St. to Amesbury $700,000 Methuen Resurface Rte 113 from Rotary to Dracut Line $800,000 Methuen Bridge (M-17-022) Broadway over Route 213 $8,632,880 Methuen Bridge (M-17-032) Merrimack Street over I-495 $2,134,968 Methuen Pedestrian Walkway along Merrimack River $1,116,752 Methuen Long Term Improvements to Route 110/113 Rotary $29,246,464 Methuen Short Term Improvements to Route 110/113 Rotary (SAFETEA-LU) $600,000 Methuen Rt. 28 (Searles) Bridge over Spickett River $1,642,283 Methuen Rt. 28 (Nevins) Bridge over Spickett River $1,642,283 Methuen Eliminate Weave at I-93/Route 213 $8,189,010 Methuen Add travel lanes to I-93 $63,172,362 Newburyport Rail to Trail Project Construction $3,468,570 Newburyport Bridge (N-11-014) High Street over US Route 1 $607,645 Newburyport Hale Street $3,065,965 Newburyport I-95 Access To/From Industrial Park $5,769,855 Newburyport Parker Street $2,277,574 Newburyport. Rt. 1 at State St near new courthouse $1,518,383 Newburyport Expansion of Storey Avenue Park and Ride Lot $1,125,000 North Andover Osgood St. at Mass. Ave. $607,353 North Andover Rt. 125 (Andover St) $202,965 North Andover Sutton Street $2,463,424 North Andover Route 125 Resurfacing $821,141 North Andover Reconstruct & Add Sidewalks to Mass Avenue $2,657,170 North Andover Machine Shop Village Streetscape Improvements $4,191,308 Rowley Route 133 East of Route 1 $3,188,604 Salisbury Route 1 Reconstruction from Square north to State Line $4,269,935 Salisbury RR ROW: Salisbury Rail Trail $2,000,000 Salisbury Resurface Merrill Road $400,000 West Newbury Ash Street $1,822,059 Sals. To Danvers Border to Boston Bike Path Design and Construction $10,000,000 Ames/Hav/Sal/Mer. Pavement Rehabilitation on Route I-495 $10,000,000 Law/N.And/Meth Pavement Rehabilitation on Route I-495 $7,500,000 Law/Hav Pavement Rehabilitation on Route I-495 $8,800,000 Andover-Law Pavement Rehabilitation $9,100,000 I - 95 Pavement Rehabilitation on Route 95 $11,356,800 I-93 Pavement Rehabilitation on I-93 $11,525,347 Regionwide Other Bridge Projects $38,682,187 Regionwide Other Operation and Maintenance Projects $35,676,397 MVMPO 2007 Draft Regional Transportation Plan February 27, 2007 XII-7

Tables XII-4 through XII-7 below and on the following page show the results of the comparison of the overall funding amounts expected to be available for the major project categories in the road and bridge program i.e., Major Infrastructure Projects, Interstate Maintenance Project, Bridge Projects and Operation / Maintenance Projects - in the Merrimack Valley region as well as the estimated cost of those projects appearing in the Plan given the funding and cost assumptions described earlier. Table XII-8 shows that the Merrimack Valley region will have sufficient funding to available to implement all MHD-approved projects as well as those project proposals that have been developed to the point that cost estimates are available. However, Tables XII-4 through XII-7 show that the 2007 Plan does propose using more Major Infrastructure and Bridge funding than is recommended by EOT, while spending less on Interstate Maintenance and Operations / Maintenance projects. Table XII - 4 Major Infrastructure Projects Expected Costs 2011-2015 2016-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030 TOTAL Identified Needs $53,017,990 $107,395,025 $63,053,476 $95,780,816 $319,247,307 Amount Assumed to Be Available $130,399,000 Needs Compared to Amount Available $188,848,307 Table XII - 5 Bridges Expected Costs 2011-2015 2016-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030 TOTAL Identified Needs $44,901,253 $55,112,621 $186,289,820 $171,576,411 $457,880,104 Amount Assumed to Be Available $267,267,000 Needs Compared to Amount Available $190,613,104 MVMPO 2007 Draft Regional Transportation Plan February 27, 2007 XII-8

Table XII - 6 Interstate Maintenance Expected Costs 2011-2015 2016-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030 TOTAL Identified Needs $16,843,927 $45,029,587 $38,162,937 $0 $100,036,451 Amount Assumed to Be Available $309,269,000 Needs Compared to Amount Available -$209,232,549 Table XII - 7 Operations and Maintenance Expected Costs 2011-2015 2016-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030 TOTAL Identified Needs $73,843,957 $62,377,822 $29,439,369 $86,579,716 $252,240,865 Amount Assumed to Be Available $422,656,000 Needs Compared to Amount Available -$170,415,135 Table XII - 8 Road and Bridge - All Categories Expected Costs 2011-2015 2016-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030 TOTAL Identified Needs $188,607,127 $269,915,055 $316,945,601 $353,936,943 $1,129,404,726 Amount Assumed to Be Available $1,129,591,000 Needs Compared to Amount Available -$186,274 Major Infrastructure Projects Table XII-9 shows a listing of the Major Infrastructure Projects anticipated to be undertaken in the Merrimack Valley region during the period. Included is the 2006 estimate of the cost of the improvement as well as the projected cost in the year of anticipated construction. MVMPO 2007 Draft Regional Transportation Plan February 27, 2007 XII-9

Table XII-9 Major Infrastructure Projects Estimated 2006 Municipality Facility Cost 2011-2015 2016-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030 Total Andover I-93: Add Travel lane in each direction (Phase II) $31,586,181 $50,570,494 $50,570,494 Andover I-93: Add Travel lane in each direction (Phase I) $31,586,181 $41,565,260 $41,565,260 Andover Design/Construct Interchange off I-93 at Lowell Junction* $30,284,800 $10,852,731 $10,000,000 $20,852,731 Newburyport I-95 Access To/From Industrial Park $5,769,855 $14,789,893 $14,789,893 Methuen Long Term Improvements to Route 110/113 Rotary $29,246,464 $46,824,531 $46,824,531 Methuen Short Term Improvements to Route 110/113 Rotary $600,000 $600,000 $600,000 Methuen Eliminate Weave at I-93/Route 213 $8,189,010 $20,990,923 $20,990,923 Methuen Add travel lanes to I-93 $63,172,362 $63,053,476 $60,000,000 $123,053,476 TOTAL $200,434,853 $53,017,990 $107,395,025 $63,053,476 $95,780,816 $319,247,307 * Includes funding under the MORE Program and SAFETEA-LU Earmark Funds It should be noted that some of the larger projects appearing in the plan could be funded under more than one funding category. For example the Route I-95 Bridge over the Merrimack River has been classified as a bridge project, but is located on the Interstate System and is of sufficient cost to be defined as either an Interstate Maintenance or a Major Infrastructure project. Redefining one or more of these major projects in the region would make a significant difference in the distribution of funding between project categories. Many of these projects are described in more detail below Key Projects Route I-95 Bridge over the Merrimack River: This project is currently (in 2006) estimated to cost $132 million dollars. It calls for the replacement of the existing, aging truss structure with a bridge that would carry four travel lanes in each direction thereby eliminating a potential choke point on I-95 as the roadway currently carries four lanes of traffic in either direction north and south of this structure. This restriction has typically not been a problem as traffic volumes on I-95 at this location can be accommodated by three travel lanes in each direction. Lowell Junction Interchange: This project would provide improved access to the Lowell Junction employment center in Andover and Wilmington from I-93 and open up additional land for commercial and potential mixed use development in Tewksbury. An Interchange Justification Study for the project was prepared by the Merrimack Valley MPO in 2006 and submitted to the Executive Office of Transportation, which then made a request to the Federal Highway Administration for a break in access on SAFETEA-LU Earmark Funds and state infrastructure funding under the MORE program are expected to be used on this project. Widening of Route I-93 in Andover and Methuen: One of the recommendations coming out of the Merrimack Valley MPO s Route I-93 Corridor Traffic Study in Andover and Methuen was that the roadway should be widened to accommodate four travel lanes and a breakdown lane for each direction of travel. The existing breakdown lanes on the roadway are used as a travel lane during peak periods. The widening of the roadway in the southern part of Andover, in the vicinity of the proposed location for the Lowell Junction Interchange was assumed to take place as the same time that the interchange would be built. Route 110/113 Rotary Improvements: The I-93 Corridor Study also examined serious traffic and safety issues at this busy rotary located at Exit 46. Seven possible improvement MVMPO 2007 Draft Regional Transportation Plan February 27, 2007 XII-10

alternatives were identified in that analysis. MassHighway is now conducting a study to identify a preferred improvement alternative at this location. Border to Boston Bike Trail: The 2007 Regional Transportation Plan includes many bicycle and pedestrian projects. The largest of these is the Border to Boston Bike Trail Phase I, which would extend from Danvers, MA north to the Salisbury, MA/Seabrook NH border. This trail would follow an abandoned right of way for most of its length but would also go on-road to avoid making costly crossings of Route I-95. MVMPO 2007 Draft Regional Transportation Plan February 27, 2007 XII-11

Projects Requiring Further Study Table XII-10 shows a listing of those projects included in the Plan that require further study. These are most often proposed projects that have not been defined or studied to the point where a costs estimate has been developed. In other instances, the preliminary design work or a feasibility study has been undertaken, but the results of those analyses are not yet known. Table XII - 10 Proposed Roadway and Bridge Projects Requiring Further Study Municipality Facility Project Type Andover I-93/River Rd Interchange Interchange Improvements Andover Bike Lanes on Route 28 / Route 125 / Route 133, (19.3 miles ) Bike lanes, 400k/mile Andover Shawsheen River Pedestrian Trail Bicycle/Pedestrian Trail Boxford Construction of Bicycle/Ped/Equestrian Trail along RR ROW Bicycle/Pedestrian Path Georgetown Bailey Lane Bridge Replacement Georgetown Construct Bicycle Path from Brook Street to Newbury TL Construct Bikeway Georgetown Parish Road Bridge Replacement Georgetown Summer Street Bridge Bridge Replacement Haverhill Implement Recommendations of NECCO Access Study Roadway Improvements Haverhill I-495/Route 97 Construct Additional Ramps Haverhill Lincoln St at Groveland St Intersection Improvements Haverhill Main St at Cushing Ave @ NH state line Intersection Improvements Haverhill Route 108/Route I-495 Interchange Construct Interchange Haverhill Route 97 (Broadway) Corridor Improvements Corridor Improvements Haverhill Rt. 125 from I-495 to New Hampshire Line Roadway Improvements Haverhill Construction of Bike/Ped Path along RR ROW in Bradford Bicycle/Pedestrian Path Lawrence Construct Bridge over North Canal from Canal St. to Island St. Bridge Construction Lawrence Roadway Improvements on Island Roadway Improvements Methuen Construct Access Road between Rts. 110 & 113 Roadway Improvements Newbury Stormwater Runoff Improvements along Route I-95 Roadway Construction Newbury Construction of Bike/Ped Path On Road and along RR ROW Bicycle/Pedestrian Path Newburyport Rt. 1A from Rt. 113 to Newbury town line Roadway Reconstruction Newburyport Improvements to Merrimac St./Moseley Ave/Spofford St. intersection Intersection Improvements Newburyport Improvements to Low Street/Storey Avenue Intersection Intersection Newburyport Construction of Bike Path along old City Branch RR Bicycle/Pedestrian Path North Andover Bike/Ped Trail on RR ROW (Sutton St to Middleton Town Line) Trail/Bikeway Construction North Andover Access From I-495 to Sutton St via Marblehead North Andover Clark St to Charles St to Sutton St Connector North Andover Route 114 (Bypass to Chestnut St) North Andover Sutton St to High St Connector Construct Access Construct Access Roadway Widening Construct Access North Andover Construct Industrial Area Access Road along B&M RR. Construct Access Salisbury Route 110/Route 1A from Amesbury Line to State Beach Road Roadway Widening Salisbury Route 1 Reconstruction from Square south to Newburyport Line Roadway Reconstruction West Newbury Development of Various Bike Paths Trail/Bikeway Construction West Newbury Route 113 Sidewalk Construction from Page School to H.S. Roadway Reconstruction Region Roadway and Interchange Improvements to Route I-495 Roadway Construction MVMPO 2007 Draft Regional Transportation Plan February 27, 2007 XII-12

Probably the most important of these is the Route I-495 Corridor Study now being conducted by the Massachusetts Highway Department. It is likely that this study will make recommendations for improvement projects throughout the study corridor, which extends from Westford, MA eastward to I-495 s intersection with I-95 in Salisbury. These projects will be added to the region s Transportation Plan in 2011. Regionally significant projects Under the Clean Air act Amendments of 1990, MPOs located in urbanized areas that are in violation of ambient air quality standards must certify that the projects and programs included in their Transportation Plan does not make air quality worse or slow down that region s progress in reaching attainment of those standards. A regionally significant project is defined as one that would create additional capacity on the region s roadway network. These projects have the potential to increase vehicle emissions and must be identified and analyzed as part of the air quality conformity determination process. Table XII-11 below identifies the Regionally Significant Projects appearing in the 2007 Regional Transportation Plan. Table XII - 11 Regionally Significant Projects Estimated Municipality Facility Implementation Ames./Nwbprt. Bridge (A-07-016= N-11-017) I-95 over Merrimack River 2026-2030 Amesbury Route 110 (I-495 to Merrill St) 2010 Andover Burtt Road PWED 2011-2015 Andover I-93: Add Travel lane in each direction (Phase II) 2016-2020 Andover I-93: Add Travel lane in each direction (Phase I) 2011-2015 Andover Design/Construct Interchange off I-93 at Lowell Junction 2011-2015 Methuen Add travel lanes to I-93 2016-2020 Four of the projects involve the widening of I-93 in Andover and Methuen and the construction of an interchange at Lowell Junction. The Burtt Road PWED project, while critical to the proposed plans to construct this interchange, was originally proposed to provide additional access to industrial land located between the Haverhill Commuter Rail Line and I- 93 in Andover/Wilmington. The remaining projects are the widening of the Route 95 Bridge over the Merrimack River, and the reconstruction of Route 110 in Amesbury between I-495 and I-95. The widening of the I-95 Bridge over the Merrimack would include the provision of an additional travel lane in each direction and thereby eliminate the existing three-lane constriction on the roadway in southern Amesbury/Salisbury and northern Newburyport. Current plans for the reconstruction of Route 110 in Amesbury call for the widening of the roadway to accommodate three or four travel lanes between the I-495 northbound off-ramp and the Elm Street/Clarkes Street intersection. This section of the roadway currently consists of one travel lane in each direction and is the site of frequent congestion during peak travel periods. MVMPO 2007 Draft Regional Transportation Plan February 27, 2007 XII-13

Transit Projects Financial Plan Similar to the Bridge and Highway Program, the Transit Element of the 2007 Regional Transportation Plan must also be fiscally constrained. The Merrimack Valley Regional Transit Authority (MVRTA) is the primary provider of transit services in the region. The MVRTA receives its funding from a number of sources and programs, both federal and from the state. Therefore, the Authority s anticipated funding needs for 2007-230 must be within the amounts of funding anticipated to be available in certain key state and federal transit funding programs. These major sources of funding are briefly described below: State Contract Assistance These are funds provided to the Regional Transit Authorities to pay for not less than 50 and not more than 75% of their the net operating deficits generated through the provision of their fixed route, and demand response services State Capital Assistance This state program provides the transit authorities with the matching funds for federal capital funds, for the most part provided under the Section 5307 program. Local Assessments These are funds that are assessed to MVRTA communities based on the amount of service that they receive. Fare and Other Revenue These are funds that generated through fares and from the MVRTA s advertising program, as well as other source Section 5307 Program Section 5307 is a formula grant program for urbanized areas providing capital, operating, and planning assistance for mass transportation. It is the FTA's primary transit assistance program. Funds are apportioned to urbanized areas utilizing a formula based on population, population density, and other factors associated with transit service and ridership. Until 2003, the MVRTA received Section 5307 Capital funding directly from FTA. Beginning in FY 2004, the MVRTA was included in Boston Urbanized Area, and funds were distributed through a funding formula agreed to by the regional transit authorities now included in the Boston Urbanized Area. Section 5310 Elderly and Disabled Transportation Section 5310 of the Federal Transit Act provides for capital assistance to private non-profit corporations and certain public agencies for the purchase of vehicles and related equipment to be used in the provision of transportation services to the elderly, persons with disabilities, and families transitioning from public assistance to employment for whom existing public and/or private mass transportation is unavailable, insufficient or inappropriate. Section 5316 Job Access/Reverse Commute (JARC) The Job Access and Reverse Commute grant program assists states and localities in developing new or expanded transportation services that connect welfare recipients and other low income persons to jobs and other employment related services. Job Access projects are MVMPO 2007 Draft Regional Transportation Plan February 27, 2007 XII-14

targeted at developing new or expanded transportation services such as shuttles, vanpools, new bus routes, connector services to mass transit, and guaranteed ride home programs for welfare recipients and low income persons. Reverse Commute projects provide transportation services to suburban employment centers from urban, rural and other suburban locations for all populations. Funds are distributed to states Section 5317 New Freedom The New Freedom program was developed by FTA to encourage services and facility improvements to address the transportation needs of persons with disabilities that go beyond those required by the Americans with Disabilities Act. Provides a new formula grant program for associated capital and operating costs. Funds allocated to the states through a formula based upon population of persons with disabilities. Charts XII-1 and XII-2 below shows the sources and amounts of the MVRTA revenue for operating expenses and capital projects in FY 2006. Chart VII-1 shows the operating revenues for the MVRTA in FY 2006. This not the same as the Net Cost of Service, which is defined as the difference between the costs incurred in operating its fixed route bus, commuter bus and demand response services, interest revenue, advertising as well as revenue from other sources. State Contract Assistance is limited to 75% of this Net Cost of Service or a figure that is three times the total amount of local assessment received by the Authority. In FY 2006, State Operating Assistance to the MVRTA did not approach either of these limits. However it should be noted that the Authority s FY 2007 budget does meet the limit that is three times the amount of local assessment. Chart XII-1 Merrimack Valley Regional Transit Authority Sources of Operating Revenue in FY 2006 State Contract Assistance 49% Section 5307 - Preventive Maintenance 10% Section 5307 - ADA 5% Local Assessment 20% Revenue 16% Chart XII-1 shows that the state provided the greatest share of funding for the Authority s operating budget. Local Assessments and Fare Revenue provided the next largest shares of funding. Chart VII-2 below indicates that the majority of the capital funds that became MVMPO 2007 Draft Regional Transportation Plan February 27, 2007 XII-15

available to the Authority in FY 2006 came from the federal government under the Section 5307 and Section 5309 programs, with matching funds Chart XII-2 Merrimack Valley Regional Transit Authority Sources of Capital Funding in FY 2006 Section 5309 Bus Earmark 17% SAFETEA-LU Earmark 24% Section 5307 - Capital 49% State Capital Assistance 10% As was the case for the Road and Bridge Program, EOT has provided the Merrimack Valley MPO and the other MPO s around the state with an estimate of the amount of state and federal transit funding that will be available to the Merrimack Valley Regional Transit Authority throughout the time period covered by this regional transportation plan. This information is shown in Table XII-12 below. The assumptions made by EOT in developing the funding amounts shown in Table XII-12 are as follows: FY 2007-2010 Section 5307 amounts are based on data provided by the Transit Authorities. Section 5307 amounts will be distributed in the Boston Urbanized Area based on the existing funding distribution formula Beginning in FY 2011, it is assumed that both Section 5307 funding and State Capital Assistance funds will increase by 3% annually through 2030. Section 5310 funding shown is based upon the Merrimack Valley region s share of the Elderly and Disabled population in the state. It should be noted that the funding amounts shown under the federal Section 5316 (JARC) and Section 5317 (New Freedom) programs are the statewide totals. The funding from these programs will be distributed to the various MPOs on a competitive basis. Each MPO must develop project proposals for submittal to the state for approval before these funds can be MVMPO 2007 Draft Regional Transportation Plan February 27, 2007 XII-16

accessed. As required in SAFETEA-LU, and projects under these projects must be developed based on a Coordinated Human Service Transportation Plan. The objective for this plan is to improve transportation services for persons with disabilities, older adults, and individuals with lower incomes by ensuring that communities coordinate transportation resources provided through multiple federal programs. The Merrimack Valley Planning Commission and Merrimack Valley Regional Transit Authority are now initiating such a study for the Merrimack Valley region. Financial Constraint In the following tables, the MVRTA s projected capital and operating expenditures for 2007-2030 will be compared to the anticipated levels of local, state and federal funding expected to be available for the same period. This comparison will determine if the transit section of the plan is financially constrained Transit Capital Funding Table XII-12 on the following page shows that the MVRTA is expected to have $169,083,606 in federal Section 5307 funding available for capital projects between 2007 and 2030. State assistance, in the form of State Capital Funds, is projected to be $44,106,485. However, these amounts include Section 5307 funding that can be used for Preventive Maintenance and ADA Transportation expenses. These amounts will be deducted from the capital funding analysis that follows and applied instead to the operational funding analysis. This table also shows that $8,068,540 in SAFETEA-LU Transit Earmark funding plus state match is available for the period 2007-2010. MVMPO 2007 Draft Regional Transportation Plan February 27, 2007 XII-17

Table XII - 12 2007-2030 Federal and State Transit Funding Merrimack Valley Regional Transit Authority Description 2007-2010 2011-2015 2016-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030 TOTAL Urbanized Area Formula (5307) $ 20,449,087 $29,367,691 $ 34,045,202 $ 39,467,720 $45,753,905 $169,083,606 Capital Fixed Guideway Program (5309) - - - - - - Elderly & Disabled (5310) 124,650 146,465 169,793 196,836 228,187 865,931 Non-Urbanized Area Formula (5311&5340) - - - - - - SAFETEA-LU Earmark (Haverhill Transit) 3,604,832 SAFETEA-LU Earmark (Law Gateway) 2,850,000 - - - - - JARC (5316) New Freedoms (5317) - - - - - - $ 27,028,569 $29,514,155 $ 34,214,995 $ 39,664,557 $45,982,092 $169,949,537 State Capital Investment $ 6,330,864 $ 7,463,830 $ 8,652,625 $ 10,030,763 $11,628,404 $ 44,106,485 State Contract Assistance for Operations $ 23,795,276 $33,247,404 $ 37,616,386 $ 42,559,488 $48,152,154 $185,370,709 State Match for SAFETEA-LU Earmarks $1,613,708 $ 1,613,708 Competitive Statewide Federal Funding Elderly & Disabled (5310) $ 14,005,616 $16,456,715 $ 19,077,843 $ 22,116,448 $25,639,025 $ 97,295,647 Non-Urbanized Area Formula (5311&5340) $ 13,331,997 $19,081,513 $ 22,120,704 $ 25,643,958 $29,728,376 $109,906,548 JARC (5316) $ 7,699,358 $ 9,046,243 $ 10,487,075 $ 12,157,394 $14,093,752 $ 53,483,821 New Freedoms (5317) $ 6,627,748 $ 7,783,478 $ 9,023,184 $ 10,460,343 $12,126,405 $ 46,021,157 MVMPO 2007 Draft Regional Transportation Plan February 27, 2007 XII-18

Table XII-13 below shows the MVRTA s anticipated capital expenditure for FY 2007-2030. Most of the Authority s capital spending will be for the acquisition of buses, vans and Table XII-13 Merrimack Valley Regional Transit Authority Anticipated Capital Expenditures 2007-2030 Category 2007-2010 2011-2015 2016-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030 Total Bus Replacement 17 buses starting in 2016 $8,178,350 $13,093,801 $21,272,151 Three buses starting in 2019 $1,623,447 $2,499,222 $4,122,668 14 buses starting in 2008 $4,550,000 $7,879,128 $12,429,128 12 buses starting in 2011 $4,744,946 $7,596,812 $12,341,758 Transmission Replacements $286,000 $577,694 $461,836 $954,031 $1,506,308 $3,785,869 Intercity Coach Replacement $2,585,387 $4,139,289 $6,724,676 Van Replacement $1,496,349 $1,969,094 $3,465,443 Support Vehicles Replacement $145,000 $263,186 $307,891 $781,559 $492,943 $1,990,579 Facility Construction Haverhill Parking Center $2,500,000 $2,500,000 Amesbury Transit Center $1,078,931 $1,078,931 MVRTA Service Center $3,900,000 $3,900,000 Haverhill Station Relocation $3,600,000 $3,600,000 Facility Updates McGovern Center $2,846,624 $4,213,698 $7,060,322 Buckley Terminal $2,846,624 $4,213,698 $7,060,322 Haverhill Transit Center $3,895,801 $3,895,801 Amesbury Transit Center $3,330,147 $4,929,431 $8,259,578 Haverhill Parking Center $3,463,353 $5,126,608 $8,589,961 MVRTA Service Center $3,202,064 $4,739,838 $7,941,902 Radio System $364,996 $480,310 $632,055 $1,477,360 ITS & Security Cameras $608,326 $800,516 $1,053,425 $2,462,267 Tools, Planning, Misc. Items 330000 $608,326 $740,122 $900,472 $1,095,562 $3,674,482 TOTAL $12,789,931 $19,046,110 $31,963,513 $30,349,932 $33,483,712 $127,633,198 Intercity buses. The Authority will also devote significant funding for the construction of the Amesbury Transit Center, the Haverhill Transit Parking facility and the expansion of the MVMPO 2007 Draft Regional Transportation Plan February 27, 2007 XII-19

MVRTA Service Center. In addition, the MVRTA anticipated making any improvements necessary to the MVRTA Garage and Administrative Offices, McGovern Transportation Center and Buckley Terminal in Lawrence and the MVRTA transit centers in Amesbury (to be constructed), Lawrence and Haverhill. This table does not include Section 9 and SAFETEA-LU Earmarks, which are shown in Table XII-12. Table XII-13 below compares the MVRTA s Anticipated Capital Expenditures for the period 2007 2030 with the amount of capital funding expected to be available. The amounts shown for MVRTA expenditures come from Table XII-12. Available Funding amounts equal the expected Section 5310 funding plus state match as well as Section 5307 funding and state match. This latter amount is reduced by the amount of funding that will be used for operating expenditures (see assumptions for Table XII-14 below). The comparison shows that the MVRTA will have sufficient capital funding available to complete its proposed capital program. Table XII-13 Transit Capital Funding Financial Constraint 2007-2010 2011-2015 2016-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030 TOTAL MVRTA Capital Expenditures $12,789,931 $19,046,110 $31,963,513 $30,349,932 $33,483,712 $127,633,198 Available Funding $18,225,590 $24,287,320 $28,675,009 $33,637,683 $39,442,754 $144,268,357 Transit Operating Funding Table XII-14 on the following page compares the Authority s estimated operating costs for 2007-2010 with anticipated revenue and funding assistance. The following assumptions are made in this table: State Contract Assistance will increase 2.5% annually from FY 2011-2030 Local Assessments will increase at 2.5% annually from FY 2009 2030 MVRTA Fare Revenue, Other Revenue and Local Assessments will increase at 2.5% annually from 2009-2030 MVRTA Operating costs will increase at 2.75% per year from 2009-2030 Section 5307 Funding for Preventive Maintenance and ADA Transportation will increase 2.5% annually from 2011-2030 $69,641,200 in Section 5307 funding plus state match will be used to fund operations during the period. This amount of funding will therefore not be available for capital projects. It should be noted that Table XII-14 does not assume the MVRTA will be receiving Job Access and Reverse Commute or New Freedom funding As noted earlier in this section, the Merrimack Valley MPO must first complete a Human Service Transportation Coordination MVMPO 2007 Draft Regional Transportation Plan February 27, 2007 XII-20

Plan before it can apply for Section 5316 and Section 5317 funding available in the Greater Boston region Table XII - 14 Transit Operating Funding Constraint Revenue/Assistance 2007-2010 2011-2015 2016-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030 TOTAL Contract Assistance $23,758,967 $33,247,405 $37,616,388 $42,559,490 $48,152,156 $185,334,406 Local Assessment $7,931,762 $11,082,466 $12,538,793 $14,186,493 $16,050,715 $61,790,229 Farebox Revenue $4,965,010 $7,050,821 $7,977,356 $9,025,647 $10,211,691 $39,230,524 Other Revenue $2,509,365 $3,343,878 $3,783,291 $4,280,447 $4,842,933 $18,759,915 5307 Prev. Maint $4,808,015 $6,957,454 $7,871,720 $8,906,129 $10,076,468 $38,619,786 5307 ADA $2,137,227 $3,077,906 $3,482,368 $3,939,980 $4,457,726 $17,095,208 State Match $1,733,768 $2,508,840 $2,838,522 $3,211,527 $3,633,548 $13,926,206 Total Operating Rev. $47,844,114 $67,268,770 $76,108,439 $86,109,713 $97,425,237 $374,756,274 Est. Cost of Service $45,939,185 $64,544,577 $73,921,183 $84,659,961 $96,958,796 $366,023,701 Table XII-14 shows that the Authority will have sufficient funding to maintain its current level of operations for the period. However, it is unlikely that the MVRTA will be able to add service without making cuts elsewhere in the system. In addition, should costs increase at greater than 2.75% per year, the Authority would need to identify additional sources of funding. Conclusions and Recommendations: The Merrimack Valley MPO 2007 Regional Transportation Plan is fiscally constrained for FY 2007-2030. Sufficient funding is anticipated to be available to implement all transit capital projects and to operate MVRTA transit services. Sufficient funding is also available to complete all roadway and bridge projects identified in the document. Additional sources of revenue are likely needed if the MVRTA wishes to implement new transit services during this period without cutting back on existing services in other areas. Such sources could include identification of an identified revenue source such as excess registry fees. Revenue could also be provided through the forward funding of the Regional Transit Authorities across the Commonwealth. MVMPO 2007 Draft Regional Transportation Plan February 27, 2007 XII-21