India US Strategic Partnership and Regional Security in Asia Maj Gen Dipankar Banerjee (Retd) Director and Head Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies New Delhi, India
INDIA LOCATION
India Today Democratic, pluralist, multi-religious, multi-lingual, lingual, multi- ethnic, yet united, peaceful and harmonious Disparity high, rural/urban, rich/poor, gender imbalance Large number disadvantaged and poor. Per capita GDP US $ 1000/ per month. 65 % of the people under US $ 2 per day Yet, a success story a tolerant, stable society, emergent knowledge power, 9 per cent sustainable growth GDP, strong democratic values deeply entrenched Need at least 15 years of 10 per cent annual GDP growth for meaningful dent on poverty By 2034 the most populous in the world one fifth of world population half of it under 25 yrs A re-emerging emerging power in the world after many centuries
Four Parts I Regional Security Environment II India and China Economic and Military competition - arms race? III Indo-US Strategic Partnership IV India & permanent membership of UNSC
PART I REGIONAL SECURITY ENVIRONMENT
STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT IN ASIA An Indian View A rising and assertive China US pre-eminent eminent player and a balancing role in Asia - for how long? A more relevant Russia, suddenly rich, deciding west or east? An ageing Japan yet, a technology leader A consolidating and unifying ASEAN A Turbulent West Asia An emerging India Many contending influences competing with each other
CURRENT AND FUTURE CHALLENGES IN ASIA Terrorism and its many faces Failed and failing states Territorial issues Proliferation of WMDs BMDs and weapons in space an arms race? Securing energy needs and its routes Global warming, climate change, ecological disasters Struggle over water
INDIA S S STRATEGIC INTERESTS Peace within existing borders Secure maritime environment for trade routes A stable and cordial relations with major global powers An international role mainly through UN peacekeeping An international trade and investment condition supporting sustained equitable growth with a say in shaping it Access to energy sources and technology under equitable conditions A peaceful environment for sustained economic growth
PAKISTAN AS A FACTOR A major country with 165 million people with nuclear weapons and missiles About half of India s convential military capability Always aligned with outside powers to attempt to balance India Presently aligned with China - a very close relationship including military and strategic Politically unstable may give further boost to radical Islamists The most dangerous state today? (Newsweek) An epicentre of terrorism and unstable -Iran of 1979? Potential threat of major consequence to the world - cannot be ignored
PART II India and China economic and military an arms race?
China and India Over 40 per cent of world population Two fastest growing nations Fought a war in 1962 Yet, an unsettled land border A totalitarian state unpredictable discontinuity? Since 1993 solid agreements for peace and tranquility and CBMs along borders Presently - a state of solid constructive engagement
INDIA CHINA and the World World Devp Report - 2005 World India China Population (mn) 6237 1055 1288 GNP ($bn) 34,577 601 1417 Growth (%) 2.8 8.6 9.3 % of Global Pop. -- 17.0 21.0 % of Global GNP -- 1.73 4.09
USA China India Pop (mn( mn) 301.3 1314.5 1095.4 GDP($) Per Cap. 13.2 tr 43950 2.7tr 2054 800 bn 733 Tax ($) Revenues 2.5 trillion 8297/per s 486 billion 370/pers 84 billion 88/pers BO Trade -225 bn. +177.5 bn. -53.40 bn
INDIA - CHINA TRADE
India s s Trade with US and China
MILITARY BALANCE 2007 (IISS, London, 2007) China India GDP (In US $) 2.62tr 839bn Def Budget (In US $) 35.3bn 22.3bn Active Armed Forces 2,255,000 1,316,000 Reserves 1,155,000 800,000 Army Total Strength 1,600,000 1,100,000 MBT 7,580+ 3,978 ARTY 17,700+ 10,360+ Helicopters 375+ 162
Military Balance - Navy China India Navy Total Strength 255,000 55,000 Submarines 58 16 Principal Surface Combatants 76 58 Aircraft Carriers --- 1+1 Destroyers 28 8 Frigates 48 24 Corvettes --- 25 Naval Aviation 792 34 Marines 10,000 1200
MILITARY BALANCE Air Force China India Air Force Total Strength 210,000 161,000 Bomber 222 ------ Combat Aircraft 2,643 849 Fighter 1,179 137 FGA 1,242 674 Maritime Attack ----- 16 Helicopters 80 296 Para Military 1,500,000 1,300,586
CHINA S S MISSILE FORCE Type Range/Payload (Km/Kg) 1998 2005 2010 Land based Missile DF-3 (3A)/CSS-2 DF-3: 2,650/2,150 DF-3A: 2,800/2,150 Warhead: 3.3 MT 38 38+ DF-4/CSS-3 4,750/2,200 Warhead: 3.3 MT 10+ ~10 DF-5 (5A)/CSS-4 DF-5: 12,000/3,200 DF-5A: 13,000/3,200 Warhead: 4 5 MT ~20 ~28 DF-21 (21A)/CSS-5 DF-21: 1,700/600 DF-21A: 1,800/600 Warhead: 200 300 KT 30 30+ DF-31 8,000/700 Warhead: 100 200 KT 20 DF-41 12,000/800 22+
CHINA S S MISSILE DEPLOYMENT SITES
DEFENCE BUDGETS China Amount Growth India Amount Growth 2007 56400 13.83% 26014 8.33% 2006 49500 11.73% 23933 7.45% 2005 44300 9.92% 22273 15.98% 2004 40300 10.10% 19204 2.89% 2003 36600 10.57% 18664 2.234% 2002 33100 18.21% 18256-0.31% 2001 28000 18313
Projected Def Expenditure ($ bn) 2000 2020 2050 China 26.65 96.6 774.47 India 11.95 37.4 215.17
AN ARMS RACE WITH CHINA? What constitutes an arms race? Competitive acquisition of defence capabilities often between paired states Conditions significant budget b increases major equipment acquisitions increase in forces leading often to belligerency result in tension and war Not as of now near term very unlikely, yet if space and other developments?
Part III Indo-US Strategic Partnership
INDO-US STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP Why? End of the Cold War altered the global strategic equations Our shared interests make us natural allies Large Indian population richest ethnic community in US Complements each other s s strategic interests based on shared values To promote stability and progress in Asia Military cooperation agreements in1995 & 2005 What it is not An alliance Directed at China A crutch to super powerdom for India Likely to emerge as an important plank for stability and security in Asia.
INDO-US STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP (Contd( Contd) What it entails Strategic dialogues and exchanges at multiple levels Regular tri-service exercises in each other s countries Maritime exs in seas around India Disaster relief & rescue Counter terrorism including intelligence sharing In future - Technology exchanges Impending weapons purchase Collaboration in R&D
JOINT COOPERATIVE PROJECTS Civil nuclear cooperation India-US Global Democracy Initiative Expanded Economic dialogue, a CEO forum Cooperation in science & technology Space cooperation Energy dialogue Agricultural Knowledge initiative A growing military partnership
INDO-US Nuclear Deal An acknowledgement of India s s advanced nuclear technology Removal of unilateral restrictions on India Removal of technology denial Enable IAEA inspections on selected facilities
WHAT IT MEANS Advantage India Removes Tech denial regimes Alternate safe energy source Reduces hydro-carbon dependence Strengthens mutual coop Opens up global coop on nuclear energy Advantage US Opens up business opportunities Civil nuke industry may benefit Address CO 2 emissions & global warming Bring India into non-prolif regimes Counter weight to China? Hedging Brings into non-prolif mainstream
PARTNERSHIP IMPACT ON DEFENCE INDUSTRY Removal of technology sales restrictions Opens up high tech collaborations Off-set measures in defence purchases likely boon to Indian defence industry Complementarity between US and Indian defence industries Will require restructuring of Indian Defence Industry Lead to a major boost to modernize Indian defence industry
PART IV India & permanent membership of UNSC
INDIA AND PERMANENT MEMBERSHIP OF UNSC Need to set norms for membership Population Nature of government Geographic representation Execution of international responsibilities Adoption of international values Contribution to UN funds or PKO Build an international consensus Think of innovative possibilities Prevent disruption by spoilers
POSSIBILITY OF UNSC MEMBERSHIP Realistically remote a closed club Statistically difficult - conditions stiff Existing members unwilling to share powers G-4 4 initiative was the best approach and needs to be pursued Need for Brazil and India to collaborate closely
CONCLUSION