Disruption in Aerospace/Defense Peeling the Onion Mark A. Bobbi Principal Analyst, Aviation IHS Markit Aerospace, Defence, and Security November 9, 2016
Agenda A. Disruption Defined Aero/Defense Disruptions Programs, Political, Technology, Conflict/Diplomatic 1. Space 2. Networked combat systems 3. Nuclear weapons 4. China 5. Commercial 6. Supply Chain 7. Conclusion (s)
3 Disruption Defined Programs Technology Geo-Political Conflict/Diplomatic Russian RDS-1 Courtesy Of Phobos.Ramapo.edu Shutterstock.com/Toria Sunday Times UK
4 Space Photo Courtesy of Planet Photo Courtesy of Stratolaunch Photo Courtesy of Flicr
5 Networked Combat Systems Apache helicopter pilots can control the payloads, sensors and flight of unmanned aircraft systems from the cockpit of their helicopter Network and Communications 5 th to 4 th gen communications US small fleet of F-22 and F-35 forcing acceleration of comprehensive communications with legacy aircraft. Manned/Unmanned teaming will reshape the air/land battle space AH-64 will soon directly control armed UAS F-22 and F-35 future developments include control of massed UAS LRS-B may be first modern weapon system to launch mass loitering PGMs
6 Nuclear Weapons Russia Pushing the diplomatic and warhead envelope > Willful violation of multiple nuclear treaties > Building first strike monster weapons (Satan 200 MT ICBM) North Korea (1994 US cash for food ) Diplomatic Disruption 1.0 Iran (2016 nuclear deal) Diplomatic Disruption 2.0 > Neighbors likely to respond with their own nuclear weapon acquisition programs Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait
7 China Industrial theft China s principal DISRUPTIVE weapon against the USA > 1990s The Loral scandal Improved Chinese spacecraft and missile guidance has led to, among others: Long range, ballistic anti-ship missiles threatening US carrier battle groups forcing USN deployment rethink Anti-Satellite weapons > 2007 Hack of US DoD network Led directly to J-20 and FC-31 fighters and US launch of Sixth Gen efforts
8 Commercial Evolutionary - Bigger Getting Bigger and Bigger Getting Smaller > Four-engine wide bodies nearly gone after 46 years of service > Business jets getting larger and with longer range 30 years ago biggest large jet was GIV with range of 4,000 miles Today s Super Medium Jets are as large and fly greater ranges than the GIV Today s biggest jets are all far larger than the GIV and have range nearing 7,000 nmi > Turbines moving further down the GA/business aircraft development chain Dr. Williams disrupted this market in the early 1990s (FJ44 and CJ1) A dozen or more jets were developed or are planned that are far smaller than the CJ1 and with engine power down to under 1,000 lbst Disruptive > P&W Geared TurboFan Reshaping the entire large commercial engine marketplace > GE Additive Manufacturing Doubling down on tech to lower cost, time to market, and dominant supplier positions > Turboprops expanding further down into the GA market with GE s H80 and ATP plus AM further reshaping the market and forcing competitive action > Unpiloted/Unmanned taxis and freighters
9 Supply Chain Everything is Getting Smaller Lockheed Martin 2.5 foot/5 lb hit to kill missile We applied the core principles of Hit-To-Kill capability, seeker accuracy and missile agility, to a new class of problem, said Tim Cahill, Vice President of Integrated Air and Missile Defense at Lockheed Martin. We achieved miniaturization through the use of photonics, leveraging medical imaging technologies and mobile phone industry techniques combined with state-of-the-art electronics packaging. Tim Cahill, Vice President of Integrated Air and Missile Defense at Lockheed Martin
10 Supply Chain (2) Nanotechnologies (materials, structures) > Additive Manufacturing GE pushing the tech and supply chain Vertical Integration 2.0 > Again GE but also Boeing - Capturing MRO and supplier margin Electronic Components - Everything is getting smaller > Increasing electrification of aircraft - B787 (1400kVa vs 400) > Increasing sensor density of aircraft and other platforms Engines from 10 (1990s) to 25 (Today s RR Trent) to several hundred (Tomorrow s Intelligent Engine) Prognostic Sensors MEMS > Aircraft from a few hundred to 1,000 or more > Dual and trimode missile seeker Fifth and Sixth Gen aircraft Hybrid and all electric aircraft
11 Conclusion(s) Disruption is an on going process We are experiencing the results of prior decades of disruptions > North Korea and China > Microminiaturization > Geared Turbofan and UAS We are witnessing new disruptive forces > Middle East foreign policy Am emboldened Iran > Asia Pacific foreign policy A fearless China > Increasing miniaturization and density of electronic components through the use of: Nano materials MEMS