The Future of the African Upstream Sector: EMERGENCE OF INDIGENOUS INDEPENDENTS Presentation by Wale Tinubu Group Chief Executive 3 rd November 2010
Agenda I. Introduction II Regional Disparity III. Spotlight on Nigeria IV. Case Study 2
I. Introduction: The Environment 3
The Upstream Environment Asia Pacific 3% Oil + Gas: 2,500MMBOE Middle East 56% Oil & Gas Reserves by Region Africa 10% N America 5% GDP Contributions Africa 2% South &Central America 15% Europe & Eurasia 11% Oil & Gas Production by Region Asia Pacific 12% Oil + Gas Production: 131MMBOE/D Middle East 24% Europe & Eurasia 26% Africa 10% Projected Growth in Energy Consumption N America 21% South &Central America 7% Asia Pacific 29% N America 28% Middle East 3% Europe 33% S&C America 5% Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010. 4
The African Upstream Environment Trends Oil Reserves by Country International Oil Companies (IOC s) dominate. Algeria, Angola, Libya & Nigeria lead the continent in reserves and production. Significant investments offshore West Africa in Exploration and Development. 1BN barrel discoveries offshore Africa. Major African Players Country Crude Oil BBLs Natural Gas Tcf Algeria 12.0 159.0 Angola 9.5 9.6 Libya 44.0 - Nigeria 37.0 187.0 Others 17.0 140.0 Total 119.0 495.0 Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010. IHS African Oil Production: 9.7mmbbl/d Gabon 2% Oil Production by Country Sudan 5% Nigeria 21% Libya 17% Equatorial Guinea 3% Tunisia 1% Algeria 19% Egypt 8% Other Africa 1% Angola 18% Cameroon 1% Chad 1% Rep. of Congo (Brazzaville) 3% 5
II. Regional Disparity 6
Multinational Companies dominate in Africa Africa & Middle East Reserves by Company type Independents, 14% Production by company type Independents 9% Regional, 28% Integrated, 58% Regional 31% Integrated 60% Canada USA World Independents, 42% Independents, 64% Independents 25% Integrated, 26% Regional, 32% Integrated, 35% Regional, 1% Integrated 30% Independents 53% Independents 61% Independents 24% Regional 26% Integrated 37% Regional 2% Integrated 33% Integrated 21% Regional 45% Regional 43% 7
III. Spotlight on Nigeria 8
The dominance of International Oil Companies is especially pronounced in Nigeria IOCs in Nigeria Nigeria vs. US & Canada The IOCs operate 87% of Nigeria s production Nigeria Independent 5% Marginals 0.5% 60% of Nigeria s production is via JV s between IOCs and the National Oil Company. The IOCs have a clear financial & technological Non IOC Foreign 7% IOC (PSC) 28% IOC (JV) 59% Integrated, 87% advantage over the local Independents. The IOCs control the majority of the upstream infrastructure. USA Integrated, 35% Independents frequently piggy back on IOC infrastructure to get hydrocarbons to market. Changed by the emergence of NOC s, improved service companies, legislation and indigenization. Independents, 64% Canada Independents, 42% Regional, 1% Integrated, 26% Regional, 32% Source: NNPC Annual Statistical Bulletin, IHS Herold 9
mmbbl/d Independents can drive significant growth in Nigeria s upstream industry Opportunity Utilization of spare capacity and development of proven undeveloped (PUDs) assets can make a significant impact on future production growth even compared with the major projects 4.4 3.9 3.4 Upcoming Projects 2.9 2.4 1.9 10
Drivers for future growth Short Term Medium Term The PIB in Nigeria will provide clarity for investment decision making. Nigerian marginal field award round due this year will unlock reserves to the independents. Relinquishment clauses in place for PUD s. Local legislation grants indigenous independents a competitive advantage. Sustained curtailment of militancy and political strife in oil and gas producing areas Continued global economic recovery which ease capital markets and improve smaller independent producers access to funding. Demand growth from BRIC countries and emerging markets Power sector reforms increase gas demand and boost Nigeria s gas industry Long Term Progressive energy policies from producing countries Technology transfer to indigenous independents as a result of partnerships with IOCs 11
Independents can drive significant growth in Nigeria s upstream industry Opportunities Indigenous Independents can take over spare capacity that has been shut in. Indigenous Independents can develop smaller fields that are low on the IOCs priority lists Indigenous Independents can operate in areas IOCs cannot - they are less provocative to oil producing communities that have legacy issues with the IOCs. Favorable terms granted to Indigenous companies can make prior non-profitable projects profitable to Indigenous Independents. Production: ~2.1mmb/d Capacity Utilization Unused capacity: ~900kb/d PUDs, unable to operate Vandalism Uneconomic under current conditions Recent Positive Steps Insufficient infrastructure Sale of OMLs 4, 38 & 41 by Shell, Total, & Eni to SEPLAT NPDC taking over operatorship from Chevron on Aroh (OML 49) and Yorla (OML 51) Sale of OML 26 to First Hydrocarbon (AFREN) 12
IV. Case Study 13
Case Study Upstream Division Midstream Division Downstream Division Exploration & Production Energy Services Gas & Power Marketing Supply and Trading Market Position (a) A leading indigenous player #1 #1 #1 #1 Description Rapidly expanding business Primary assets are located in Nigeria Asset class include, land, swamp, & deep water Largest swamp drilling fleet in Nigeria First private sector company to enter gas distribution in Nigeria Consists of Gaslink Nigeria Limited, Akute Power and East Horizon Gas Company Limited Nigeria s leading retailer of refined petroleum products with 18% market share Large distribution footprint with access to over 1,980 trucks and 159.5mL storage capacity Largest indigenous supply and trading player in the sub- Saharan region ~22% market share in private PMS importation in 2008 Key Assets Producing assets: OML 125, OML 56 Development & appraisal: OML 134, OML 90, OPL 236 Exploration: OPL 278, OPL 282 as well as assets acquired through EEL acquisition. 5 swamp rigs Drill bits and engineering services Total fluids management 128 km gas pipeline in the East of Nigeria spanning Akwa Ibom and Cross River states 100 km gas distribution pipeline in Lagos (110+ Connects) Akute Captive Power Plant 600+retail outlets in Nigeria also Ghana and Togo Eight terminals (159.5ML) 3 Aviation fuel depots Two lube blending plants (55m litres / annum) Seven LPG filling plants Trading desks in Nigeria and Bermuda Trading consultants in the UK and Singapore 14
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