Virtual Adjacency and the meaning of Place. CTN TeleCommunications, Inc. slide 1
Virtual Adjacency and the meaning of Place. CTN TeleCommunications, Inc. slide 2
The warm-up: You can t depend on your eyes when your imagination is out of focus. Mark Twain CTN TeleCommunications, Inc. slide 3
The warm-up: Progress is the work of unreasonable men. George Bernard Shaw CTN TeleCommunications, Inc. slide 4
The Social Impact of Technology Change. The evolution of technology has two very different impacts: * It improves something we already do. this is simple and straightforward. * It makes things possible that were not possible before the technology was invented. this involves behavioral change. CTN TeleCommunications, Inc. slide 5
Technology change makes things possible that never were. It is disruptive. Tomorrow is not a piecewise linear extrapolation of yesterday. CTN TeleCommunications, Inc. slide 6
Trend Summary! Computers will continue to get smaller, more powerful, cheaper.! Video screens will get larger, thinner, higher resolution, cheaper.! Communications networks will become high-bandwidth, cheaper.! Transportation congestion will continue to worsen.! We can no longer build our way out of transportation problems.! Much of what we think of as a "transportation problem" is in fact a "communications problem.! Urban decay and suburban sprawl are no longer tolerable (e.g. Maryland Smart Growth Law of 1996.)! Office buildings will become more like clubs than factories their purpose is to facilitate face-to-face interaction of human beings. CTN TeleCommunications, Inc. slide 7
The Hellman Transform per Robert Metcalfe, Ph.D. (ethernet / 3Com) Time Domain minutes People live in two different dimensions time and space and they shift between them without realizing. Transportation Virtual Adjacency Communication Space Domain miles The days of people putting up with commutes that they hate to arrive at a building they do not enjoy are numbered. Be where you want to be, do what you have to do. CTN TeleCommunications, Inc. slide 8
Virtual Adjacency and the meaning of Place. CTN TeleCommunications, Inc. slide 9
Bandwidth. Fiber is to Bandwidth as the Integrated Circuit is to Transistors. George Gilder CTN TeleCommunications, Inc. slide 10
The numbers boggle the mind. 60 * 60 * 24 * 365 = 31,536,000 # of seconds in 1 year 2 billion * 8 = 16,000,000,000 # of transistors on an 2GB chip 16 billion * 3 = 48,000,000,000 # of solder joints on an 2GB chip 1,500 years to count that high; $15 to purchase CTN TeleCommunications, Inc. slide 11
Fiber Analogy with Nervous System. Imagine an organism where each cell is a human-being CTN TeleCommunications, Inc. slide 12
Why is Virtual Adjacency important? Urban decay Poverty Crime Recidivism Latch key kids dual incomes Medical care quality / time... CTN TeleCommunications, Inc. slide 13
Why is Virtual Adjacency important? Terrorism ideas not guns Social Security make elders productive Unemployment learning is a job Homelessness Homeless University or it is a medical problem... CTN TeleCommunications, Inc. slide 14
Virtual Adjacency and Terrorism Insurgencies are ultimately inspired by ideas, As such, the single most important step the United States could take toward victory is re-creating an information agency to discredit our enemies' narratives and amplify those of our allies. CTN TeleCommunications, Inc. slide 15
Virtual Adjacency and Terrorism Already, the escalating cost of the wars has crowded out spending on virtually all other discretionary federal programs, CTN TeleCommunications, Inc. slide 16
Virtual Adjacency and Terrorism Bilmess and Stiglitz cont. We could have had a Marshall Plan to help desperately poor countries, winning the hearts and maybe the minds of Muslim nations now gripped by anti-americanism. In a world with millions of illiterate children, we could have achieved literacy for all -- for less than the price of a month's combat in Iraq. Closer to home, we could have funded countless schools to give children locked in the underclass a shot at decent lives. Or we could have tackled the massive problem of Social Security CTN TeleCommunications, Inc. slide 17
Virtual Adjacency and Terrorism The Pentagon CANNOT win this war. A multi-national Peace Corps empowered by information technologies can. http://hir.harvard.edu/index.php?page=article&id=1336 CTN TeleCommunications, Inc. slide 18
jjh/ Gore book Virtual Adjacency not Telecommuting reinvent government make the NII relevant & productive concern for the environment These are not three separate things! CTN TeleCommunications, Inc. slide 19
jjh/ Gore book Virtual Adjacency not Telecommuting Cong. Steny Hoyer wrote the transmittal letter: I am sure that you will find it very helpful as we look ahead to economically and environmentally efficient ways to reinvent government and I look forward to hearing your thoughts on it. The date was July 25, 1996! CTN TeleCommunications, Inc. slide 20
DHS should be the poster-child! It was 2004: We proposed a balanced, distributed office plan for DHS: Virtual Consolidation CTN TeleCommunications, Inc. slide 21
DHS should be the poster-child embrace telework as a workplace priority for both the public and private sectors to improve continuity of operations in the event that a disaster whether natural or man-made strikes our country CTN TeleCommunications, Inc. slide 22
New technologies empower the individual Cable Television is a one-way street: They send / You receive. In the world of virtual adjacency, the individual generates content every bit as significant as any he (she) might be receiving! CTN TeleCommunications, Inc. slide 23
The role of government. In the context of private-sector daily life, it is to create a playing field where it is easier to make money doing the right thing than the wrong thing. externalities Do well by doing good. CTN TeleCommunications, Inc. slide 24