STAFF REPORT MEETING DATE: June 6, 2017 TO: FROM: City Council Robert Brown, Community Development Director 922 Machin Avenue Novato, CA 94945 415/ 899-8900 FAX 415/ 899-8213 www.novato.org PRESENTER: Robert Brown, Community Development Director SUBJECT: DIRECTION TO STAFF ON WHETHER TO SEND A COMMENT LETTER TO ABAG AND MTC ON DRAFT PLAN BAY AREA 2040 AND EIR REQUEST Consider whether to send a letter to the Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG) and the Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC) commenting on the Draft Bay Area 2040 and its associated environmental impact report. BACKGROUND In 2008, the State adopted SB 375, which requires that Regional Transportation Plans, which allocate funding for transportation projects, include a Sustainable Communities Strategy (SCS) that would coordinate regional land use and transportation planning with a goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions from the transportation sector by 7% by 2020 and 15% by 2035. In July 2013, the Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC) and ABAG adopted Plan Bay Area (PBA) 2013 as the Bay Area s first Regional Transportation Plan/Sustainable Communities Strategy. The major policy intent of PBA 2013 was to incentivize cities to self-designate Priority Development Areas (PDAs) for higher-intensity infill development near major transit lines. In exchange for planning for higher residential densities or commercial intensities, these jurisdictions would receive the lion share of discretionary transportation funding. State law requires that the RTP/SCS must be updated every four years. In spring 2015, MTC and ABAG initiated a limited update of Plan Bay Area, called PBA 2040. This update will entail updated growth projections both to reflect the uptick in the economy and to better align ABAG s forecasts with those of the Department of Finance, which was a point of contention in the previous PBA 2013. Growth Projections As with most long-range planning exercises, PBA 2040 included the preparation of alternative regional growth scenarios which either focused or dispersed growth to various locales in the Bay Area, and tested various types and locations of transportation improvements to analyze the different impacts of these alternative visions of growth to the year 2040. cc17_100 1 1
In late 2015, ABAG forwarded first round draft projections of households and jobs by jurisdiction and asked for comments from cities and counties. On February 2, 2016 the City Council received a presentation from ABAG and City staff comparing the draft ABAG projections with those being utilized for the City s General Plan update. At the conclusion of the hearing, the City Council supported sending a letter to ABAG commenting that the lower end of the projected range of jobs and households was generally consistent with those being estimated by the City. The letter was sent on February 8, 2016 (see Attachment 1). On June 4, 2016 ABAG and MTC hosted a workshop in Marin on Plan Bay Area 2040, and at the meeting distributed a table of revised projected jobs and households by jurisdiction for each of three future growth scenarios being evaluated (Main Streets: more scattered, decentralized growth; Connected Neighborhoods: Focused growth in Priority Development Areas along transit routes; Big Cities: focused growth in San Francisco, Oakland and San Jose). In response to the projections issued in June, the City Council authorized a comment letter at their meeting of July 12, 2016, again stating that the jobs projections significantly exceeded previous ABAG assumptions and the City s recently prepared General Plan projections (see Attachment 2). On August 30, 2016, ABAG and MTC released their Preferred Scenario household and jobs projections by jurisdiction (see Attachment 3). This scenario sought to maximize land use patterns and transportation improvements to meet the greatest number of project goals (e.g., greenhouse gas reduction, affordable housing, open space preservation, congestion, etc.). The City Council authorized a comment letter at their meeting of October 11, 2016 expressing concerns over the recalibration of housing and jobs numbers assumed to have existed in 2010, which resulted in an increase of nearly 6,000 jobs to the 2010 base (see Exhibit 3). The City did not, however, object to the proposed housing and jobs projections for Novato, since both were lower than the original Plan Bay Area. ABAG and MTC adopted the final Preferred Scenario for EIR analysis in late November. Draft PBA 2040 attempts to accommodate 666,000 new households and 668,000 new jobs by the year 2040, and distribute $303 billion in transportation funds. 46% of household growth are projected to occur in the Big 3 Cities of San Francisco, Oakland and San Jose, and 77% of new households in PDAs. Only 1% of new household growth in the Bay Area is projected to occur in Marin County (see Attachment 4). 43% of job growth is projected in the Big 3 Cities and 55% in PDAs. Again, only 1% of new job growth is projected in Marin County (see Attachment 5). Novato is projected to increase by only 900 households through 2040 an increase of about 40 dwellings per year. Employment increases in Novato are projected at 1,900 new jobs by 2040. Both projections are well less than 2013 Plan Bay Area. Household projections have decreased from 1,170 to 900 new households, a 77% decrease from the previous Plan Bay Area. Job projections for Novato have decreased from 3,500 jobs to 1,900 new jobs by 2040, a 54% decrease. A comparison of the Draft PBA 2040 jobs and households projections by Marin jurisdiction with PBA 2013 can be found in Attachment 6. Transportation Investment Strategy The Preferred Scenario also includes a proposed regional transportation investment strategy. Regional spending priorities largely continues the overall priorities from PBA 2013 which are largely focused on a fix it first priority for transit and roads, followed by supporting focused 2 2
growth and protecting climate. In the face of substantial transportation needs, funding existing transit operations is the largest single investment for the region over the next 24 years. Regionally, $303B is expected to be available for transportation operations, maintenance and improvements through the year 2040. Of this, half will go to maintaining and operating existing transportation facilities and service providers. Only 10%, about $30B, will be available over the next 23 years for expansion of transit or roadway facilities and services. The projects submitted by the Transportation Authority of Marin Board in May 2016 for consideration in Plan Bay Area 2040 are all included in the Draft PBA 2040. Over the 25-year plan funding, $17M is included for widening of Novato Boulevard between Diablo and Grant, $42 M for extending SMART to Larkspur and $136M for U.S. 101 widening between Marin and Sonoma counties. A copy of the proposed Plan Bay Area 2040 Transportation Project List for Marin is attached as Exhibit 7. PBA 2040 Performance The Draft EIR for PBA 2040 finds that of 78 impact areas analyzed (evaluating regional growth consequences over the next 23 years at a macro level), 40 were identified as being insignificant with mitigation, and 38 were found significant and unavoidable. The proposed PBA 2040, was found to be preferable to the No Project alternative (allowing growth to occur according to individual general plans, without regional coordination and incentivizing growth towards existing transit) and the Main Streets alternative that would allocate more growth to suburban downtowns. The Big Cities alternative of locating even more growth than planned in the 3 big cities of San Francisco, Oakland and San Jose, had less significant impacts than the proposed PBA 2040. The Sustainable Communities Strategy for the Bay Area has two principal objectives (achieving the mandated greenhouse gas reduction of 15% by 2035 and accommodating all needed housing growth to compensate job growth within the 9 Bay Area counties) and 11 voluntary objectives. The Draft Plan achieves or moves in the right direction on 9 of these, but moves in the wrong direction on four, including housing/transportation affordability and displacement of lower income residents. To address the continuing challenges of implementing this regional strategy of encouraging housing growth near transit and jobs and associating discretionary transportation funds to areas accepting more growth, the Draft Plan includes Action Plans in 3 areas: Housing Production, Preservation and Protection, Economic Development and Resilience. The elements of these 3 action plans are included as Attachments 8, 9 and 10. In the area of housing affordability, the major actions include the CASA blue-ribbon committee on affordable housing that will recommend a regional funding strategy to increase subsidies for affordable housing, possibly through a regional tax. Another strategy will be to further link discretionary transportation, infrastructure and planning grants to actual housing production, not just having a designated Priority Development Area. In the area of Resilience to the effects of climate change, there is concern that many PDAs and transit facilities are in areas that will be subject to sea level rise. The Action Plan includes a proposal for a more regional governance structure to coordinate activities of many state and regional agencies around planning for and mitigation sea level rise. FISCAL IMPACT None. 3 3
RECOMMENDATION Review Draft Plan Bay Area 2040 and choose to not submit comments to ABAG and MTC based on Novato s declining jobs and housing projections. ALTERNATIVES 1. Direct staff to prepare a letter responding to ABAG/MTC s Draft PBA 2040 or EIR. ATTACHMENTS 1. February 8, 2016 comment letter from Community Development Director to ABAG 2. July 13, 2016 comment letter from Community Development Director to ABAG 3. October 11, 2016 comment letter from Community Development Director to ABAG 4. Map of PBA 2040 Household Growth Projections by County 5. Map of PBA 2040 Job Growth Projections by County 6. Comparison of PBA Household and Job Projections for Marin County jurisdictions with PBA 2013. 7. Proposed Transportation Improvement List for Marin 8. PBA 2040 Housing Action Plan 9. PBA 2040 Economic Development Action Plan 10. PBA 2040 Resilience Action Plan 4 4
February 8, 2016 Miriam Chion Planning & Research Director Association of Bay Area Governments 101 8 th Street Oakland, CA 94607 922 Machin Avenue Novato, CA 94945 415/899-8900 FAX 415/899-8213 www.novato.org Mayor Pat Eklund Mayor Pro Tem Denise Athas Councilmembers Pam Drew Josh Fryday Eric Lucan City Manager Michael S. Frank Dear Ms. Chion: Thank you for the opportunity to provide feedback on the Plan Bay Area 2040 draft preliminary growth projections for Novato. We greatly appreciate the need for thoughtful planning on how to accommodate future growth, particularly as the Bay Area s economy is expanding rapidly and housing costs continue to escalate. The City of Novato is located 25 miles north of San Francisco. Most of our residents work in Novato (34%) or in other communities in Marin County (31%). 1 The City has been somewhat removed from the impacts of the booming technology industry, which are most clearly being experienced in San Francisco, the Peninsula and the South Bay communities. Although we have seen asking rents increase nearly 9% over the last year and median single family home prices increase almost 7%, Novato s housing costs have not risen as dramatically as they have in San Francisco and in the southern Marin communities. 2, 3 Novato remains the most affordable community in Marin County in which to rent or purchase a home. While our unemployment rate is low (3.2%) and our economy continues to improve, we still have significant retail vacancies and an office vacancy rate of 23%. 4, 5 The economy is good in Novato, but not expanding rapidly, due in part to the City s location and demographics. The City has embarked on a marketing campaign to attract tech companies, particularly in the bio/life sciences industry, to Novato in order to provide higher-paying jobs that enable people to both work and live in our community. While we have had some successes, it is too early to determine if demand for new office space will ultimately justify development of the new office and R&D space included in our growth forecasts below. The median age of our residents is 44.1 years, slightly lower than Marin County s average age of 45.1 years. 6 The Department of Finance projects that the Marin County population will continue to age over the next 25 years, with the senior cohort increasing its share of the overall population from 17% in 2010 to 27% in 2030 and 26% in 2040, before finally receding to more historic norms. 7 We expect a similar pattern in Novato, with the senior cohort increasing from 16% to 25% of the population by 2040. As a result, we project modest growth in Novato that reflects the aging population. Over the next 25 years, we expect homes that are currently housing empty nesters will slowly turn over to families with school-age children, and that our existing housing stock will be able to absorb many of the new residents in the process. Approximately 68% of our existing housing stock has 3 or more bedrooms, but only 37% of our existing households have 3 or more persons, indicating that many of our residents are living in houses that are larger than they need. 8 We expect this imbalance to correct itself as new, higher-paying job 1 Census Transportation Planning Products, 2006-2010 Five-year estimates. 2 RealFacts, Novato Market Overview, 3 rd Quarter 2015. 3 Marin County Assessor, annual data for 2014 and 2015. 4 California Employment Development Division, Monthly Labor Force Data for Cities and Census Designated Places, November 2015 Preliminary (data not seasonally adjusted). 5 Newmark Cornish & Carey, Marin County 3Q15 Office Market Research. 6 American Community Survey 3-year Estimates, 2013 7 California Department of Finance, Report P-1 (age) State and County Population Projections by Major Age Groups, December 15, 2014. 8 American Community Survey 3-year Estimates, 2013. 5
opportunities attract families to Novato. Update of the City s General Plan Over the past 2 ½ years the City has been studying areas that are good candidates for revitalization and/or vacant infill sites that can accommodate new or additional growth. This process included a comprehensive inventory of all unimproved parcels that are currently designated for commercial or multifamily use. This effort identified just 21 vacant commercial and multi-family sites throughout the City, ranging in size from 0.14 to 39 acres, with a median parcel size of 1.85 acres. The City is currently considering land use changes for some of these parcels. However, since only 2.4% of Novato s land is designated for commercial or mixed-use, and only 5% is designated for business or industrial land use, the City is only considering shifting land use designations within these categories. Retaining existing land zoned for commercial and business/professional office use remains a City priority. The City s planning process has focused on four specific areas, as described below. North, North Redwood Boulevard Corridor, extending north of San Marin Drive to the City s northerly boundary with Olompali State Park. The mile-long corridor contains most of the City s remaining vacant commercially zoned land as well as the new San Marin SMART rail station. The centerpiece of development in the area on the eastern slope of Mount Burdell is the world-renowned Buck Institute for Research on Aging. At the southern end of the study area, along San Marin Drive, is the 711,000 square-foot office complex known by its former principal tenant, Fireman s Fund. The City is considering resdesignating and rezoning three parcels from Light Industrial/Office to Business/Professional Office in order to support the community s vision for the area as a life sciences industry hub. North Redwood Boulevard Corridor is a 20-acre area, bounded by Olive Avenue to the south and San Marin Drive to the north. The area is considered one of the last major re-developable areas in Marin County, and with its proximity to Highway 101and the new North Novato SMART rail station, could be very attractive for new investment and revitalization. Two of the major land uses in the corridor, Shamrock Materials and Dairymen s Milling, have generally ceased operations and wish to sell their properties for redevelopment. The community s vision for the area includes a vibrant, pedestrian-oriented retail development with gathering places, restaurants and entertainment in place of the existing commercial and industrial uses. The City is considering some land use redesignations and rezonings to promote retail and mixed use development. Northwest Quadrant, one of the historic neighborhoods of Downtown Novato, is almost completely built out with single and multi-family buildings, but anticipated revisions to existing development standards could incentivize some reinvestment in the neighborhood. These units are expected to be small and could provide ideal housing opportunities for empty nesters seeking to downsize. Downtown. The City is considering redesignating and rezoning parcels on Redwood Boulevard between Vallejo and Olive Avenue to allow residential mixed use. Redevelopment of the Downtown could include new second story housing above ground-floor commercial uses and some additional commercial development. Development Projections The City has developed household and job projections, as shown in the table below. These projections are based on the results of the focus area studies, analysis of vacant and underutilized commercial and multifamily parcels, and housing potential identified in the Available Land Inventory of the City s 2015-2023 Housing Element. The projections also include all current development applications and proposals. A local inventory identifying projected development potential is attached. These projections represent the higher end of the potential scale of job and household growth over the next 25 years. 6
General Plan Jobs and Household Projections 2010 2015 Existing 1 Estimate 2040 Estimate Jobs 20,890 22,465 2 25,270 Households 20,279 20,890 3 21,796 1 ABAG Plan Bay Area 2013 2 Marin Economic Forum, utilizing US Census Bureau Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD) and California Employment Development Department Employment & Labor Force data 3 2014 American Community Survey 5-year Estimates Based on the City s detailed analysis (see attached summary) and understanding of the local real estate market, our conclusion is that the higher end of Novato s likely development potential over the next 25 years is most closely aligned with the Low Range of the Draft Jobs and Household Growth Projections for Plan Bay Area 2040 as demonstrated below: PBA 2040 LOW 2040 Growth Forecasts City of Novato Forecast PBA 2040 HIGH Jobs 24,640 25,270 29,520 Households 21,330 21,796 25,860 Sincerely, Robert M. Brown Community Development Director cc: Cynthia Kroll, Chief Economist, Association of Bay Area Governments; Hing Wong, Senior Regional Planner, Association of Bay Area Governments; City Manager, City Council, Planning Commission, City Clerk 7
Job Projections Project/Address Square Feet Category Approved Sq Ft/ Employee Employees Hanna Ranch commercial 34,621 Regional Retail 857 40 Hanna Ranch commercial 10,000 Other Retail/Services 344 29 Hanna Ranch hotel 70,573 Hotel/Motel 1,152 61 516 Hospital Drive (Hamilton Hospital) 36,064 Other Retail/Services 344 105 700 Hangar Avenue Infill (8 Hamilton Landing) 56,000 Low-rise office 288 194 Hanna Ranch - office 21,190 Low-rise office 288 74 In Process 933 C Street (North Bay Children s Center) 6,769 Other Retail/Services 344 20 5400 Hanna Ranch Rd. (McPhail s) 59,600 Light Manufacturing 439 136 Hamilton Fields 50,000 Commercial Recreation 51 7533 and 7537 Redwood Blvd (Atherton Place) 5,630 Other Retail/Services 344 16 Projected Noth Redwood Blvd. Corridor without Water District and Bus Yard Redevelopment (from Focus Area Study) North Redwood Corridor (East of Redwood-South) 130,000 Regional Retail 857 152 Remove existing buildings -17,948 Warehouse 814-22 North Redwood Corridor (East of Redwood-North) 45,000 Regional Retail 857 53 Remove existing buildings -15,407 Warehouse 814-19 Olive/Redwood 17,000 Other Retail/Services 344 49 North, North Redwood Boulevard Corridor (from Focus Area Study) American Assets 30,000 Other Retail/Services 344 87 Campus Properties - Wood Hollow 40,000 Hotel/Motel 1,152 35 Oakview Office 24,000 Low-rise office 288 83 Campus Properties - Black John & Lands of Wright 180,000 Low-rise office 288 625 Buck Institute (approved) 130,000 Research facilities 996 131 PG&E 40,000 Low-rise office 288 139 Birkenstock 135,365 R&D/flex space 344 394 Other Sites Downtown 20,000 Other Retail/Services 344 58 Hamilton (incl. School District master plan) 113,800 Hotel/Motel; Other Retail/Services 1,152/344 198 Other 40,000 Other Retail/Services 344 116 SUBTOTAL 2,805 Existing Jobs 2015 22,465 TOTAL 2040 25,270 8
Household Projections Built 2015 Canyon Green 16 Walnut Meadows/840 McClay Rd 12 Under Construction Fourth St. Homes (Habitat for Humanity) 10 Rudnick Estates 22 Oma Village (Homeward Bound) 14 Approved State Access Senior Apartments (801 State Access) 48 516 Hospital Drive (Hamilton Hospital) 48 Buck Institute 130 In Process Main Gate and "C" (Hamilton Square; 970 C Street ) 31 Landing Court (AHO site #2) 34 1787 Grant Ave. (AHO site #1) 35 7533 and 7537 Redwood Blvd (Atherton Place) 55 7711 Redwood Blvd., Laurel Ridge Senior Apts (AHO #3) 104 Hamilton Field Senior Housing 16 Bahia Heights Subdivision 9 Development Projections North Redwood Blvd. Corridor Focus Area Study 15 Northwest Quadrant neighborhood 10 Multi-family housing (including Housing Element sites) 115 Mixed Use in Downtown (Housing Element sites) 70 Senior assisted living units 60 Miscellaneous single family 30 Miscellaneous second units 60 Total New Housing Units 2040 944 Less 4% Vacancy Rate (38) Total New Households 2040 906 Existing Households 2015 20,890 TOTAL HOUSEHOLDS 2040 21,796 9
June 13, 2016 922 Machin Avenue Novato, CA 94945 415/899-8900 FAX 415/899-8213 www.novato.org Mayor Pat Eklund Mayor Pro Tem Denise Athas Councilmembers Pam Drew Josh Fryday Eric Lucan Interim City Manager Cathy Capriola Miriam Chion Director of Planning and Research Association of Bay Area Governments Bay Area Metro Center 375 Beale Street San Francisco, CA 94105-2066 Ken Kirkey Director of Planning Metropolitan Transportation Commission Bay Area Metro Center 375 Beale Street, Suite 800 San Francisco, CA 94105-2066 RE: PBA 2040 Jobs Projections Dear Miriam and Ken: Participants at the June 4 th Plan Bay Area 2040 forum in Marin were provided with community-level household and jobs projections as second round refinements to projections which will be used as the basis of Plan Bay Area 2040. I understand that your staff are now working on modified preferred scenario projections, and wish to provide the City of Novato s initial comments on the June projections and request that the basis for changes in the projections be more fully disclosed to local planning agencies. The housing projections for Novato published in June are relatively consistent with previous estimates, however the recently released jobs projections differ significantly from the 2010 Census, Plan Bay Area 2013 and from the jobs projections provided to cities in October 2015. More importantly, the June jobs projections vary from those contained in the draft General Plan 2035. The following summarizes the wide divergence of the June jobs projections from past ABAG projections and those used in our draft General Plan: PBA 2040 (June 2016) PBA 2040 (Oct. 2015) Base Year 2040 Δ Base Year - 2040 26,400 (2010)?* Main Streets Jobs Growth Forecasts * Data for base year not provided by ABAG Connected Neighborhoods Big Cities 33,900 33,700 33,800 Low High 24,600 28,900 PBA 2013 22,465 (2010) 24,390 GP 2035 22,465 (2015) 25,270 7,300 7,500 jobs (22% inc. over 30 years) n/a 1,925 jobs (8% inc. over 30 years) 2,805 jobs (11% inc. over 35 years) 10
The new jobs forecast for Novato are 17-37% higher than those provided to the City last fall and almost 3 times higher than ABAG s 2013 projections and our draft General Plan (7,400 increase in jobs vs. 2,805 in our draft General Plan). As part of our General Plan update, local planners have utilized numerous data sources and a parcel-by-parcel analysis to project job growth from both approved, in process and anticipated future commercial and industrial development. We project approximately 1.36 million square feet of new commercial/industrial development by 2040 which would yield approximately 2,800 new jobs. Even factoring in full occupancy of all currently vacant office and commercial space (approximately 550,000 square feet) would theoretically yield up to 1,900 additional jobs, for a total increase of 4,700 new jobs in Novato by 2040, which is far less than the 7,300 to 7,500 jobs forecast by ABAG/MTC. It is apparent to us that the anticipated job increase is completely unrealistic in terms of both demand and physical capacity in Novato. In addition, the Base Year (2010) number of 26,400 jobs is approximately 20% higher than the 21,154 Novato workers shown in the 2010 U.S. Census and the 22,465 jobs listed in Plan Bay Area 2013 for the year 2010. ABAG staff stated that two additional data sources were available but were not factored into the revised base year assumption the American Community Survey (2008-2012) which estimated 24,571 jobs in Novato and a custom data run prepared by the State Economic Development Department which computed both employees working for identified businesses as well as the self-employed which estimated 24,700 Novato jobs in 2010. These data sources are at odds with the 2010 jobs figure contained in the June release. According to ABAG staff, the June jobs projections were based strictly on the output of the UrbanSim computer model which yielded an estimate of 26,400 Novato jobs in 2010, although ABAG staff were unable to explain the significant difference (between 1,700 and 1,800 jobs) between the two data sources and the UrbanSim output. To provide meaningful feedback, the City of Novato needs a better understanding of the data that resulted in the substantial increase in assumed local jobs for the 2010 base year, the deviance between UrbanSim outputs and various data sources for the 2010 base year assumption, and the rationale behind the projected increase in jobs by 2040 that is substantially higher than the modeling performed just six months ago. 11
We request that the preferred scenario projections under development take into account and rectify these major deviations between recent and past projections and that a much greater effort be made in explaining the modeling assumptions and results to local planning agencies. Many thanks in advance for your assistance, Bob Brown, AICP Community Development Director 12
October 12, 2016 922 Machin Avenue Novato, CA 94945 415/899-8900 FAX 415/899-8213 www.novato.org Mayor Pat Eklund Mayor Pro Tem Denise Athas Councilmembers Pam Drew Josh Fryday Eric Lucan Interim City Manager Cathy Capriola Miriam Chion Director of Planning and Research Association of Bay Area Governments Bay Area Metro Center 375 Beale Street San Francisco, CA 94105-2066 Ken Kirkey Director of Planning Metropolitan Transportation Commission Bay Area Metro Center 375 Beale Street, Suite 800 San Francisco, CA 94105-2066 RE: PBA 2040 Preferred Scenario Projections Dear Miriam and Ken: At its meeting of October 11, 2016 the Novato City Council authorized the following comments related to the Preferred Scenario: 1. There is concern regarding the substantial adjustment to the 2010 base year number of jobs (a 26% increase from the baseline used in PBA 2013). Although this increase has been explained as having resulted from the use of additional data sources, the shift in base year numbers makes statistical comparisons very difficult between planning documents and renders most local general plans, which are frequently based on ABAG projections, substantially out of compliance with the regional assumptions. As we stated in our July 13, 2016 letter, To provide meaningful feedback, the City needs a better understanding of the data that resulted in the substantial increase in assumed local jobs for the 2010 base year, the deviance between UrbanSim outputs and various data sources for the 2010 base year assumption. Although MTC and ABAG staff have made some attempt to communicate the basis for the change in the baseline numbers, greater efforts at clear communication to local agencies are necessary to fully understand the significant data adjustments. 2. From a regional perspective, the shift away from concentration of jobs and housing in PDAs seems contrary to the plan objectives. Plan Bay Area 2013 allocated 80% of households into PDAs and 70% of jobs. Plan Bay Area 2040 lowers these percentages to 75% and 52% respectively. 3. The assumption that additional subsidies will be provided to create affordable housing in PDAs seems very speculative. With the loss of Redevelopment, the ability of local government to subsidize housing production has been drastically reduced. Thank you for the opportunity to provide feedback. Bob Brown, AICP Community Development Director 13
Plan Bay Area 2040 Household Growth Projections by County: 2010-2040 14
Plan Bay Area 2040 Job Growth Projections by County: 2010-2040 15
HOUSEHOLDS Jurisdiction Households 2010 Final PBA 2040 Household Households Forecast 2040 2010 Draft PBA 2040 (Fall 2016) Household Forecast 2040 Households 2010 PBA 2013 Household Forecast 2040 Comparison PBA 2040 to PBA 2013 Forecast Change % Forecast Change Belvedere 930 990 900 1,000 930 970 20 150.0% Corte Madera 3,800 4,300 3,900 4,350 3,790 4,080 210 172.4% Fairfax 3,400 3,700 3,400 3,550 3,380 3,620 60 125.0% Larkspur 5,900 6,400 5,850 6,300 5,910 6,450-40 92.6% Mill Valley 6,100 6,400 5,900 8,150 6,080 6,540-160 -65.2% Novato 20,300 21,200 20,150 21,350 20,280 21,450-270 -76.9% Ross 800 840 800 900 800 860-20 -66.7% San Anselmo 5,200 5,500 5,200 5,450 5,240 5,530 10 103.4% San Rafael Total 22,800 25,600 22,550 25,950 22,760 26,490-930 -75.1% PDA 1,700 2,600 1,650 2,750 2,420 3,830-510 -63.8% Sausalito 4,100 4,400 4,150 4,500 4,110 4,470-60 -83.3% Tiburon 3,700 3,900 3,600 3,850 3,730 4,000-70 -74.1% Marin County Unincorporated County Total Total 26,200 28,400 27,450 30,600 26,190 27,580 810 158.3% PDA 1,400 1,800 1,500 2,050 4,290 4,810-120 -76.9% Total 103,200 111,600 103,900 115,900 103,200 112,040-440 -95.0% PDA 3,100 4,400 3,150 4,800 6,710 8,640-630 -67.4% EMPLOYMENT Jurisdiction Employment 2010 Final PBA 2040 Employment Employment Forecast 2040 2010 Draft PBA 2040 (Fall 2016) Employment Forecast 2040 Employment 2010 PBA 2013 Employment Forecast 2040 Comparison PBA 2040 to PBA 2013 Forecast Change % Forecast Change Belvedere 310 320 300 300 430 480-40 -20.0% Corte Madera 6,500 7,200 6,650 7,450 7,940 8,260 380-218.8% Fairfax 1,600 1,700 1,550 1,700 1,490 1,820-230 -30.3% Larkspur 7,500 7,700 7,450 8,800 7,190 7,810-420 -32.3% Mill Valley 6,000 6,600 6,000 6,600 5,980 6,790-210 -74.1% Novato 26,400 28,300 26,400 29,500 20,890 24,390-1600 -54.3% Ross 360 380 350 400 510 590-60 -25.0% San Anselmo 3,300 3,400 3,300 3,650 3,740 4,360-520 -16.1% San Rafael Total 43,400 49,000 43,300 49,100 37,620 44,960-1740 -76.3% PDA 9,100 10,000 9,000 10,100 8,250 10,480-1330 -40.4% Sausalito 5,200 5,900 5,200 5,800 6,220 7,640-720 -49.3% Tiburon 2,800 2,900 2,850 2,900 2,340 2,690-250 -28.6% Marin County Total 18,400 21,600 17,500 21,350 16,380 19,360 220-107.4% Unincorporated PDA 660 740 650 750 2,260 2,960-620 -11.4% County Total Total 121,800 135,000 120,800 137,600 110,730 129,150-5220 -71.7% PDA 9,700 10,800 9,650 10,850 10,510 13,440-1830 -37.5% 16
J-8 7. 17
18
19
20
21
22