Higher Education and the Future of Oregon

Higher Education and the Future of Oregon Presented to the House Education Committee Salem, Oregon February 13, 2008

Premise: Oregon Needs a More Highly-Educated Citizenry To Meet Global Economic Challenges To Meet Future Workforce Needs To Improve Economic Circumstances and Quality of Life of the State s Citizens 2

Relationship Between Educational Attainment and High Tech Employment 12 High Tech Employment, Low Educational Attainment High Tech Employment, High Educational Attainment CO MA 9 Correlation = 0.76 CA NH Percentage Employment in High Tech Occupations 6 3 WV NV AR KY MS LA IN AL OK TNSC UT OR ID NMAZ TX SD NC FL GA NE PAUS IA MO OH WI ME DE MI ND AK MT WY MN WA NY IL RI KS HI VA VT NJ MD CT Low Tech Employment, Low Educational Attainment Low Tech Employment, High Educational Attainment 0 15 20 25 30 35 40 Percent of Adults Age 25-64 with a Bachelor s Degree or Higher Source: State New Economy Index, U.S. Census Bureau 3

$30,000 Relationship Between Educational Attainment, Personal Income, and Economic Strength High Income, Low Educational Attainment High Income, High Educational Attainment State New Economy Index (2002) Top Tier Middle Tier Low Tier NJ CT $25,000 MD MA Personal Income Per Capita, 2000 $20,000 $15,000 WV AR NV KY LA AL IN TN SC OK NC AZ MO IA ME WY TX SD NM AK ND MS Low Income, Low Educational Attainment DE MI FL US WI OH GA PA OR ID MT UT CA NE IL HI RI NH VA NY WA MN 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% KS VT CO Low Income, High Educational Attainment Percent of Adults Age 25-64 with a Bachelor s Degree or Higher 4

110 Per Capita Personal Income as a Percent of U.S. Average Oregon, 1960-2005 100 100.0 100.3 100.0 99.5 96.1 U.S. Average 96.6 91.8 92.5 94.1 93.3 90 80 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Source: Regional Economic Information System, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Dept. of Commerce 5

Oregon Per Capita Personal Income, 2004 Columbia Clatsop 29,841 to 39,729 28,300 to 29,841 26,953 to 28,300 25,923 to 26,953 21,609 to 25,923 Tillamook Washington Lincoln Yamhill Polk Benton Marion Lane River MultnomahHood Clackamas Linn Wasco Jefferson Deschutes Sherman Gilliam Crook Wheeler Morrow Umatilla Grant Union Baker Wallowa Coos Douglas Harney Malheur Lake Curry Josephine Jackson Klamath Oregon = $32,289 Source: Regional Economic Information System, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce 6

State Workforce and Economy Who s Entering the State s Workforce? The State Workforce and Economy Who s Leaving the State Workforce? Characteristics of In-Migrants Characteristics of the Workforce Characteristics of Out-Migrants Entrants into the Workforce Economic Conditions Retirees Leaving the Workforce Net Gain/Loss Net Gains/Losses Retirement Migration 7

Factors to Consider Changing Nature of the Economy Characteristics of the Workforce > Current > Those Retiring/Leaving > Those Entering The Education Pipeline Migration Patterns 8

Critical Question Is Your State Most in Need of: Workforce Development OR Workplace Development? 9

10 Population Projections Percent Change, 2000-25 93.3 85.8 32.6 24.2 North Dakota West Virginia Ohio Iowa New York Pennsylvania Nebraska South Dakota Louisiana Wyoming Illinois Michigan Mississippi Alabama Connecticut Kansas Massachusetts Rhode Island Indiana Oklahoma Maine Kentucky Missouri Wisconsin New Jersey Montana Vermont New Mexico Arkansas Hawaii United States Minnesota Tennessee South Carolina Delaware Maryland New Hampshire Colorado California Alaska Virginia Oregon Washington Georgia North Carolina Idaho Utah Texas Florida Arizona Nevada 60 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 50 40 30 20 10 0-3.3

Projected Change in Oregon Population by Age and Race/Ethnicity, 2006-25 (in Thousands) 460,437 11 46,409 50,566 38,959 39,939 White African American Hispanic Native American Asian 60,000 40,000 19,347 5,565 8,328 20,208 2,375 5,452 15,677 4,065 2,273 18,814 5,698 877 15,404 672 13,726 3,277 3,072 15,089 20,000 0 0-17 18-24 25-44 45-64 65 and Older -20,000-20,537-40,000-39,896

Percent of Civilian Population Age 25-64 Participating in the Workforce, 2005 85.4 77.8 78.2 67.7 West Virginia Kentucky Alabama Louisiana Mississippi Arkansas Tennessee New Mexico Oklahoma South Carolina Arizona California Florida New York Idaho Michigan Texas Georgia North Carolina Washington United States Ohio Pennsylvania Oregon Indiana Missouri Nevada Hawaii Maine Virginia Utah Illinois New Jersey Delaware Alaska Massachusetts Montana Rhode island Connecticut Maryland Colorado Kansas New Hampshire Wisconsin Wyoming Nebraska Vermont Iowa South Dakota Minnesota North Dakota 12 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 90 60 30 0

Percent of Civilians Age 25-64 Not Participating in the Workforce By Education Attainment, 2005 U.S. Oregon Less than High School 37.0 29.5 High School 24.7 19.2 Some College 21.0 17.0 Associate Degree 17.4 11.1 Bachelor s Degree 16.5 13.5 Graduate/Prof. Degree 13.9 13.3 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) File 13

Educational Attainment and Rank Among States Oregon, 2005 (Percent) Age 18-24 with HS Diploma 80.8% 28th Age 25-64 with HS Diploma 88.9% 25th Age 25-64 with Associate Degree 8.1% 29th Age 25-64 with Bachelor's or Higher 29.2% 20th Age 25-64 with Graduate/Prof. Degree 10.3% 18th 50 40 30 20 10 0 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS 14

Differences in College Attainment (Associate and Higher) Between Younger and Older Adults U.S. and OECD Countries, 2005 60 25 to 34 45 to 54 40 20 0 Source: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Education at a Glance 2007 15 France Spain Denmark Belgium Ireland Norway Korea Japan Canada Hungary Austria Germany Greece Poland New Zealand Switzerland United Kingdom Netherlands Iceland Luxembourg Sweden Finland Australia United States Turkey Czech Republic Italy Slovak Republic Mexico Portugal

60 50 40 30 20 Differences in College Attainment (Associate and Higher) Between Younger and Older Adults U.S., 2005 Age 25-34 Age 45-54 Nevada Arkansas New Mexico Louisiana West Virginia Idaho Texas Oklahoma Kentucky Tennessee Alaska Arizona Alabama Wyoming South Carolina Mississippi Indiana Missouri Oregon Florida California Ohio Maine North Carolina Georgia Michigan Hawaii Montana Delaware United States Utah Kansas Washington Wisconsin Illinois Pennsylvania Rhode Island Vermont Iowa South Dakota Virginia Maryland Colorado Nebraska Connecticut New Hampshire New Jersey North Dakota New York Minnesota Massachusetts Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS 16

Percent of Adults with an Associate Degree or Higher by Age Group Oregon, U.S. and Leading OECD Countries Age 25-34 Age 35-44 Age 45-54 Age 55-64 39.9 37.1 36.7 35.6 36.9 39.5 39.9 39.2 15.5 18.5 24.5 39.3 14.5 21.6 30.2 39.7 27.3 32.0 34.8 39.8 21.9 26.9 33.4 40.6 16.7 21.8 30.4 40.6 24.0 29.9 35.1 40.9 10.0 17.6 35.6 51.0 21.7 38.5 46.6 53.2 36.4 42.5 49.5 53.8 60 50 40 Canada Japan Korea Norway Ireland Belgium Denmark Spain France U.S. Oregon 30 20 10 0 Source: OECD, Education at a Glance 2007 17

Percentage Differences Between Younger Adults (Age 25-34) and Older Adults (Age 45-54) with College Degrees Associate and Higher, 2005 9.4 10.0 6.2 6.3 6.7 6.9 7.5 3.9 4.2 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.9 New Mexico Hawaii Vermont Arizona Alaska Idaho Nevada California Texas Colorado Connecticut Maine Oregon South Carolina Florida Oklahoma Washington 0.1 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.8 2.4 3.0 3.5 3.6 3.8 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3-1.9-1.8-1.7-1.5-1.3-0.8-0.8-0.5 Virginia Wyoming Montana Delaware North Carolina Utah United States Maryland Georgia Alabama Arkansas Michigan New Jersey Tennessee Kansas Missouri Rhode Island Kentucky Louisiana Illinois West Virginia Massachusetts North Dakota Ohio Indiana New Hampshire Mississippi Wisconsin Pennsylvania New York Nebraska Minnesota Iowa South Dakota -6.8-6.6-5.5-5.4-4.5-4.2-3.8-3.7-3.6 12 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS 18 8 4 0-4 -8

Percent of Population Age 25-64 with an Associate Degree or Higher, 2006 19 49.2 50 37.2 37.8 40 30 25.0 20 10 0 West Virginia Arkansas Louisiana Mississippi Nevada Kentucky Tennessee Alabama Oklahoma Indiana Texas South Carolina Ohio Missouri Wyoming Idaho New Mexico Arizona Alaska Georgia Michigan North Carolina Florida Pennsylvania Delaware Maine United States Wisconsin Oregon Iowa California South Dakota Montana Kansas Utah Illinois Nebraska Rhode Island Washington Virginia North Dakota New York Hawaii New Jersey Vermont Minnesota Colorado New Hampshire Maryland Connecticut Massachusetts Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006 ACS

Percent of Oregon Population Age 25-64 with an Associate Degree or Higher, 2000 Columbia Clatsop 34.5 to 58.7 28.1 to 34.5 24.1 to 28.1 22.7 to 24.1 18.5 to 22.7 Tillamook Washington Lincoln Yamhill Polk Benton Marion Lane River MultnomahHood Clackamas Linn Wasco Jefferson Deschutes Sherman Gilliam Crook Wheeler Morrow Umatilla Grant Union Baker Wallowa Coos Douglas Harney Malheur Lake Curry Josephine Jackson Klamath Oregon = 34.5% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census 20

Percent of Residents Age 25-64 with an Associate Degree Born In-State, 2005 76.8 52.4 39.3 8.8 Nevada Alaska Arizona Florida Wyoming Colorado Delaware Maryland Virginia New Hampshire Oregon Idaho Georgia Washington New Mexico California Montana Oklahoma New Jersey Vermont Texas Hawaii Tennessee Arkansas State Average South Carolina North Carolina Connecticut Utah Kansas South Dakota Missouri Maine Rhode island West Virginia Nebraska Alabama Mississippi New York Kentucky Illinois Indiana Louisiana Massachusetts Minnesota North Dakota Wisconsin Ohio Iowa Michigan Pennsylvania Source: 2005 ACS 21 80 60 40 20 0

Percent Educational Attainment of Population Age 25-64 By Race/Ethnicity Oregon, 2005 50 40 45.3 34.3 White Non-Hispanic Black Non-Hispanic Hispanic 30 25.1 25.9 23.4 28.4 20 17.9 20.0 10 7.2 11.1 8.8 9.2 12.9 6.1 10.5 6.6 3.6 3.7 0 Less than High-School High School Some College Associate Bachelor's Graduate/ Professional Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS PUMS File 22

The Student Pipeline 23

Student Pipeline, 2004 100 80 91.3 69.7 72.4 Best Performing State United States Oregon 60 57.3 40 20 38.8 32.9 42.0 26.9 21.9 27.3 18.4 15.0 42.3 29.7 28.5 0 Of 100 9th Graders, How Many Graduate from High School Directly Enter College Enroll in Second Year Graduate Within 150% of Program Time Are Age 25-44 with a Bachelor's Degree Source: NCES Common Core Data 2004; Tom Mortenson, Postsecondary Education Opportunity; NCES, IPEDS Fall 2004 Retention Rate File and Fall 2003 Enrollments, 2004 Graduation Rates; U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS 24

Oregon Public High School Graduates by Race/Ethnicity, 1991-2005 (Actual) and 2005-2022 (Projected) 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2011-12 2010-11 2009-10 2008-09 2007-08 2006-07 2005-06 2004-05 2003-04 2002-03 2001-02 2000-01 1999-00 1998-99 1997-98 1996-97 1995-96 1994-95 1993-94 1992-93 1991-92 2021-22 2020-21 2019-20 2018-19 2017-18 2016-17 2015-16 2014-15 2013-14 2012-13 Public Total White Non-Hispanic Minority Source: Western Interstate Higher Education Commission (WICHE) 25

College-Going Rates First-Time Freshmen Directly Out of High School as a Percent of Recent High School Graduates, 2004 68.8 55.5 45.5 42.6 Utah Washington Vermont California Alaska Oregon Idaho Tennessee Arizona Maine Hawaii Texas Missouri Ohio Oklahoma West Virginia Florida Delaware Louisiana Nevada Illinois New Hampshire United States Rhode Island Arkansas Kentucky Virginia Colorado Montana Wisconsin Maryland Michigan Wyoming Pennsylvania Nebraska Mississippi Alabama Connecticut Kansas New Mexico Iowa Indiana New Jersey Massachusetts Georgia North Carolina Minnesota South Carolina North Dakota New York South Dakota 75 26 Source: Tom Mortenson, Postsecondary Opportunity (2004 data update 02-06-07) 50 25 0

Percent of 2005-06 High School Graduates Enrolling Full-Time by County of Origin, Fall 2006 27 31.3 23.8 4.2 4.5 5.5 6.7 7.1 7.1 7.6 8.7 8.8 8.9 9.0 9.4 10.0 10.0 10.1 10.1 10.2 10.6 11.1 11.5 11.5 11.9 13.0 13.4 14.5 14.7 15.0 15.3 15.6 15.7 16.9 16.9 18.8 19.4 Union Harney Columbia Jefferson Morrow Grant Lake Gilliam Sherman Lincoln Yamhill Klamath Clackamas Wallowa Crook Hood River Washington Jackson Marion Curry Baker Multnomah Oregon Wasco Deschutes Tillamook Josephine Umatilla Lane Benton Polk Malheur Linn Douglas Clatsop Coos Source: Oregon Department of Community Colleges and Workforce Development, Oregon Dept. of Education 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0

Percent of 2005-06 High School Graduates Enrolling Full- and Part-Time by County of Origin, Fall 2006 28 37.6 37.8 6.6 8.7 9.0 9.5 10.3 11.4 11.6 11.8 13.0 13.5 14.5 14.8 15.7 15.8 17.0 17.3 17.7 18.0 18.8 19.3 19.6 20.6 21.0 21.9 22.5 23.1 23.3 26.4 27.5 27.5 28.4 28.6 30.1 31.8 Union Gilliam Morrow Grant Jefferson Lake Columbia Sherman Wallowa Harney Lincoln Curry Clackamas Yamhill Baker Hood River Klamath Washington Marion Crook Umatilla Multnomah Wasco Oregon Tillamook Lane Malheur Deschutes Benton Linn Douglas Josephine Polk Clatsop Jackson Coos Source: Oregon Department of Community Colleges and Workforce Development, Oregon Dept. of Education 40 30 20 10 0

Associate Degrees Awarded per 100 High School Graduates Three Years Earlier, 2004 47.7 25.5 23.4 12.6 Louisiana Connecticut Alaska Delaware Maine Maryland Montana New Jersey Vermont Arkansas Texas Wisconsin West Virginia Tennessee Georgia Massachusetts Ohio Pennsylvania Virginia Idaho Nebraska Missouri Nevada Michigan Alabama Indiana Kentucky New Mexico Oklahoma South Carolina Illinois North Dakota United States New Hampshire Minnesota Colorado Kansas Oregon South Dakota California North Carolina Arizona Hawaii Utah Mississippi Iowa New York Rhode Island Washington Wyoming Florida 50 29 Source: NCES-IPEDS Completions Survey, WICHE 40 30 20 10 0

Three-Year Graduation Rates at Two-Year Colleges, 2005 (Percent) 63.1 29.3 25.3 13.3 Delaware New Jersey South Carolina Michigan Connecticut Maryland Rhode Island Texas Massachusetts Mississippi North Carolina New Mexico Hawaii Alabama Arkansas Virginia Kentucky New York Illinois Oregon Vermont Indiana Oklahoma Georgia Ohio Idaho United States Louisiana Tennessee New Hampshire West Virginia Iowa Missouri Minnesota North Dakota Maine Washington Wisconsin Kansas Montana Nebraska Nevada Florida Colorado Pennsylvania Utah California Arizona Wyoming Alaska South Dakota 70 60 30 Source: NCES, IPEDS Graduation Rate Survey 50 40 30 20 10 0

Bachelor s Degrees Awarded per 100 High School Graduates Six Years Earlier, 2004 97.4 55.8 51.8 21.2 Alaska Wyoming Idaho Arkansas New Jersey New Mexico Nevada Texas Mississippi Kentucky West Virginia Maine Hawaii California Illinois South Carolina Louisiana Ohio Minnesota Washington South Dakota Oklahoma Alabama Montana Maryland Wisconsin Connecticut United States Tennessee Virginia Michigan Nebraska Georgia Kansas Iowa Oregon Indiana North Dakota Missouri Pennsylvania Florida Vermont Utah North Carolina New Hampshire Arizona New York Colorado Delaware Massachusetts Rhode Island 100 31 Source: NCES-IPEDS Completions Survey, WICHE 75 50 25 0

Six-Year Graduation Rates at Four-Year Colleges, 2005 (Percent) 67.7 55.4 55.8 20.3 Alaska Nevada New Mexico Hawaii Louisiana Montana Arkansas West Virginia Oklahoma Idaho Kentucky Utah South Dakota Georgia Alabama North Dakota Tennessee Mississippi Texas Kansas Colorado Florida Missouri Ohio Indiana Arizona Nebraska Michigan Oregon United States New York South Carolina Maine Wyoming Minnesota North Carolina Wisconsin Illinois New Jersey Vermont Virginia California Connecticut New Hampshire Washington Iowa Pennsylvania Rhode Island Maryland Delaware Massachusetts 70 60 32 Source: NCES, IPEDS Graduation Rate Survey 50 40 30 20 10 0

Net Migration by Degree Level and Age Group Oregon 22- to 29-Year-Olds 30- to 64-Year-Olds 11,109 Less than High School 15,366 7,024 High School 13,238 7,962 Some College 11,904 2,928 Associate 6,126 10,467 Bachelor s 13,774 4,090 Graduate/Professional 11,482 43,580 Total 71,890 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 0 25,000 50,000 75,000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census; 5% PUMS Files 33

34 Migration Rate* of College-Educated Residents Age 22-64 Associate and Higher, 1995-2000 203.0 North Dakota Iowa South Dakota West Virginia Louisiana Wyoming Montana Nebraska Alaska Pennsylvania Oklahoma Indiana Utah Mississippi Wisconsin Ohio New York Kansas Rhode Island Vermont Hawaii Alabama 3.0 8.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 18.0 20.0 23.0 31.0 33.0 36.0 38.0 40.0 44.0 48.0 52.0 53.0 55.0 58.0 61.0 70.0 75.0 81.0 97.0 100.0 103.0 127.0-53.0-51.0-46.0-45.0-44.0-25.0-24.0-24.0-18.0-16.0-16.0-12.0-11.0-8.0-6.0-6.0-6.0-5.0-3.0-3.0-2.0 New Mexico Michigan Illinois Missouri Kentucky Connecticut Arkansas Maine Massachusetts Minnesota Delaware New Hampshire New Jersey Idaho Tennessee Maryland South Carolina California Virginia Texas Washington Oregon North Carolina Colorado Georgia Florida Arizona Nevada -103.0 240 180 * Per 1,000 residents age 22-64 with college degrees. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, PUMS (based on 2000 Census) 120 60 0-60 -120

Oregon Net Migration of College Degree Holders Age 22-29 by Occupation, 1995 to 2000 Primary, Secondary & Special Education Teachers Computer Specialists Engineers Postsecondary Teachers Information & Record Clerks Other Office & Administrative Support Counselors, Social Workers, Other Community/Soc. Svc. Specialists Other Personal Care & Service Workers Retail Sales Other Management Occupations Supervisors, Sales Food & Beverage Serving Lawyers, Judges, & Related Workers Other Teachers & Instructors Business Operations Specialists Other Production Occupations Health Diagnosing & Treating Practitioners Secretaries & Administrative Assistants Drafters, Engineering, & Mapping Technicians Building Cleaning & Pest Control 366 365 360 355 352 351 329 328 526 522 624 615 595 676 894 890 859 756 1,179 1,276 0 250 500 750 1,000 1,250 1,500 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census 5% PUMS File 35

Oregon Net Migration of College Degree Holders Age 30-64 by Occupation, 1995 to 2000 Health Diagnosing & Treating Practitioners Other Management Occupations Engineers Primary, Secondary & Special Education Teachers Computer Specialists Postsecondary Teachers Counselors, Social Workers, Other Community/Soc. Svc. Specialists Financial Specialists Retail Sales Media & Communication Workers Business Operations Specialists Advertising, Mktg., Promotions, Public Relations, Sales Managers Other Office & Administrative Support Information & Record Clerks Supervisors, Sales Art & Design Other Sales & Related Workers Other Installation, Maintenance & Repair Occupations Material Recording, Scheduling, Dispatching & Distributing Construction Trades 522 521 504 409 524 403 332 750 721 635 619 569 933 930 1,116 1,074 1,317 1,626 2,201 3,333 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census 5% PUMS File 36

Migration Rate* of Residents Age 22-64 with Less than a High School Diploma, 1995-2000 240 130 142 143 94 95 96 99 103 104 105 106-3 -1-46 West Virginia Louisiana Ohio Alaska Hawaii Pennsylvania South Dakota Maine Montana Mississippi Alabama California New York Kentucky New Hampshire Missouri Michigan New Mexico Indiana Maryland Illinois Tennessee Wisconsin Virginia South Carolina Massachusetts Arkansas New Jersey Idaho Oklahoma Iowa Connecticut Rhode Island Texas Washington Delaware North Carolina Minnesota Florida Nebraska Kansas Georgia Oregon Utah Arizona Colorado Nevada * Per 1,000 residents age 22-64 with less than a high school diploma. 150 100 37 Source: State Higher Education Officers (SHEEO) 50 0 Vermont North Dakota Wyoming 8 11 12 17 20 22 25 25 26 29 32 33 35 37 37 38 38 39 45 46 49 51 52 54 56 57 61 63 64 64 71 73 76 76 77-50

States Ability to Produce Graduates vs. Ability to Keep and Attract Graduates 350 280 Low Production, Importer of Capital NV High Production, Importer of Capital Migration Rate of Residents Age 22-29 with a College Degree 210 140 70 0-70 -140-210 -280-350 AK New Economy Index (2002) Top Tier Middle Tier Low Tier NJ TN ME MD TX Low Production, Exporter of Capital SC CT KY High Production, Exporter of Capital 10 20 30 40 50 60 Production of College Graduates (Undergraduate Credentials and Degrees Awarded Per 1,000 Residents Age 18-44 with High School Diploma or Some College but No College Degree) GA OH NM MI AR OK ID ALIN MS LA WV HI OR VA MT NC DE MO PA CA CO FL IL SD NH WI MA MN NY WA NE VT KS WY AZ ND IA UT RI 38

Economy and Innovation Assets 39

Percent of Total Gross State Product by Industry and Comparison to U.S. 30 Oregon 1997 26.9 29.9 25 Oregon 2004 24.2 20 U.S. 2004 18.5 17.5 19.5 20.8 15 12.8 15.3 12.8 12.4 11.9 10 5 2.6 3.3 4.6 4.8 5.6 5.0 4.7 4.6 5.9 7.1 7.5 6.8 6.3 6.4 0 1.0 1.3 0.1 0.1 Agriculture, Mining Construction Manufacturing Transp. & Wholesale Retail Trade Finance, Services Government Forestry, Utilities Trade Insurance, Fishing Real Estate Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 40

Change in Gross State Product, 1997-2004 67.4 41.6 32.6 24.5 Michigan Ohio West Virginia Missouri New Mexico Kentucky Illinois Mississippi Oregon Hawaii Nebraska Connecticut Louisiana Indiana Iowa Alaska Pennsylvania Alabama Arkansas New York Kansas Oklahoma New Jersey North Dakota Wisconsin South Carolina Maine United States New Hampshire Tennessee Massachusetts Minnesota Montana Vermont Georgia Utah Rhode Island Washington North Carolina Texas Maryland South Dakota Colorado California Idaho Delaware Florida Virginia Arizona Wyoming Nevada 41 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 75 50 25 0

Employment in High-Technology Establishments as Share of Total Employment by State, 2004 9.7 6.3 2.4 Wyoming Mississippi Louisiana Nevada Montana Hawaii Kentucky South Carolina Tennessee West Virginia South Dakota Arkansas Iowa Oklahoma Wisconsin Maine North Dakota Ohio Alaska Indiana Florida New York Illinois Missouri Nebraska North Carolina Rhode Island Pennsylvania Michigan Delaware Alabama Georgia Minnesota Oregon Texas Vermont Arizona Idaho New Mexico Utah New Jersey New Hampshire Connecticut Maryland California Kansas Virginia Massachusetts Colorado Washington 10 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Corporation for Enterprise Development (CFED) 42 8 6 4 2 0

Oregon Employment Forecast by Broad Industry, 2006-16 Percent Broad Industry 2006 2016 Change Change Total Nonfarm Employment 1,702,500 1,943,600 241,100 14 Educational and Health Services 205,200 262,700 57,500 28 Professional and Business Services 193,100 232,800 39,700 21 Leisure and Hospitality 165,300 197,500 32,200 19 Construction 100,300 115,000 14,700 15 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 336,200 379,800 43,600 13 Other Services 59,000 66,500 7,500 13 Financial Activities 105,800 117,900 12,100 11 Information 35,000 38,800 3,800 11 Government 286,500 314,200 27,700 10 Manufacturing 206,800 209,100 2,300 1 Natural Resources and Mining 9,200 9,300 100 1 Source: Oregon Employment Department, Workforce and Economic Research 43

Forecast Employment Growth Oregon Industries Adding Most Jobs, 2006-16 Food Services & Drinking Places Ambulatory Health Care Services Admin. & Support Services Professional & Tech. Services Hospitals Nursing & Residential Care Facilities Specialty Trade Contractors Local Government: Education Educational Services General Merchandise Stores 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 Note: Industries are published NAIUCS sub-sectors. Source: Oregon Employment Department, Workforce and Economic Research 44

Forecast Employment Growth Oregon Industries Losing Jobs, 2006-16 Wood Product Manufacturing Computer & Electronic Product Manufacturing Federal Government Paper Manufacturing Logging Primary Metal Manufacturing -2,000-1,500-1,000-500 0 Source: Oregon Employment Department, Workforce and Economic Research 45

46 Projected Percent Change in Occupations Requiring Some Postsecondary Training, 2002-2012 46.3 21.4 16.0 11.0 West Virginia Kansas Pennsylvania North Dakota Connecticut New York Alaska Illinois Michigan Louisiana Nebraska Oregon Ohio Indiana Maine South Carolina Iowa Wyoming Missouri New Jersey Alabama Delaware Rhode Island Oklahoma Vermont South Dakota Wisconsin Washington Minnesota Hawaii Tennessee United States Arkansas Mississippi Montana Kentucky Maryland California Texas North Carolina New Mexico New Hampshire Georgia Florida Arizona Virginia Idaho Colorado Utah Nevada 50 40 30 20 10 0 Note: Some college, Associate, Bachelor s and higher. Source: ACINet, Career InfoNet

Median Earnings by Degree Level, 2005 $90,000 Oregon United States 71,343 80,516 $60,000 $30,000 19,263 20,384 26,499 26,499 30,576 30,576 35,672 36,691 44,844 46,883 50,960 58,094 31,799 33,633 $0 Less than High School High School Some College Associate Bachelor's Masters Doctorate/ Professional All Levels Note: Data represent persons age 18-64 with positive earnings working 35+ hours per week. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS PUMS File 47

Development Report Card for the States, 2006 Oregon C D A Performance Business Vitality Development Capacity Employment Earnings and Job Quality Equity Quality of Life Resource Efficiency Competitiveness/Existing Businesses Entrepreneurial Energy Human Resources Financial Resources Infrastructure Resources Amenity Resources and Natural Capital Innovation Assets WEAKNESSES (Bottom 10 Rank) Rank Measure 42 Business Closings 42 Average Annual Pay Growth 42 Change in Energy Costs 43 Crime Rate 44 Unemployment Rate 46 Change in Average Annual Pay 46 Manufacturing Investment 49 Involuntary Part-Time Employment 49 Job Creation by Start-Up Businesses C D C A A F C C B A A B STRENGTHS (Top 10 Rank) Rank Measure 1 Rate of Recycled Waste 2 Use of Alternative Energy 5 Highway Performance 5 Voting Rate 5 Patents Issued 6 Average Teacher Salary 6 Change in Toxic Release Inventory 6 Heart Disease 6 Greenhouse Gas Emissions 7 Change in Business Closings 8 Net Migration 9 Change in Private Research and Development 10 Infant Mortality 10 Health Professional Shortage Areas 10 Change in Unemployment Rate 10 New Companies Source: Development Report Card for the States, CFED 48

49

Approaches to Achieving Greater Productivity 50

Tackling the Productivity Gap No Single Solution Need for: > Sustained Investment and More Effective Resource Use (Reinvestment) > Change in Institutional Practice and Public Policy Solutions Must Focus on Quality, Cost, and Access Cannot Sacrifice One to Make Progress on Others 51

Approaches to Achieving Greater Productivity Build Cost-Effective Systems Change the Academic Production Function Reduce Demand Each Student Places on the System Reduce Leaks in the Pipeline 52

53

The Policy Tools Clear Direction A Public Agenda Funding/Resource Allocation Accountability Regulation Policy Leadership/Allocation of Decision Authority 54

The Management Cycle in a Public Institution State Planning Institution State State Accountability Resource Allocation Institution Institution 55

The Flow of Funds Economy Tax Policy Income Available State and Local Govt. Funds Higher Education K-12 Corrections Health Care Other Govt. Student Aid Appropriations/Grants Students Tuition Scholarships & Waivers Institutions Gifts Donors Foundations Corporations Student Aid (Restricted) Research and Other Grants (Restricted) Federal Government 56

The Flow of Funds Economy Tax Policy Available State and Local Govt. Funds Income Higher Education Student Aid Appropriations/Grants Students Tuition Scholarships & Waivers Institutions Student Aid (Restricted) Federal Government 57

Finance Policy The Options Institution Focused Student Focused Core Capacity Base-Plus Formulas Investment Funds Tuition and Aid Policy Focused on Revenue Generation Capacity Utilization/ Public Agenda Performance Funding Tuition and Aid Policy Focused on Attainment of Specified Outcomes 58

Alignment of Policies The Policy Audit Determining: The Extent to Which Policies Are > Mutually-Reinforcing, or > In Conflict with Each Other Policies Other than Those Specific to Higher Education that Affect Ability of Institutions to Respond to Public Agenda 59